MUScoop
MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: Dr. Blackheart on November 25, 2014, 02:00:19 PM
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Not gonna repeat same stat story of the previous games on EFG% defense...but will say the 1H was the same old story, but the 2nd was much improved. The guys had periods of very good team defense.
Will report on a few new stats now that we have a bit more of a baseline about this team. Compared to NCAA contribution percent averages by position...
- MU's Center and PF contribute a higher % of team points than average (Steve and Juan basically).
- MU's SF and SG score right at average. The PG, of course, is below average.
- Center and PF are way above average on both offensive and defensive rebounding % contribution.
- SF, SG and PG WAY below norm on offensive rebounding...and SG and PG WAY below norm on defensive rebounding.
The stats show MU is very good at causing turnovers...we know MU is small until Luke gets back...however, the issue of transition defense should not be an issue if we are dropping back guards...but it is as they are focused out front doing the El Matador trying to cause a TO with high pressure....with no bigs behind them as they are doing more than their fair share to control the boards. Carlino, Burton and JJJ in that SF slot need to contribute more on the boards if this defensive scheme is going to be successful. I don't see that focus yet.
Btw on a "Bitersweet Symphony" note....KPom has MU going 1-17 on individual BE games, winning Senior Night vs. DePaul on the last game...5-13 if you look at his cumulative prediction with close games going either way in a flip of a coin. Scoop will be the DePaul board if that comes to pass saving Rocky some server space costs.
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Not gonna repeat same stat story of the previous games on EFG% defense...but will say the 1H was the same old story, but the 2nd was much improved. The guys had periods of very good team defense.
Will report on a few new stats now that we have a bit more of a baseline about this team. Compared to NCAA contribution percent averages by position...
- MU's Center and PF contribute a higher % of team points than average (Steve and Juan basically).
- MU's SF and SG score right at average. The PG, of course, is below average.
- Center and PF are way above average on both offensive and defensive rebounding % contribution.
- SF, SG and PG WAY below norm on offensive rebounding...and SG and PG WAY below norm on defensive rebounding.
The stats show MU is very good at causing turnovers...we know MU is small until Luke gets back...however, the issue of transition defense should not be an issue if we are dropping back guards...but it is as they are focused out front doing the El Matador trying to cause a TO with high pressure....with no bigs behind them as they are doing more than their fair share to control the boards. Carlino, Burton and JJJ in that SF slot need to contribute more on the boards if this defensive scheme is going to be successful. I don't see that focus yet.
Btw on a "Bitersweet Symphony" note....KPom has MU going 1-17 on individual BE games, winning Senior Night vs. DePaul on the last game...5-13 if you look at his cumulative prediction with close games going either way in a flip of a coin. Scoop will be the DePaul board if that comes to pass saving Rocky some server space costs.
I did see that, and what I was able to take solace in (for my own sanity) is the fact that the #s right now used to make those projections don't have Fischer factored in. Maybe he'll make enough of a difference to get us near .500 in conference.
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It's murky right now, but I really do think we are going to turn this around. If we're setting the bar at 1 Big East win, I'd certainly take the over, but I'd also take the over if the bar was set at 5. I think this team can win 7-8 games in league play.
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Btw on a "Bitersweet Symphony" note....KPom has MU going 1-17 on individual BE games, winning Senior Night vs. DePaul on the last game...5-13 if you look at his cumulative prediction with close games going either way in a flip of a coin. Scoop will be the DePaul board if that comes to pass saving Rocky some server space costs.
Dear Lord.
Is that the worst MU season since Dukiet?
I can't figure this out. There is some decent talent on the team, but for whatever reason they just aren't very good right now.
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Wojo ain't going 1-17. He just isn't. He's going to solve this 2014-15 riddle. Just you watch.
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Wojo ain't going 1-17. He just isn't. He's going to solve this 2014-15 riddle. Just you watch.
I completely agree that 1-17 is out of the question (barring injuries). The actual 5-13 projection, as we currently stand, is not out of the question at all. But if Fischer can provide some interior D, rebounding, and post scoring, and we get some of the young guys clicking over winter break, a 9-9 conference record, in my opinion, would be "solving this riddle." I'm guessing that's more along the lines of what you meant too.
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Dear Lord.
Is that the worst MU season since Dukiet?
I can't figure this out. There is some decent talent on the team, but for whatever reason they just aren't very good right now.
I really can't figure it out either, I'm really confused.
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I really can't figure it out either, I'm really confused.
Easy.
Two players who had starter minutes but never contributed to the scoring and rebounding.
Then the rest have little experience to none.
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The rebounding %s confirm something that I had been thinking during the NJIT game. We blame Steve and Juan for getting out rebounded by smaller guys, but the rest of the team has done almost nothing to help on the boards. Juan and Steve are each averaging about 7 boards per game so far. Cohen is averaging 3.0 and JjJ is averaging 2.3. The remaining four (five including Dawson) are averaging 1.5 or less. For an established rebounder like Derrick, and a forward like Burton, that is not ok.
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Easy.
Two players who had starter minutes but never contributed to the scoring and rebounding.
Then the rest have little experience to none.
Yes, but WHY aren't they able to contribute?
Coaching? Lack of talent? Lack of development? Poor gameplan? Just learning curve? etc. etc. etc.
I just can't put my finger on why they aren't better.
With this said, they have only lost 1 game I thought they would win, so if they score an upset, then they are essentially "back to even".
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The rebounding %s confirm something that I had been thinking during the NJIT game. We blame Steve and Juan for getting out rebounded by smaller guys, but the rest of the team has done almost nothing to help on the boards. Juan and Steve are each averaging about 7 boards per game so far. Cohen is averaging 3.0 and JjJ is averaging 2.3. The remaining four (five including Dawson) are averaging 1.5 or less. For an established rebounder like Derrick, and a forward like Burton, that is not ok.
Agree. Yes, Steve and Juan need to be getting double doubles, but the large disparities have been at guard and wing positions. No reason the Derrick and Burton types aren't pulling down 4-5 per game. Granted, the opportunities will go up if opponents' eFG isn't >60%. Also wondering how much of Wojo's preseason "we're going to run" expectation is still baked into the players' habits. Can't run without the ball - get the guards crashing the boards and worry about scoring the ball once you have it.
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The rebounding %s confirm something that I had been thinking during the NJIT game. We blame Steve and Juan for getting out rebounded by smaller guys, but the rest of the team has done almost nothing to help on the boards. Juan and Steve are each averaging about 7 boards per game so far. Cohen is averaging 3.0 and JjJ is averaging 2.3. The remaining four (five including Dawson) are averaging 1.5 or less. For an established rebounder like Derrick, and a forward like Burton, that is not ok.
That was the 1st thing I noticed about the stats last nite. In almost 90 minutes, the threesome of Wilson, Wilson and Carlino had a total of 4 rebounds in the game. Definitely not acceptable and I expect it will get better.
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Agree. Yes, Steve and Juan need to be getting double doubles, but the large disparities have been at guard and wing positions. No reason the Derrick and Burton types aren't pulling down 4-5 per game. Granted, the opportunities will go up if opponents' eFG isn't >60%. Also wondering how much of Wojo's preseason "we're going to run" expectation is still baked into the players' habits. Can't run without the ball - get the guards crashing the boards and worry about scoring the ball once you have it.
Ding. Ding. Ding. - - The whole rebounding "problem" and disparity is largely the result of our eFG being atrocious. You always expect to control the Defensive Board at 80+% - but when the opposition is making basket after basket, there aren't nearly as many misses to be rebounded.
The defense needs to get much better as everyone knows. And, I expect it will. There is no reason that a team with 7, Top 100 guys shouldn't be able to win 7-9 conference games this year, even if relatively inexperienced. If Wojo has good coaching chops - he should be able to coax 7-9 conference wins out of this squad. Think we all knew it was going to be very bumpy in the non-con as there were a lot of unknowns, and likely alot of adjustments for the players to adapt to a new coach - and the coach to learn his personnel from a game perspective (not just what he sees in practice.)
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Ding. Ding. Ding. - - The whole rebounding "problem" and disparity is largely the result of our eFG being atrocious. You always expect to control the Defensive Board at 80+% - but when the opposition is making basket after basket, there aren't nearly as many misses to be rebounded.
The defense needs to get much better as everyone knows. And, I expect it will. There is no reason that a team with 7, Top 100 guys shouldn't be able to win 7-9 conference games this year, even if relatively inexperienced. If Wojo has good coaching chops - he should be able to coax 7-9 conference wins out of this squad. Think we all knew it was going to be very bumpy in the non-con as there were a lot of unknowns, and likely alot of adjustments for the players to adapt to a new coach - and the coach to learn his personnel from a game perspective (not just what he sees in practice.)
No it's not. There were at least 4 times where NJIT got at least 3 extra chances on the offensive glass. One possesion they got 6 chances. Our rebounding is awful. Some of it is effort and technique, some of it is height deficiency.
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Ding. Ding. Ding. - - The whole rebounding "problem" and disparity is largely the result of our eFG being atrocious. You always expect to control the Defensive Board at 80+% - but when the opposition is making basket after basket, there aren't nearly as many misses to be rebounded.
So what's your take on NJIT grabbing 17 offensive rebounds (compared to our 19 defensive rebounds) while using no players taller than 6"7?
Or Omaha grabbing 11 offensive rebounds (compared to our 11 defensive rebounds)?
Or UT-Martin grabbing 12 offensive rebounds (compared to our 17 defensive rebounds)?
You say we should be grabbing +80% of their misses. In these three games we grabbed 56% of them. I don't think eFG% is the main culprit here. Against OSU? Sure. But not for the other 3 games. We have an eFG% problem and a rebounding problem.
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So what's your take on NJIT grabbing 17 offensive rebounds (compared to our 19 defensive rebounds) while using no players taller than 6"7?
Or Omaha grabbing 11 offensive rebounds (compared to our 11 defensive rebounds)?
Or UT-Martin grabbing 12 offensive rebounds (compared to our 17 defensive rebounds)?
You say we should be grabbing +80% of their misses. In these three games we grabbed 56% of them. I don't think eFG% is the main culprit here. Against OSU? Sure. But not for the other 3 games. We have an eFG% problem and a rebounding problem.
Repeated break downs off of dribble penetration - puts guys into help situations, and thus leaving their man and the "clear" choice as to who to block out.
I'm not saying rebounding isn't a problem, but rather that our eFG% we are yielding the opposition also greatly hurts overall rebounding numbers. We still need to do a better job of controlling the defensive board as you point out - 56% isn't cutting it. Yet that problem emanates from our issues preventing dribble penetration.
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So what's your take on NJIT grabbing 17 offensive rebounds (compared to our 19 defensive rebounds) while using no players taller than 6"7?
Or Omaha grabbing 11 offensive rebounds (compared to our 11 defensive rebounds)?
Or UT-Martin grabbing 12 offensive rebounds (compared to our 17 defensive rebounds)?
You say we should be grabbing +80% of their misses. In these three games we grabbed 56% of them. I don't think eFG% is the main culprit here. Against OSU? Sure. But not for the other 3 games. We have an eFG% problem and a rebounding problem.
Agreed. Our defensive rebounding has been very poor in three of four games. And really only Ohio State has the size and rebounding that it should have been the case.
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Repeated break downs off of dribble penetration - puts guys into help situations, and thus leaving their man and the "clear" choice as to who to block out.
I'm not saying rebounding isn't a problem, but rather that our eFG% we are yielding the opposition also greatly hurts overall rebounding numbers. We still need to do a better job of controlling the defensive board as you point out - 56% isn't cutting it. Yet that problem emanates from our issues preventing dribble penetration.
Those are all very fair points. Our inability of guards to stop slashers takes our bigs out of position for the rebound. That makes a lot of sense. So definitely a combined problem.
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Agreed. Our defensive rebounding has been very poor in three of four games. And really only Ohio State has the size and rebounding that it should have been the case.
Defense only ends when the possession ends. The failure to grab the defensive rebound is one of the reasons our defense is so bad. I seen several times where our intial defense was great, but we did not get the rebound and the opponent ending up scoring anyways.
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I listed MU's % vs the NCAA average as it provides a benchmark. I expected Juan and Steve to be over average because of team composition. I didn't expect the smaller spots to be so low.
Put this in context with the Wojo focus on turnovers yet with blow by's galore, one can conclude MU is playing defense with their hands, not with their feet or bodies. That is a major problem. 2H yesterday was very different than 1H in that regard and so was the eFg%--by a very sizeable margin. Let's see it continue.
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I really hate picking on a player, but Deonte can be better than he is playing now. We saw it last season.
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Wojo ain't going 1-17. He just isn't. He's going to solve this 2014-15 riddle. Just you watch.
Yes.
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One thing that seemed to jump out at me at the game yesterday was that Steve doesn't create much space with his body and he doesn't jump so he's always trying to wrestle the ball away from the other similar size and shorter players that are in his rebounding area. Then he doesn't have the strength to win that battle of hands. Juan isn't a big guy to start with and he seems to be really bothered by contact. If the stats say they are getting a lot of rebounds I've got to say that some of that is because they are out there so much. From what I remember Jimmy Butler was a far better rebounder as a Soph than either of these guys are as upper classman. Hopefully Fisher will help because against any high d-1 teams those guys will get killed (as we saw with OSU)
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If the stats say they are getting a lot of rebounds I've got to say that some of that is because they are out there so much. From what I remember Jimmy Butler was a far better rebounder as a Soph than either of these guys are as upper classman.
No, sir.
Jimmy did a good job on the o-glass as a sophomore.. Defensive rebounding was weak for him that year. Juan far better and Steve not even in the same conversation - light years better.
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We have poor fundamentals on rebounding right now. We are ball watching and not, as soon as "shot" is yelled, putting an arm in our man's chest and then boxing him out. Laziness.
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NJIT up AT Michigan with 10 left to play in 2nd half.
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Go NJIT!!!
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NJIT about to win.
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NICE! Softens our close win a bit.
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Unexpected Pomeroy boost. Nice job NJIT.
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G Tech lost to something called South Carolina Upstate...
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G Tech lost to something called South Carolina Upstate...
Weird since I thought the ACC was the greatest conference since the dawn of man. ;)
edit. and #15 U of Miami loses by 15 to Green Bay at home.