MUScoop
MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: auburnmarquette on April 16, 2018, 01:00:17 AM
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Just posted updated ratings for each team and players that still might leave for the NBA from each squad on this Cracked Sidewalks piece: http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2018/04/updating-team-projections-after-nba.html
Since tables do not work well here, particularly listing 351 teams in order with potential NBA departures by all relevant teams, I'll just list where the Big East rosters are at this point nationally and those of you interested in the complete table and explanation can click on Cracked Sidewalks:
3) Villanova, 26) Marquette, 29) Creighton, 36) Providence, 40) Xavier, 49) St. John's, 53) Butler, 87) Georgetown, 125) DePaul, 151) Seton Hall.
As I've said, I believe Joseph Chartouny (best returning defensive guard in country) or Joe Cremo (3rd best overall available behind two 5-stars) gives MU a legit Sweet 16 shot.
Every time a team signs a new recruit, JUCO or graduated senior, that player's value will be added to their total (currently all those potential players are in the database and google sheet are listed with the team "available." until they sign. Once we get through the NBA draft we will be able to finalize who drops out of the database or is indeed back with the team and can lose the "Villanova /could go NBA" note.
Access the national story in the photo can be clicked on through the Cracked Sidewalks story.
https://tinyurl.com/y9mr9uu4 is the google sheet with all the players so feel free to mark in column A for any mistakes or updates you know are needed to www.valueaddbasketball.com so I can keep these projections up to date.
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Unfortunately I am unable to open the link in China, but have to admit, encouraging news. That is higher than I expected, but trust your work. I 100% believe a proven PG is essential for next years success.
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Good stuff Auburn. I didn't do a deep look but made a few edits on a few top teams that I noticed
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A few surprises. Kansas seems really, really low for a team likely to start the season no lower than 3 in the rankings and quite possibly #1. Louisville (86) and Michigan (42) also surprised me as teams we may end up seeing in November.
The Big East still looks strong despite losing a lot. Likely looking at 6-7 bids if this is accurate, though I was shocked to see Seton Hall that low. I expect them to fall off, but didn't expect to see them well behind DePaul.
That said, great work as usual, and this model had frequently been accurate at pegging some teams on both ends of the predictions that other models tend to miss.
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Kansas is missing Dedric Lawson. Louisville in the 80s sounds about right unless they get some grad transfers
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A few surprises. Kansas seems really, really low for a team likely to start the season no lower than 3 in the rankings and quite possibly #1. Louisville (86) and Michigan (42) also surprised me as teams we may end up seeing in November.
The Big East still looks strong despite losing a lot. Likely looking at 6-7 bids if this is accurate, though I was shocked to see Seton Hall that low. I expect them to fall off, but didn't expect to see them well behind DePaul.
That said, great work as usual, and this model had frequently been accurate at pegging some teams on both ends of the predictions that other models tend to miss.
Putting a lot of faith in Philip Flory, huh?
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Putting a lot of faith in Philip Flory, huh?
I think it's more seeing anyone behind DePaul ever that's shocking ;D
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Kansas is missing Dedric Lawson. Louisville in the 80s sounds about right unless they get some grad transfers
Hey, value add projects MU to be a 7 seed.
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Hey, value add projects MU to be a 7 seed.
Be disappointed
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Hey, value add projects MU to be a 7 seed.
It's almost like I do research before making predictions.
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Unfortunately I am unable to open the link in China, but have to admit, encouraging news. That is higher than I expected, but trust your work. I 100% believe a proven PG is essential for next years success.
Damn Great Firewall of China!
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Good stuff Auburn. I didn't do a deep look but made a few edits on a few top teams that I noticed
Thank you for the fixes! tied up all day in DC with a movie opening so just getting back on and appreciate the updates.
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Unfortunately, I am unable to open the link in China, but have to admit, encouraging news. That is higher than I expected, but trust your work. I 100% believe a proven PG is essential for next years success.
Thanks and agree. If we don't get a key PG, this could be like Buzz's final year when we had Jamil and Davante, but the whole was not as good as the sum of it's parts because of the missing PG piece (and no picking on Derrick, he was a perfect defensive star PG who would have been wonderful in that role and was the only one available to run the point full time.
For you and anyone else who can't pull up table, here are just the teams through Butler for the moment.
1 Kentucky
2 Auburn
3 Villanova
4 Duke
5 Oregon
6 North Carolina
7 Tennessee
8 Nevada
9 Gonzaga
10 Mississippi St.
11 Maryland
12 Virginia
13 Syracuse
14 UCLA
15 LSU
16 North Carolina St.
17 Ohio St.
18 Virginia Tech
19 Michigan St.
20 Alabama
21 Miami FL
22 Florida
23 USC
24 Texas
25 Montana
26 Marquette
27 Kansas
28 Kansas St.
29 Creighton
30 Florida St.
31 Arizona St.
32 Iowa
33 TCU
34 Northeastern
35 Boston College
36 Providence
37 Notre Dame
38 Iowa St.
39 Indiana
40 Xavier
41 BYU
42 Michigan
43 San Diego St.
44 Fresno St.
45 Texas Tech
46 Northwestern
47 Davidson
48 Houston
49 St. John's
50 Washington
51 Wake Forest
52 Vanderbilt
53 Butler
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A few surprises. Kansas seems really, really low for a team likely to start the season no lower than 3 in the rankings and quite possibly #1. Louisville (86) and Michigan (42) also surprised me as teams we may end up seeing in November.
The Big East still looks strong despite losing a lot. Likely looking at 6-7 bids if this is accurate, though I was shocked to see Seton Hall that low. I expect them to fall off, but didn't expect to see them well behind DePaul.
That said, great work as usual, and this model had frequently been accurate at pegging some teams on both ends of the predictions that other models tend to miss.
Great spot by you and another reader who noticed we had transferred Dedric Lawson's brother over from Memphis 2017, and since he projects as the 12th best player in the country at 8.82 next year that in and of itself takes Kansas to 51.38 and between 3rd and 6th place depending on who is lost to the NBA from the top 3. Also note that the one roster spot that is open has a 3.0 placeholder, but they have a shot at the best available - projected 23rd ranked Romeo Langford at 8.20, so getting and holding Azubuike could make them No. 1. If either of those are not on their roster next year then there could be a spot for 323rd ranked Brandon Williams (4.65) who isn't as good as those two put would keep them right in the first few. Thanks for the great catches, and I will post the updated roster which is on the google sheet but won't be on www.valueaddbasketball.com until I can update in a week.
12 Dedric Lawson 6-foot-9 Jr Kansas 8.82
76 Udoka Azubuike #35 7-foot-0 So Kansas /could go NBA 7.03
79 Quentin Grimes 6-foot-5 Fr Kansas 7
172 Devon Dotson 6-foot-2 Fr Kansas 5.9
377 David McCormack 6-foot-9 Fr Kansas 4.35
730 Charlie Moore 13 5-foot-11 So Kansas 3.12
766 Marcus Garrett #0 6-foot-5 So Kansas 3.04
778 Sam Cunliffe #3 6-foot-6 Jr Kansas 3
793 Mitch Lightfoot #44 6-foot-8 Jr Kansas 2.93
1391 Silvio De Sousa #22 6-foot-9 So Kansas 1.61
2030 Keelon 'KJ' Lawson 6-foot-7 Fr Kansas 1
3037 Ochai Agbaji 6-foot-5.5 Fr Kansas 0.58
9999 Roster spot available Kansas 3
51.38
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Made other updates to Oregon, Kentucky, and Nevada though none were enough to change position right now. I added the following explanation and notes on other changes - with Kansas moving up to 5th (and thus ahead of Oregon) but otherwise the order staying the same for now. THe google sheet is updated, but www.valueaddbasketball.com will be a week behind with the addition of Dedric Lawson. Here is the updated part of the Cracked Sidewalks list:
(the four teams in bold had updates based on catches by readers in the google sheet. The only one that moved a team was Kansas, who with the addition of Dedric Lawson (inadvertent omission after sitting out last season) they jumped from 27th to 5th)
Rnk Team Project Value Add No agent, but could be drafted by NBA
1 Kentucky 59.16 Sacha Killeya-Jones transfer a wash because should get 2.22 back when they fill spot; possible NBA Washington 5.65, Vanderbilt 5.17, Gabriel 4.93
2 Auburn 56.21 Austin Wiley 6.0
3 Villanova 55.6 DiVincenzo 7.84, Spellman 4.96
4 Duke 54.23
5 Kansas 51.38 up 22 spots - 12th best player Dedric Lawson was missing as transfer - pot. NBA Azubuike 7.03
6 Oregon 50.92 lost Kavell Bigby-Williams 4.60
7 UNC 48.78
8 Tennessee 48.39 Schofield 6.98, Alexander 5.89
9 Nevada 48.2 add transfers Corey Henson (6.78), Jazz Johnson (5.81), but must drop from 15-man rosters; NBA possible Co. Martin 7.85, Ca. Martin 7.51, Caroline 7.01
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Auburn
Thanks for posting the list. A long, hard day complete and enjoying a cocktail catching up on Scoop. Let’s hope it is not a repeat of Buzz’s last season. That was a complete car wreck.
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Just posted updated ratings for each team and players that still might leave for the NBA from each squad on this Cracked Sidewalks piece: http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2018/04/updating-team-projections-after-nba.html
Since tables do not work well here, particularly listing 351 teams in order with potential NBA departures by all relevant teams, I'll just list where the Big East rosters are at this point nationally and those of you interested in the complete table and explanation can click on Cracked Sidewalks:
3) Villanova, 26) Marquette, 29) Creighton, 36) Providence, 40) Xavier, 49) St. John's, 53) Butler, 87) Georgetown, 125) DePaul, 151) Seton Hall.
As I've said, I believe Joseph Chartouny (best returning defensive guard in country) or Joe Cremo (3rd best overall available behind two 5-stars) gives MU a legit Sweet 16 shot.
Every time a team signs a new recruit, JUCO or graduated senior, that player's value will be added to their total (currently all those potential players are in the database and google sheet are listed with the team "available." until they sign. Once we get through the NBA draft we will be able to finalize who drops out of the database or is indeed back with the team and can lose the "Villanova /could go NBA" note.
Access the national story in the photo can be clicked on through the Cracked Sidewalks story.
https://tinyurl.com/y9mr9uu4 is the google sheet with all the players so feel free to mark in column A for any mistakes or updates you know are needed to www.valueaddbasketball.com so I can keep these projections up to date.
Did you take into account the two impressive transfers that are coming in for Seton Hall? Taurean Thompson and Quincy McKnight?
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Buzz' last season was a trainwreck because of a lack a good PG not a pure PG IMHO. Just because Markus is a shoot first PG doesn't mean we will be broken offensively
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Buzz' last season was a trainwreck because of a lack a good PG not a pure PG IMHO. Just because Markus is a shoot first PG doesn't mean we will be broken offensively
Markus isn't really even a point guard. He can play it for short stretches as a backup but he's never displayed the handle, court vision or passing ability to play the position full time.
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Markus isn't really even a point guard. He can play it for short stretches as a backup but he's never displayed the handle, court vision or passing ability to play the position full time.
I think what TAMU was trying to say is that even if we don't land JC or another PG for next year, we shouldn't be as bad as we were Buzz's last year.
Agree that best case scenario is that Markus doesn't have to run point for extended periods of time, but even if he has to, we should still be a good offensive team. I think this is mostly because of Sam. He will be a focal point of the offense, and he was the only one last year that would consistently look to pass into Matt or Theo. Sam's good decision making is IMO just as important as getting a PG for next seasons success.
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Markus isn't really even a point guard. He can play it for short stretches as a backup but he's never displayed the handle, court vision or passing ability to play the position full time.
I don't think any of this is true. I think many have a very outdated idea of what a PG is. I think we would be just fine with Markus running the point most of the game.
If we miss on JC, I'm more worried about who runs the point when Markus isn't in the game.
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I don't think any of this is true. I think many have a very outdated idea of what a PG is. I think we would be just fine with Markus running the point most of the game.
If we miss on JC, I'm more worried about who runs the point when Markus isn't in the game.
I'm less worried about what happens on offense than what happens on defense. We need someone who can guard the opponent's PG. Markus can't do that, but if he gets shifted over to the secondary guard, he can be hidden a little more.
Last season, neither Markus nor Rowsey could guard the opponent's lead ballhandler, so Greg-Jamal-Sacar guarded the lead guard, Markus got shifted to the second guard, and Rowsey ended up on a forward twice his size. If we had a PG to guard their point, it screws up the rest of the defensive alignment less.
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IF we add the Canadian Red Wine, I'll be interested to see what kind of jump we would make up this list.
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IF we add the Canadian Red Wine, I'll be interested to see what kind of jump we would make up this list.
Only a few slots, his expected value add is ~+2
HOWEVER, value add does not account for synergies. My guess is filling the defensive hole within the sum of the parts that are also much more complementary than his prior surroundings would lead to greater value than +2
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IF we add the Canadian Red Wine, I'll be interested to see what kind of jump we would make up this list.
If we miss it is all on you, it is white wine not red wine.
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If we miss it is all on you, it is white wine not red wine.
Maybe it's just me, but I think the name change thing is completely off the rails. When everyone had Ellenson in their name, okay. Even changing for a recruit, fine. We know recruits, players, and families of do read (and sometimes post on) Scoop.
If it's a simple "everyone add Chartouny" so be it, but the obscure mentions, the wine confusions, the "Kutcher" for Ashton Hagans, the Canada mentions, only people on this site that know what your username normally is will remotely get that it's a tribute or reference to a recruit.
Maybe I'm the old man yelling at kids on my lawn. I've never liked name changes at all on forums. But changing it to something even the regulars have to decipher? When it goes that far, your efforts have become completely pointless.
(And using that as a colloquial you, not you specifically, Newsie)
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Maybe it's just me, but I think the name change thing is completely off the rails. When everyone had Ellenson in their name, okay. Even changing for a recruit, fine. We know recruits, players, and families of do read (and sometimes post on) Scoop.
If it's a simple "everyone add Chartouny" so be it, but the obscure mentions, the wine confusions, the "Kutcher" for Ashton Hagans, the Canada mentions, only people on this site that know what your username normally is will remotely get that it's a tribute or reference to a recruit.
Maybe I'm the old man yelling at kids on my lawn. I've never liked name changes at all on forums. But changing it to something even the regulars have to decipher? When it goes that far, your efforts have become completely pointless.
(And using that as a colloquial you, not you specifically, Newsie)
LOL thought I didn't have to use teal. And I'm way older than you. So I won't get off your lawn even if you yell at me. ;D Just trying to have some fun, way too many negative pople here sometimes for no reason.
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Markus isn't really even a point guard. He can play it for short stretches as a backup but he's never displayed the handle, court vision or passing ability to play the position full time.
In fairness, had Rowsey displayed those things before last season?
Guys DO get better. As a soph, Vander was an offensive liability. As a junior, he became a borderline star and a big-shotmaker, and Buzz was counting on Vander to play PG the next season.
I definitely want an established PG, and I definitely worry about PG depth if we don't get one. But given the many ways to play PG now, I don't think Markus would be a disaster playing there.
Comparing the team's plight with Markus at PG to Derrick (not you, Lenny, but others) ... wow.
Derrick didn't have the handle, court vision or passing ability to play the position full-time, either, and he had the bonus of not being able to hit a shot longer than 5 feet. (And not many closer than 5 feet.)
But yes, again, if I were a religious guy, I'd be prayin' for JC.
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If we miss it is all on you, it is white wine not red wine.
Oh. Crap. I'm not a huge wine drinker. Haha. Sorry everyone.
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Maybe it's just me, but I think the name change thing is completely off the rails. When everyone had Ellenson in their name, okay. Even changing for a recruit, fine. We know recruits, players, and families of do read (and sometimes post on) Scoop.
If it's a simple "everyone add Chartouny" so be it, but the obscure mentions, the wine confusions, the "Kutcher" for Ashton Hagans, the Canada mentions, only people on this site that know what your username normally is will remotely get that it's a tribute or reference to a recruit.
Maybe I'm the old man yelling at kids on my lawn. I've never liked name changes at all on forums. But changing it to something even the regulars have to decipher? When it goes that far, your efforts have become completely pointless.
(And using that as a colloquial you, not you specifically, Newsie)
8-)
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Brew
I agree. Half the time I am trying to figure out with the hell the poster is these days. Lot of new handles of late.
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(https://frinkiac.com/video/S06E01/8-cxXclhcFLqUGM3CVeBZ1vJUfE=.gif)
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(https://frinkiac.com/video/S06E01/8-cxXclhcFLqUGM3CVeBZ1vJUfE=.gif)
WHAT DOES BREW KNOW????
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I don't know who this is, but well done.
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I totally missed it the first time but well done poster!
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I don't think the point of name changes is in hopes that the recruit and/or his family will see it and be impressed...