ESPN is ranking us at 14 while (barring injuries and/or terrible coaching) I see us in the top 10 for the majority of the season.
Will anyone else be disappointed if we are not in the top 10 for the majority of the season or (more importantly) get lower than a 3 seed?
while i think we can be a top 10 team maintaining a top 10 ranking maybe difficult. we are not playing in the Big ten where you can feast on PSU, ILL, NW, Michigan, Iowa and the like and then play 4-5 games against solid teams. The Big East has big time talent on every squad, even the bottom feeders have Nba potential players and their talent dwarfs the bottom or middle of the pack Big Ten type teams. a good Big ten tem will lose 3-4 games, a good Be team might lose eight. Unfortunately it is hard to maintain a big time ranking with more than 5-6 losses as the pollsters imply see you went 1-1 for the week and some lesser conference team right below you in the rankings went 2-0. look at MU's SOS and Rpi for last year, then go look at who we lost to and compare that to the 10 teams ranked ahead of us. It is not "fair" but somethingI will give up for being on TV every night, Playing in the BE, recruitng opportunities, etc. We just have to win a few of those games like Georgetown.
To be honest, there is NO reason whatsoever, if this team stays healthy that they should get worse then a 3 seed in the NCAA tourney. If they do, it will be a disappointment to me(though a 4 I guess would be acceptable but no lower).
What will keep us out of the top 10 is a buzz saw (ha!) of a conference and a tougher non-con schedule than recent years. NC State (maybe), Tennessee, Dayton, Wiscy. With our schedule, probably 7-8 losses guaranteed, and that is no way to stay in the top 10. I do believe the team will be better, however. Just not good enough to get through the schedule we have with only the 3-4-5 losses necessary to stay top 10.
Quote from: ErickJD08 on July 05, 2008, 01:40:31 PM
ESPN is ranking us at 14 while (barring injuries and/or terrible coaching) I see us in the top 10 for the majority of the season.
Will anyone else be disappointed if we are not in the top 10 for the majority of the season or (more importantly) get lower than a 3 seed?
I'd honestly be surprised if the team was in the top 10 and got a 3 seed.
I just see too many question marks to automatically assume that kind of season will happen. It didn't happen last year, I'm not particularly sure that MU is better off in a few key areas than they were last year.
I think at this point, the perimeter shooting is worse than last year. Cubillan had two shoulder surgeries and who knows how he'll come back from them. None of the three amigos have shown that they are perimeter threats. Acker is too small to play major minutes. I don't think either Butler or Fulce will be a real perimeter threat, they had nice percentages in JUCO but it was on a limited number of attempts, so I don't know that those hold much weight. Hayward is there, but you can't just have him, when he's also the only post offense threat as well. You need a couple perimeter shooters given the post players currently on the team.
I also think that the post play is probably not as good either. Burke is what he is, he's never going to be an offensive threat, but he'll grab a few rebounds and play defense. Mbakwe was a good HS player because of athleticism, no one knows if that is going to be the same after the knee injury. Otule is a project, and it would take a miracle for him to be as productive as Barro was. Hazel is probably not going to see a very different role than what he had last year.
To be a top 10 team, MU is going to need either consistent perimeter threats, or a post presence that is better than what they had last year. Right now, neither of those are there, so I would expect a very similar season to last year.
I'll be content if MU hovers around 15.
And just as long as they are consistently competing.
I want them to sneak up on lots of higher ranked teams in the Tourney and whoop'em!
I will be happy if by the end of the season they are in the Top 20. It is going to be interesting to see how the team plays under Buzz ,how he adjusts during games,if the new players improve and are able to contribute significantly by the end of the season and into the tournament. I would imagine that sitting as Asst Coach for a year, Buzz may have seen some coaching decisions under Crean that he might have done differently and we will have to see what type of game day coach he is going to be. The players seem to like him and based on what we have read, preparation, work ethic and organisation are strong suits of his as well as recruiting , so the difference between some wins and losses will be his game coaching.
If we are, at the end of the season, where they ranked us at the beginning of the season, I think I'm happy. I think we'll see lots of close games - and Buzz's on-the-floor coaching will make the difference at times. I think the team thinks he will cut them loose a little over what TC did - I donb;t know what that means, but I am anxious to see how this unfolds and advances! GO Marquette!!
GU wasn't rated in the Top 10 for most of the year due to the tough competition up and down the BE. I think the BE will be tougher at the top this upcoming season, however--and MU has no 5. Buzz likes to play a longer line-up, and he will take the shackles off, but I think a 4th in the BE, 5 Seed and a Top 20 rating is about right. I think Hazel will be a surprise and Lazar will step outside more.
I do not see us finsihing in the top 20. I think the Big East is even stronger this year and what has our team solved to prevent the blowout losses it had last year at Uconn, Syracuse, Louisville and West Virginia? I expect us to finished 8th or 9th in the league and this is assuming that Buzz can coach.
Quote from: muguru on July 05, 2008, 05:28:38 PM
To be honest, there is NO reason whatsoever, if this team stays healthy that they should get worse then a 3 seed in the NCAA tourney.
With all due respect, this is a very stupid comment.
Look at it this way...how does this team compare to last year's team? We lose Fitz, Ooze, and Trend off last years team, and replace with Fulce, Butler, and Otule.
You think the team should jump to a 3 seed (VERY tough to get...the Final Four team was 3 seed and no other team in recent memory has been close to that seed). I think people are GREATLY minimizing the loss of Ooze. I think all the incoming players can help, but we lost a great amount.
Just curious, where does everybody see ND then? If them and Purdue are "top 10," I think we should be too. We have proven that we are better than ND. And Purdue, is basically a mirror image of us, except we have a point guard, and they have some post presence.
ND is also overrated in the top 10. Purdue was very good with a young team in a down big 10. They are one year older and better and the big 10 is still down. It will be easier for Purdue because they could easily go 16-2/15-3 in the B10. There is no way we go 15-3 in the Beast.
Quote from: MUBasketball on July 05, 2008, 11:15:55 PM
With all due respect, this is a very stupid comment.
Look at it this way...how does this team compare to last year's team? We lose Fitz, Ooze, and Trend off last years team, and replace with Fulce, Butler, and Otule.
You think the team should jump to a 3 seed (VERY tough to get...the Final Four team was 3 seed and no other team in recent memory has been close to that seed). I think people are GREATLY minimizing the loss of Ooze. I think all the incoming players can help, but we lost a great amount.
I agree that we lost a lot in ooze but Fitz was a liability on defense and last year he add anything on the offensive end like he did the previous year. If Mbakwe and Otule can add some defense and Fulce and Butler add a little offense I think we have improved with our senior guards returning.
I think it all comes down to the NCAA seeding. If we fold in Feb/ early march again I will be very disappointed. With veteran team we need to get a 3 seed this year.
Quote from: tower912 on July 05, 2008, 05:57:50 PM
What will keep us out of the top 10 is a buzz saw (ha!) of a conference and a tougher non-con schedule than recent years. NC State (maybe), Tennessee, Dayton, Wiscy. With our schedule, probably 7-8 losses guaranteed, and that is no way to stay in the top 10. I do believe the team will be better, however. Just not good enough to get through the schedule we have with only the 3-4-5 losses necessary to stay top 10.
One persons opinion that MU has the easiest schedule in the Big East.
http://northwesternwins.wordpress.com/
Ooze could be very good or non-existent. Why Fitz at a time was a liability, he could change games with his three. Without him we lose to Seton Hall at home. I think he made a difference in another game, but I do not remember which one. Without looking I suspect that Ooze and Fitz were basically non-existent in the games we got blown out of. I think Burke will be much improved this year. Mbakwe should be much improved also. Otule should at least help as much as Blackledge. So I do not see us droping off much or at all at center, but it is still our weak spot. I just think that overall the top half of the Big east improved more than MU did. Notre Dame will not have improved much, but until they start losing at home they will be a top team. Georgetown might be the team that takes a big fall. They lost a lot, but have the best recruting class coming in. However, were I think they fall because last year they won all the close games and were the benefit of some questionable calls. I figure that evens out this year and they lose the close games. So possibly we finish ahead of Georgetown, but fall behind Villanova, Syracuse and Pittsburg which makes us 8th. If Georgetown stays ahead of us we finished 9th. To finish higher we will have to win the close games against the top half and lose agianst the botton half.If we win enough games to get to NCAA tournament, we will make sweet 16.
Quote from: dennycrane on July 06, 2008, 08:24:50 AM
One persons opinion that MU has the easiest schedule in the Big East.
http://northwesternwins.wordpress.com/
I think this is backwards thinking. MU's tough games are on the road, so that makes our schedule tougher, not easier.
Quote from: bilsu on July 05, 2008, 09:17:28 PM
I do not see us finsihing in the top 20. I think the Big East is even stronger this year and what has our team solved to prevent the blowout losses it had last year at Uconn, Syracuse, Louisville and West Virginia? I expect us to finished 8th or 9th in the league and this is assuming that Buzz can coach.
http://www.truveo.com/Lowered-Expectations/id/1412008026
Quote from: bilsu on July 06, 2008, 08:44:41 AM
I think this is backwards thinking. MU's tough games are on the road, so that makes our schedule tougher, not easier.
Not really. There's a chance you will lose the toughest games anyways, might as well lose them on the road. Really, all you want is to lose 1 or less at home to go 8-1, then go .500 or better on the road for 5-4, 4-5, so you end up with 12-13 wins. Much easier to win all of your home games if they are easier games.
I agree that it's all about the road schedule. The Bradley Center has been good for MU, and it's a rarity to lose there. What's the largest # of losses in a season at the BC in the past 10 years? 4 (2004, 1998)
Most years, we notch only 1-2 losses at the BC. Even when we're mediocre, we defend the home court.
It's all about the road schedule. Honestly, regardless of home opponent, MU starts with a base of 7 BE wins. Tough road schedule = tough schedule.
The key which is unkown this year is whether or not Buzz can coach. If he can we should be top10-14----if he can't, we're out of the top 20------if he's just averaged as a coach we end up top 15-20.
I'm not worried about the offense against a man to man, but offense against a zone (and we will see a lot of zones again) may continue as a problem, and the defense concerns me as Buzz's record there isn't very impressive.
Top ten....no
Top 15...maybe
Top 20...likely
Tough schedule (again), rookie Big East coach (and only 2nd year coach overall), lack of 5 spot are cons
Pros are very experienced team hopefully on a mission for their final year
4th place finish, 4 or 5 seed in NCAA tournament. Sweet 16 (not knowing who the matchups are, just guessing)
I would have thought more people would be on the top 10 side. Personally, I think the schedule helps us because most of the road games are winable games. (I don't think I can count Louisville winable) But more importantly, I think we are better than last year.
I really think Fitz was a liability most of the time. The threes last season were really inconsistent. Cubillan was terrible at the end of last season. I think we was like 1-14 at the end. I know the shoulders are suspect but he could only improve. Barro was a tall guy will alot of heart but 0 presence down low. As long as we can get someone who can make lay-ups or possibly dunk the ball, Barro is easily replaceable on the offensive end.
As for our current players, I think there is room for improvement even for our trio and it will happen. I really think James was bothered by the wrist. Even though he was really inconsistent last season, I think he improved from the season before. Next, this might be asking for too much, but if McNeal can continue were he left off, we are in for a fun ride. And Matthews can definitely improve in alot of areas. Finally, I have expectations for a great season with Hayward. I imagine we will be a bit more atheletic and there is chance we developed a little creativity with his game. But I will settle is his >40% three point shooting and solid post game.
As for others, TM can have a big season next year. There were alot of glimmers of talent with his nose for the ball. Don't know though. I think the JUCO's could work out, even as three point threats, if Buzz can set roles well enough. Burke is a huge question mark. He flat out looked silly on the court at many times.
My major question mark is Buzz. That's why I ended my thought of top 10 with "barring injuries or terrible coaching". As much as I do not like Crean right now, I will admit that the players played hard all the time (except for that Syracuse game last year which I think they lost on purpose to play ND, but I digress) Point is, I really hope Buzz can keep the same spirits and intensity during the games as Crean did.
sorry but when you say that you think they lost the syracuse game on purpose that gives you absolutely zero credibility and should make others question whether you ever played a competitve sport in your lifetime or have any idea whatsoever.
Top 10 is going to be tough, but I don't see why this can't be a top 11-20 team for most of the season.
I'm assuming we'll see at least some small improvement from the majority of returning players, and wouldn't be surprised to see Jerel blossom into a 17-18 ppg guy with the way he closed the season (averaged 20.1 ppg in March, despite just six points against FGCU).
I think some of the losses are being overstated.
Ooze was a nice role player, but as has been said, he completely vanished some nights. Overall, I think Mbakwe can at least match Ooze's production, and hopefully be more consistent about it. Anybody who thinks he's lost much athleticism should go back and check what he did in very limited minutes against St. John's and Georgetown.
Blackledge is no loss. Loved his enthusiasm and athleticism, but I expect Fulce to be an upgrade off the bench.
Fitz may be the toughest loss. Not necessarily because he was terribly productive, because he he had more off nights last year than on nights. But at least he was a shooting threat for which opponents had to account. Not sure we have that this year unless Butler (42 percent last year, but only 45 shots) or Fulce (43.4 percent on 53 attempts) surprises a little in that regard. I've got to believe neither will be as much a defensive liability as Fitz who last year never met an opponent's layup he couldn't turn into a three-point opportunity.
Overall, though, I don't see MU's roster losses as being all that significant and, in most ways, MU gains more than it loses from the incoming guys.
Whether Buzz can coach remains an unknown, obviously. He did well to bring in some experience with Layer and Benford. And given the fact that -- according to many here these days -- Tom Crean was among the worst game coaches in NCAA history, things can only get better. Right?
Quote from: ErickJD08 on July 05, 2008, 01:40:31 PM
ESPN is ranking us at 14 while (barring injuries and/or terrible coaching) I see us in the top 10 for the majority of the season.
Will anyone else be disappointed if we are not in the top 10 for the majority of the season or (more importantly) get lower than a 3 seed?
Top 10? I think that is a tall order without a legit big man.
Quote from: MR.HAYWARD on July 06, 2008, 12:05:27 PM
sorry but when you say that you think they lost the syracuse game on purpose that gives you absolutely zero credibility and should make others question whether you ever played a competitve sport in your lifetime or have any idea whatsoever.
I have played competitve sports my whole life. Its was just a comment on a couple of facts. For the first time that season, I saw our team just give up. I don't think Crean drew up a losing gameplan or told the guys at halftime, "Lets forget about this game." But if you think the coach didn't know the BET layout and didn't know that if they lose, they play ND, a team MU can handle very well, you lost all cred. I just think any decent coach knows how to get his players to push hard at key points of the game. And if you watched that game (which it seems like you didn't), there was 0 push when the game was well within reach. (no clawing for loose balls or fight for rebounds) The team looked indifferent if they won or lost.
Regardless, "throwing the Syracuse game" was not my strongest point (nor my most important point) in the post so most people who read objectively would take it with a grain of salt.
GO MU
This has to be the year.
The losses were not great.
Crean played Mbakwe so he would have experience going into this season.
Adding some older players in this recruiting class that should be able to step in earlier and contribute.
MU could possibly have the deepest and most experienced backcourt in the nation.
The big three know this is their last chance.
Very few teams are flawless. If MU is not a top 10 team for lacking a proven big man which teams without serious flaws do they fall below?
This is the season to get it done.
The big three are great, Lazar will be great and hopefully we can get good production out of Trevor and Burke. It remains to be seen how much Otule,Fulce and Butler will help and while our starting core is awesome I am more worried about matchup issues with teams that play zone or games where we aren't shooting well and are without an inside presence offensively. If our 'big" guys are able to develop or contribute a bit offensively then we may improve on our final regular season record of last year. If not, I expect we will have a similar season and hopefully with a better draw in the tournament , advance further.
Quote from: 79Warrior on July 06, 2008, 01:47:21 PM
Top 10? I think that is a tall order without a legit big man.
How many teams aren't saying one of the below statements:
Top 10? I think that is a tall order without a legit big man.
Top 10? I think that is a tall order without a legit 1
Top 10? I think that is a tall order without a legit 2
Top 10? I think that is a tall order without a legit senior leadership
Top 10? I think that is a tall order without a legit three point threat.
All the teams that get put in the 6-10 spot have some questions. Not saying we are but you should think about it. We know about our problems because we follow our team. We know nd's weaknesses because we follow beast teams and thus everyone here thinks they have no chance to be top 5. Every post i see says ABCDEFGH teams won't be ranked but inorder for those to be out someone has to be in.
Top 10 teams usually have future pros on them. We have none on this team.
Quote from: bilsu on July 06, 2008, 10:08:22 PM
Top 10 teams usually have future pros on them. We have none on this team.
Players at the 1-4 fancy themselves as future pros. They all have legit shots. Very few other teams have players at that talent level who have played together for as long as MU's players. Experience is huge. Talent + experience should win championships.
Quote from: dennycrane on July 06, 2008, 10:41:53 PM
Players at the 1-4 fancy themselves as future pros. They all have legit shots. Very few other teams have players at that talent level who have played together for as long as MU's players. Experience is huge. Talent + experience should win championships.
I hope you guys are right, but I have to agree with Bilsu. This team is good, very experienced but no future NBA players guaranteed (perhaps, but no locks) and a coach that is a total rookie at the big time. Hopefully he shines but personally I'm going to temper expectations a touch and say around 15 to 20th and allow Buzz to have a few failings.
Quote from: ChicosBailBonds on July 06, 2008, 11:11:37 PM
I hope you guys are right, but I have to agree with Bilsu. This team is good, very experienced but no future NBA players guaranteed (perhaps, but no locks) and a coach that is a total rookie at the big time. Hopefully he shines but personally I'm going to temper expectations a touch and say around 15 to 20th and allow Buzz to have a few failings.
Buzz Williams is the wild card. We are looking at this team in a vacum. We need to compare it to other top 20 teams. You will see almost all have shortcommings. None will likely have a more deep, talented or experienced backcourt. A more talented and experienced group of starters 1-4?
I love our team. But lets be honest about how deep they are 1-4. Undersized 1, undersized 2, undersized 3, undersized 4, undersized 5. Thank you, Coach Crean. Fiercely talented Warriors, but undersized at EVERY position. I agree that we tend to see the flaws and not the virtues of each of our players. But all of them have weaknesses in their games. I assume they will all improve somewhat, but so will everyone else. And we will be left with a top 25 team that was one lucky shot from the sweet 16.
So, we are again at the 'IF' of Buzz. 'IF' he can coach, 'IF' his assistants are better at developing bigs, 'IF' the recruits he is bringing in this year can contribute. IF everything is answered in the positive, then we can be a very good, very dangerous team. If more than one is answered in the negative, then we will be exactly where we were last year.
Quote from: bilsu on July 06, 2008, 10:08:22 PM
Top 10 teams usually have future pros on them. We have none on this team.
(cough, cough) Wisconsn (cough, cough)
Quote from: Pakuni on July 07, 2008, 08:47:55 AM
(cough, cough) Wisconsn (cough, cough)
Or the exception is you can be a top 10 team like Memphis or Wisconsin and remain there because the conference you play in is such a sham and thus you rarely have losses. ;)