While I'm sure all of you listened to the latest Scrambled Eggs episode (https://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2026/02/the-one-where-boys-talk-about-evolving.html) presented by Cracked Sidewalks, there may be some who did not understand Joe McCann's reference to Dr. Strange. Today, along with a clip from the movie Infinity War, I answer the question of What If...Dr. Strange's 14,000,605 scenarios ended with one that would result in a Marquette Big East Tournament Championship and NCAA Tournament bid.
1 in 14,000,605 (https://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2026/02/1-in-14000605.html)
(https://i.pinimg.com/originals/13/57/c7/1357c7fc264a5d49ca08ad718587f243.gif)
Quote from: brewcity77 on February 16, 2026, 08:32:01 PMWhile I'm sure all of you listened to the latest Scrambled Eggs episode (https://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2026/02/the-one-where-boys-talk-about-evolving.html) presented by Cracked Sidewalks, there may be some who did not understand Joe McCann's reference to Dr. Strange. Today, along with a clip from the movie Infinity War, we look at the one future in 14,000,605 that would result in a Marquette Big East Tournament Championship and NCAA Tournament bid.
1 in 14,000,605 (https://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2026/02/1-in-14000605.html)
(https://i.pinimg.com/originals/13/57/c7/1357c7fc264a5d49ca08ad718587f243.gif)
Well, it is not zero. So there is that.
"You break the rules and become a hero. I do it and I become the enemy. That doesn't seem fair." - Scarlet Witch (to Dr. Strange).
So, you say there's a chance!
Ah, so that's why Shaka is a top 0.00001% coach!
Odds should be in our favor as a "top 45ish" team
Torvik has Marquette with a 15% @UCONN. Can someone open a Polymarket on that - we could turn $1 million of NIL into $1.15 pretty quickly.
Quote from: PointWarrior on February 17, 2026, 07:50:36 AMOdds should be in our favor as a "top 45ish" team
This is in jest, but if we play like we did the last couple weeks it's on point. Xavier's hot first half sunk us, but in general we're playing better than anyone other than UConn and St John's the past couple weeks.
Quote from: brewcity77 on February 17, 2026, 11:59:20 AMThis is in jest, but if we play like we did the last couple weeks it's on point. Xavier's hot first half sunk us, but in general we're playing better than anyone other than UConn and St John's the past couple weeks.
I've mentioned this before, what happens if you remove the crazy hot Creighton win from that calculation? I think we all know that was a bit of an aberration. Or even just remove the blowout of Butler who was missing starters?
Those two games likely skew our recent play more than they should.
Losing by 3 at Nova when we were double digit underdogs skews it just as much. It's okay to acknowledge we're playing better. Still not the level we've come to expect, but much better than November-January (at least early January).
Quote from: brewcity77 on February 17, 2026, 12:26:31 PMLosing by 3 at Nova when we were double digit underdogs skews it just as much. It's okay to acknowledge we're playing better. Still not the level we've come to expect, but much better than November-January (at least early January).
I'm not saying we're not playing better, I just suspect it's not top 3 in the big east good, and curious about where the reasonable numbers land. Including the "good" game @ Nova is reasonable. Admitting Creighton and Butler were outliers doesn't seem like a big leap either.
Hell, I'd even throw out the latest X game since they were unconscious from 3 in the first half (though we also defended poorly).
Quote from: brewcity77 on February 17, 2026, 11:59:20 AMThis is in jest, but if we play like we did the last couple weeks it's on point. Xavier's hot first half sunk us, but in general we're playing better than anyone other than UConn and St John's the past couple weeks.
I think Nova would take exception to that comment.
Quote from: rocky_warrior on February 17, 2026, 12:32:52 PMI'm not saying we're not playing better, I just suspect it's not top 3 in the big east good, and curious about where the reasonable numbers land. Including the "good" game @ Nova is reasonable. Admitting Creighton and Butler were outliers doesn't seem like a big leap either.
Hell, I'd even throw out the latest X game since they were unconscious from 3 in the first half (though we also defended poorly).
We can be both, admit we are playing at a top 3 level lately while also recognize that some games lately are outliers compared to the rest of the season previous.
Then again, maybe the remaining games follow the same path and change those from outliers to the new norm! Crossing my fingers on that part.
At some point, every game becomes an outlier and Doug Gottlieb is finally justified.
I think it's safe to say we're playing like a top-half team right now and are in a better place than most of us expected a month ago. Who knows where it goes from there or if there's any real long term value to that improvement.
Well, I agree MU is playing better, I disagree with "top half", but so be it.
I tried to run my simulation with Torvik's teamcast cast, dropping every game before 1/7, all future games, and vs CU, But and @ X. He then put us as 65th team out of the tournament instead of 108th. Yay!
Quote from: rocky_warrior on February 17, 2026, 12:48:57 PMWell, I agree MU is playing better, I disagree with "top half", but so be it.
I tried to run my simulation with Torvik's teamcast cast, dropping every game before 1/7, all future games, and vs CU, But and @ X. He then put us as 65th team out of the tournament instead of 108th. Yay!
I guess what's an "outlier?" You're taking 30% of the sample size away and writing them up as "outliers," while leaving in the largest margin (at SJU). Sure SJU would be expected to win comfortably, but by 24? Guessing the spread was half that at most.
Quote from: wadesworld on February 17, 2026, 12:58:06 PMI guess what's an "outlier?" You're taking 30% of the sample size away and writing them up as "outliers," while leaving in the largest margin (at SJU). Sure SJU would be expected to win comfortably, but by 24? Guessing the spread was half that at most.
I agree! I just think taking the last month, or 10, or whatever outliers and concluding the MU is currently 3rd in the BE is equally flawed!
Quote from: rocky_warrior on February 17, 2026, 01:01:44 PMI agree! I just think taking the last month, or 10, or whatever outliers and concluding the MU is currently 3rd in the BE is equally flawed!
Yeah I'd probably say Nova at 3rd, but then at 4 there's just not a lot of quality there.
So what's a number.
Hello reality!
We haven't won on the road all year.
We got wiped off the court in the first half by, get this, Xavier, negating an absolutely fearless comeback in the second half.
We lost to DePaul, God help us (because we need it).
Now we have folks thinking we can somehow go into MSG and win like five straight against teams that have by and large destroyed us?
That must be some really good weed you are smoking, if you believe Marquette can win the tournament.
Assuming the odds are 1 in 14 million, that's still grossly overstating the probability we can win the tournament.
Holding on a fleeting sliver of hope.
Unless we all start praying immediately, even getting to Friday would seem to be an outlandish thought as a reasonable possibility.
Quote from: Jay Bee on February 17, 2026, 05:02:04 PMUnless we all start praying immediately, even getting to Friday would seem to be an outlandish thought as a reasonable possibility.
GE03 is praying for this.
Quote from: dgies9156 on February 17, 2026, 04:52:34 PMHello reality!
We haven't won on the road all year.
We got wiped off the court in the first half by, get this, Xavier, negating an absolutely fearless comeback in the second half.
We lost to DePaul, God help us (because we need it).
Now we have folks thinking we can somehow go into MSG and win like five straight against teams that have by and large destroyed us?
That must be some really good weed you are smoking, if you believe Marquette can win the tournament.
Assuming the odds are 1 in 14 million, that's still grossly overstating the probability we can win the tournament.
(https://media1.tenor.com/m/QIvah8HkvzgAAAAC/the-point-over-your-head.gif)
Good effing Christ, lighten up Francis.
Quote from: Jay Bee on February 17, 2026, 05:02:04 PMUnless we all start praying immediately, even getting to Friday would seem to be an outlandish thought as a reasonable possibility.
I think God has a lot more serious issues with which to concern Herself than dealing with a totally improbable development.
Even if God was a Jesuit, this might be beyond God's skillset.
Quote from: dgies9156 on February 17, 2026, 04:52:34 PMHello reality!
We haven't won on the road all year.
We got wiped off the court in the first half by, get this, Xavier, negating an absolutely fearless comeback in the second half.
We lost to DePaul, God help us (because we need it).
Now we have folks thinking we can somehow go into MSG and win like five straight against teams that have by and large destroyed us?
That must be some really good weed you are smoking, if you believe Marquette can win the tournament.
Assuming the odds are 1 in 14 million, that's still grossly overstating the probability we can win the tournament.
I understand the kids here, where the wacky is still illegal, are on edibles these days. That's good because the concentration can be higher, which is what is needed to give the idea we could win the Big East tourney (which would require
a series of road upsets), any serious thought.
Quote from: dgies9156 on February 17, 2026, 09:56:54 PMI think God has a lot more serious issues with which to concern Herself than dealing with a totally improbable development.
Even if God was a Jesuit, this might be beyond God's skillset.
Stop taking the Lord's name in vain... https://youtu.be/lpE2J11aLxo?si=LcuFXdrkSu_1DuF3