MUScoop
MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: Not A Serious Person on January 16, 2021, 10:52:03 PM
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The article asks Joe Lundari his opinion about going with less than 68 teams. He says it is a real possibility.
The highlighted part is really interesting, Lundari seems to be suggesting they are also considering going with more than 68 teams (80?)
If the NCAA can’t have 68 teams at its 2021 men’s basketball tournament, bracketologist Joe Lunardi has contingency brackets at the ready
https://www.inquirer.com/college-sports/villanova/pandemic-college-basketball-ncaa-mens-tournament-bracketologist-joe-lunardi-season-uncertainty-20210106.html
“For example, suppose after Jan. 20, the new administration says, ‘We’re going to have a national or some kind of partial lockdown for three weeks or four weeks or six weeks,’” Lunardi said Wednesday. “Some leagues might say, ‘We’re done.’ The NCAA’s intent is absolutely 68, as well it should be, and they need to plan for that. But to be certain that that’s going to happen over two months out is just guessing really.”
Then there’s also the NCAA rule that a team must play a minimum of 13 games against Division I opponents to be considered for tournament selection. As of Wednesday, Duke had played just five games and Akron, the top-rated Mid-American Conference team in the NET rankings, had competed in four.
“I certainly don’t think that the 13-game piece is going to come into play unless there is a major national shutdown,” Lunardi said. “There are more teams closer to 13 than there are to two. So I don’t think that’s going to be an issue.
“If for some unforeseen reason a team can’t get to 13, (NCAA senior vice president of basketball) Dan Gavitt has already said that waivers would be considered. If Duke somehow has 12 games heading into the ACC Tournament, and then the ACC Tournament gets canceled, I think there’s a lot of pressure to have a waiver of some kind.”
Regarding the 80-team bracket, Lunardi said if he headed the committee, and it could be done safely, he’d be inclined to invite more teams to the tournament. The event would begin with 16 opening-round games to be played on the home court of the higher seed. Teams that finished as regular-season and tournament champions in their conference would receive opening-round byes.
“We have fewer ways to evaluate this year,” he said. “In order to capture the pool of good teams with a smaller sample size, a statistician would tell you, you need to increase the field, not decrease it. But look, any tournament is better than no tournament, so we’re just trying to be prepared for as many contingencies as could still happen.”
Because of limited non-conference play this season, you may see a team in the bracket with a losing record, Lunardi said, just another anomaly in an unusual year.
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Wise to have contingency plans.
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Wise to have contingency plans ... as long as they all include Marquette.
FIFY!
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FIFY!
Ah...Wojo gets a waiver.
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While I am sure the NCAA is making such plans, this article doesn't address that.
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Ncaa will see this as an opportunity to add more teams, make more money and create a new normal post pandemic.
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Ncaa will see this as an opportunity to add more teams, make more money and create a new normal post pandemic.
And there is nothing wrong with that.
Look at the NFL. Added a playoff team due to this. The NFL will forever keep that 7th team and should just add an 8th while they are at it. More commercial revenue more game revenue. $$$$$$$$$
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I should say though that it will decrease the excitement of making it.
But in the end it will still be about winning.
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Ah...Wojo gets a waiver.
Whatever it takes.
Ncaa will see this as an opportunity to add more teams, make more money and create a new normal post pandemic.
Yeah, the title of this thread made me think that there was a chance fewer than 68 teams would be selected, but the body of the OP talked mostly about more than 68 going.
It’s all uncharted territory. Whatever they do, I hope appropriate safety protocols are enacted. Beyond that, I’ll be happy to watch however much NCAA tournament that the powers-that-be give us.
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Typically, 100 teams get to play in the NCAA postseason. 68 NCAA, 32 NIT. Ignoring all the CBI/CIT style tournies, I actually get expanding it this year if there's no NIT. Though if they did, I would expand with an eye toward preferencing league champs that didn't win their autobids. That could be a pretty small number as many leagues will likely send their regular season champ and forgo the conference tournament.
Though that said, I actually think they should expand to 72. I think it would make for a better experience if done right and make both high and low majors happy.
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They might very well invite 80 teams on Selection Sunday, and then lose a few to Covid testing before the opening round.
No matter what anyone decides, it's gonna be a strange tourney....
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I do think the ncaa will view this as an opportunity to make a much bolder change.
Why not incorporate the nit? Go to 96 teams?
Everyone gets in?
This is a once in a lifetime pass to go for a money grab when it is needed and people are less focused to block change.
The need to make up money lost is great.
I could also see a power 5 or 6 conference divorce.
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I do think the ncaa will view this as an opportunity to make a much bolder change.
Why not incorporate the nit? Go to 96 teams?
Everyone gets in?
This is a once in a lifetime pass to go for a money grab when it is needed and people are less focused to block change.
The need to make up money lost is great.
I could also see a power 5 or 6 conference divorce.
They aren’t going to expand this year IMO. Too many scheduling issues already holding everything in one place.
No idea what you mean by a “divorce” though.
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They aren’t going to expand this year IMO. Too many scheduling issues already holding everything in one place.
No idea what you mean by a “divorce” though.
I'm guessing he means a tourney just for the power conferences.
I don't see that happening, because you'd miss the shocking upsets that make the opening rounds so special. You would also be excluding the best team in the country this season....
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Ah...Wojo gets a waiver.
Wojo only gets the easy tourney bids.
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They aren’t going to expand this year IMO. Too many scheduling issues already holding everything in one place.
No idea what you mean by a “divorce” though.
Long been rumored the P5 football conferences will break off and have their own basketball tournament so they can keep all the money. Though obviously some of the charm of the NCAA tournament is David upsetting Goliath, which goes away when all the participants are Goliaths.
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Long been rumored the P5 football conferences will break off and have their own basketball tournament so they can keep all the money. Though obviously some of the charm of the NCAA tournament is David upsetting Goliath, which goes away when all the participants are Goliaths.
I don’t think it happens. Too easy to make the ncaa the bogeyman for everything. Of course if they start messing with football money or start REALLY enforcing recruiting rules, that could change.
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You would also be excluding the best team in the country this season....
Which is also top 10 pretty much every season.
I guess such a move would force Gonzaga to join a P5/6 league ... but like Sultan, I don’t see it happening.
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They aren’t going to expand this year IMO. Too many scheduling issues already holding everything in one place.
No idea what you mean by a “divorce” though.
Lunardi also had thought through smaller brackets, down to 48 teams. Don't see that happening either, btu you never know.
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Lunardi also had thought through smaller brackets, down to 48 teams. Don't see that happening either, btu you never know.
He noted a specific reason for this ... If the new administration announced a 4 to 6-week lockdown that meant suspending all games. In that case, he speculated a lot of conferences would end the season and the reason we would have less than 48 teams is that might be all that can qualify.
I don't think this will happen (or I hope it will not happen).
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Which is also top 10 pretty much every season.
I guess such a move would force Gonzaga to join a P5/6 league ... but like Sultan, I don’t see it happening.
Boise State was a top-10 in football 5 out of 6 years and was shut out of the championship. Three straight years they entered the bowl season undefeated. If the P5 could shut Gonzaga and other teams out of their payday, they'd do it in a heartbeat.
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Boise State was a top-10 in football 5 out of 6 years and was shut out of the championship. Three straight years they entered the bowl season undefeated. If the P5 could shut Gonzaga and other teams out of their payday, they'd do it in a heartbeat.
Gonzaga basketball is making the NCAA a LOT more money than, say, DePaul basketball is.
Boise State football is not making more money for the NCAA than even a program like Washington State football is.
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He noted a specific reason for this ... If the new administration announced a 4 to 6-week lockdown that meant suspending all games. In that case, he speculated a lot of conferences would end the season and the reason we would have less than 48 teams is that might be all that can qualify.
I don't think this will happen (or I hope it will not happen).
If it happens there will not be a tournament because you don’t lock down America and turn it back on overnight to the point where one can have a basketball tournament.
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If it happens there will not be a tournament because you don’t lock down America and turn it back on overnight to the point where one can have a basketball tournament.
Agreed.
I also seriously doubt the administration will shut down the country. The time to do that would have been several months ago. At this point, we are way too far along for it to make a serious difference.
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Gonzaga basketball is making the NCAA a LOT more money than, say, DePaul basketball is.
Boise State football is not making more money for the NCAA than even a program like Washington State football is.
We're not talking about the NCAA. And cutting that money away from the Gonzagas of football is exactly why no G5 school will ever play in the currently constructed bowl playoff.
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Boise State was a top-10 in football 5 out of 6 years and was shut out of the championship. Three straight years they entered the bowl season undefeated. If the P5 could shut Gonzaga and other teams out of their payday, they'd do it in a heartbeat.
If college basketball were anywhere near the revenue generator that college football is, that might be the case. But right now I think the P5 don't see much reason to invest in a new association and go through what would undoubtedly be a PR nightmare for the sake of the potential of a few extra $$$.
The NCAA tournament credits are basically a way that the P5 schools earn more $$ than the rest of the schools do anyway. And they have the NCAA around to do their dirty work for them in the meantime.
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I'm not saying it's imminent, but I don't think an eventual money grab would be a surprise, especially if they fully break off in football. Not a 0-5 year concern, but maybe a 10-20 year issue.
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Boise State was a top-10 in football 5 out of 6 years and was shut out of the championship. Three straight years they entered the bowl season undefeated. If the P5 could shut Gonzaga and other teams out of their payday, they'd do it in a heartbeat.
There is nothing the P5 conferences hate as much as sharing money with schools like Gonzaga
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Even so, there would be nearly 300 D1 basketball teams playing for a National Championship and I doubt the P5 schools would get all the top recruits. Not to mention the NBA just limiting themselves to just P5 players. I would have no interest in watching a P5 basketball tournament as I have no interest in watching college football's exclusive club, but I would watch a tournament where Marquette had a chance to win.
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Even so, there would be nearly 300 D1 basketball teams playing for a National Championship and I doubt the P5 schools would get all the top recruits. Not to mention the NBA just limiting themselves to just P5 players. I would have no interest in watching a P5 basketball tournament as I have no interest in watching college football's exclusive club, but I would watch a tournament where Marquette had a chance to win.
While you're right, unfortunately the schools leaving hold by far the largest alumni base plus they hold the largest casual fan base of people who root for them because they're from the state.
I'd root against them but if they left they'd be successful unfortunately.
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This might have already been discussed but what if your upcoming sweet 16 opponent has a Covid issue? I know it's a bubble tourney but still a possibility.
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This might have already been discussed but what if your upcoming sweet 16 opponent has a Covid issue? I know it's a bubble tourney but still a possibility.
If it's a first round game, I suspect they'll replace with one of the 'first four out.' Beyond that, I suspect Covid in the tournament will result in a forfeit. Too many other teams involved to postpone and wait it out.
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It's not a "bubble tourney" either. They are calling it "bubble-like."
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Agreed.
I also seriously doubt the administration will shut down the country. The time to do that would have been several months ago. At this point, we are way too far along for it to make a serious difference.
If they do shut the country down, there will be an open revolt that would make the 1960s look like kindergarten playtime.
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Boise State was a top-10 in football 5 out of 6 years and was shut out of the championship. Three straight years they entered the bowl season undefeated. If the P5 could shut Gonzaga and other teams out of their payday, they'd do it in a heartbeat.
Well, I hope not.
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If they do shut the country down, there will be an open revolt that would make the 1960s look like kindergarten playtime.
Unproveable. Because it's not going to happen.
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If they do shut the country down, there will be an open revolt that would make the 1960s look like kindergarten playtime.
Yeah with the vaccine program underway, there is zero chance we are shutting anything down. I think people see the light at the end of the tunnel even though a lot of people will die in the meantime.
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While you're right, unfortunately the schools leaving hold by far the largest alumni base plus they hold the largest casual fan base of people who root for them because they're from the state.
I'd root against them but if they left they'd be successful unfortunately.
That could change. Most schools in the Big West have large student populations and alumni base. The NCAA would still be a truly national tournament where your small town college has a real shot at the championship. The other 300 D1 alumni bases would dwarf the P5 when you add it all up and there are quite a few state schools not in the P5.
Every team in the P5 would have to play to have 63 game tournament. I guess the regular season and conference championships would be played for seeding.
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That could change. Most schools in the Big West have large student populations and alumni base. The NCAA would still be a truly national tournament where your small town college has a real shot at the championship. The other 300 D1 alumni bases would dwarf the P5 when you add it all up and there are quite a few state schools not in the P5.
No offense but UC-Irvine and Fullerton State aren't driving the television audience no matter how large their alumni bases are.
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No offense but UC-Irvine and Fullerton State aren't driving the television audience no matter how large their alumni bases are.
... and here in New Jersey even with a good team people are not glued to their TV to watch Rutgers.
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... and here in New Jersey even with a good team people are not glued to their TV to watch Rutgers.
Yeah you're right not every state has a connection to to the flagship school. But if UW leaves the vast majority of the WI market is gone. Same with Michigan between MSU & UM. Nebraska lives and breathes for UNL. Texas wouldn't care about anything else if A&M and UTA left. Indiana you'd lose Purdue and IU bases plus the bandwagon Notre Dame fans all over Chicagoland with no association (ahem Heisenberg). Ohio you'd have some diehard fans remand between Cincy, Xavier and Dayton but that's a big loss without tOSU.
Essentially what I'm saying is your average directional school alumnus usually cares more about the state school than their own unless you have a good mid major like Northern IL football or Wichita st bball that gives them something to root for. And because of that you'd lose the vast vast majority of fandom and be better off making a Catholic only tournament (maybe toss in Protestant schools in that league too)
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Yeah you're right not every state has a connection to to the flagship school. But if UW leaves the vast majority of the WI market is gone. Same with Michigan between MSU & UM. Nebraska lives and breathes for UNL. Texas wouldn't care about anything else if A&M and UTA left. Indiana you'd lose Purdue and IU bases plus the bandwagon Notre Dame fans all over Chicagoland with no association (ahem Heisenberg). Ohio you'd have some diehard fans remand between Cincy, Xavier and Dayton but that's a big loss without tOSU.
Essentially what I'm saying is your average directional school alumnus usually cares more about the state school than their own unless you have a good mid major like Northern IL football or Wichita st bball that gives them something to root for. And because of that you'd lose the vast vast majority of fandom and be better off making a Catholic only tournament (maybe toss in Protestant schools in that league too)
...but what would a P5 tournament look like to generate the same revenue as the NCAA?
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...but what would a P5 tournament look like to generate the same revenue as the NCAA?
It wouldn't have to generate the same revenue to make it more profitable for the member institutions.
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...but what would a P5 tournament look like to generate the same revenue as the NCAA?
Good question. There's 65 schools in the power 5 for basketball. If they just take the top 32 they'd have a big crowd watching plus you'd pretty much guarantee no teams with crap records that are 100% non competitive get in.
I mean think about the college basketball ratings thread 900,000k for a B1G game. That's without anything actually on the line.
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I just don't think the P5 will withdraw from the NCAA BB tournament. No need to. Just withdraw from football. No additional administrative loads for non football sports, plus all of the advantages mentioned for holding an inclusive tournament. I believe the last time I heard read about the possibility of P5 withdraws, it was only for football.
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The P5 has basically already withdrawn for football. They use the NCAA for rules and eligibility, but share none of the TV revenue. It is actually the best of both worlds from their point of view.
And this is why ultimately they are never going to leave. The costs to establish the governing apparatus isn't worth the effort of potentially extra basketball money. As long as the football money flows, they are fine with the current arrangement.
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Lundari latest brackets now include at 48 and 16 team bracket because as he says
The truth is there is no way to know at this point what Selection Sunday will bring, so all bases must be covered by.
https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/30302581/the-varying-states-ncaa-tournament-bracketology
Incidentally, in the 68 team bracket, MU is among the "first four out." Interestingly, Michigan State and Duke are among the "last four byes." and UNC is among the "last four in."
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Lundari latest brackets now include at 48 and 16 team bracket because as he says
The truth is there is no way to know at this point what Selection Sunday will bring, so all bases must be covered by.
https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/30302581/the-varying-states-ncaa-tournament-bracketology
Incidentally, in the 68 team bracket, MU is among the "first four out." Interestingly, Michigan State and Duke are among the "last four byes." and UNC is among the "last four in."
He's probably getting paid by content he produces and figures that he can do a bunch of bracket options for once
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With basketball and the P5, teams are already mega-conferences. If the rest are excluded, who else is there to play? Do you play conference foes a third and fourth time to make up for out of conference and holiday tournament games? As it is, these drawn out conference schedules are a bit boring to me.
You can shrink the teams in football because of the fewer number of games and the disparity of competition? Due to the size and money it takes to be competitive in football, that generally makes for a better regular season product. It also leads to a monopoly where the championships are the same concentrated teams that hurt ratings. It won't for basketball where the NCAAT is the profit generator based on ratings.
We'll see though as this shutdown will be a disruptor going forward. A Northwestern playing MSU three times in the regular season, once in the B1G Championship, and then again in March Madness isn't firing me up as a fan.
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With basketball and the P5, teams are already mega-conferences. If the rest are excluded, who else is there to play? Do you play conference foes a third and fourth time to make up for out of conference and holiday tournament games? As it is, these drawn out conference schedules are a bit boring to me.
You can shrink the teams in football because of the fewer number of games and the disparity of competition? Due to the size and money it takes to be competitive in football, that generally makes for a better regular season product. It also leads to a monopoly where the championships are the same concentrated teams that hurt ratings. It won't for basketball where the NCAAT is the profit generator based on ratings.
We'll see though as this shutdown will be a disruptor going forward. A Northwestern playing MSU three times in the regular season, once in the B1G Championship, and then again in March Madness isn't firing me up as a fan.
We also aren't fans of MSU or NW (assuming you don't have an affiliation my bad if you do) so we aren't the target audience anyways. You'd likely see teams doing for "conference challenge" series and then a few exhibition games. Realistically I agree that it would be damaging to the product, they need at least 2 maybe 3 more conferences to make it work. But it is a plausible move and many of those schools have "messed with happy" to chase dollars before
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We also aren't fans of MSU or NW (assuming you don't have an affiliation my bad if you do) so we aren't the target audience anyways. You'd likely see teams doing for "conference challenge" series and then a few exhibition games. Realistically I agree that it would be damaging to the product, they need at least 2 maybe 3 more conferences to make it work. But it is a plausible move and many of those schools have "messed with happy" to chase dollars before
So then CB has become the NBA or NHL where the regular season really doesn't matter and March Madness is washed down until the end then.
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What is going to be interesting this year is to see how they seed the Tournament with it all being in one state. Do they do a true S curve and rank all 68 teams from 1-68? Or do they just keep the exact same selection process and have teams "regionalized?" If it's a true S curve, that will hurt Gonzaga as the West is almost always the weakest bracket, but they'll also be the #1 overall seed so they'll have the worst 2 seed (but best 3 seed). I'd imagine they just try to avoid having conference foes match up in the first two rounds as much as possible and do a true S curve otherwise.
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What is going to be interesting this year is to see how they seed the Tournament with it all being in one state. Do they do a true S curve and rank all 68 teams from 1-68? Or do they just keep the exact same selection process and have teams "regionalized?" If it's a true S curve, that will hurt Gonzaga as the West is almost always the weakest bracket, but they'll also be the #1 overall seed so they'll have the worst 2 seed (but best 3 seed). I'd imagine they just try to avoid having conference foes match up in the first two rounds as much as possible and do a true S curve otherwise.
They announced an answer last night. I didn't click on the article but Katz was talking about it.
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The P5 will not be breaking away in basketball; football, yes, that is happening more with every season - but football, for many, many, many reasons is treated differently.
There are a few reasons why the P5, by themselves, would not split in basketball. Firstly, there are not enough teams to do so. The P5 have 65 teams, with 68 teams now making the tournament. Outside the 65, there would not be enough teams for travel purposes or to have enough OOC matchups to get enough wins to qualify for said tournament. Secondly, it is the money factor. March Madness is one of the richest and most valuable content producers in sports, and the idea/concept of Cinderella/mid-major surprises are what make the entire experience so viewable and enjoyable. The networks, which drive all realignment, will not want to kill its golden goose by risking completing destroying the idea and concept of March Madness. Thirdly, no breakaway will occur by leaving out premier basketball brands and programs like Gonzaga, Villanova, UConn and others (Marquette being one of them) so that they can have more games against the likes of Washington State, TCU, Northwestern, Boston College and Mississppi State, and others.
Having said all of that, I do think a "correction" is on the horizon in the coming years, possibly within the next decade. I can see the P5 (65 teams), the Big East (11), the West Coast Conference (10), the Mountain West (11), the American (11), the A10 (14) and possibly the Missouri Valley (10) forming a new upper tier D1 (possibly without the NCAA), which would have 132 total teams. This takes all of the regular multi-bid conferences, as well as the historical and perceived top single bid (MVC, but this can be replaced by any number of leagues), and includes all of the top basketball brands and programs within D1. The "problem" for March Madness right now for the P5 isn't ensuring they get all of the tournament spots (which would dilute and destroy the product); its sharing the revenue with many one-bid leagues that are comprised mostly of athletic programs that take away funds and revenue from them through March Madness. A breakaway similar to this balances both objectives: it maintains the "underdog" visibility in March Madness by keeping enough non-major programs involved (and still capable of winning), but it trims the excess fat that over half of D1 presently has access to (368 teams) by keeping more of the value and revenue to the top-132 programs. In addition, by officially moving away from the NCAA, there is even more revenue to be kept that all of its responsibilities (NCAA) could fall upon the conferences themselves.
I do think more major schools and athletic departments are growing frustrated with having to share March Madness revenue with the lower D1 schools. I also think, because of COVID, more of the top-half schools will be more willing to make a split if it meant increasing the revenues for themselves. Will be interesting to say the least.
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The P5 will not be breaking away in basketball; football, yes, that is happening more with every season - but football, for many, many, many reasons is treated differently.
There are a few reasons why the P5, by themselves, would not split in basketball. Firstly, there are not enough teams to do so. The P5 have 65 teams, with 68 teams now making the tournament. Outside the 65, there would not be enough teams for travel purposes or to have enough OOC matchups to get enough wins to qualify for said tournament. Secondly, it is the money factor. March Madness is one of the richest and most valuable content producers in sports, and the idea/concept of Cinderella/mid-major surprises are what make the entire experience so viewable and enjoyable. The networks, which drive all realignment, will not want to kill its golden goose by risking completing destroying the idea and concept of March Madness. Thirdly, no breakaway will occur by leaving out premier basketball brands and programs like Gonzaga, Villanova, UConn and others (Marquette being one of them) so that they can have more games against the likes of Washington State, TCU, Northwestern, Boston College and Mississppi State, and others.
Having said all of that, I do think a "correction" is on the horizon in the coming years, possibly within the next decade. I can see the P5 (65 teams), the Big East (11), the West Coast Conference (10), the Mountain West (11), the American (11), the A10 (14) and possibly the Missouri Valley (10) forming a new upper tier D1 (possibly without the NCAA), which would have 132 total teams. This takes all of the regular multi-bid conferences, as well as the historical and perceived top single bid (MVC, but this can be replaced by any number of leagues), and includes all of the top basketball brands and programs within D1. The "problem" for March Madness right now for the P5 isn't ensuring they get all of the tournament spots (which would dilute and destroy the product); its sharing the revenue with many one-bid leagues that are comprised mostly of athletic programs that take away funds and revenue from them through March Madness. A breakaway similar to this balances both objectives: it maintains the "underdog" visibility in March Madness by keeping enough non-major programs involved (and still capable of winning), but it trims the excess fat that over half of D1 presently has access to (368 teams) by keeping more of the value and revenue to the top-132 programs. In addition, by officially moving away from the NCAA, there is even more revenue to be kept that all of its responsibilities (NCAA) could fall upon the conferences themselves.
I do think more major schools and athletic departments are growing frustrated with having to share March Madness revenue with the lower D1 schools. I also think, because of COVID, more of the top-half schools will be more willing to make a split if it meant increasing the revenues for themselves. Will be interesting to say the least.
This upper tier system I could see being attempted. Hope that they find the right line. Would hate to see a Murray State or Western Kentucky get stuck on the wrong side when they have proud traditions in their own right.
My own tangent is that college sports is over saturated with tiers and leagues and should have a bomb taken to it for just state tournaments and then a national tournament. Lots more WI people may root for MU if they're repping WI in the national tournament every year.
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Having said all of that, I do think a "correction" is on the horizon in the coming years, possibly within the next decade. I can see the P5 (65 teams), the Big East (11), the West Coast Conference (10), the Mountain West (11), the American (11), the A10 (14) and possibly the Missouri Valley (10) forming a new upper tier D1 (possibly without the NCAA), which would have 132 total teams. This takes all of the regular multi-bid conferences, as well as the historical and perceived top single bid (MVC, but this can be replaced by any number of leagues), and includes all of the top basketball brands and programs within D1. The "problem" for March Madness right now for the P5 isn't ensuring they get all of the tournament spots (which would dilute and destroy the product); its sharing the revenue with many one-bid leagues that are comprised mostly of athletic programs that take away funds and revenue from them through March Madness. A breakaway similar to this balances both objectives: it maintains the "underdog" visibility in March Madness by keeping enough non-major programs involved (and still capable of winning), but it trims the excess fat that over half of D1 presently has access to (368 teams) by keeping more of the value and revenue to the top-132 programs. In addition, by officially moving away from the NCAA, there is even more revenue to be kept that all of its responsibilities (NCAA) could fall upon the conferences themselves.
I could see something like that happening...in part because the list of DI basketball programs has been steadily expanding. We are currently at around 350, with new schools reclassifying frequently. In recent years, we have seen Merrimack, Bellarmine, Dixie State and Tarleton State jumping or preparing to jump from DII, and St. Thomas is in the process of moving straight from DIII.
Maybe if they limit it to the conferences you listed (or something similar), they could go back to a 32 or 64 team format. The play-in games are just stupid.
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What is going to be interesting this year is to see how they seed the Tournament with it all being in one state. Do they do a true S curve and rank all 68 teams from 1-68? Or do they just keep the exact same selection process and have teams "regionalized?" If it's a true S curve, that will hurt Gonzaga as the West is almost always the weakest bracket, but they'll also be the #1 overall seed so they'll have the worst 2 seed (but best 3 seed). I'd imagine they just try to avoid having conference foes match up in the first two rounds as much as possible and do a true S curve otherwise.
It's a true S-Curve with caveats being made for in-league opponents.
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It's a true S-Curve with caveats being made for in-league opponents.
Thank you. That made the most sense. Which meant it was a coin flip (at best) whether the NCAA would do it that way or not.
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This upper tier system I could see being attempted. Hope that they find the right line. Would hate to see a Murray State or Western Kentucky get stuck on the wrong side when they have proud traditions in their own right.
My own tangent is that college sports is over saturated with tiers and leagues and should have a bomb taken to it for just state tournaments and then a national tournament. Lots more WI people may root for MU if they're repping WI in the national tournament every year.
And they could easily decide to take more conferences too. The whole point would be to eliminate the needless autobids from many conferences that end up taking away perceived revenues from the top half. Conference USA (14) and the Ohio Valley (12) could both in theory come along too, and that still only gets the total number up to 158, which still would take away over half of what is now D1. Or if the new D1 doesn't want to bring along an entire mid-major conference outright, they can organize the MVC or the A10 to take a Murray State or a Western Kentucky or whomever.
Bottom line, any split will not involve the top-65, nor it would only eliminate the bottom-65; any separation would be as close to half as possible for many reasons. The biggest value in separating, whether in football or in basketball, would be for the member schools to keep the entire revenues and not have to share with the NCAA. In 2021, for many reasons, there is little reason for the NCAA to continue to exist. Schools and conferences can do a lot of the administrative work on their own, and create their own committees, with commissioners, that oversee their respective sports. By cutting the total number of teams in half, it makes the oversight considerably less, and allows the membership to incorporate the NIL legislation much more effectively (with 350+ D1 teams now, it is impossible for the NCAA to honestly say they can treat all members and all sports fairly and equitably).
Football will most likely happen first - especially with the influx of new D1 football programs seeking promotion, not to mention conferences attempting to do so as well (WAC and Atlantic Sun). Many schools see the financial incentive of moving to D1 today; unfortunately, as it takes away more of the overall pie, it will only expedite the process of the top brands/conferences separating.
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I have long thought that basketball could use a good amount of fat trimming. Could you imagine the realignment craziness that would happen if it ever actually became a reality. Top programs from the conferences that get left out would be fleeing to try to join one of the mid-major conferences that make the cut. I could see some conferences cutting lower performing programs to make room for top performers from other conferences.
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I have long thought that basketball could use a good amount of fat trimming. Could you imagine the realignment craziness that would happen if it ever actually became a reality. Top programs from the conferences that get left out would be fleeing to try to join one of the mid-major conferences that make the cut. I could see some conferences cutting lower performing programs to make room for top performers from other conferences.
The issue is someone has to lose though. And would you rather be Murray st pretty much alway guaranteed a bid or would you rather be Depaul who can tout a great historical tradition but gets rocked every year. Surely the people who constantly want to move up realize that not everybody is going to come out a winner.
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GW11 -- that is a fascinating possibility, and I thank you for bringing it up (and others for continuing the discussion).
It makes sense that, in the not-too-distant future, something major like this could (and probably should) occur.
Heck, they could even come up with a relegation-type system for the last couple of conferences. If you achieve such-and-such (some pre-determined standard) your league gets to play with the big boys for 2-3 years, replacing conference(s) that didn't meet the standard. Wouldn't that be fun?
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Well, I think the chances are close to 0% of any member of any conference getting booted for another; there will always be additions, but eliminating a member school is a political minefield and very rare in college history. Temple Football got the boot from the Big East years ago, and the amount of steps to get to that point were extraordinary. Should certain programs make the decision to leave select conferences because they are not competitive, because they do not have a similar athletic mission, because they do not provide value, etc? Of course. But no President in their right mind would relinquish the brand association or monetary values of being in a conference with no alternative that offers a similar offering.
Relegation is also very unlikely, as the powers-that-be would never want one of their own and protected members to ever be dropped down due to a lack of competitiveness.
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GW11 -- that is a fascinating possibility, and I thank you for bringing it up (and others for continuing the discussion).
It makes sense that, in the not-too-distant future, something major like this could (and probably should) occur.
Heck, they could even come up with a relegation-type system for the last couple of conferences. If you achieve such-and-such (some pre-determined standard) your league gets to play with the big boys for 2-3 years, replacing conference(s) that didn't meet the standard. Wouldn't that be fun?
A relegation system would be awesome, but I doubt we'll ever see it.
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Well, I think the chances are close to 0% of any member of any conference getting booted for another; there will always be additions, but eliminating a member school is a political minefield and very rare in college history. Temple Football got the boot from the Big East years ago, and the amount of steps to get to that point were extraordinary. Should certain programs make the decision to leave select conferences because they are not competitive, because they do not have a similar athletic mission, because they do not provide value, etc? Of course. But no President in their right mind would relinquish the brand association or monetary values of being in a conference with no alternative that offers a similar offering.
Relegation is also very unlikely, as the powers-that-be would never want one of their own and protected members to ever be dropped down due to a lack of competitiveness.
Oh, I hear ya. I was just spitballin'.
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I think the easiest thing to do is to create a "Division 1+" where conferences are eligible for the larger division if they meet certain attendance and performance standards.
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I think the easiest thing to do is to create a "Division 1+" where conferences are eligible for the larger division if they meet certain attendance and performance standards.
Basically FBS vs FCS?
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Basically FBS vs FCS?
Yep. Or force a bunch of schools back down to D2.
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Lundari latest brackets now include at 48 and 16 team bracket because as he says
The truth is there is no way to know at this point what Selection Sunday will bring, so all bases must be covered by.
https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/30302581/the-varying-states-ncaa-tournament-bracketology
Incidentally, in the 68 team bracket, MU is among the "first four out." Interestingly, Michigan State and Duke are among the "last four byes." and UNC is among the "last four in."
Hes been doing those reduced brackets all year
There was once a time we made the 48 one. Now we gotta get back into the 68