Below is a listing of Vegas power rankings for the NCAA Tournament. Rather than list the teams in order of rankings, I've listed the individual games. For those unfamiliar, these rankings are updated twice a week, and are help used to set lines. As always, since gambling is illegal, all of this is just for fun. ;)
During regular season play, home teams will often receive anywhere from a 3 to 5 point kicker to the line. As this is the NCAA tournament, the power rankings are a true reflection of the line set. The wagering community (ie the heavy, very heavy hitters) LOVE the NCAA tournament. Mostly because people who don't normally gamble are throwing money on "name teams", like Duke, Kentucky, North Carolina, no matter what the number is at. Recently, Duke has been outstanding to make money against.
Lines listed are what the game opened at and I've added what it is at now. As you'll see if you look at most books, the lines have moved, in most part reflected upon these power rankings. Games in which the line has moved, and reflects a difference of 1.5 or more in either direction reflect a "good value". I've put those games in bold.
It's important to note that good gamblers (people who hit usually above 55%) throw all emotion out the window when making picks. My guy who provides me with these rankings uses so many different stat variables to make his picks, your head would spin. If this guy and Henry Sugar got together, I'm convinced they'd each own a small island in the Carribean.
Georgia 76
Xavier 83 (Line: Xavier -7.5, now at -8.5)
Portland St. 71
Kansas 93 (Line: Kansas -25, now at -22.5)
Temple 77
Mich St. 82 (Line: Mich St -6.5, holding at -6.5)
Kentucky 79
Marquette 84 (Line: MU -4.5, now at -6. MU got a lot of early money on them apparently)
Baylor 80
Purdue 81 (Line: Purdue -3, now at -2.5)
Kent St 79 (Line: Kent St -2, holding at -2)
UNLV 78
Oral Roberts 75
Pitt 84 (Line: Pitt -10, now at -9)
Cornell 71
Stanford 86 (Line: Stanford -15.5, now at -14.5)
Belmont 70
Duke 88 (Line: Duke -19.5, holding at -19.5)
Kan. St. 81
USC 83 (Line: USC -2.5, holding at -2.5)
Winthrop 75
Wash. St. 83 (Line: Wash. St. -8.5, holding at -8.5)
Texas A&M 81 (Line: Texas A&M -2, holding at -2)
BYU 80
Cal St. Fullerton 74
Wisconsin 85 (Line: Wisconsin -11.5, now at -11)
Arizona 81
West Va. 82 (Line: WVU -2, holding at -2)
George Mason 76
Notre Dame 82 (Line: ND -6.5, holding at -6.5)
Miss. Valley St. 60 (lowest in the field, not including play in game participants)
UCLA 91 (Line: UCLA -32, holding at -32)
American U 68
Tennessee 88 (Line: Tennessee -20, holding at -20)
Davidson 83 (Line: Davidson -2, holding at -2)
Gonzaga 81
West. Kent. 76
Drake 81 (Line: Drake -5, now at -4)
St. Mary's 78
Miami FL 77 (Miami -1.5, now at Miaim -1)
South Ala. 75
Butler 78 (Line: Butler -4, holding at -4)
MDBC 69
G-Town 86 (Line: GT -17.5, now at -16.5)
San Diego 73
UConn 83 (Line: UConn -11.5, now at -11)
Austin Peay 70
Texas 85 (Line: Texas -16.5, now at -15.5)
St. Joe's 79
Oklahoma 78 (Line: Oklahoma -1.5, holding at -1.5)
Siena 73
Vanderbilt 80 (Line: Vandy -7.5, now at -7)
Oregon 80
Miss. St. 80 (Line: Miss St. -3, now at -2.5)
Arkansas 81
Indiana 80 (Line: IU -1.5, holding at -1.5)
Boise St. 75
Louisville 86 (Line: 'Ville -13.5, now at -13)
Villanova 79
Clemson 85 (Line: Clemson -6, holding at -6)
UT-Arlington 67
Memphis 92 (Line: Memphis -25, now at -24.5. Memphis has the highest ranking in the field)
North Carolina is 91, Coppin St and Mt. St. Mary's aren't on his board at all, so I apologize for not having those.
Barring injuries or anything unforseen, you can use these rankings as a guide for Round 2 this weekend. The next update of the rankings won't be until next Monday. For example, if Pitt and Mich St meet up in Round 2, Pitt will be around a two point favorite (Pitt is 84, Mich St 82).
If anyone is really interested in this, my guy is a speaker on a Vegas power gamblers conference call this Wednesday night at 10:00 pm. I don't have the details of it yet, but it should be worth the time if you're into this kind of thing. Send me a PM and I can get the details if anyone's interested in listening in.
So other than being a home team nothing else moves the opening line? I.e. rivalry games, matchups, etc.?
No and no, both to a degree.
With the opening line, the only subjectiveness that comes into play is the 3-5 points the home team will get added. This number usually is pretty consistent though from team to team. For example, Duke will always get 5 points, where a team like DePaul will get 3 points.
If it's a rivalry game with a name team, Vegas will set a line edged higher on the name team. Afterall, Vegas's goal is to get as close to 50% on both sides. They'll set the line higher as a tax. Most often you'll see this in the NFL. Name teams (Cowboys) and juggernauts (Pats) will always have this tax. The Pats tax was ridiculous (and rightfully so) this past season.
Matchups aren't taken into account, per se, but the amount of statistical analysis that goes into the rankings, in an indirect way, accounts for the matchups. The kind of stuff Henry Sugar brings to the table.