MUScoop
MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: Ellenson Guerrero on January 16, 2018, 08:08:01 AM
-
Right now we sit at 4-3 in the BEast. Ending up with a 9-9 gives us a fighting chance on Selection Sunday, 10-8 looks pretty good, and 11-7 is a shoe in. But our next five games are pretty brutal:
X on the road
Nova at home
Butler at home
PC at home
SH on the road
The Butler and PC home games seem pretty winable, but it would be great to sneak out another on or two. Fortunately the back end of our schedule is softer, but how many of our next 5 do we need win to feel confident about our position for the tourney? I'll be pretty sick to my stomach if we're sitting at 4-8.
-
Need? Zero. Beat DePaul, Georgetown, and St John's 4 times and get one more league win and we're probably in. Creighton at home would still be there, so while I'd prefer 3-4, we truly don't NEED any.
-
Q is how many wins to feel confident? While I think 2 would be fine, 3 is my threshold for "confident"
-
Arby's.
-
We win two out of the next five and we're an 8 seed or better. Win one and we're a shoe in.
Note, this is all assuming we play how we should/are capable of the last 6 games of the season. I think we are likely to win 5 out of the last 6, so we only need one out of the next five to feel comfortable.
-
2. That would make MU 6-6 through 12. Any path that leads to 10 conference wins is adequate to make the tourney. So, Butler and PC at home, sweep SJU, beat DePaul and G-town at their places is enough. Stealing one more along the way is better.
-
Arby's.
(https://i.imgur.com/f7FdEdG.jpg)
-
We win two out of the next five and we're an 8 seed or better. Win one and we're a shoe in.
Note, this is all assuming we play how we should/are capable of the last 6 games of the season. I think we are likely to win 5 out of the last 6, so we only need one out of the next five to feel comfortable.
Aren't we all overestimating our ability to win games on the road that we "should" win? I think it's more likely we'll dump one of those at Georgetown or St. Johns and have another unexpected win than for things to go as scripted.
-
Gang, this is the Big East.
They're all brutal -- except for maybe DePaul. And even that's not a guarantee at the Winny in Chicago.
Nothing is guaranteed. We're a good team in a great conference, notwithstanding the opinion of one Hillbilly.
-
To feel confident?
1 or 2.
To feel done-dealish?
3 or 4.
Even though we do not "need" to win any of these 5, I do worry about taking a five-game losing streak into the "easy" part of our schedule. Negative momentum can be ugly.
And as dgies and others have said, there are no guarantees. If we shoot like we did against DePaul and if our opponent plays better than DePaul did (which is highly likely), especially on the road, we easily could lose to the likes of SJ or GT.
Better teams than us have lost to worse teams than them this season.
So let's get a "margin of error" and take a couple in this next stretch of games!!
-
Aren't we all overestimating our ability to win games on the road that we "should" win? I think it's more likely we'll dump one of those at Georgetown or St. Johns and have another unexpected win than for things to go as scripted.
Georgetown, St Johns, and DePaul are dumpster fires....I have zero concerns that we lose to them on the road. Does that mean we won't, no $hit happens in the Big East. If I'm prognosticating, those are four wins and I plan all else accordingly.
-
To feel confident?
1 or 2.
To feel done-dealish?
3 or 4.
Even though we do not "need" to win any of these 5, I do worry about taking a five-game losing streak into the "easy" part of our schedule. Negative momentum can be ugly.
And as dgies and others have said, there are no guarantees. If we shoot like we did against DePaul and if our opponent plays better than DePaul did (which is highly likely), especially on the road, we easily could lose to the likes of SJ or GT.
Better teams than us have lost to worse teams than them this season.
So let's get a "margin of error" and take a couple in this next stretch of games!!
If we win 3 or 4 out of the next 5 it's not done dealish we are talking top 4 seeding in the tournament.
-
Basically what everyone has said.
3-4 would take an absolute collapse to not make it.
2 wins would take a pretty solid stumble.
10-8 is a complete lock
9-9 is most likely in. But might be a little sketchy if 6 of the 9 are against the bottom dwellers.
-
About this time last year is when we had a our 1-4 stretch after beating Villanova and had to rally at the end of the season to earn our tourney berth. I fear we could see a similar stretch here with three games where we are a solid underdog and two games that are close to pick ems. Fortunately, the back end of our schedule should allow us to rattle off a few wins. The goal in this stretch should be 2-3 (well it should be 5-0 but you know what I mean)
0 wins - We are behind and need to win all the remaining games that we are supposed to and one we are not (vs. Creighton?)
1 win - No room for error. Need to win all the remaining games that we are supposed to (SJU x 2, @DPL, @GTWN)
2 wins - Barring a collapse we should be comfortably in
3 wins - Starting to expect top half seeding (8 or better)
4 wins - Definitely expecting top half seeding, probably closer to 6 seed
5 wins - Pretty sure we're ranked at this point
-
TAMU
I am with you across the board. Have to admit that I was wrong about the strength of BE as basketball conference. As we sit here today, the overall conference is better than I expected it would be five years ago. Hope I am still admitting being wrong about BE five years from now. That said, at this time, zero wiggle room for MU to go into a funk and let things slip away. As TAMU noted, post 'Nova last year was not good and need to avoid that at all cost.
-
About this time last year is when we had a our 1-4 stretch after beating Villanova and had to rally at the end of the season to earn our tourney berth. I fear we could see a similar stretch here with three games where we are a solid underdog and two games that are close to pick ems. Fortunately, the back end of our schedule should allow us to rattle off a few wins. The goal in this stretch should be 2-3 (well it should be 5-0 but you know what I mean)
0 wins - We are behind and need to win all the remaining games that we are supposed to and one we are not (vs. Creighton?)
1 win - No room for error. Need to win all the remaining games that we are supposed to (SJU x 2, @DPL, @GTWN)
2 wins - Barring a collapse we should be comfortably in
3 wins - Starting to expect top half seeding (8 or better)
4 wins - Definitely expecting top half seeding, probably closer to 6 seed
5 wins - Pretty sure we're ranked at this point
Absolutely ranked, and we may be ranked if we win our next two. We won't pick up votes on the basis of beating DePaul, but if we get to 15-6 with a week that includes wins over Xavier on the road and Villanova, you'd think in the next two weeks (by the time that poll would come out) quite a few teams in the 15-25 range will lose 2+ games. If not then, definitely after the 4th straight win (Providence).
-
For fun, here's the RPIs according to RPI Wizard for each win total over the next 5 games assuming we finish the season losing to Creighton twice and winning the four against the cellar dwellers.
0-5: 58
1-4: 53
2-3: 40
3-2: 31
4-1: 24
5-0: 19
With our top 25 SOS, an RPI of 58 doesn't actually disqualify us from the tournament. I wouldn't feel comfortable at 17-13 with those numbers but we wouldn't be the most outrageous team to make an at large bid. Make a little noise in the BET and don't have many bracketbusters and I think we can sneak in.
-
For fun, here's the RPIs according to RPI Wizard for each win total over the next 5 games assuming we finish the season losing to Creighton twice and winning the four against the cellar dwellers.
0-5: 58
1-4: 53
2-3: 40
3-2: 31
4-1: 24
5-0: 19
With our top 25 SOS, an RPI of 58 doesn't actually disqualify us from the tournament. I wouldn't feel comfortable at 17-13 with those numbers but we wouldn't be the most outrageous team to make an at large bid. Make a little noise in the BET and don't have many bracketbusters and I think we can sneak in.
From a strictly numbers perspective, you would have to think we will look decent with even those 17 wins. Get 1-2 at MSG and we'll be very bubblicious. But I agree that I wouldn't feel comfortable with only 17 wins or a losing conference record. That said, I do think 17 wins guarantees us the NIT, and as that's probably the worst case scenario in a season many thought would be a step back, that's not bad at all.
-
For fun, here's the RPIs according to RPI Wizard for each win total over the next 5 games assuming we finish the season losing to Creighton twice and winning the four against the cellar dwellers.
0-5: 58
1-4: 53
2-3: 40
3-2: 31
4-1: 24
5-0: 19
With our top 25 SOS, an RPI of 58 doesn't actually disqualify us from the tournament. I wouldn't feel comfortable at 17-13 with those numbers but we wouldn't be the most outrageous team to make an at large bid. Make a little noise in the BET and don't have many bracketbusters and I think we can sneak in.
And that assumes we lose to Creighton twice....I think we take at least one against them.
-
I have personally viewed the first 12 games of the conference season as 6 2-game sets. If we go 1-1 in each two-game set, we'll be 6-6 with 6 to play. Thus far, we have done exactly that (split Xavier/Georgetown, split Prov/Villanova, and split Hall/Butler). So if we go 2-3 over the next five we've set ourselves up for a strong last 6 games to get in.
-
TAMU
I am with you across the board. Have to admit that I was wrong about the strength of BE as basketball conference. As we sit here today, the overall conference is better than I expected it would be five years ago. Hope I am still admitting being wrong about BE five years from now. That said, at this time, zero wiggle room for MU to go into a funk and let things slip away. As TAMU noted, post 'Nova last year was not good and need to avoid that at all cost.
Big East has definitely improved every year. Imagine how tough it would be if Providence hadn't been decimated by injuries all season and St. John's didn't have whatever drama is going on with Marcus LoVett.
Next season could be the year where the conference as whole takes a step back. Providence and Seton Hall should take major steps back. Creighton loses their star Foster for sure and Thomas might test the NBA waters. Villanova could have up to three players who are good enough to get drafted. Butler loses their best player and their starting center only has one player in their 2018 class who is ranked in the low 300s....though they just landed a midseason transfer from Duke. St. John's depends on whether or not LoVett comes back and Ponds could theoreticlally go pro. DePaul and Georgetown have too far to climb in one season. There could be a huge power vacuum that Marquette should be poised to step into.
-
Big East has definitely improved every year. Imagine how tough it would be if Providence hadn't been decimated by injuries all season and St. John's didn't have whatever drama is going on with Marcus LoVett.
Next season could be the year where the conference as whole takes a step back. Providence and Seton Hall should take major steps back. Creighton loses their star Foster for sure and Thomas might test the NBA waters. Villanova could have up to three players who are good enough to get drafted. Butler loses their best player and their starting center only has one player in their 2018 class who is ranked in the low 300s....though they just landed a midseason transfer from Duke. St. John's depends on whether or not LoVett comes back and Ponds could theoreticlally go pro. DePaul and Georgetown have too far to climb in one season. There could be a huge power vacuum that Marquette should be poised to step into.
Obviously NBA decisions will make a huge impact on the fortunes of Villanova and Creighton. Xavier also loses effectively three senior starters (Blueitt, Macura, Kanter/O'Mara). I could see 2018-19 either being a three-horse race between Marquette, Villanova, and Creighton, or being a year where we could conceivably run away with it (assuming everyone is back) and be looking at a top-2 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
-
Of relevance, KenPom is projecting us to finish with a 10-8 record but on an individual game projection basis actually has us at 11-7 (the different projections have to do with the accumulation of probabilities across multiple games). Any way, it also projects we go 2-3 over the next 5 games and KenPom has underprojected us all season(was originally 6-12 in conference). This is one of the main reasons I'm confident we're dancing.
-
I think we only need 1 of the next 5 to be in pretty good shape. 2 or more and we're in fantastic shape.
-
Whatever we do, I feel it is CRITICAL that we beat Providence and Butler at home. Getting a 2-0 head to head with Providence would give us a bubble edge should we both be there at the end of the year. Butler has that quality win against Nova. Splitting with Butler would at least put us on par with them and challenge the committee if we both land on the bubble.
There is no "shame" in losing to Nova or at Xavier, and even Seton Hall, considering we have a win against Hall already.
-
If we win 3 or 4 out of the next 5 it's not done dealish we are talking top 4 seeding in the tournament.
I defer to your knowledge on the subject. TAMU's, too.
TAMU - love that RPI exercise you did.