Ceilings and Forest Fires
Written by: mu_hilltopper
A year ago, I blogged an entry called "A Ticking Clock" .. I'll spare the details, but it was written after being crushed by MSU in the NCAAs. It was about a coach who, in 8 seasons, had brought Marquette to a new level, where the team existed in the rarified air of the top 25. It credited him with a number of wonderful achievements.
Crean brought excitement, attendance, and exposure back to Marquette like nobody's business. What he did not bring, was post-season success, and the clock was ticking. I don't write that sentence today as a monument to sour-grapes. Without D. Wade, one of the greatest NBA players in years, Crean has a grand total of one NCAA victory, and that happened 12 days ago. One. Uno.
13 days ago, I was nervous. Had Crean not won that game versus Kentucky, had we lost, we would have gone 8 of 9 seasons without an NCAA victory, it would have been clear that Crean could not win in March, and had hit his ceiling.
Now, lots of people like that ceiling. Top 25 rankings, top third of the Big East, lots of wins, exposure, and the kids graduate. Some fans are just happy to be in the top 64, just making it to the tournament. I don't subscribe to that math. All of that stuff is very very important, to be sure, but the final exam is winning in March and you've gotta win one every so often. If you're paid like a top 10 coach, you should deliver wins, exposure, AND win a few in March. Otherwise, what's the point?
But Crean won a game, we beat UK two weeks ago. With the same team next year, the expectations would have been higher, yet no Marquette fan would be surprised with a 1st or 2nd round bow-out, because it'd happened so many other times. Last week, I predicted a 12-6 season with 1-1 in the BET, and 1-1 in the NCAAs. We were getting ready to watch the same movie again. That's a pathetic expectation for a team with 3 senior starters and perhaps 3 NBA players on its roster, and I don't think the blame lies with the players.
So am I glad Crean quit? I wouldn't say that. And certainly not the disrespectful way in which Crean pulled the trigger, not notifying Marquette officials nor the team in advance. There's a lot of visceral anger on the internet right now, directed at a guy who's been promoting the program as a family organization, yet coldly divorced us at the drop of a hat.
I look at this like a forest fire started by a bolt from the sky. Marquette needs to act quickly and boldly to put the fire out. Some trees will burn and the forest will be forever changed. But new growth will take root. We'll get a new coach, and the movie will be different. Are we at risk to substantially decline? In the Big East, hell yeah.
In the short-term, Marquette could be very screwed, with future and current players and assistants leaving the team. In the long-term, we have a chance at a guy with a higher coaching ceiling, a better bench coach, someone who can recruit a balanced team so we don't rely on favorable matchups to win big games.
It could be a bumpy ride for the next few years, we'll be in re-building mode, but with the commitment that Marquette has shown, with assets like the Big East and the Al Center, MU has a great platform from which to rise again and achieve higher heights.
http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2008/04/ceilings-and-forest-fires.html
Very well put, nice work 'Topper.
Great read. Tempered anger with objective analysis.
I wish you had said something about Crean wanting to replace Izzo at MSU but says IU is the "pinnacle of college basketball." Whatever, Tom. ::)
Atta boy, Hilltopper!!
The Marquette Warriors are a strong band...we're going to be fine (and I think better off) with out that poser on our sidelines!!
Well said, Topper.
PRN, I hope you're right. HUGE opportunity for MU, particularly with the coaches' conference this weekend.
Thanks, guys. It's been a hell of a 24 hour period.
Excellent post.