MUScoop
MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: CrackedSidewalksSays on December 22, 2014, 01:15:05 AM
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9-9 Big East Mark Likely = 4 Top 50 Wins and NCAA Bid
It looks to me like MU gets an NCAA bid with a 9-9 or better mark. That would likely entail MU being one of only about 33 teams with four wins over teams in the RPI top 50, likely finish in the top 25 in Strength of Schedule, and get credit for being a better team with Luke Fischer than the early season 4-4 without him. The out-of-conference wins away from home against Georgia Tech (top 100) and Tennessee are decent on the resume as well.
RPI Forecast (http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Marquette.html)gives Marquette only a 17% chance of doing that, but that is based on results so far which included eight of 10 games without Luke Fischer.
According to RPI Forecast, Marquette is one of 49 teams projected to have three wins over teams that finish in the Top 50, which would put them right on the bubble of the top 47 or so that get into the tournament. The table below lists the contenders for bids based on how many Top 50 wins they are expected to have, and then how many chances they are expected to have. This ranks MU as 49th because of the teams with 3 Top 50 wins they would have been the one with the most chances (13) so I would put us in last of the 3-team wins. I included teams projected to have at least two wins over top 50 teams and/or to be projected to finish in the RPI Top 70.
If that played out, it would leave Marquette with a 15-15 mark, 7-11 in conference and a 96 RPI – so not enough to get a bid. By my math, Marquette gets in with a 9-9 conference (assuming no slipups in these last two games).
Obviously other games can affect this. Butler, Seton Hall and Georgetown need to stay in the Top 50, and it would be nice if Providence beat Miami to have a shot to finish there. Despite a tough weekend (Seton Hall blown out at Georgia, Xavier being upset by Auburn and Butler losing to Indiana), the Big East is projected to finish 2nd in RPI and have six teams in the top 50 (the projections basically assume one of the six does not end up there and Marquette goes 3-7 against the five that do).<div>
</div><div>Here is the ranking of NCAA teams based on projected wins over Top 50 teams (tie-breaker who had the fewest chances):
1. Kentucky (SEC) 10 wins over top 50 in 12 chances. RPI 1
2. Texas (B12) 10 wins over top 50 in 15 chances. RPI 4
3. Kansas (B12) 9 wins over top 50 in 16 chances. RPI 5
4. Baylor (B12) 9 wins over top 50 in 16 chances. RPI 9
5. Duke (ACC) 8 wins over top 50 in 11 chances. RPI 2
6. Wisconsin (B10) 8 wins over top 50 in 11 chances. RPI 3
7. Louisville (ACC) 8 wins over top 50 in 12 chances. RPI 7
8. Virginia (ACC) 7 wins over top 50 in 10 chances. RPI 6
9. Villanova (BE) 7 wins over top 50 in 11 chances. RPI 14
10. North Carolina (ACC) 7 wins over top 50 in 13 chances. RPI 8
11. West Virginia (B12) 7 wins over top 50 in 14 chances. RPI 16
12. Iowa St. (B12) 7 wins over top 50 in 15 chances. RPI 25
13. Utah (P12) 6 wins over top 50 in 10 chances. RPI 11
14. Butler (BE) 6 wins over top 50 in 12 chances. RPI 28
15. Oklahoma St. (B12) 6 wins over top 50 in 14 chances. RPI 23
16. Oklahoma (B12) 6 wins over top 50 in 15 chances. RPI 18
17. TCU (B12) 6 wins over top 50 in 15 chances. RPI 54
18. Arizona (P12) 5 wins over top 50 in 8 chances. RPI 13
19. Washington (P12) 5 wins over top 50 in 8 chances. RPI 24
20. Xavier (BE) 5 wins over top 50 in 10 chances. RPI 21
21. St. John's (BE) 5 wins over top 50 in 12 chances. RPI 34
22. Indiana (B10) 5 wins over top 50 in 12 chances. RPI 50
23. Georgetown (BE) 5 wins over top 50 in 14 chances. RPI 39
24. Ohio St. (B10) 4 wins over top 50 in 8 chances. RPI 12
25. Notre Dame (ACC) 4 wins over top 50 in 9 chances. RPI 42
26. South Carolina (SEC) 4 wins over top 50 in 10 chances. RPI 31
27. Purdue (B10) 4 wins over top 50 in 10 chances. RPI 73
28. Seton Hall (BE) 4 wins over top 50 in 11 chances. RPI 29
29. Providence (BE) 4 wins over top 50 in 12 chances. RPI 55
30. Creighton (BE) 4 wins over top 50 in 12 chances. RPI 114
31. Iowa (B10) 4 wins over top 50 in 13 chances. RPI 52
32. Texas Tech (B12) 4 wins over top 50 in 14 chances. RPI 84
33. Kansas St. (B12) 4 wins over top 50 in 17 chances. RPI 117
34. Gonzaga (WCC) 3 wins over top 50 in 5 chances. RPI 10
35. Wichita St. (MVC) 3 wins over top 50 in 6 chances. RPI 17
36. San Diego St. (MWC) 3 wins over top 50 in 7 chances. RPI 27
37. Arkansas (SEC) 3 wins over top 50 in 7 chances. RPI 35
38. Wyoming (MWC) 3 wins over top 50 in 7 chances. RPI 68
39. VCU (A10) 3 wins over top 50 in 8 chances. RPI 15
40. LSU (SEC) 3 wins over top 50 in 8 chances. RPI 60
41. Michigan St. (B10) 3 wins over top 50 in 9 chances. RPI 32
42. Miami FL (ACC) 3 wins over top 50 in 9 chances. RPI 37
43. Minnesota (B10) 3 wins over top 50 in 9 chances. RPI 36
44. California (P12) 3 wins over top 50 in 9 chances. RPI 40
45. Maryland (B10) 3 wins over top 50 in 9 chances. RPI 41
46. Georgia (SEC) 3 wins over top 50 in 10 chances. RPI 48
47. Stanford (P12) 3 wins over top 50 in 10 chances. RPI 62
48. North Carolina St. (ACC) 3 wins over top 50 in 11 chances. RPI 43
49. Marquette (BE) 3 wins over top 50 in 13 chances. RPI 96
50. Colorado St. (MWC) 2 wins over top 50 in 4 chances. RPI 26
51. Old Dominion (CUSA) 2 wins over top 50 in 4 chances. RPI 38
52. SMU (Amer) 2 wins over top 50 in 5 chances. RPI 20
53. Northern Iowa (MVC) 2 wins over top 50 in 5 chances. RPI 19
54. Rhode Island (A10) 2 wins over top 50 in 5 chances. RPI 53
55. UTEP (CUSA) 2 wins over top 50 in 5 chances. RPI 66
56. Evansville (MVC) 2 wins over top 50 in 5 chances. RPI 69
57. St. Bonaventure (A10) 2 wins over top 50 in 5 chances. RPI 97
58. Davidson (A10) 2 wins over top 50 in 6 chances. RPI 22
59. Cincinnati (Amer) 2 wins over top 50 in 6 chances. RPI 58
60. George Washington (A10) 2 wins over top 50 in 7 chances. RPI 70
61. Illinois St. (MVC) 2 wins over top 50 in 7 chances. RPI 79
62. Auburn (SEC) 2 wins over top 50 in 7 chances. RPI 167
63. Florida (SEC) 2 wins over top 50 in 8 chances. RPI 30
64. Mississippi (SEC) 2 wins over top 50 in 8 chances. RPI 99
65. Illinois (B10) 2 wins over top 50 in 8 chances. RPI 51
66. Colorado (P12) 2 wins over top 50 in 8 chances. RPI 59
67. Richmond (A10) 2 wins over top 50 in 8 chances. RPI 72
68. Oregon (P12) 2 wins over top 50 in 8 chances. RPI 106
69. Oregon St. (P12) 2 wins over top 50 in 8 chances. RPI 124
70. Georgia Tech (ACC) 2 wins over top 50 in 9 chances. RPI 76
71. Long Beach St. (BW) 2 wins over top 50 in 9 chances. RPI 82
72. Arizona St. (P12) 2 wins over top 50 in 9 chances. RPI 122
73. Syracuse (ACC) 2 wins over top 50 in 10 chances. RPI 64
74. Pittsburgh (ACC) 2 wins over top 50 in 10 chances. RPI 115
75. UCLA (P12) 2 wins over top 50 in 11 chances. RPI 78
76. DePaul (BE) 2 wins over top 50 in 12 chances. RPI 193
77. Green Bay (Horz) 1 wins over top 50 in 3 chances. RPI 46
78. Georgia St. (SB) 1 wins over top 50 in 4 chances. RPI 56
79. Wofford (SC) 1 wins over top 50 in 4 chances. RPI 57
80. Dayton (A10) 1 wins over top 50 in 4 chances. RPI 61
81. Boise St. (MWC) 1 wins over top 50 in 5 chances. RPI 44
82. Texas A&M (SEC) 1 wins over top 50 in 7 chances. RPI 65
83. Connecticut (Amer) 1 wins over top 50 in 7 chances. RPI 67
84. Harvard (Ivy) 0 wins over top 50 in 1 chances. RPI 47
85. Buffalo (MAC) 0 wins over top 50 in 2 chances. RPI 33
86. Eastern Washington (BSky) 0 wins over top 50 in 2 chances. RPI 49
87. Stephen F. Austin (Slnd) 0 wins over top 50 in 3 chances. RPI 63
88. BYU (WCC) 0 wins over top 50 in 4 chances. RPI 45</div>
Source: 9-9 Big East Mark Likely = 4 Top 50 Wins and NCAA Bid (http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2014/12/9-9-big-east-mark-likely-4-top-50-wins.html)
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I hope you are right, but I think it will be difficult for a team with less than 20 wins to get in. Last year only 3 teams got in with less than 20 wins. None of them were at-large bids.
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I hope you are right, but I think it will be difficult for a team with less than 20 wins to get in. Last year only 3 teams got in with less than 20 wins. None of them were at-large bids.
I agree and if that is the projected RPI (96) then I think that doesn't get us in. The committee is smart enough to take into account the Fischer factor, but 17 wins and RPI of 96 is not really even that close to the bubble IMHO. If we can get into the conversation as a bubble team (19-20 wins + a few in the BE tourney) then the Fischer factor might help us leapfrog over teams with better RPIs.
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Gimme some of that Kool Aid
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9-9, 17-13 isn't going to get a bid.
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9-9, 17-13 isn't going to get a bid.
No way, and I think we are going to be pushing it to get to 9-9. Only way we get in with even a 10-8 conference record is if one of those wins is over Villanova.
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I agree and if that is the projected RPI (96) then I think that doesn't get us in. The committee is smart enough to take into account the Fischer factor, but 17 wins and RPI of 96 is not really even that close to the bubble IMHO. If we can get into the conversation as a bubble team (19-20 wins + a few in the BE tourney) then the Fischer factor might help us leapfrog over teams with better RPIs.
If I'm not mistaken I think you're reading it wrong. The RPI of 96 is based upon us going 7-11 in conference for a 15-15 record. Not sure what the RPI would be if we went the 9-9 the author thinks is sufficient.
Personally, I don't think even 9-9 gets us in (17-13, 9-9). I think 11-7 in conference is the minimum (19-11, 11-7).
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No way, and I think we are going to be pushing it to get to 9-9. Only way we get in with even a 10-8 conference record is if one of those wins is over Villanova.
We could probably afford losing to Nova twice if we had a good road win, like over St. John's in MSG or G'Town in DC. But agree 10-8 and also at least one win in the BET.
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9-9 and two conference tournament wins gets us 19-14, which I think would put us in the first four out. Same scenario 10-8 gest us to 20-13 and last four in. I believe we need two conference tournament wins to get in. Definitely need 20 wins under any scenario.
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10-8 and I feel fairly good, depending though on where the w/L's are.
9-9, probably sweating profusely & needing to do work in the BEast tourney
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We need to go minimum 11-7 in conference play with a minimum of one tournament win. 2 might be necessary.
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We need to go minimum 11-7 in conference play with a minimum of one tournament win. 2 might be necessary.
While I'm in agreement, I don't know that we can definitively say that yet.....insert soft or hard bubble reference
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Gimme some of that Kool Aid
+1
I understand people's need to have stats for everything, but they are relatively meaningless at this time of year.
I don't know what would be a better bet. Against the prediction that Kentucky loses two conference games (assuming they beat Louisville on Sat.) or against 9-9 getting us in the Big Dance.
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While I'm in agreement, I don't know that we can definitively say that yet.....insert soft or hard bubble reference
Agreed. If we finished 11-7 and tie for 4th place with 6 of the losses coming to the three teams ahead of us, 11-7 probably wouldn't get us in. But you are right. There are so many factors in play yet, that we can't say anything definitive right now.
That's why I said the stats were meaningless now. Not that they don't have any value at all, but they really aren't going to tell us much until around the middle of the conference schedule when we see how things start to shake out.
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9-9 and two conference tournament wins gets us 19-14, which I think would put us in the first four out. Same scenario 10-8 gest us to 20-13 and last four in. I believe we need two conference tournament wins to get in. Definitely need 20 wins under any scenario.
I was thinking we needed 11-7, but your 10-8 scenario makes sense. Anything less than 11 wins in conference and we need at least two conference tournament wins.
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Could someone show me how we get those 11 wins? I've got the Warriors getting 2 wins vs DePaul, maybe split with Butler and Creighton but beyon that I'm not sure how MU does be the rest of the conference......
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I was thinking we needed 11-7, but your 10-8 scenario makes sense. Anything less than 11 wins in conference and we need at least two conference tournament wins.
11-7 and you're in. Pretty confident in that.
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Could someone show me how we get those 11 wins? I've got the Warriors getting 2 wins vs DePaul, maybe split with Butler and Creighton but beyon that I'm not sure how MU does be the rest of the conference......
Go 8-1 at home. Steal 2 on the road besides the opener vs. Depaul. Easy.
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Go 8-1 at home. Steal 2 on the road besides the opener vs. Depaul. Easy.
Where's that Big Red Button I Push.
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I don't know why I always have to say it.
11-7 and we are in. And it really won't even be that much to sweat.
Idk if we can pull off 11-7. But they are not leaving out an 11-7 conference team from one of the power conferences.
Our RPI would be in the 30s I believe lol. Its a stone cold lock.
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I love these threads in December. Every team out there still has better than 2/3 of their games to play, yet so many think they know exactly what its going to take to get a bid.
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If I'm not mistaken I think you're reading it wrong. The RPI of 96 is based upon us going 7-11 in conference for a 15-15 record. Not sure what the RPI would be if we went the 9-9 the author thinks is sufficient.
Personally, I don't think even 9-9 gets us in (17-13, 9-9). I think 11-7 in conference is the minimum (19-11, 11-7).
Yep you're right, I read it wrong. I agree that 9-9 (17-3) is probably not enough, but wonder what that would be for RPI. I think our ceiling is to get into the ~50 range for RPI and hope the committee recognizes that we are a different team than at the start of the year and leapfrog us over other bubble teams. Whether that means 10 or 11 and maybe 2 in the tourney or it can be done with less I'm not sure. But if we finish 9-9 the committee could legitimately conclude that we were not much better with Fischer than without.
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I love these threads in December. Every team out there still has better than 2/3 of their games to play, yet so many think they know exactly what its going to take to get a bid.
It would seem a lot of posts here say words like "I think" or "probably" or "pretty confident" or "might". Are you saying we have to wait to see how everyone else does if we go 6-12 in conference? 14-4 in conference?
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It would seem a lot of posts here say words like "I think" or "probably" or "pretty confident" or "might". Are you saying we have to wait to see how everyone else does if we go 6-12 in conference? 14-4 in conference?
Show me where somebody talked about going 6-10 or 14-4 and I'll give you an answer. I see 9-9, 10-8 etc. With people already prescribing the number of BET wins that will be needed. Nobody knows how that will come out. That's what I'm saying.
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Show me where somebody talked about going 6-10 or 14-4 and I'll give you an answer. I see 9-9, 10-8 etc. With people already prescribing the number of BET wins that will be needed. Nobody knows how that will come out. That's what I'm saying.
And how people in this thread said we knew "exactly" (your words) how many wins it would take? Or did people say words like "probably" and "might"?
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Show me where somebody talked about going 6-10 or 14-4 and I'll give you an answer. I see 9-9, 10-8 etc. With people already prescribing the number of BET wins that will be needed. Nobody knows how that will come out. That's what I'm saying.
I do. 11 wins is a stone cold lock.
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Running the Wizard...
17-13 (9-9) would give us an RPI of 60 and SOS of 23. I think we would have to win a game in the Big East Tourney if that was the case. I just can't see 17-14 with a .500 conference record being good enough.
18-12 (10-8) would give us an RPI of 48 and SOS of 23. This would have us squarely on the bubble, with 1 Big East Tourney win being needed to lock us in.
19-11 (11-7) would give us an RPI of 36 and SOS of 23. This would make us a lock heading to New York. Even a questionable loss would keep us in the top-50 RPI. Say we dropped our first game in New York to DePaul, we would be 19-12 with an RPI of 46 and SOS of 31. That's plenty good enough to get in.
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If we are 17- 13 based on rpiforecast are expected rpi would be 66.4. If we have an 18-12 record expected rpi is 52.4. If you want to go through individual games go here http://www.rpiforecast.com/wizard/Marquette.html
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Running the Wizard...
17-13 (9-9) would give us an RPI of 60 and SOS of 23. I think we would have to win a game in the Big East Tourney if that was the case. I just can't see 17-14 with a .500 conference record being good enough.
18-12 (10-8) would give us an RPI of 48 and SOS of 23. This would have us squarely on the bubble, with 1 Big East Tourney win being needed to lock us in.
19-11 (11-7) would give us an RPI of 36 and SOS of 23. This would make us a lock heading to New York. Even a questionable loss would keep us in the top-50 RPI. Say we dropped our first game in New York to DePaul, we would be 19-12 with an RPI of 46 and SOS of 31. That's plenty good enough to get in.
I find it hard to accept that each additional win will move us up 12 spots.
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Running the Wizard...
17-13 (9-9) would give us an RPI of 60 and SOS of 23. I think we would have to win a game in the Big East Tourney if that was the case. I just can't see 17-14 with a .500 conference record being good enough.
18-12 (10-8) would give us an RPI of 48 and SOS of 23. This would have us squarely on the bubble, with 1 Big East Tourney win being needed to lock us in.
19-11 (11-7) would give us an RPI of 36 and SOS of 23. This would make us a lock heading to New York. Even a questionable loss would keep us in the top-50 RPI. Say we dropped our first game in New York to DePaul, we would be 19-12 with an RPI of 46 and SOS of 31. That's plenty good enough to get in.
Like I said, 11-7 gets us in, figuring that out is the easiest part. How we get to 11-7 with this roster is very very difficult.
I feel comfortable saying we win these games:
@DePaul
Creighton
Seton Hall
@Creighton
St Johns
DePaul
I feel comfortable saying we lose these games:
@Georgetown
@Xavier
@St Johns
@Villanova
Villanova
@Butler
That's 6-6, we'd have to go 5-1 in the "toss-ups". I just don't see it. Certainly I hope it happens but as thin as this roster is and light on big game experience, I don't think it happens.
I think our ceiling is 10-8 with the floor being 7-11. I'll be ok with that because I respect the process.
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I find it hard to accept that each additional win will move us up 12 spots.
Welcome to the joy of RPI
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Like I said, 11-7 gets us in, figuring that out is the easiest part. How we get to 11-7 with this roster is very very difficult.
I feel comfortable saying we win these games:
@DePaul
Creighton
Seton Hall
@Creighton
St Johns
DePaul
I feel comfortable saying we lose these games:
@Georgetown
@Xavier
@St Johns
@Villanova
Villanova
@Butler
That's 6-6, we'd have to go 5-1 in the "toss-ups". I just don't see it. Certainly I hope it happens but as thin as this roster is and light on big game experience, I don't think it happens.
I think our ceiling is 10-8 with the floor being 7-11. I'll be ok with that because I respect the process.
I wouldn't lump @ Butler and @ Xavier into the "likely loss" column. The rest I would agree, but I think MU can beat GT and SJU on the road (they probably won't win all four of these games, but I think they could conceivably go 2-2). Nova is going to be tough to beat this year.
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Like I said, 11-7 gets us in, figuring that out is the easiest part. How we get to 11-7 with this roster is very very difficult.
I feel comfortable saying we win these games:
@DePaul
Creighton
Seton Hall
@Creighton
St Johns
DePaul
I feel comfortable saying we lose these games:
@Georgetown
@Xavier
@St Johns
@Villanova
Villanova
@Butler
That's 6-6, we'd have to go 5-1 in the "toss-ups". I just don't see it. Certainly I hope it happens but as thin as this roster is and light on big game experience, I don't think it happens.
I think our ceiling is 10-8 with the floor being 7-11. I'll be ok with that because I respect the process.
Really? You see home vs St. Johns as more comfortable then Gtown and X? I think SJU is the toughest to match up with.
Nova is the only team that scares me. At home I am not worried about any of them but NOva. But that still means a 7-1 home record(if Nova is a loss) which is hard to do. THEN have to find 4 road wins.
We'll see.
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Really? You see home vs St. Johns as more comfortable then Gtown and X? I think SJU is the toughest to match up with.
Nova is the only team that scares me. At home I am not worried about any of them but NOva. But that still means a 7-1 home record(if Nova is a loss) which is hard to do. THEN have to find 4 road wins.
We'll see.
8-1. Three road wins.
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Really? You see home vs St. Johns as more comfortable then Gtown and X? I think SJU is the toughest to match up with.
Physically yes, mentally not so much IMHO. I factor in Lavin and the park ball StJ tends to play from time to time.
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8-1. Three road wins.
I'll have what he's having....I just don't see any way that's happening especially with a shallow roster.
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I'll have what he's having....I just don't see any way that's happening especially with a shallow roster.
I agree. I think 7-2 is more likely. But I think this team can find four road wins.
We all can agree that it'll be a fun ride. I am certainly more optimistic than I was a week ago. That said, one key injury and this team is FOOOOKED.
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Again, 11-7 would put our RPI in the low 40s. We'd be in for sure. 10-8 and we probably have work to do in NY. This is obviously assuming we win our next two non con games.
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I agree and if that is the projected RPI (96) then I think that doesn't get us in. The committee is smart enough to take into account the Fischer factor, but 17 wins and RPI of 96 is not really even that close to the bubble IMHO. If we can get into the conversation as a bubble team (19-20 wins + a few in the BE tourney) then the Fischer factor might help us leapfrog over teams with better RPIs.
sorry left out a key line. The 96 RPI is if we go 7-11 in conference as RPI Forecast picks. They have us at an RPI of 64 if we go 9-9 in conference (assuming these last two non-conference games are wins)
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I agree. I think 7-2 is more likely. But I think this team can find four road wins.
We all can agree that it'll be a fun ride. I am certainly more optimistic than I was a week ago. That said, one key injury and this team is FOOOOKED.
Here's the thing though. 7-2 is still incredibly tough even at home. Nova is very unlikely and DePaul is the only one that you can feel real good about. Rest are certainly doable, but only have room for 1 mess up.
Now on the road. I give us a solid chance in every single one except for Nova. But I can't find many outside of possible DePaul where I favor us to win. So getting 3 more again will be very tough.
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sorry left out a key line. The 96 RPI is if we go 7-11 in conference as RPI Forecast picks. They have us at an RPI of 64 if we go 9-9 in conference (assuming these last two non-conference games are wins)
Thanks Bama, my sense is that 64 is still off the bubble, and that we need to be firmly on it for the Fischer factor to matter. But that is completely made up guess! Might be an interesting post to look at how much leeway teams have gotten in the past with returning players changing the team makeup. Though it must be a very rare exception for a player to make as much of an impact as Luke has so far.
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After reading through everyone's insights, I will concede I probably need to back off one win and say it will take 10-8, 18-12, 52 RPI, 23 SOS to get in.
It sounds like pretty much everyone agrees that 11-7 we are in.
RPI Forecast gives us only a 8% chance of 11-7, and 18% chance of 10-8, but obvious Fischer improves those chances.
On a side note, I did ask Ken Pomeroy about MU slipping from 103rd to 108th after drubbing Alabama A&M. Basically his system now does not reward you much for huge margins against bad teams (which actually is a nice improvement over most systems) and the preseason ratings (where Marquette started 87th) is fading out as more games are played, so the bad performances like Nebraska Omaha now hurt more. In addition, Charlotte leadfrogged us by only losing by 3 at Georgetown etc.
http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Marquette.html
Final Record Expected RPI Probability
22-8 23.0 0.01%
21-9 27.3 0.13%
20-10 33.3 0.53%
19-11 42.3 2.26% - Most of Board Agrees we are in
18-12 52.4 5.28% - Some think we are in
17-13 66.4 10.52% - Bama argued we are in, but concedes to back off one win based on collective wisdom of MU board
16-14 80.8 16.62%
15-15 96.4 20.34%
14-16 112.0 19.00%
13-17 128.5 13.52%
12-18 144.8 7.74%
11-19 160.6 2.97%
10-20 176.0 0.91%
9-21 188.0 0.14%
8-22 214.0 0.02%
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Just win them all.
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After reading through everyone's insights, I will concede I probably need to back off one win and say it will take 10-8, 18-12, 52 RPI, 23 SOS to get in.
It sounds like pretty much everyone agrees that 11-7 we are in.
RPI Forecast gives us only a 8% chance of 11-7, and 18% chance of 10-8, but obvious Fischer improves those chances.
On a side note, I did ask Ken Pomeroy about MU slipping from 103rd to 108th after drubbing Alabama A&M. Basically his system now does not reward you much for huge margins against bad teams (which actually is a nice improvement over most systems) and the preseason ratings (where Marquette started 87th) is fading out as more games are played, so the bad performances like Nebraska Omaha now hurt more. In addition, Charlotte leadfrogged us by only losing by 3 at Georgetown etc.
http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Marquette.html
Final Record Expected RPI Probability
22-8 23.0 0.01%
21-9 27.3 0.13%
20-10 33.3 0.53%
19-11 42.3 2.26% - Most of Board Agrees we are in
18-12 52.4 5.28% - Some think we are in
17-13 66.4 10.52% - Bama argued we are in, but concedes to back off one win based on collective wisdom of MU board
16-14 80.8 16.62%
15-15 96.4 20.34%
14-16 112.0 19.00%
13-17 128.5 13.52%
12-18 144.8 7.74%
11-19 160.6 2.97%
10-20 176.0 0.91%
9-21 188.0 0.14%
8-22 214.0 0.02%
That's a thing???? Sounds like unicorn juice to me.
;D
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Hah, a lot of intelligent discussion in this string, and when that happens I have to defer to more and smarter minds! DEMOCRACY RULES
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This article nails it, IMO:
"Eight non-conference wins plus a 10-8 record in conference play would put MU solidly in the mix for an NCAA tournament bid"
http://painttouches.com/2014/12/15/marquette-sees-improvement-in-non-conference-strength-of-schedule/ (http://painttouches.com/2014/12/15/marquette-sees-improvement-in-non-conference-strength-of-schedule/)
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This article nails it, IMO:
"Eight non-conference wins plus a 10-8 record in conference play would put MU solidly in the mix for an NCAA tournament bid"
http://painttouches.com/2014/12/15/marquette-sees-improvement-in-non-conference-strength-of-schedule/ (http://painttouches.com/2014/12/15/marquette-sees-improvement-in-non-conference-strength-of-schedule/)
Well done.
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Go 8-1 at home. Steal 2 on the road besides the opener vs. Depaul. Easy.
Bang! Done, I like it. Keep it simple right. I will predict 2 NCAA wins the first over a 5 seed and the. We beat the 4 seed to make the S16 these victories will come as no surprise to the Warrior faithful. Ring Out Ahoys.... and pass the koolaid..
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Bang! Done, I like it. Keep it simple right. I will predict 2 NCAA wins the first over a 5 seed and the. We beat the 4 seed to make the S16 these victories will come as no surprise to the Warrior faithful. Ring Out Ahoys.... and pass the koolaid..
There is quite a bit of wishful thinking there. The Easy part should have been a give away.
Just win baby.