34th
21-11, 11-9
Non-conf losses at Michigan and the two games at Atlantis but rounded up to 10-2
Swept by UConn, sweeps of Xavier, Butler, DePaul, Seton Hall, Georgetown in BE play, rounded down to 11-9.
Projected offensive rating 48. Projected defensive rating 20.
After last year, I'd sign for that. Might be enough to avoid the grossly exaggerated PIG games.
While we're likely not sweeping those 5 teams, in this scenario we go 1-9 against UConn, St. John's, Creighton, Villanova and Providence.
No chance.
I think MU is more than capable of a slightly better record of 23-9 but this seems pretty realistic.
Losses to Michigan and Virginia are likely but wins over TAMU, Mizzou, Mississipi State, and Wisconsin are attainable.
I'd expect weirdness in Big East play where we achieve an unlikely sweep of someone like Creighton but drop a bad game to Seton Hall. 12-8 or 13-7 are the benchmark.
Pomeroy is out, no need to even play the games...
Quote from: Vander Blue Man Group on Today at 09:12:57 AMWhile we're likely not sweeping those 5 teams, in this scenario we go 1-9 against UConn, St. John's, Creighton, Villanova and Providence.
No chance.
Quote from: PointWarrior on Today at 09:59:09 AMPomeroy is out, no need to even play the games...
Why not?
Quote from: SchnitzelBoy on Today at 09:31:57 AMI think MU is more than capable of a slightly better record of 23-9 but this seems pretty realistic.
Losses to Michigan and Virginia are likely but wins over TAMU, Mizzou, Mississipi State, and Wisconsin are attainable.
I'd expect weirdness in Big East play where we achieve an unlikely sweep of someone like Creighton but drop a bad game to Seton Hall. 12-8 or 13-7 are the benchmark.
I teeter-tottered from 12-8 and 13-7 before posting on the prediction thread but settled on 13-7. I cannot explain why, other than holiday games in the Caribbean often result in upsets, but I think we have a decent chance to surprise UVA.
Quote from: Eye on Today at 05:20:23 AMNon-conf losses at Michigan and the two games at Atlantis but rounded up to 10-2
I admit that I don't get this. Pomeroy is predicting 3 NC losses but rounding up to only 2? Why?
Quote from: MU82 on Today at 11:09:48 AMI admit that I don't get this. Pomeroy is predicting 3 NC losses but rounding up to only 2? Why?
He's using cumulative probabilities. Those can produce different results than game by game. #math
Quote from: Jay Bee on Today at 11:48:11 AMHe's using cumulative probabilities. Those can produce different results than game by game. #math
Thanks.
I wish he'd round up to declare us champs!
Quote from: Scoop Snoop on Today at 10:55:33 AMI teeter-tottered from 12-8 and 13-7 before posting on the prediction thread but settled on 13-7. I cannot explain why, other than holiday games in the Caribbean often result in upsets, but I think we have a decent chance to surprise UVA.
Cautiously optimistic about every non-con game we play except Michigan. UVA is returning some of their best players and brought in a good portal haul. I still think MU can hang, especially at a neutral-site ballroom in the Caribbean...
Do we know Ken's assumptions re: CP5?
I had us 21-11 (12-8), so in line with KP and BT, but I don't know all their assumptions. It appears Bart has Colin playing substantial minutes, with Alex, Ian shutting out MPII's playing time, all of which I take exception to.
Quote from: Jay Bee on Today at 01:23:14 PMAlex, Ian shutting out MPII's playing time, all of which I take exception to.
And for good reason. That's just silly.
Quote from: Jay Bee on Today at 01:23:14 PMIt appears Bart has Colin playing substantial minutes, with Alex, Ian shutting out MPII's playing time, all of which I take exception to.
T Rank (aka Bart Torvik) is all formula based. Plug in past results, apply average progression, and spit out an answer.
Experience is likely what elevates Colin above Nolan. Freshman projections factor in recruiting rankings, so MPII's pedestrian first year if expected to be worse than the average top 80 recruit, which is what Alex's projection is based on.
There's very little to no nuance for context, like Colin playing less because he's the 2nd PG and Nolan playing more since he is a wing. Or MPII having enrolled early and having (hopefully) above average progression. Or Alex possibly achieving above/below his historical projection.
It's a fun thing to look at, but if you understand how the sausage is made, you can identify some of T Rank's quirks.