MUScoop
MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: BM1090 on February 04, 2016, 02:01:17 PM
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So a few days ago I ran the numbers for Marquette going 10-8 and then 1-1 in the BET, for a final record of 22-11. The Wizard said that Marquette's projected RPI in that situation would be about 70. Today, I ran the same exact simulation, and it says Marquette's projected RPI would be about 63 (which would actually put us near the bubble *yeah it's not happening blah blah whatever, I'm dreaming*). I used the same BET opponents (Providence and then Xavier), assuming that 10-8 gave us a 6th place finish.
My question is, why the sudden jump in projections? Is it solely because Stetson, Maine, and SJSU got some road wins over the past week? I don't really understand the somewhat dramatic jump.
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Because RPI Wizard is in the business of projecting RPI, not the actual outcome of basketball games.
Also, keep an eye here:
http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=50140.0
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So a few days ago I ran the numbers for Marquette going 10-8 and then 1-1 in the BET, for a final record of 22-11. The Wizard said that Marquette's projected RPI in that situation would be about 70. Today, I ran the same exact simulation, and it says Marquette's projected RPI would be about 63 (which would actually put us near the bubble *yeah it's not happening blah blah whatever, I'm dreaming*). I used the same BET opponents (Providence and then Xavier), assuming that 10-8 gave us a 6th place finish.
My question is, why the sudden jump in projections? Is it solely because Stetson, Maine, and SJSU got some road wins over the past week? I don't really understand the somewhat dramatic jump.
I'm curious..does the wizard give you a projected RPI index number...the number between 0.0000 and 1.0000? If so, would be interested to know what it came out to for the 70 & the 63.
note: I've seen a lot of bad info out there on how the RPI is calculated...saw a wiki post that had a badly calculated example in it. We've all noticed the discrepancies between ESPN, CBS, NCAA, etc... RPI numbers.
One misunderstanding I often see is that the RPI doesn't care "who you beat". It cares "who you play" and whether you win or lose at home or away. <corrected>
For example if you play DePaul and Villanova at home and win one and lose one....it doesn't matter in the RPI if you beat Villanova and lost to DePaul or Beat DePaul and lost to Villanova.....as long as you played both and both were at home....the RPI number will be the same.
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I'm curious..does the wizard give you a projected RPI index number...the number between 0.0000 and 1.0000? If so, would be interested to know what it came out to for the 70 & the 63.
note: I've seen a lot of bad info out there on how the RPI is calculated...saw a wiki post that had a badly calculated example in it. We've all noticed the discrepancies between ESPN, CBS, NCAA, etc... RPI numbers.
One misunderstanding I often see is that the RPI doesn't care "who you beat". It cares "who you play" and whether you win or lose at home or not.
For example if you play DePaul and Villanova at home and win one and lose one....it doesn't matter in the RPI if you beat Villanova and lost to DePaul or Beat DePaul and lost to Villanova.....as long as you played both and both were at home....the RPI number will be the same.
I'm sure it calculates one, but it does not give it. It gives RPI and SOS.
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If you play good non-conference teams, you just might get decent to good recruits.
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If you play good non-conference teams, you just might get decent to good recruits.
Relevant
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I think people should stop dreaming about making the NCAA this year.
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I think people should stop dreaming about making the NCAA this year.
I think that I'm trying to understand how the system/projections works, and even if I'm dreaming, who cares? I know it's extremely unlikely, but until we lose our 9th conference game I'm going to hold out some hope. And then when the BET starts I'll probably have more irrational hope.
I don't have unrealistic expectations of this team and then vent here when the team doesn't meet them, I'm just going to hope for the best until it's no longer possible.
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I think people should stop dreaming about making the NCAA this year.
I'm dreaming about making the NIT this year. Though I wouldn't begrudge Marquette if they finished with 17-19 wins and accepted a CBI invitation.
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RPI itself (i.e. the formula) is quite straightforward... if you look at the first four paragraphs and the first sentence of the fifth on Wikipedia, it gives an accurate framework:
The current and commonly used formula for determining the RPI of a college basketball team at any given time is as follows.
RPI = (WP * 0.25) + (OWP * 0.50) + (OOWP * 0.25)
where WP is Winning Percentage, OWP is Opponents' Winning Percentage and OOWP is Opponents' Opponents' Winning Percentage.
The WP is calculated by taking a team's wins divided by the number of games it has played (i.e. wins plus losses).
For Division 1 NCAA Men's basketball, the WP factor of the RPI was updated in 2004 to account for differences in home, away, and neutral games. A home win now counts as 0.6 win, while a road win counts as 1.4 wins. Inversely, a home loss equals 1.4 losses, while a road loss counts as 0.6 loss. A neutral game counts as 1 win or 1 loss.
Pretty simple, right?
Well, it's both the interpretation and execution of the formula that leads to discrepancies:
The calculation of your OWP excludes results against Team A... that much is simple. Where things get tricky is in calculating the OOWP where results against Team A are also excluded, but some have interpreted that OOWP also excludes games against your opponents.
For example, assume Marquette is Team A, and we'll use Belmont and ASU for demonstration. All three teams played each other at the beginning of the season. Belmont then beat Western Kentucky and ASU lost to Sacramento State (even though ASU actually played two other games before MU and MU played three before ASU, let's assume here that those games didn't take place and each team, in addition to each other, played only one other game). So if you calculated MU's RPI after three games, it would have looked like this:
25%
MU home loss to Belmont = 1.4 losses
MU home win vs. IUPUI = 0.6 wins
MU neutral win vs. ASU = 1.0 win
MU's WP = (0.6 + 1.0) / (1.4 + 0.6 + 1.0) = 0.5333
50%
Belmont WP (exclude game vs. MU): 1-1 (0.500)
ASU WP (exclude game vs. MU): 1-1 (0.500)
IUPUI WP (exclude game vs. MU): 1-1 (0.500)
Average = 0.5000
25%
Belmont's OWP
- ASU (exclude ASU vs. MU): 1-1 (0.500)
- WKU: 1-2 (.333)
ASU's OWP
- Belmont (exclude Belmont vs. MU): 1-1 (0.500)
- Sac State: 3-0 (1.000)
IUPUI OWP
- Indiana State: 2-1 (.6667)
- NC State: 2-1 (.6667)
Discrepancy #1: Some RPI calculations take the average of the winning percentages, others take the weighted average. In this case, if you simply average the four OOWP above, you get .6111; however, if you take the overall records (10-6) and then calculate OOWP, you get .6250.
Discrepancy #2: In calculating OOWP, some RPI calculations exclude both the game vs. Team A and the game vs. Team A's opponent. So OOWP would look like this:
25%
Belmont's OWP
- ASU (exclude ASU vs. MU and ASU vs. Belmont): 0-1 (0.000)
- WKU (exclude WKU vs. Belmont): 1-1 (.500)
ASU's OWP
- Belmont (exclude Belmont vs. MU and Belmont vs. ASU): 1-0 (0.000)
- Sac State (exclude Sac St vs. ASU) : 2-0 (1.000)
IUPUI OWP
- Indiana State (exclude ISU vs. IUPUI): 2-1 (.6667)
- NC State (exclude NCSt vs. IUPUI): 2-0 (1.000)
Again, if you simply average the OOWP's, you get .5278. If you aggregate records (8-3) and then calculate OOWP, you get .7273.
So we have four possible numbers for OOWP (in purple), which gives us four different possibilities for MU's RPI: .5361, .5396, .5153, and .5652. The variance between the high and low in .0499... that doesn't seem like much, but even though the variance would smooth as the season goes on, right now, .0499 is the difference between UCONN at #50 and Ohio at #109.
If you've made it this far (good for you!), you can appreciate how complex the formula is just for one team after three games... imagine 350 teams after 30 games. Of course, the computers do all the work, but each service executes the formula differently because, surprise, the NCAA has never actually revealed their RPI formula with this level of detail, so discrepancies will exist.
And besides all of that... keep in mind that the RPI calculation depends on total accuracy in game results and location, which leads us to various possibilities for Discrepancy #3:
Example 1: Someone over at RPI Wizard looking solely at the box scores sees OU vs. Villanova and assumes that as a home game for Nova, overlooking the fact that it was played in Honolulu.
Example 2: Butler plays Purdue at Conseco (Banker's Life, whatever). Guy entering scores for CBS Sports sees the game was played in Indianapolis but not at Hinkle so he logs it as a home game for Butler (because it was played in Indy), while another logs it as a neutral site game.
Example 3: MU game vs. St John's postponed because of snow. But Carny isn't available the next day, so game is moved to the Prudential Center... one service logs it as a home game for SJU, another logs it as a neutral site for both teams, and one service logs it in as an away game for both teams.
Not so simple, and even the slightest of discrepancies can materially screw with the rankings. Again, by the end of the season, all of this should smooth out, but only the NCAA's calc matters at the end of the day.
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I think people should stop dreaming about making the NCAA this year.
I have no expectations of Marquette making the NCAA tournament this year. Right now, we haven't won enough games against quality opponents, there are too many teams ahead of us in the standings and we haven't shown clear signs of improvement.
That's all perfectly clear.
But if you've been a sports fan for any amount of time, it's also perfectly clear that anything can happen. Teams come back from 20-point halftime deficits. They can pull together for an unexpected late-season run. Or they can hit on the right combination of ideal match-ups and great play to win a conference tournament (which Marquette has done in the past).
Odds are, we won't beat Xavier. Or finish in the top 5 in the conference. Or win the Big East tournament. But there's always a chance. I think that's ultimately one of the biggest reasons for being a sports fan — the possibility of seeing something that nobody predicted or expected.
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I think that I'm trying to understand how the system/projections works, and even if I'm dreaming, who cares? I know it's extremely unlikely, but until we lose our 9th conference game I'm going to hold out some hope. And then when the BET starts I'll probably have more irrational hope.
I don't have unrealistic expectations of this team and then vent here when the team doesn't meet them, I'm just going to hope for the best until it's no longer possible.
Touche, my friend, touche.
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I have no expectations of Marquette making the NCAA tournament this year. Right now, we haven't won enough games against quality opponents, there are too many teams ahead of us in the standings and we haven't shown clear signs of improvement.
While I will not disagree with you on the bolded parts, you couldn't be more wrong that MU doesn't have enough quality wins on its resume. It has five, one of which (PC) would be considered a "signature" or "marquee" win, not to mention that Becky win is looking better every day.
@ Providence
@ Wisconsin
vs. ASU (neutral)
vs. LSU (neutral)
vs. Butler
One step further, MU's problem isn't even the "bad losses," of which it has only one (DePaul #140)... teams have received at-large bids with two or three bad losses before, even with losses vs. >200 teams.
Heck, it's not even the number of losses... five of their eight losses are against the top 50, and three of those are against the top 7 teams. The Georgetown loss was a road game, and sure, the Belmont loss sucks, but they're still a top 100 team and they're leading the OVC running away.
Let's be clear that Marquette's resume has all the hallmarks of a bubble contender right now except one... RPI. Six of their remaining nine wins are against the bottom 100, and the best win of the remaining three is IUPUI at #171.
Unfortunately, a #102 RPI rank is going to get a lot of doors slammed in your face. But if you redacted RPI, MU's resume can hold its own against any other bubble contender.
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While I will not disagree with you on the bolded parts, you couldn't be more wrong that MU doesn't have enough quality wins on its resume. It has five, one of which (PC) would be considered a "signature" or "marquee" win, not to mention that Becky win is looking better every day.
@ Providence
@ Wisconsin
vs. ASU (neutral)
vs. LSU (neutral)
vs. Butler
One step further, MU's problem isn't even the "bad losses," of which it has only one (DePaul #140)... teams have received at-large bids with two or three bad losses before, even with losses vs. >200 teams.
Heck, it's not even the number of losses... five of their eight losses are against the top 50, and three of those are against the top 7 teams. The Georgetown loss was a road game, and sure, the Belmont loss sucks, but they're still a top 100 team and they're leading the OVC running away.
Let's be clear that Marquette's resume has all the hallmarks of a bubble contender right now except one... RPI. Six of their remaining nine wins are against the bottom 100, and the best win of the remaining three is IUPUI at #171.
Unfortunately, a #102 RPI rank is going to get a lot of doors slammed in your face. But if you redacted RPI, MU's resume can hold its own against any other bubble contender.
It pains me how accurate this is, because it means that AT THIS POINT (likely to change with some more losses) our schedule is the only thing costing us an NCAA bid.
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Let's be clear that Marquette's resume has all the hallmarks of a bubble contender right now except one... RPI
I'm guessing you don't know what the NCAA checklist is?
- SOS (139)
- Non conference SOS (329)
- Kenpom (100's)
- Sagarin
- Conference record (4-6)
- true road record (3-3)
Remaining checklist:
- regional advisory of coaches
- D1 record
- Non conference record
- injury to key player
- record vs teams in consideration
- record vs tourney teams
Source: http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/media-center/mens-basketball-selections-101-selections
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I'm guessing you don't know what the NCAA checklist is?
- SOS (139)
- Non conference SOS (329)
- Kenpom (100's)
- Sagarin
- Conference record (4-6)
- true road record (3-3)
Remaining checklist:
- regional advisory of coaches
- D1 record
- Non conference record
- injury to key player
- record vs teams in consideration
- record vs tourney teams
Source: http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/media-center/mens-basketball-selections-101-selections
To be fair, the poor SOS and noncon SOS numbers was a big part of Benny's point and the main reason why are RPI is so poor. But I agree with you based on what I've watched we sure don't look like an NCAA team. But I think we'd be on the ned of some bubble watches with a better non-con SOS and the resulting better RPI.
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I'm guessing you don't know what the NCAA checklist is?
- SOS (139)
- Non conference SOS (329)
- Kenpom (100's)
- Sagarin
- Conference record (4-6)
- true road record (3-3)
Remaining checklist:
- regional advisory of coaches
- D1 record
- Non conference record
- injury to key player
- record vs teams in consideration
- record vs tourney teams
Source: http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/media-center/mens-basketball-selections-101-selections
I'm guessing you don't understand how RPI, SOS, Sagarin and KenPom are both a) related and b) utilized by the committee.
Once you've read up on the selection process and procedures, let me know.
At least you get credit for not putting last 12 games on your checklist. Or do you?
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1-5 against the top 50 isn't going to impress anyone.
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1-5 against the top 50 isn't going to impress anyone.
But, not even counting any potential future wins, that could be 3 or 4 wins by the end of the year (LSU, Butler, Wisconsin) with 3 of them away from home.
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I think that I'm trying to understand how the system/projections works, and even if I'm dreaming, who cares? I know it's extremely unlikely, but until we lose our 9th conference game I'm going to hold out some hope. And then when the BET starts I'll probably have more irrational hope.
I don't have unrealistic expectations of this team and then vent here when the team doesn't meet them, I'm just going to hope for the best until it's no longer possible.
+1
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...
Discrepancy #1: Some RPI calculations take the average of the winning percentages, others take the weighted average. In this case, if you simply average the four OOWP above, you get .6111; however, if you take the overall records (10-6) and then calculate OOWP, you get .6250.
Discrepancy #2: In calculating OOWP, some RPI calculations exclude both the game vs. Team A and the game vs. Team A's opponent.
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Appreciate the thoughts....i would note the ncaa way in discrepancy 1 is the simple avg. and ignore just Team A in discrepancy 2.
Additional differences occur in interpreting the D1 status of teams (ncaa knows best) and the timing of the rpi calc from cbs to espn to whatever....do they include same set of games. Also if teams play each other more than once, thats considered separate instances and included multiple times in calculations accordingly.
The D1 thing might make a difference with MU OWP and OOWP as many of the cupcakes live on the edge of D1 ;)
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To be clear, there is only 1 RPI. It's the NCAA's calc. Some websites that try to duplicate it do a good job. Others are consistently off.
For example if you play DePaul and Villanova at home and win one and lose one....it doesn't matter in the RPI if you beat Villanova and lost to DePaul or Beat DePaul and lost to Villanova.....as long as you played both and both were at home....the RPI number will be the same.
This is untrue.
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To be clear, there is only 1 RPI. It's the NCAA's calc. Some websites that try to duplicate it do a good job. Others are consistently off.
This is untrue.
No it is true.
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No it is true.
No, it's not. The difference would come into play in the opponents' opponents' calculation, which is NOT adjusted for games against you (unlike the opponents' win-loss record). I'll happily wager $100,000 on this if you'd like.
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I'm guessing you don't understand how RPI, SOS, Sagarin and KenPom are both a) related and b) utilized by the committee.
Once you've read up on the selection process and procedures, let me know.
At least you get credit for not putting last 12 games on your checklist. Or do you?
I'm just being objective. Take away our MU allegiance and you wouldn't be making a case for this team being a tourney team
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Just for sh*ts and gigs, but mainly cause its Monday and I don't feel like working.
11-7; win out in BE play
BET win over Providence / loss to Nova
23-10 / RPI 58 / SOS 70
11-7; win out in BE play
BET loss to Providence
22-10 / RPI 64 / SOS 82
10-8; remaining loss to Nova
BET win over Seton Hall, Loss to X
22-11/ RPI 67 / SOS 73
10-8; remaining loss to Nova
BET wins over Seton Hall and X; Loss to Nova in Championship
23-11 / RPI 60 / SOS 60
9-9; remaining losses to Nova and @ Butler
BET wins over St. Johns; Loss to X
21-12/ RPI 86 / SOS 91
9-9; remaining losses to Nova and @ Butler
BET wins over St. Johns, X, Seton Hall; Loss to Nova
23-12/ RPI 67 / SOS 72
8-10; remaining loses to Nova, @ Creighton, @ Butler
BET wins over SJU, X, Seton Hall; Loss to Nova
22-13 / RPI 76 / SIS 72
IMO, Green is likely in; Blue is last 4 in / first four out territory / red or anything worse is out.
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I would change your last green scenario (9-9 with 3 BET wins) to blue. But other than that I agree. I think 12 BE wins total are needed unless they win out in the regular season. 11-7 with a 7 game winning streak would probably do it.
Unlikely, but who cares. Starts Wednesday!
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I would change your last green scenario (9-9 with 3 BET wins) to blue. But other than that I agree. I think 12 BE wins total are needed unless they win out in the regular season. 11-7 with a 7 game winning streak would probably do it.
Unlikely, but who cares. Starts Wednesday!
Haha yeah, I did before you posted. I read through it again and thought the same thing. The RPI is ugly, but that'd be a tough team to leave out.
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I'm just being objective. Take away our MU allegiance and you wouldn't be making a case for this team being a tourney team
I'm advocating nothing of the sort. What I'm saying is take away RPI (and any related metrics) and MU has a resume on par with any bubble team right now.
Hell, look at Duke's resume before tonight... 8th in their conference, best wins are vs. VCU (n) and IU (h). 2-5 vs RPI-50. Lost at Clemson (78). And they were a projected 6 seed before tonight.
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RPI up to 95 after a win tonight. Finally cracked the top 100.
http://www.rpiforecast.com/live-rpi.html
Also, Gottleib thinks we can get in with 9-9 in the BE. He's wrong (unless the numbers drastically change) but good publicity I guess?
Doug Gottlieb @GottliebShow 1h1 hour ago
#Marquette has a shot at the tourney now. Hope everyone gets a chance to see Ellenson.
.500 in league Doug Gottlieb added,
CJ @CjFMAHitsBombs
@GottliebShow you really think #mubb has a chance still? What do they have to do?
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RPI up to 95 after a win tonight. Finally cracked the top 100.
http://www.rpiforecast.com/live-rpi.html
Also, Gottleib thinks we can get in with 9-9 in the BE. He's wrong (unless the numbers drastically change) but good publicity I guess?
Doug Gottlieb @GottliebShow 1h1 hour ago
#Marquette has a shot at the tourney now. Hope everyone gets a chance to see Ellenson.
.500 in league Doug Gottlieb added,
CJ @CjFMAHitsBombs
@GottliebShow you really think #mubb has a chance still? What do they have to do?
9-9 will get them in the conversation. As lame as it sounds, I do think Henry (and the simple fact that we are young) will help us. If there are 8 teams that the committee is choosing between for the last four in, and we're one of them, you have imagine they'll see a young MU team that started slow, but bounced back well in the 2nd half, and some real star power in Ellenson. 10-8 would be better, obviously, but 9-9 gives us a chance. It would require the committee to dismiss our buy game SOS a bit, but honestly, when looking at it objectively, they should. MU replaces those 300+ RPI games with teams between 200-250, they still likely win them all and their computer numbers would now longer be an issue.
That said, still alot of work to do. The next three are must wins.
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If they throw out the RPI, then 9-9 gets us in the conversation. My biggest worry in that regard is when they interview the Selection Committee chair, every year they talk about whether teams challenged themselves in non-con play.
Whatever happens, NCAA, NIT, CBI, or no postseason, this year is a positive. We're guaranteed no worse than a .500 record and have more league wins than a year ago. That's with a young team that will should continue improving for the next few years.
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If they throw out the RPI, then 9-9 gets us in the conversation. My biggest worry in that regard is when they interview the Selection Committee chair, every year they talk about whether teams challenged themselves in non-con play.
Granted, but hasn't that conversation mostly been applied to mid-major teams like Colorado State whose toughest opponents in non-con last year were Georgia State, UTEP, and UCSB despite a non-con SOS of #76? I know the committee gives credit to teams who challenge themselves in non-con, but I don't think they're necessarily punishing teams just because they didn't. In other words, teams are not being snubbed just because they had poor non-con schedules... there's always another rationale.
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Granted, but hasn't that conversation mostly been applied to mid-major teams like Colorado State whose toughest opponents in non-con last year were Georgia State, UTEP, and UCSB despite a non-con SOS of #76? I know the committee gives credit to teams who challenge themselves in non-con, but I don't think they're necessarily punishing teams just because they didn't. In other words, teams are not being snubbed just because they had poor non-con schedules... there's always another rationale.
This, plus MU didn't exactly play a cake walk schedule. Iowa, LSU, Wisconsin, Arizona State, Belmont, and even IUPUI all very good to respectable teams.
MU's problem is the bottom feeders on the schedule were/are the dregs on the NCAA - but like I said earlier, you replace Grambling (346), Maine (303), San Jose(297), Chicago State (344) and Presbyterian (335) with Gardner Webb (201), Wagner (204), Air Force (208), Canisius (210) and Fairleigh Dickinson (212), MU's record is likely the same but their computer numbers would be much, much better. This is why RPI/SOS is a very flawed stat.
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This, plus MU didn't exactly play a cake walk schedule. Iowa, LSU, Wisconsin, Arizona State, Belmont, and even IUPUI all very good to respectable teams.
MU's problem is the bottom feeders on the schedule were/are the dregs on the NCAA - but like I said earlier, you replace Grambling (346), Maine (303), San Jose(297), Chicago State (344) and Presbyterian (335) with Gardner Webb (201), Wagner (204), Air Force (208), Canisius (210) and Fairleigh Dickinson (212), MU's record is likely the same but their computer numbers would be much, much better. This is why RPI/SOS is a very flawed stat.
I ran the numbers according to RPI Wizard, and MU's RPI/SOS would be 70/54 right now instead of 95/92. Enormous difference.
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I ran the numbers according to RPI Wizard, and MU's RPI/SOS would be 70/54 right now instead of 95/92. Enormous difference.
What is the RPI if MU happened to lose one of those games? With an inexperienced team such as this, a December loss to a 200 RPI team is possible.
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What is the RPI if MU happened to lose one of those games? With an inexperienced team such as this, a December loss to a 200 RPI team is possible.
Don't know (feel free to run the numbers), but I sort of doubt they'd lose one of the games. Those teams are not good at basketball. My guess is RPI would fall 8-10 spots.
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Earlier today, I ran numbers substituting four Marquette opponents for other mid-major/low-major teams that played road games the same nights we played. I only did four because you always have some real bottom feeders. Here are the changes, with the kenpom and RPI numbers in parentheses after.
.
- Dec. 2: Vermont (184/161) instead of Grambling (348/347)
- Dec. 5: Kent State (170/105) instead of Maine (322/303)
- Dec. 21: New Hampshire (262/195) instead of Chicago State (344/345)
- Dec. 27: Fairfield (209/173) instead of Presbyterian (312/335)
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Next...here are the considerations of how this would affect our RPI according to RPIWizard. I have three possibilities for each, the "real" schedule and results based on what happens from here on out, the hypothetical schedule had we gone 4-0 assuming nothing else changed, and the hypothetical schedule assuming we had lost to Kent State (the most likely loss of the four teams above):
18-13 (7-11)
Actual Schedule -- RPI: 115 / SOS: 92
New Schedule -- RPI: 78 / SOS: 39
3-1 Schedule -- RPI: 91 / SOS: 39 **17-14 (7-11)**
19-12 (8-10)
Actual Schedule -- RPI: 97 / SOS: 92
New Schedule -- RPI: 66 / SOS: 39
3-1 Schedule -- RPI: 77 / SOS: 39 **18-13 (8-10)**
20-11 (9-9)
Actual Schedule -- RPI: 83 / SOS: 92
New Schedule -- RPI: 62 / SOS: 39
3-1 Schedule -- RPI: 67 / SOS: 39 **19-12 (9-9)**
21-10 (10-8)
Actual Schedule -- RPI: 74 / SOS: 92
New Schedule -- RPI: 45 / SOS: 39
3-1 Schedule -- RPI: 63 / SOS: 39 **20-11 (10-8)**
22-9 (11-7)
Actual Schedule -- RPI: 65 / SOS: 92
New Schedule -- RPI: 30 / SOS: 39
3-1 Schedule -- RPI: 47 / SOS: 39 **21-10 (11-7)**
So...what's done is done. There's nothing that can change it now. I'm not writing this to bitch about the schedule. I'm simply using this to address the question that was asked.
Based on the real schedule, if you strictly go by historical numbers of what RPI was in and out, we will need to win out to be on the bubble. I know plenty of people are pushing the 10-8 is good enough narrative, but I don't believe any team with a RPI in the 70s has earned an at-large bid since the 1990s (New Mexico in 1997, maybe?). 20 or 21 total wins should have us safely invited to the NIT, but if we end up with a losing conference record (3-3 from here on out) we are likely going to be left out of the NIT. Don't forget, the 2014 Marquette team was left out of the NIT with a 94 RPI and better SOS than this year's team will have.
Based on the hypothetical schedule assuming we win all four of those games, we would only need to go 20-11 to be likely in. The average difference of the old schedule and the new is 30 positions in the RPI (bear in mind that's not the actual percentage point numbers, just what RPIWizard spit out). Not only that, but the 10-8 record that many people think would give us a shot (again, I disagree) would make us a lock had we changed those four games. No way a 21 win big East team with a winning league record and 45 RPI gets left home.
Then we have the most interesting scenario in my opinion, which is if we had played those four games and gone 3-1. The adjusted record is included in that line. The SOS would not change, but the RPI would. That said, 19-12 (9-9) would still have us on the bubble (likely out) with a 67 RPI and 20-11 (10-8) would give us a decent shot. Even with a loss, we would still looking at an RPI improvement of 17.8 positions on average and a massively better SOS.
One more note. While the validity of RPIWizard has yet to be determined, if we win out and get the 4-seed, we still may not be a lock, at least if you consider the history of the RPI. Lose that first game (to Butler) at MSG and we're looking at an RPI of 66. That's dangerously low. Even if we beat Butler and lose the next game to Villanova, we'd only have a 61 RPI. And that's if we don't lose another game until we play Villanova in the Big East Tournament semifinals.
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I was in the just win and the schedule will figure itself out camp. Upon further review, I must admit I was wrong. If we had picked our cupcakes better, we would have had a greater margin for error. This team might be hitting its stride but asking it to win enough to counteract the low rpi is just not a reasonable expectation
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Maybe a few committee members have an unreasonably woodie for Ben Simmons like so many people seem to and they give MU extra credit for beating them on a neutral court.
Nonetheless.. my stance is: MU needs to win the next two.. THEN we START to talk about the long road ahead in order to make the tourney.
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Maybe a few committee members have an unreasonably woodie for Ben Simmons like so many people seem to and they give MU extra credit for beating them on a neutral court.
Nonetheless.. my stance is: MU needs to win the next two.. THEN we START to talk about the long road ahead in order to make the tourney.
What's wrong with Gophs, Jay Bee? Richie on his way our?
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I am not predicting we will do it, but if you beat Creighton twice, DePaul, Georgetown and Butler it gets you to 10 wins. In that scenario the NCAA could not pick Providence, Butler or Creighton over MU, because MU will of swept those teams. Split with Georgetown adds a loss to the several losses Georgetown already has. Assuming a loss to Villanova we will of been swept by Villanova, Xavier and Seton Hall. In this scenario I think we end up in the 4/5 game and a win there gets us in. The loser of the 4/5 game may not get a bid. MU playing well down the stretch might mean the Big East gets only 4 bids.
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Head to head is a very dicey argument when it comes to a resume. Providence would only have one bad loss (DePaul), have played better against a tougher schedule, and wins over Arizona and Villanova, both better than Marquette's best win. Butler would have no bad losses, played better against a tougher schedule, and have a win over Purdue that's better than any of ours. Creighton is more comparable with only a slightly tougher schedule but worse record, though the Xavier win is nice.
This all assumes the same conference record, but if that's equal, I'd expect Providence and Butler to both get in ahead of us.
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If we tank in the last 6 games, Providence will have three bad losses and maybe four, because they could lose to DePaul again. They are 6-6 and I predict they will be 6-9 after losing to Georgetown, Xavier and Seton Hall in their next three games. On the flip side, if Providence could turn things around then our two victories against them become more valuable. Providence is overrated, because every one sees how good Dunn and Bentil are and then assume Providence is deserving of their ranking. As the season goes on teams are better able to handle a two star team, so the teams that Providence were able to beat early on are now better equipped to handle them.
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dropped from 95 to 99 tonight. Our non conference opponents (Iowa, Stetson, Presbyterian, Maine, IUPUI) went 0-5
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What's wrong with Gophs, Jay Bee? Richie on his way our?
It's really bad. I think a part is his surroundings. If I was an assistant, that team is markedly better.
You give him a year... and we see how things go next year + where recruiting is at in a year (including Matthew Hurt '19 or '18)........
I still think Richard has a chance to succeed... needs the right help
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dropped from 95 to 99 tonight. Our non conference opponents (Iowa, Stetson, Presbyterian, Maine, IUPUI) went 0-5
Thanks a lot guys!!
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Based on the real schedule, if you strictly go by historical numbers of what RPI was in and out, we will need to win out to be on the bubble. I know plenty of people are pushing the 10-8 is good enough narrative, but I don't believe any team with a RPI in the 70s has earned an at-large bid since the 1990s (New Mexico in 1997, maybe?). 20 or 21 total wins should have us safely invited to the NIT, but if we end up with a losing conference record (3-3 from here on out) we are likely going to be left out of the NIT. Don't forget, the 2014 Marquette team was left out of the NIT with a 94 RPI and better SOS than this year's team will have.
And I believe the lowest Kenpom ever to make the tourney is in the 60's? Marquette is currently 105
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If we tank in the last 6 games, Providence will have three bad losses and maybe four, because they could lose to DePaul again. They are 6-6 and I predict they will be 6-9 after losing to Georgetown, Xavier and Seton Hall in their next three games. On the flip side, if Providence could turn things around then our two victories against them become more valuable. Providence is overrated, because every one sees how good Dunn and Bentil are and then assume Providence is deserving of their ranking. As the season goes on teams are better able to handle a two star team, so the teams that Providence were able to beat early on are now better equipped to handle them.
But your comment was Providence getting in ahead of us. If we tank the last six, we won't be getting in anywhere so the point is moot.
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Brew, thanks for doing the analysis. A lot of us have been pointing out that our horrible choice of cupcakes is going to kill our NCAA chances, and the hard numbers help point that out. Hopefully we can get to at least 10-8 to give the committee a hard choice and see what they do. I assume Wojo, Broeker and Scholl must realize all this also, so if we can't get in at 10-8 there better be changes for next years schedule.
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There was never any plan to make the NCAA this season, its all about making HE return in order to make the NCAA and play a year 2 with Wally.
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No, it's not. The difference would come into play in the opponents' opponents' calculation, which is NOT adjusted for games against you (unlike the opponents' win-loss record). I'll happily wager $100,000 on this if you'd like.
you are correct...as for the $100K...in the immortal words of Sky Masterson (quoting his dad I think):
"One of these days, a guy is going to show you a brand-new deck of cards on which the seal is not yet broken.
Then this guy is going to offer to bet you that he can make the jack of spades jump out of this brand-new deck of cards and squirt cider in your ear.
But, son, you do not accept this bet because, as sure as you stand there, you're going to wind up with an ear full of cider."
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There was never any plan to make the NCAA this season, its all about making HE return in order to make the NCAA and play a year 2 with Wally.
+1
I think everyone realized that an NCAA bid would have been a huge accomplishment. This season was about growth.
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Just for the hell of it, I ran the numbers this afternoon.
If MU were to win out in BE play (10-8), get the 6 seed in the BET and play Seton Hall (W) / Xavier (W) / Nova (L), they would finish 23-11 with an RPI of 64 and SOS of 66, per the RPI Wizard.
Yes, I know this won't happen, just throwing it out there for the dreamers.
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Just for the hell of it, I ran the numbers this afternoon.
If MU were to win out in BE play (10-8), get the 6 seed in the BET and play Seton Hall (W) / Xavier (W) / Nova (L), they would finish 23-11 with an RPI of 64 and SOS of 66, per the RPI Wizard.
Yes, I know this won't happen, just throwing it out there for the dreamers.
If we won out, got the 5 seed, Beat Providence and then lost to Nova in the 2nd round, we'd be 22-11 with an RPI of 69 and SOS of 73. Very unlikely we get in in that scenario but it's not completely unprecedented. So basically, to have any hopes of an at large we'd need to win the next 6 games. To have a 50/50 shot we'd have to win the next 7.
If we went 4-1 to finish (9-9) and then beat DePaul, Nova, Providence in the BET and lost in the final to Xavier, we would finish with an RPI of 70 and a SOS of 73. Again, unlikely but not completely unprecedented.
Obviously all these numbers are estimated, but there are still a select few scenarios that we'd have a small shot at an at large berth.
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If we won out, got the 5 seed, Beat Providence and then lost to Nova in the 2nd round, we'd be 22-11 with an RPI of 69 and SOS of 73. Very unlikely we get in in that scenario but it's not completely unprecedented. So basically, to have any hopes of an at large we'd need to win the next 6 games. To have a 50/50 shot we'd have to win the next 7.
If we went 4-1 to finish (9-9) and then beat DePaul, Nova, Providence in the BET and lost in the final to Xavier, we would finish with an RPI of 70 and a SOS of 73. Again, unlikely but not completely unprecedented.
Obviously all these numbers are estimated, but there are still a select few scenarios that we'd have a small shot at an at large berth.
I haven't tried to look at the other teams schedules, but if we were to win out, does the 5 seed look more likely than the 6?
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I haven't tried to look at the other teams schedules, but if we were to win out, does the 5 seed look more likely than the 6?
I would say yes. If we win out we would pretty much win any tiebreaker with Butler, Providence or Georgetown, as we'd have a 5-1 record against those three teams. Same goes if we finish 9-9 but beat Georgetown and Butler along the way.
I have no idea which would be more likely, but we definitely would win most tiebreakers.
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I would say yes. If we win out we would pretty much win any tiebreaker with Butler, Providence or Georgetown, as we'd have a 5-1 record against those three times. Same goes if we finish 9-9 but beat Georgetown and Butler along the way.
I have no idea which would be more likely, but we definitely would win most tiebreakers.
I know you'alls are just playing with the hypotheticals, but I don't think we need to be worried about whether we get the 5 or 6.
I'm pulling for the 7. Would like to feel like we have a chance in round 2 should we make it there. Nova seems untouchable right now.
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Nova seems untouchable right now.
Which would make a win all the more sweeter.
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Just for the hell of it, I ran the numbers this afternoon.
If MU were to win out in BE play (10-8), get the 6 seed in the BET and play Seton Hall (W) / Xavier (W) / Nova (L), they would finish 23-11 with an RPI of 64 and SOS of 66, per the RPI Wizard.
Yes, I know this won't happen, just throwing it out there for the dreamers.
And what's sad is that would still only have us on the bubble, hoping to be playing in Dayton. It would guarantee we got a NIT berth, however. So if we don't lose another game until March 12 with our only loss in the BET Title Game to Villanova, we'll be on pins and needles throughout the Selection Show.
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Honestly, I'd be content with finishing in the 60s/70s and running the tables in the NIT. Or cross your fingers for a table run in the BET... that'd be great, too.
In other words, my new goal (hope) for the season is two championships in NYC.
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And what's sad is that would still only have us on the bubble, hoping to be playing in Dayton. It would guarantee we got a NIT berth, however. So if we don't lose another game until March 12 with our only loss in the BET Title Game to Villanova, we'll be on pins and needles throughout the Selection Show.
What do you think of this scenario? What % chance on Selection Sunday? 10%?
If we went 4-1 to finish (9-9) and then beat DePaul, Nova, Providence in the BET and lost in the final to Xavier, we would finish with an RPI of 70 and a SOS of 73. Again, unlikely but not completely unprecedented.
Also, if we had won at home against Creighton or DePaul our projected RPI jumps 6 spots....so that hurts a bit.
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Just for the hell of it, I ran the numbers this afternoon.
If MU were to win out in BE play (10-8), get the 6 seed in the BET and play Seton Hall (W) / Xavier (W) / Nova (L), they would finish 23-11 with an RPI of 64 and SOS of 66, per the RPI Wizard.
Yes, I know this won't happen, just throwing it out there for the dreamers.
Just ran the numbers on my portfolio. If the Dow goes to 100,000 I'll be rich!
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What do you think of this scenario? What % chance on Selection Sunday? 10%?
If we went 4-1 to finish (9-9) and then beat DePaul, Nova, Providence in the BET and lost in the final to Xavier, we would finish with an RPI of 70 and a SOS of 73. Again, unlikely but not completely unprecedented.
Also, if we had won at home against Creighton or DePaul our projected RPI jumps 6 spots....so that hurts a bit.
The main thing in our favor would be a strong finish. It wouldn't be impossible, and I'd definitely be watching Selection Sunday with interest, but I'd expect us to be left out. The only way I think we get an at-large is if we win out until the BET Final. Even then, I'd be nervous because I'm not sure how heavily the BET games would be factored in if we didn't win the auto-bid.
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The main thing in our favor would be a strong finish. It wouldn't be impossible, and I'd definitely be watching Selection Sunday with interest, but I'd expect us to be left out. The only way I think we get an at-large is if we win out until the BET Final. Even then, I'd be nervous because I'm not sure how heavily the BET games would be factored in if we didn't win the auto-bid.
The committee has said in the past that one of the key factors they look at is record over the last 10 games. Ours would be pretty strong if we were to win out to BET final. But I agree, we'd probably be one of the last four in, or perhaps one of the last byes. Losses are starting to rack up around the country, but the computer numbers for MU still suck.
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Just ran the numbers on my portfolio. If the Dow goes to 100,000 I'll be rich!
Sorry for sharing for those of us who are interested. Ass.
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Just ran the numbers on my portfolio. If the Dow goes to 100,000 I'll be rich!
+100!