MUScoop
MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: jesmu84 on May 18, 2016, 11:18:44 AM
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Per twitter
https://twitter.com/youngkalif13/status/732967886596235264
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https://twitter.com/youngkalif13/status/732967886596235264
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The funny thing is he can't even get the name of the school right, its Providence College, not University.
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What's up with anonymous eagle tweeting out laughter and other snide comments regarding this result?
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I think we can still win (meaning an NCAA appearance) in 2017. 2018 scares the bejeebus out of me.
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Hmmm, maybe the Ellensons put a curse on the 13th scholarship? After all, Henry was number 13 and Holly tweeted "smoke and mirrors" after it was announced that Wally was leaving the program...
(I really hope this didn't need to be teal...)
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On paper not a big loss, but I sure hope there's a Plan C for that scholarship, because cutting your highest percentage defensive rebounder, then not filling the slot with someone that fills that same glaring need isn't a good look.
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By all accounts he would have been a nice get, so it's disappointing of course.
Still happy with Wojo's second straight solid recruiting class. Still optimistic about the direction of the program.
And even if I were unhappy (which I'm not), it's out of my control so I refuse to get all mopey and dopey about it.
An 18-year-old kid made a decision. Plus, it's only basketball.
My life will go on very nicely, and I'm thinking the same is true for every other Scooper.
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By all accounts he would have been a nice get, so it's disappointing of course.
Still happy with Wojo's second straight solid recruiting class. Still optimistic about the direction of the program.
And even if I were unhappy (which I'm not), it's out of my control so I refuse to get all mopey and dopey about it.
An 18-year-old kid made a decision. Plus, it's only basketball.
My life will go on very nicely, and I'm thinking the same is true for every other Scooper.
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Time to move on.
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What's up with anonymous eagle tweeting out laughter and other snide comments regarding this result?
He is the biggest tool bag!
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By all accounts he would have been a nice get, so it's disappointing of course.
Still happy with Wojo's second straight solid recruiting class. Still optimistic about the direction of the program.
And even if I were unhappy (which I'm not), it's out of my control so I refuse to get all mopey and dopey about it.
An 18-year-old kid made a decision. Plus, it's only basketball.
My life will go on very nicely, and I'm thinking the same is true for every other Scooper.
Exactly. Would we trade classes with Providence? Certainly not. Cooley can recruit, but with two first round picks, one who could go as high as three, he won 1 NCAA tournament game and doesn't seem to know how to beat Marquette that often.
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What's up with anonymous eagle tweeting out laughter and other snide comments regarding this result?
The tweet right after was a picture of Young crystal ball which was 100% for MU. I think that's what the laughter was aimed at. Does Jay Bee control the AE twitter account?
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Que Sera Sera Now more minutes for our other guys.
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Exactly. Would we trade classes with Providence? Certainly not. Cooley can recruit, but with two first round picks, one who could go as high as three, he won 1 NCAA tournament game and doesn't seem to know how to beat Marquette that often.
The concern isn't MU vs PC, it's the serious lack of frontcourt depth in the upcoming years.
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We'll be OK next year. Lots of pure shooting coming in.
Remember, we did well the the small team, the Amigos.
Al did well with short guys until Chones came along. We have to keep Big Fishy out of foul trouble.
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Obviously would've rather got him than not, but certainly not going to lose any sleep over this one.
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The tweet right after was a picture of Young crystal ball which was 100% for MU. I think that's what the laughter was aimed at. Does Jay Bee control the AE twitter account?
No, another (occasional) poster/lurker on the board does.
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You have got to be kidding me. Rebounding is going to be fun next year.
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At least with him going to Providence we will easily be able to see, if we missed out on a good recruit. I will not cry over this loss until Providence actually beats MU.
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We'll be OK next year. Lots of pure shooting coming in.
Remember, we did well the the small team, the Amigos.
Al did well with short guys until Chones came along. We have to keep Big Fishy out of foul trouble.
Villanova did okay playing small ball last year, as well.
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Villanova did okay playing small ball last year, as well.
Villanova was not small. Their center out weighed Fischer by 45 pounds and at every position they were significantly stronger than MU.
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Ratz! Disappointed, but, agree, we are improved over last year with much better shooting.
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But wait, we have heard it here that Wojo always gets his man. Guess we cooled on the kid.
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Villanova did okay playing small ball last year, as well.
Villanova at least had one banger/lane protector in Ochefu on the floor, not to mention a coach who has coached that way for a long time and built his roster accordingly. I like Luke and he is a nice low post offensive option, but he is hardly a rim protector or a beast on the boards, and who knows if Heldt is even good enough to get minutes? So what I worry about is who is going to protect the lane and where are the rebounds going to come from?
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Villanova was not small. Their center out weighed Fischer by 45 pounds and at every position they were significantly stronger than MU.
We've done great in the past playing small in 2008, 2009 we were super small, 2010 we were super small, in 2011 we only had one player who was truly large, in 2012 we were smaller than now.
Not expecting lazar Jimmy or Jae to walk through the door but as Chicos says it's a guards game.
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The tweet right after was a picture of Young crystal ball which was 100% for MU. I think that's what the laughter was aimed at. Does Jay Bee control the AE twitter account?
Did Jerry Meyer do one of his "___ to ____. Cristal bowel had it at 100%" type tweets on Young yet?
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No, another (occasional) poster/lurker on the board does.
Sorry shoulda used teal
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Ya win some, Ya lose some.
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But wait, we have heard it here that Wojo always gets his man.
No we haven't.
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Sorry shoulda used teal
No, you shouldn't, I got what you were doing....my response was more for the less nuanced poster that maybe went after Jay Bee :)
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Villanova was not small. Their center out weighed Fischer by 45 pounds and at every position they were significantly stronger than MU.
And next year Marquette takes a big step up from being what? the 8th youngest team in Division I?
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Villanova at least had one banger/lane protector in Ochefu on the floor, not to mention a coach who has coached that way for a long time and built his roster accordingly. I like Luke and he is a nice low post offensive option, but he is hardly a rim protector or a beast on the boards, and who knows if Heldt is even good enough to get minutes? So what I worry about is who is going to protect the lane and where are the rebounds going to come from?
Luke's rebounding does need work, but I disagree about him not protecting the rim. He can be effective doing that.
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Style of play will change, but that was likely to happen whether Young or Wally were on the roster. We're going to have to crash the boards with the whole team a lot more meaning less runouts and transition buckets. Also, Sacar will have to step up
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Luke's rebounding does need work, but I disagree about him not protecting the rim. He can be effective doing that.
I just think he fouls too much to be an effective rim protector.
I hope you turn out to be right.
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Last year, we looked like a good high school team playing against men. Our players need to beef up to compete in the BE.
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Well, obviously all Wojo is going to have to do is institute a "3 Point/No Misses" offense and the lack of rebounding will take care of itself.
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I just think he fouls too much to be an effective rim protector.
I hope you turn out to be right.
I can think back to some dumb and early fouls...
..but, really.. the numbers don't tell me this to be true.
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Bentil confirms he's staying in the NBA draft
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Bentil confirms he's staying in the NBA draft
In the short run it hurts Providence and the Big East to lose a quality player. In the medium and long term it will be very helpful if he is a first round draft choice and sticks in the league with some successful years.
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I can think back to some dumb and early fouls...
..but, really.. the numbers don't tell me this to be true.
plus, and i could be totally off my rocker or just remembering the fouls that irked me, but IIRC weren't the games when he got in foul trouble the games where he picked up 2/3 fouls getting caught out of position after having to help on the perimeter? Therefore a more experienced and deeper perimeter will have him in position more, avoiding those fouls, and able to play more aggressively in his position.
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Bentil confirms he's staying in the NBA draft
Mixed feelings about this. On one hand, I always want to keep talented players in the Big East. On the other hand, I think there are about 8 teams in the Big East who are good enough to make the tournament next season. Bentil leaving drops Providence to the bottom of that list. Gotta be in top 6 to make the dance.
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Biggish picture: Bentil leaving weakens the Big East overall somewhat.
Main picture I care about: Glad we won't have to deal with Bentil twice this season.
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Mixed feelings about this. On one hand, I always want to keep talented players in the Big East. On the other hand, I think there are about 8 teams in the Big East who are good enough to make the tournament next season. Bentil leaving drops Providence to the bottom of that list. Gotta be in top 6 to make the dance.
Big East will get four bids.
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Big East will get four bids.
The next time the Big East gets 4 (or fewer) bids will be the first. I'll take the over on that. More likely to get 7 than we are to get 4.
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The next time the Big East gets 4 (or fewer) bids will be the first. I'll take the over on that. More likely to get 7 than we are to get 4.
Depaul, St. Johns, Providence, no chance, then there is group that will make it, X and Villy, and Hall will make it. That leaves 4 teams in the middle, all have issues.
Creighton might be the best of this group, with MU, Butler, and GTown all have a chance. Conference will be good and challenging.
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Big East will get four bids.
You obviously are just gut reacting. There is no way the Big East gets four. X, Nova, and Hall are locks. Butler will be about the same level this year and they made the tourney last season. Marquette, Creighton, Georgetown will all improve significantly. Only Providence will drop significantly.
Look at the landscape of college basketball. Most of the top teams are losing a TON of talent. The Big East, not as much.
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What I am intrigued about is that Wojo is building the team he wants to run the kind of game he wants and to coach the way he wants.
We have a guard based team, no doubt, and with the exception of Fishy and Heldt, no one over 6'6". There's some depth this year which allows us to rotate people in and out of our line-up more effectively than ever before -- or at least since the H'billy left.
I actually think next year will tell a lot about our future. The challenges are:
1) Can JJJ step up and shoot, block out and, yes, rebound?
2) How deep will we really go next year?
3) Will Hannif step-up and be the team leader. It may be a lot to ask, but it is something needed.
We'll see but I think this is a potentially exciting team and I like the thought one poster already made that we could run our opponents out of the gym!
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What I am intrigued about is that Wojo is building the team he wants to run the kind of game he wants and to coach the way he wants.
We have a guard based team, no doubt, and with the exception of Fishy and Heldt, no one over 6'6". There's some depth this year which allows us to rotate people in and out of our line-up more effectively than ever before -- or at least since the H'billy left.
I actually think next year will tell a lot about our future. The challenges are:
1) Can JJJ step up and shoot, block out and, yes, rebound?
2) How deep will we really go next year?
3) Will Hannif step-up and be the team leader. It may be a lot to ask, but it is something needed.
We'll see but I think this is a potentially exciting team and I like the thought one poster already made that we could run our opponents out of the gym!
Truth. My only concern is Luke is the only rock inside. If he has an off day we are living/dying with jump shooting and 3's. (Granted JJJ and Hani, and I guess even the Engine showed some good slashing last year)
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Truth. My only concern is Luke is the only rock inside. If he has an off day we are living/dying with jump shooting and 3's. (Granted JJJ and Hani, and I guess even the Engine showed some good slashing last year)
Bottom line -- our defense is going to have to take the pressure off Big Fishy. If it does not, Big Fishy and the bench will know each other better than an old married couple.
Last year, Big Fishy got in foul trouble because he was the last line in a porous defense.
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Bottom line -- our defense is going to have to take the pressure off Big Fishy. If it does not, Big Fishy and the bench will know each other better than an old married couple.
Last year, Big Fishy got in foul trouble because he was the last line in a porous defense.
He got in foul trouble, because he would reach. Once in foul trouble the other team would just go after him.
When Buzz had his small teams he would use the guards to pressure the other teams guards to prevent the opportunities for the other team to go inside. I see no reason why this team cannot do the same. I am not worried about defense or Fischer or Heldt. We have the players to put a lot of pressure on the other team whether it is full court or half court. What I am worried about is rebounding. I see that as the team's greatest weakness. Allowing the opposing team to get the offensive rebound will result in the opposing team have the ball inside to do damage. That is basically how Al figured you beat a zone. Let the guards shoot and then have the bigmen clean up the misses. That of course worked well when you had the bigmen tandems Al had.
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He got in foul trouble, because he would reach. Once in foul trouble the other team would just go after him.
When Buzz had his small teams he would use the guards to pressure the other teams guards to prevent the opportunities for the other team to go inside. I see no reason why this team cannot do the same. I am not worried about defense or Fischer or Heldt. We have the players to put a lot of pressure on the other team whether it is full court or half court. What I am worried about is rebounding. I see that as the team's greatest weakness. Allowing the opposing team to get the offensive rebound will result in the opposing team have the ball inside to do damage. That is basically how Al figured you beat a zone. Let the guards shoot and then have the bigmen clean up the misses. That of course worked well when you had the bigmen tandems Al had.
Obviously we don't have the bruiser bigs like a Seton Hall or Xavier has and I don't think we have anyone who is the second coming of Don Kojis as far as rebounds are concerned. However, I do think the guys we have are willing to work hard and block out and play smart.
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Obviously we don't have the bruiser bigs like a Seton Hall or Xavier has and I don't think we have anyone who is the second coming of Don Kojis as far as rebounds are concerned. However, I do think the guys we have are willing to work hard and block out and play smart.
We had one good rebounder on the team last year. He's gone. It's likely that we'll face teams this year who have a better rebounder than us at all 5 positions. So I sure hope that "the guys we have are willing to work hard and block out". None of them did a very good job of blocking out last year, though.
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We had one good rebounder on the team last year. He's gone. It's likely that we'll face teams this year who have a better rebounder than us at all 5 positions. So I sure hope that "the guys we have are willing to work hard and block out". None of them did a very good job of blocking out last year, though.
Yes I am hoping that too.
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We had one good rebounder on the team last year. He's gone. It's likely that we'll face teams this year who have a better rebounder than us at all 5 positions. So I sure hope that "the guys we have are willing to work hard and block out". None of them did a very good job of blocking out last year, though.
Luke had almost as many offensive rebounds (100) as defensive (103) last year. With more experience and strength, I think he has the potential to improve his defensive rebounding. Obviously, that should be a big part of his focus this summer.
Believe it or not, Haanif is second among the returning players with 98 defensive boards. At 6-5 he's got good size for a 2-guard, and we'll probably see him defending multiple positions. He might just surprise a lot of people after a good offseason and spending some time in the weight room.
Sandy had 94 defensive rebounds last year in almost 200 fewer minutes than Luke. If he can get stronger, he could find a role as a defensive specialist — and leave the offense to Jajuan, Duane, Katin, Rowsey, etc. Maybe less is more from a shooting standpoint, if he can pick his spots as the 4th or 5th option in offensive sets.
Jajuan had 79 defensive rebounds a year ago — pretty much matching Luke's defensive rebounding percentage. Can he pack some muscle on his long and lanky frame? He is 22 and one of the most physically mature players on the team.
Matt saw just 53 minutes in Big East play, but did post a decent defensive rebounding percentage (higher than Luke's anyway). Just how much he's improved, and how much time he'll get on the court, is anybody's guess until the start of the season. Let's hope for a big jump in his sophomore year. Even 3 or 4 boards a game would be outstanding.
I don't expect Katin to suddenly become a rebounding force. But ESPN lists him at 215 — decent size for 6-6, and 25 pounds more than he was coming into college. Can he do better? That would sure help.
Anim and Hauser are wild cards. Sacar played just 26 minutes in 7 conference games. Maybe, just maybe, the fact that he was named the hardest worker means he'll be stronger and able to contribute on the defensive glass. As for Sam, I'm not counting on him to be a regular contributor as a freshman. And it's not as though he was some amazing rebounder in high school. Anything he brings to the table I see as a bonus.
Clearly, defense and rebounding will be a huge question mark going into 2017-18. We'll have to see how much of a difference a year makes for what was a very young team last season.
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Good points but no longer a young team, 5 players should be seniors or graduated by now, different make-up this upcoming season. One player lost, but 4 players
added, two Top 100 kids and two very experienced and older players that averaged 30 points per game. This is a team now, not catering to one. Lets see how Wojo
coaches this group.
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We're not young at all anymore. That's no excuse for anything next year. On the rebounding front, I've said to folks that the way Sandy earns his minutes is to play great perimeter D and rebound.
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Matt was just starting to look good, when he hurt his knee(?). Unfortunately he missed valuable playing time at the end of the year with his injury. Did we ever find out what his injury actually was and what is his status now? I do think Anim is a wild card. His playing time last year was hurt by him not knowing where to be on defense. He is an offensively talented player and is suppose to be very athletic.
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We're not young at all anymore. That's no excuse for anything next year. On the rebounding front, I've said to folks that the way Sandy earns his minutes is to play great perimeter D and rebound.
Agree completely. I didn't point that out as an excuse. With a year of experience for all the returnees, plus the experience of new additions Rowsey and Reinhardt, this should be a team that plays smarter than a year ago. Fewer turnovers and missed assignments. Better shots. They should also all be stronger and more physically mature, more ready for the rigors of Big East play (i.e. tough defense and rebounding).
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Good points but no longer a young team, 5 players should be seniors or graduated by now, different make-up this upcoming season. One player lost, but 4 players
added, two Top 100 kids and two very experienced and older players that averaged 30 points per game. This is a team now, not catering to one. Lets see how Wojo
coaches this group.
I agree with all of this, and I expect Wojo - who also is no longer inexperienced - to improve, too.
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Clearly, defense and rebounding will be a huge question mark going into 2017-18. We'll have to see how much of a difference a year makes for what was a very young team last season.
Good Analysis Marcus92. On defensive rebounding our 4 smaller guys have got to box out so that Luke only has to contend with the other center. Also I NEVER want to see Luke outside hedging screens. He got a lot of his fouls that way. He simply can't recover out there and he is a foul waiting to happen.
For offensive rebounding shooting a bunch of 3s creates long rebounds. For those we should have an advantage rebounding in space and we simply must make the most of that. There will be games when we are simply over matched and we will get beat. But we don't have to win all the games in the BE we only have to win 1/2 or better. There will be times when our 3s are dropping that we should be able to out score an opponent. We've also got to throw in wrinkles like 3/4 traps etc. This year will show Wojo's coaching ability just like the year with the midgets showed Buzz could coach.
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Looking at rebounds and minutes played isn’t the best way to go about it, IMO.. since there’s better information out there or metrics that are relatively easy to calculate..
Yeah, Matt had a season-high 3 DR against Maine.. but that was a 104-67 win in an 82 possession game.. so was his DR% as good as it would be in a 65 possession game where the other team shot very well? Nawwww…
Heldt’s DR% was 11.6% and for a 6’10” that’s very low.
Fischer’s was 11.8%, a career-low, this past season. However, his other two years were only 12.8% and 12.6%, respectively. So, are there concerns that his DR% ceiling is low? Yup.
Heldt I think you still hold out hope for.. let’s get that to 17%, a’’ina?
Quick look so don’t quote this as Bible, but looks like ~70 BEast guys got 40% or more of their team minutes. Of those, 20 guys are taller than 6’7”.
How many of the 19 other guys that are taller than 6’7” had a better DR% than Fischer last season?
All of them.
Haanif had a DR% of 10.8%. For a 6’5” guy, I’m not wowed. (JjJ was at 11.2%).
Katin’s rebounding has been astoundingly low.
Henry’s DR% was excellent and frankly, Wally would have been our best returning rebounder.
Sandy was formidable at 15% in conference play. I think that can get him time on the court…
I just don’t know where the DR’s come from though.. other than a group effort.. I think you a) look to add a guy that can rebound, b) hope Matt can play some minutes and rebound, c) hope Fischer can show meaningful improvement.
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CAUTION: The following contains massive speculation and forward-looking statements based on incomplete information and a highly questionable grasp of statistical metrics. With that out of the way, here's one possible blueprint for how this team could replace Henry's 9.7 rebounds a game:
Luke Fischer — 7.1 to 7.4 rpg (+0.9 to +1.2 over 2015-16)
Haanif Cheatham — 4.1 to 4.4 rpg (+0.7 to +1.0)
Sandy Cohen — 3.8 to 4.2 rpg (+0.6 to +1.0)
Jajuan Johnson — 3.7 to 3.8 rpg (+0.5 to +0.6)
Matt Heldt — 3.4 to 4.0 rpg (+2.9 to +3.1)
Sacar Anim — 2.0 to 2.5 rpg (+1.6 to +2.1)
Without taking pace or possessions into account, these 6 returning players could (and I emphasize could) account for an extra 7.2 to 8.5 rebounds a game. Alright, here are the assumptions. And there are some big ones.
Luke and Jajuan improve their rebounding production by 15% to 20% in roughly the same number of minutes. Why it will happen: they're both seniors and finally pull it all together for their final season at Marquette. Why it won't happen: neither has ever shown that big a jump in their defensive rebounding percentage.
Moving on. Hannif and Sandy improve by 20% or a little better. Hannif because he's a stud — and because this level of production is roughly in line with Vander's rebounding output early in his career. Sandy — well, we just really, really need him to have a big senior year.
Matt's number isn't quite pulled out of a hat (although it's close). It's roughly based on the production we got from Otule once he was over his early injury problems and could contribute on a regular basis. Think Matt is at least as athletic, if not more so. Will he play the 10+ mpg needed to come close to these numbers? We'll see.
Sacar...now this one is a complete 1,000,000% guess. Assumes he's seeing consistent minutes in the regular rotation.
With the above in mind, Duane, Rowsey, Katin, Sam and Marcus would have to make up the remaining 1.2 to 2.7 extra rebounds a game between them. I don't know if this purely hypothetical exercise is worth much. Where I'm slightly reassured is that we have enough talent and bodies that a little improvement all around could go a long way. It'll have to be a team effort — no one player is going to come in and be Henry the Second.
Alright, I've steeled myself for the onslaught.
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^^ Tough to reconcile without minutes, pace, opp shooting assumptions, etc.
"Hannif and Sandy improve by 20% or a little better. Hannif because he's a stud — and because this level of production is roughly in line with Vander's rebounding output early in his career. "
So, I thought Vander's DR% dropped every year? Down near 9% by JR years
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Tough to reconcile without minutes, pace, opp shooting assumptions, etc.
Agree 100%. I'd go so far as to say impossible to reconcile. I just wanted some rough idea of what it would take for this team rebound at a similar level to last year's — when Marquette had the best rebounder in 25 years.
So, I thought Vander's DR% dropped every year? Down near 9% by JR years
I don't even know that Vander is a good comparison for Haanif. Vander was quicker and more athletic. Hannif, I think, is smarter and craftier. The key question is, can Haanif improve on a very good freshman season in terms of defensive rebounding?
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CAUTION: The following contains massive speculation and forward-looking statements based on incomplete information and a highly questionable grasp of statistical metrics. With that out of the way, here's one possible blueprint for how this team could replace Henry's 9.7 rebounds a game:
Luke Fischer — 7.1 to 7.4 rpg (+0.9 to +1.2 over 2015-16)
Haanif Cheatham — 4.1 to 4.4 rpg (+0.7 to +1.0)
Sandy Cohen — 3.8 to 4.2 rpg (+0.6 to +1.0)
Jajuan Johnson — 3.7 to 3.8 rpg (+0.5 to +0.6)
Matt Heldt — 3.4 to 4.0 rpg (+2.9 to +3.1)
Sacar Anim — 2.0 to 2.5 rpg (+1.6 to +2.1)
Without taking pace or possessions into account, these 6 returning players could (and I emphasize could) account for an extra 7.2 to 8.5 rebounds a game. Alright, here are the assumptions. And there are some big ones.
Luke and Jajuan improve their rebounding production by 15% to 20% in roughly the same number of minutes. Why it will happen: they're both seniors and finally pull it all together for their final season at Marquette. Why it won't happen: neither has ever shown that big a jump in their defensive rebounding percentage.
Moving on. Hannif and Sandy improve by 20% or a little better. Hannif because he's a stud — and because this level of production is roughly in line with Vander's rebounding output early in his career. Sandy — well, we just really, really need him to have a big senior year.
Matt's number isn't quite pulled out of a hat (although it's close). It's roughly based on the production we got from Otule once he was over his early injury problems and could contribute on a regular basis. Think Matt is at least as athletic, if not more so. Will he play the 10+ mpg needed to come close to these numbers? We'll see.
Sacar...now this one is a complete 1,000,000% guess. Assumes he's seeing consistent minutes in the regular rotation.
With the above in mind, Duane, Rowsey, Katin, Sam and Marcus would have to make up the remaining 1.2 to 2.7 extra rebounds a game between them. I don't know if this purely hypothetical exercise is worth much. Where I'm slightly reassured is that we have enough talent and bodies that a little improvement all around could go a long way. It'll have to be a team effort — no one player is going to come in and be Henry the Second.
Alright, I've steeled myself for the onslaught.
That would be pretty close to making up the two Ellensons' defensive rebounds. Making up for their rebounds still makes us a bad rebounding team. Otule was much bigger and much more athletic than Heldt, but I will take a center with two eyes over a center with one.
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Looking at rebounds and minutes played isn’t the best way to go about it, IMO.. since there’s better information out there or metrics that are relatively easy to calculate..
Yeah, Matt had a season-high 3 DR against Maine.. but that was a 104-67 win in an 82 possession game.. so was his DR% as good as it would be in a 65 possession game where the other team shot very well? Nawwww…
Heldt’s DR% was 11.6% and for a 6’10” that’s very low.
Fischer’s was 11.8%, a career-low, this past season. However, his other two years were only 12.8% and 12.6%, respectively. So, are there concerns that his DR% ceiling is low? Yup.
Heldt I think you still hold out hope for.. let’s get that to 17%, a’’ina?
Quick look so don’t quote this as Bible, but looks like ~70 BEast guys got 40% or more of their team minutes. Of those, 20 guys are taller than 6’7”.
How many of the 19 other guys that are taller than 6’7” had a better DR% than Fischer last season?
Zero.
Haanif had a DR% of 10.8%. For a 6’5” guy, I’m not wowed. (JjJ was at 11.2%).
Katin’s rebounding has been astoundingly low.
Henry’s DR% was excellent and frankly, Wally would have been our best returning rebounder.
Sandy was formidable at 15% in conference play. I think that can get him time on the court…
I just don’t know where the DR’s come from though.. other than a group effort.. I think you a) look to add a guy that can rebound, b) hope Matt can play some minutes and rebound, c) hope Fischer can show meaningful improvement.
Do I expect Fischer to improve much? Not really. Will he (no pun intended) rebound to his prior year numbers? I expect so. He won't be competing with a teammate who is a quality rebounder with Henry gone.
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CAUTION: The following contains massive speculation and forward-looking statements based on incomplete information and a highly questionable grasp of statistical metrics. With that out of the way, here's one possible blueprint for how this team could replace Henry's 9.7 rebounds a game:
Luke Fischer — 7.1 to 7.4 rpg (+0.9 to +1.2 over 2015-16)
Haanif Cheatham — 4.1 to 4.4 rpg (+0.7 to +1.0)
Sandy Cohen — 3.8 to 4.2 rpg (+0.6 to +1.0)
Jajuan Johnson — 3.7 to 3.8 rpg (+0.5 to +0.6)
Matt Heldt — 3.4 to 4.0 rpg (+2.9 to +3.1)
Sacar Anim — 2.0 to 2.5 rpg (+1.6 to +2.1)
Without taking pace or possessions into account, these 6 returning players could (and I emphasize could) account for an extra 7.2 to 8.5 rebounds a game. Alright, here are the assumptions. And there are some big ones.
Luke and Jajuan improve their rebounding production by 15% to 20% in roughly the same number of minutes. Why it will happen: they're both seniors and finally pull it all together for their final season at Marquette. Why it won't happen: neither has ever shown that big a jump in their defensive rebounding percentage.
Moving on. Hannif and Sandy improve by 20% or a little better. Hannif because he's a stud — and because this level of production is roughly in line with Vander's rebounding output early in his career. Sandy — well, we just really, really need him to have a big senior year.
Matt's number isn't quite pulled out of a hat (although it's close). It's roughly based on the production we got from Otule once he was over his early injury problems and could contribute on a regular basis. Think Matt is at least as athletic, if not more so. Will he play the 10+ mpg needed to come close to these numbers? We'll see.
Sacar...now this one is a complete 1,000,000% guess. Assumes he's seeing consistent minutes in the regular rotation.
With the above in mind, Duane, Rowsey, Katin, Sam and Marcus would have to make up the remaining 1.2 to 2.7 extra rebounds a game between them. I don't know if this purely hypothetical exercise is worth much. Where I'm slightly reassured is that we have enough talent and bodies that a little improvement all around could go a long way. It'll have to be a team effort — no one player is going to come in and be Henry the Second.
Alright, I've steeled myself for the onslaught.
Disclaimer: former journalism major trying to do math. BUT, if everyone you named hits the maximum mark you gave them (Luke at 7.4 and so on), and the little guys hit the max of 2.7 total that you gave them, that adds up to 29 rebounds per game for the team. Would have been good for 349th in the country last year from what I found. We are screwed if we are 3rd to last nationally in rebounding. I think (hope) we find a way to not suck that bad. For reference we averaged 36 per game last season, 176th nationally.
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Disclaimer: former journalism major trying to do math. BUT, if everyone you named hits the maximum mark you gave them (Luke at 7.4 and so on), and the little guys hit the max of 2.7 total that you gave them, that adds up to 29 rebounds per game for the team. Would have been good for 349th in the country last year from what I found. We are screwed if we are 3rd to last nationally in rebounding. I think (hope) we find a way to not suck that bad. For reference we averaged 36 per game last season, 176th nationally.
I focused on who seem to be the 6 leading contenders to improve their rebounding. But that doesn't include Traci, Duane, Katin, Rowsey, Sam or Marcus. To Jay Bee's point, all of this depends on who plays in the main rotation, how many minutes they get, what pace we play at, etc. Right now, everything is an unknown variable, to one degree or another; there are absolutely no known constants.
If we're playing more 4 out/1 in — with a lineup of say Traci, Rowsey, Jajuan, Katin and Luke — the defense will have a completely different dynamic than when Henry was on the court. Smaller, yes. But also quicker, faster to switch when needed, able to put more pressure on the ball and threaten passing lanes, quicker to close out on perimeter shooters. And, we have more depth so guys should stay fresher throughout the game.
Ultimately, how this team and defense comes together will depend on offseason development and coaching.
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Quick look so don’t quote this as Bible, but looks like ~70 BEast guys got 40% or more of their team minutes. Of those, 20 guys are taller than 6’7”.
How many of the 19 other guys that are taller than 6’7” had a better DR% than Fischer last season?
Zero.
Can you clarify this?
Of the 70/20, how many are returning?
Also, as written, sounds like Fischer had/has the best defensive rebounding percentage of any Big East player taller than 6-7. That can't be right, can it? Surely Delgado (6-9), Farr (6-10) and others had a better DR%.
Perhaps you meant to say that Luke was worse than everyone taller than 6-7.
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Can you clarify this?
Of the 70/20, how many are returning?
Also, as written, sounds like Fischer had/has the best defensive rebounding percentage of any Big East player taller than 6-7. That can't be right, can it? Surely Delgado (6-9), Farr (6-10) and others had a better DR%.
Perhaps you meant to say that Luke was worse than everyone taller than 6-7.
Cripes, sorry, my mistype. Yes, Fischer's was the lowest of the 20 guys taller than 6'7".
Those 20 = BEast guys, taller than 6'7", who played at least 40% of their team's available minutes in 2015-16 (full season).
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Cripes, sorry, my mistype. Yes, Fischer's was the lowest of the 20 guys taller than 6'7".
Those 20 = BEast guys, taller than 6'7", who played at least 40% of their team's available minutes in 2015-16 (full season).
Thanks. I figured that's what you meant.
So Luke has nowhere to go but up, right? I can't help it; I'm an optimist by nature.
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My mind keeps coming back to Luke, trying to figure out why he's not a better defensive rebounder.
I don't think effort, anticipation or reflexes have anything to do with it. He demonstrated all of the above throughout the season on the offensive end — often getting to a rebound first, showing mobility out to the top of the key in some cases, and deflecting it to a teammate if he couldn't secure it himself.
A couple years ago you could have pointed to the shoulder injury. If it was serious enough to need surgery, it likely limited his movement and possibly his strength. The twin towers lineup had its limitations last season — but that seemed to come into play more with offensive spacing than defensive rebounds.
Having worked with top big men like Okafor, I'd be interested to hear Wojo's take.
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My mind keeps coming back to Luke, trying to figure out why he's not a better defensive rebounder.
A couple things worked against him. They way they used him on ball screen coverage was far from ideal. Also, he had to help a ton when the guards couldn't keep their man in front of them. That took him out of rebounding position (and led to some of his foul difficulties).
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My mind keeps coming back to Luke, trying to figure out why he's not a better defensive rebounder.
I don't think effort, anticipation or reflexes have anything to do with it. He demonstrated all of the above throughout the season on the offensive end — often getting to a rebound first, showing mobility out to the top of the key in some cases, and deflecting it to a teammate if he couldn't secure it himself.
A couple years ago you could have pointed to the shoulder injury. If it was serious enough to need surgery, it likely limited his movement and possibly his strength. The twin towers lineup had its limitations last season — but that seemed to come into play more with offensive spacing than defensive rebounds.
Having worked with top big men like Okafor, I'd be interested to hear Wojo's take.
Wojo never worked with Okafor. He was already here.
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My mind keeps coming back to Luke, trying to figure out why he's not a better defensive rebounder.
He let Henry have all the easy ones.
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He let Henry have all the easy ones.
(https://media.giphy.com/media/12rcfb8VqKoF9e/giphy.gif)
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Wojo never worked with Okafor. He was already here.
Oops. Meant Jabari.
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Luke had almost as many offensive rebounds (100) as defensive (103) last year. With more experience and strength, I think he has the potential to improve his defensive rebounding. Obviously, that should be a big part of his focus this summer.
Our defensive rebounding strategy was to have Luke clear out for whoever was playing the 3 and 4 positions. It wasn't his job to get the rebound but to take away the other teams rebounder. That is why he had low defensive rebounding stats but high offensive rebounding.
Henry was a big beneficiary of Luke's clearing out.
Bottom line is Luke is a much better rebounder than his stats last year say; and Henry was not as good a rebounder as his stats indicate.
We won't be a great rebounding team next year, but we'll be fine. I expect a big rebounding year from JJJ and figure Luke (depending on team strategy) may likely average a double double.
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I am in the camp of those who say part of the reason Luke wasn't a better defensive rebounder was he had to slide over often to help when an offensive player drove past our guards.
If our guards and wings do a better job of keeping their men in front of them, it will add a few rebounds per game to Luke's total.
Easier said than done, of course.