MUScoop
MUScoop => The Superbar => COVID-19 => Topic started by: Hards Alumni on December 22, 2020, 07:12:53 AM
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https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/21/health/new-covid-strain-uk.html
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55388846
https://www.axios.com/covid-19-mutation-uk-england-what-we-know-99ad5c35-51f7-4aab-9a16-ceff8d18ca88.html
I know it was briefly brought up in the main thread, but this may deserve its own thread.
UK may be locked down, but I would be absolutely shocked to find out that this strain hasn't arrived in the US.
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Of course it will. Get the vaccine.
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Of course it will. Get the vaccine.
I'd love to.
Will the vaccines work against the new variant?
Almost certainly yes, or at least for now.
All three leading vaccines develop an immune response against the existing spike, which is why the question comes up.
Vaccines train the immune system to attack several different parts of the virus, so even though part of the spike has mutated, the vaccines should still work.
"But if we let it add more mutations, then you start worrying," said Prof Gupta.
"This virus is potentially on a pathway for vaccine escape, it has taken the first couple of steps towards that."
Vaccine escape happens when the virus changes so it dodges the full effect of the vaccine and continues to infect people.
This may be the most concerning element of what is happening with the virus.
This variant is just the latest to show the virus is continuing to adapt as it infects more and more of us.
A presentation by Prof David Robertson, from the University of Glasgow on Friday, concluded: "The virus will probably be able to generate vaccine escape mutants."
That would put us in a position similar to flu, where the vaccines need to be regularly updated. Fortunately the vaccines we have are very easy to tweak.
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The good news is that our new vaccine platform can change almost as quickly as the virus should it prove to be a major move. The more I read about the mRNA platform, the more impressive it is.
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Viruses almost always mutate. COVID already has several variants. This one being more contagious is simply natural selection, evolution happening before our eyes in real time.
As we ponder this one and watch the frantic race for a vaccine amid the pandemic, know the next one might be worse.
Never stop sciencing.
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Viruses almost always mutate. COVID already has several variants. This one being more contagious is simply natural selection, evolution happening before our eyes in real time.
As we ponder this one and watch the frantic race for a vaccine amid the pandemic, know the next one might be worse.
Never stop sciencing.
Outside of being more lethal, this is the worst possible mutation.
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Agreed. But will this be enough to change those still in denial?
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Agreed. But will this be enough to change those still in denial?
We can always hope, but I doubt it. :(
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Viruses almost always mutate. COVID already has several variants. This one being more contagious is simply natural selection, evolution happening before our eyes in real time.
As we ponder this one and watch the frantic race for a vaccine amid the pandemic, know the next one might be worse.
Never stop sciencing.
You believe in evolution? 8-)
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Duh. Even Pat Robertson can evolve a little.
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I read something yesterday that it will take a number of years not months for the coronavirus to mutate before the vaccine developed is no longer effective.
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Mutations are more virulent, but less contagious. Covid-19 vaccine should give more than adequate protection, hey?
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Mutations are more virulent, but less contagious. Covid-19 vaccine should give more than adequate protection, hey?
The bolded is not true. Mutations are random. They could be more virulent, or less virulent. More contagious, or less contagious.
Usually mutations that are more contagious are selected for, as they lead to increased spread of that strain that eventually dominates over the others.
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UK may be locked down, but I would be absolutely shocked to find out that this strain hasn't arrived in the US.
Sure seems likely it's the same (or similar) one ripping through California right now.
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Sure seems likely it's the same (or similar) one ripping through California right now.
I was going to speculate the same
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"England Strain" sounds like some boiled dish served at a grungy pub in Sunderland.
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As we ponder this one and watch the frantic race for a vaccine amid the pandemic, know the next one might be worse.
Never stop sciencing.
I couldn't help but think of the below when I read this. Transciprtion from 19:18 into this podcast:
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/druid-hills/id1119389968?i=1000501944194
The lone success story in the pandemic thus far has been medical science. We have vaccines available just over a year after the pandemic started. That's bananas. But we shouldn't draw the lesson from this that science is fast. Science only looks fast. It's actually really slow. The quote/unquote sudden development usually has 20 years of work behind it. And you can't order up progress. Because sometimes the magic happens only at the end of a wandering serendipitous journey that may have looked like folly before it became a success. And what all this means is that progress doesn't come from ideas. It comes from places... where smart people have the time and freedom to wander around and make mistakes and pursue interesting ideas that one day may end up saving your life.
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I couldn't help but think of the below when I read this. Transciprtion from 19:18 into this podcast:
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/druid-hills/id1119389968?i=1000501944194
The lone success story in the pandemic thus far has been medical science. We have vaccines available just over a year after the pandemic started. That's bananas. But we shouldn't draw the lesson from this that science is fast. Science only looks fast. It's actually really slow. The quote/unquote sudden development usually has 20 years of work behind it. And you can't order up progress. Because sometimes the magic happens only at the end of a wandering serendipitous journey that may have looked like folly before it became a success. And what all this means is that progress doesn't come from ideas. It comes from places... where smart people have the time and freedom to wander around and make mistakes and pursue interesting ideas that one day may end up saving your life.
It also helps that the work was properly funded this time around. Imagine what we could accomplish as a species if we'd stop blowing each other up with increasingly expensive weapons.
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Imagine what we could accomplish as a species if we'd stop blowing each other up with increasingly expensive weapons.
Or made consistent funding of R & D a higher priority than stock options, dividends, mansions, and yachts.
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It also helps that the work was properly funded this time around. Imagine what we could accomplish as a species if we'd stop blowing each other up with increasingly expensive weapons.
It's amazing what the US can accomplish in a short amount of time with proper funding and will - this vaccine, the apollo program, etc.
Imagine everything we could do that would greatly benefit our society instead of the crap burger we deal with thanks to Washington politics.
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It's amazing what the US can accomplish in a short amount of time with proper funding and will - this vaccine, the apollo program, etc.
Imagine everything we could do that would greatly benefit our society instead of the crap burger we deal with thanks to Washington politics.
This wasnt really a US effort. It was more of a global effort led by industry.
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Here is an initial summary of a recently published article on the mutation.
https://twitter.com/billhanage/status/1341857733633581063?s=21 (https://twitter.com/billhanage/status/1341857733633581063?s=21)
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Second new strain, this one from SA (also detected in the UK).
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/23/uk-to-widen-covid-lockdowns-as-new-strain-from-south-africa-found
"This new variant [from South Arica] is highly concerning, because it is yet more transmissible, and it appears to have mutated further than the new variant has been discovered in the UK"
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https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/21/health/new-covid-strain-uk.html
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55388846
https://www.axios.com/covid-19-mutation-uk-england-what-we-know-99ad5c35-51f7-4aab-9a16-ceff8d18ca88.html
I know it was briefly brought up in the main thread, but this may deserve its own thread.
UK may be locked down, but I would be absolutely shocked to find out that this strain hasn't arrived in the US.
Can we really call this the England strain?
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Can we really call this the England strain?
I fully realize that this is bait, but I'll continue because it will be fun.
That is where it was version of Covid19 was detected, so yes, it is an English variant of the virus.
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I fully realize that this is bait, but I'll continue because it will be fun.
That is where it was version of Covid19 was detected, so yes, it is an English variant of the virus.
But golly, that’s not what you said.
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Datz racist, aina?
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England’s fault.
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My ancestors came mostly from England.
This won't get me deported, will it?
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Probably knot under da Harris administration, aina?
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My ancestors came mostly from England.
This won't get me deported, will it?
I’d be looking over my shoulder on Jan 21st if I were you.
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Probably knot under da Harris administration, aina?
Yawn.
We should be so lucky.
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Datz racist, aina?
Yes, it is. Queen Liz is kinda pissed.
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Yes, it is. Queen Liz is kinda pissed.
Lilibet
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Yes, it is. Queen Liz is kinda pissed.
And she's a tough one. Been running roughshod over the line of succession for decades....
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You guys are so predictable. lol
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Seriously, the epidemiology of this strain looks frightening. England has had some pretty strong closures and lockdowns, but the number of new cases is skyrocketing. Even if the severity is comparable to the current strain, the number of new cases could absolutely devastate healthcare systems here if it spreads at a similar rate.
And it has been detected, among other states, in California…the absolute last place where we need to strain the healthcare system further
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Seriously, the epidemiology of this strain looks frightening. England has had some pretty strong closures and lockdowns, but the number of new cases is skyrocketing. Even if the severity is comparable to the current strain, the number of new cases could absolutely devastate healthcare systems here if it spreads at a similar rate.
And it has been detected, among other states, in California…the absolute last place where we need to strain the healthcare system further
Do we know how prevalent this mutation is in the US? I know it has been 'discovered' in those places, but I was reading that we don't really do surveillance on this like the UK and some other countries do.
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Do we know how prevalent this mutation is in the US? I know it has been 'discovered' in those places, but I was reading that we don't really do surveillance on this like the UK and some other countries do.
No, we don’t. We haven’t been doing DNA ‘fingerprinting’ on very many samples, so it’s hard to tell how prevalent it already is. That being said, now that it is here, the evidence indicates that it will spread much more quickly than the previous strain.
And since England’s numbers have been going up much more dramatically than ours even though they have more strict measures, one can only surmise that it is just getting started here. An assumption to be sure, but it seems sound based on the numbers.
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Scotland announced today that everyone is at a stay at home order through the end of January. A lot of talk that Boris Johnson is going to announce the same for England this evening.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-55531069
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Scotland announced today that everyone is at a stay at home order through the end of January. A lot of talk that Boris Johnson is going to announce the same for England this evening.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-55531069
I was watching BBC World News last night, and they showed part of Johnson's press conference from earlier in the day. His tone was notably more somber than it has been throughout the pandemic. A lot of 'worst is yet to come' stuff. :(
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Now found in NY, on top of previous reports in CO, CA and FL.
The most heavily-populated areas in the country + a more contagious strain = going from bad to worse.
:(
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No, we don’t. We haven’t been doing DNA ‘fingerprinting’ on very many samples, so it’s hard to tell how prevalent it already is. That being said, now that it is here, the evidence indicates that it will spread much more quickly than the previous strain.
And since England’s numbers have been going up much more dramatically than ours even though they have more strict measures, one can only surmise that it is just getting started here. An assumption to be sure, but it seems sound based on the numbers.
It's pretty embarrassing how far behind the rest of the world we are on things like this.
At this point if a new terrible strain (or new virus) showed up in the US, we wouldn't even know until another country figured out it spread there.
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Now found in NY, on top of previous reports in CO, CA and FL.
The most heavily-populated areas in the country + a more contagious strain = going from bad to worse.
:(
It could be completely wrong, but my hypothesis is that this is already a large number of our cases. To Forgetful's point, we may have exported it for all we know.
If my tinfoil hat conspiracy is wrong, you are right that its going to get worse....
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It could be completely wrong, but my hypothesis is that this is already a large number of our cases. To Forgetful's point, we may have exported it for all we know.
If my tinfoil hat conspiracy is wrong, you are right that its going to get worse....
It certainly is more prevalent than the handful of cases we have detected. Just another thing the US is behind on.
But is it a large number? I’d bet against it because the trajectory of new cases in the UK has gone up dramatically faster than it has gone up here. I hope I am wrong.
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It could be completely wrong, but my hypothesis is that this is already a large number of our cases. To Forgetful's point, we may have exported it for all we know.
If my tinfoil hat conspiracy is wrong, you are right that its going to get worse....
Has there been any info/findings on antibodies related to this new strain? As I mentioned in another thread, my GF had COVID in early July and just got an antibody test last month that showed both IgM and IgG antibodies, implying that she had another COVID infection in the last 6-8 weeks prior to that test (likely when I had my asymptomatic infection that gave me antibodies). I wonder if perhaps the new strain could be the reasoning for it. But that’s a largely unfounded speculation
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Natural immunity can successfully fight the new mutation.
https://twitter.com/erictopol/status/1348027161681092608?s=21 (https://twitter.com/erictopol/status/1348027161681092608?s=21)
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https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coronavirus/Japan-finds-new-COVID-virus-strain-distinct-from-UK-and-Africa-types
Japan strain (found in new arrivals from Brazil) is different from both the England and Africa strains.
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Shouldn’t it be the Brazil strain then?
In the article, it also references that at least two people picked up the British strain after dining with a person who was supposed to be in quarantine after returning from the UK, but instead dined with ten people. They should do like Australia and NZ-you quarantine in a designated hotel, to stop you from doing things exactly like this guy did.
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I though naming viruses feom the origin point was racist?
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I though naming viruses feom the origin point was racist?
It certainly is when you have racist intent.
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I though naming viruses feom the origin point was racist?
These aren't different virus', they're different strains. The initial strain of sars-cov-2 / covid-19 was from Wuhan/China. So the virus is sars-cov-2 / covid-19 , and the first strain we knew of was the Wuhan strain. But the virus is still covid-19.
But you know all that, you're just trying to defend the indefensible.
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Passive aggressive trolling aside, the country naming of mutations is not very accurate since all countries are not doing surveillance. They could come from anywhere. I understand why early on people identify it with a place (as also we did with China until the virus was named).
No one is using the term to say it’s the UKs fault and more and more the common convention when referenced is the letter and number of the mutation (as it should be).
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Passive aggressive trolling aside, the country naming of mutations is not very accurate since all countries are not doing surveillance. They could come from anywhere. I understand why early on people identify it with a place (as also we did with China until the virus was named).
No one is using the term to say it’s the UKs fault and more and more the common convention when referenced is the letter and number of the mutation (as it should be).
Right. Unlike when Trump was using “China virus” after it already had its name to try to blame his failure to lead us through the pandemic on China (also after thanking President Xi, on behalf of the American people, for their great job in handling the virus), nobody using “British strain” is blaming Brittin for letting it spread throughout the USA. Nobody is filling Yelp reviews of British restaurants throughout the USA with racist epithets. Nobody is threatening British people because they brought the virus over.
But like always, Ziggy thinks the things are the same. Or his faux outrage will lead the meat eaters to join in on the faux outrage somewhere down the line.
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I made my post because it was referred to as a Japanese strain when it came from Brazil. I suppose if there are serious variants, they have to be described in a shorthand way somehow.
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I made my post because it was referred to as a Japanese strain when it came from Brazil. I suppose if there are serious variants, they have to be described in a shorthand way somehow.
The UK strain is likely not from the UK, they just have good testing and detected it there so it's the UK strain. Badge of honor, honestly.
The US isn't catching any new strains/mutations because our testing sucks donkey butt - https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/28/us-can-miss-covid-strain-because-the-holes-in-our-net-are-too-wide.html
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JFC, lighten up. It was a joke.
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JFC, lighten up. It was a joke.
Hilarious.
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JFC, lighten up. It was a joke.
Jokes usually require humor. 8-)
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I have to say that this chart makes the new mutation look pretty frightening.
https://twitter.com/drtomfrieden/status/1348761507480416257?s=21 (https://twitter.com/drtomfrieden/status/1348761507480416257?s=21)
However WHO leader thinks it’s more behavioral (he’s from Ireland)
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/covid-19-surge-due-to-increased-social-mixing-says-who-s-mike-ryan-1.4455748 (https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/covid-19-surge-due-to-increased-social-mixing-says-who-s-mike-ryan-1.4455748)
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I have to say that this chart makes the new mutation look pretty frightening.
https://twitter.com/drtomfrieden/status/1348761507480416257?s=21 (https://twitter.com/drtomfrieden/status/1348761507480416257?s=21)
However WHO leader thinks it’s more behavioral (he’s from Ireland)
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/covid-19-surge-due-to-increased-social-mixing-says-who-s-mike-ryan-1.4455748 (https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/covid-19-surge-due-to-increased-social-mixing-says-who-s-mike-ryan-1.4455748)
I would love to think he’s right about the behavioral explanation, but the dramatic spike occurred not terribly long after the new strain was discovered. And more sociable behavior in the UK also wouldn’t explain why the numbers were flat there for so long.
Now that the strain has been detected in a number of states, it will be interesting to see what happens over the next several weeks.