I am not usually a proponent of 2nd guessing lineups. We have smaller samples and a worse understanding of what is going on outside of the games. But when I came across some data that showed MU has a lineup that grades out as the 2nd best in the Big East, I had to dig a little deeper.
LINK HERE (https://painttouches.com/2025/12/17/what-is-marquettes-best-lineup-and-why-dont-we-see-it-more/?utm_source=MU%20Scoop&utm_medium=Forum)
Semi related, boy does MU get out to some poor starts.
(https://painttouches.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-19.png)
That line up makes sense to me.
I think this backs up that starting Caedin is malpractice. Everyone thought this was the lineup a couple of games into the season (especially after the Indiana game with Nigel's vs Jones' plus minus).
Zaide vs Stevens is interesting. Would think if either lineup got some real run together this would even out. Zaide may be checking out a little lately due to the inconsistency in lineups and playing time.
Shaka needs to play the best players more consistently. Why the hell not? Is there some "life lesson" he is teaching that is above the job of winning games?
Thanks for the article.
Seems like an obvious lineup. Pretty frustrating and confusing why they've hardly played together.
Read the JS article today previewing the conference season and Georgetown game. Shaka states no group of guys stand out to him.
I wonder what he doesn't see that every single fan sees. It's strange.
Quote from: CountryRoads on November 09, 2025, 02:16:02 PMNigel, Chase, Lowery, Parham, Gold. That's our best lineup imo, and we'll see it more often going forward.
Posted this after the Indiana game. Was even immediately obvious to a schmuck like me. Just was surprised the guy in charge let our season get away without riding this lineup a bit more.
Quote from: Shooter McGavin on December 17, 2025, 12:07:07 PMRead the JS article today previewing the conference season and Georgetown game. Shaka states no group of guys stand out to him.
I wonder what he doesn't see that every single fan sees. It's strange.
It's bizarre. A number of us have been calling for this lineup all year. I don't understand.
Quote from: Jay Bee on December 17, 2025, 12:17:11 PMIt's bizarre. A number of us have been calling for this lineup all year. I don't understand.
You'll get more Caedin Hamilton hook
Shots and you're going to love it.
A few weeks ago, I was saying we needed to see this lineup. But Lowery has struggled so mightily since Thanksgiving that I'm less sure it's our best.
Still, I'd be all for giving it more of a chance - or at least a version of it with Stevens sometimes. What do we have to lose, except more games?
Quote from: MU82 on December 17, 2025, 01:08:50 PMA few weeks ago, I was saying we needed to see this lineup. But Lowery has struggled so mightily since Thanksgiving that I'm less sure it's our best.
Still, I'd be all for giving it more of a chance - or at least a version of it with Stevens sometimes. What do we have to lose, except more games?
Yes, since a few games in I've put an *next to Zaide for (or Stevens). But, the bigger thing for me is Royce in early and often (e.g., starting). Sometimes I get the 'doesn't matter who starts', but the staff's lineup choices, including starting lineup, have been bizarre this year.
Quote from: panda on December 17, 2025, 12:18:00 PMYou'll get more Caedin Hamilton hook
Shots and you're going to love it.
He's going to break out tonight for 3 points and 4 rebounds, just you wait
For the life of me, I can't understand Caedin continuing to get more than 5 minutes per game. It's just not happening with him.
He missed two point-blank layups last week.
Quote from: Vander Blue Man Group on December 17, 2025, 01:32:38 PMFor the life of me, I can't understand Caedin continuing to get more than 5 minutes per game. It's just not happening with him.
He missed two point-blank layups last week.
Somebody trying to justify their financial investment?
Quote from: WhiteTrash on December 17, 2025, 01:44:11 PMSomebody trying to justify their financial investment?
Sunk cost. It's not Shaka's money.
He took 10,000 hooks shots over the summer... has he taken more than 3 total through 11 games?
I don't want to pick on the kid. I've accepted this is going to be an awful season. But unlike someone like Owens, I don't see the upside in continuing to give him 15-20 minutes a game.
Solid work from paint touches, as always.
That lineup, at its best, was the best basketball we've seen this season from the Golden Eagles.
I mentioned it from game #3ish and said right after the game that it would be Shaka's chosen lineup, but I included a Zaide/Stephens split with the other 4.
Zaide played pretty poorly against Oklahoma and the following game he had a brutal start to the second half against Valpo and looked to exchange some unpleasantries with Shaka after a quick hook a few minutes in, and he hasn't been the same since.
So that leads me to two other points
A) I've been a Caedin critic since before the season, I never saw "it" with him but tried to tone back the criticism because of what Shaka has said- Caedin worked the hardest in practice for 6 weeks to earn his starting spot. It's clear that, from what Coach says, the effort is there but the ability is just what it is, and that what it is is a 6-10mpg BE player, at best.
So, then you say "well who the hell cares about practice if the kid can't play?!"
The games matter more, so why does he continue to play so much when he seems clearly overmatched?
That part is not so simple.
My educated guess is that Shaka saying that Caedin is the hardest worker in practice and has earned his minutes likely means that there are some guys on this years team that might not be putting in the effort that he desires.
So, in that case, maybe Coach feels like he has to prove a point to his own guys and continue to play the kid that is working his tail off and "earning" the minutes?
Whatever it is, Shaka has his reasons for giving Caedin all that run, and I suspect his effort and energy behind the scenes is the biggest part of that.
B) The data that ranks this lineup so high is mostly if not fully from that valpo game and before, because Zaides minutes diminished greatly after 1H of that game.
So, that to me means more extensive cupcake data than high major data.
Not doubting that it's the teams best lineup, just noting that caveat. Given what we've seen so far, I would be floored if Marquette can come up with a top 3 lineup during BE play, even if that bad got back together again for a lot more minutes.
All that aside, let give them more run again and see if the numbers hold
Quote from: Vander Blue Man Group on December 17, 2025, 01:53:39 PMSunk cost. It's not Shaka's money.
He took 10,000 hooks shots over the summer... has he taken more than 3 total through 11 games?
I don't want to pick on the kid. I've accepted this is going to be an awful season. But unlike someone like Owens, I don't see the upside in continuing to give him 15-20 minutes a game.
Hamilton has definitely worked hard to transform his body. Unfortunately, I haven't seen any noticeable improvement in his athletic ability. I don't understand the amount of minutes he is getting.
Quote from: DoctorV on December 17, 2025, 02:00:26 PMB) The data that ranks this lineup so high is mostly if not fully from that valpo game and before, because Zaides minutes diminished greatly after 1H of that game.
So, that to me means more extensive cupcake data than high major data.
Not doubting that it's the teams best lineup, just noting that caveat. Given what we've seen so far, I would be floored if Marquette can come up with a top 3 lineup during BE play, even if that bad got back together again for a lot more minutes.
All that aside, let give them more run again and see if the numbers hold
As the article mentioned, the group has played 58 possessions in non-cupcake games and is +13 overall.
Not a huge sample size, nor particularly great results (a +22.4 NET/100 possessions), but still better than the overall results.
Quote from: Vander Blue Man Group on December 17, 2025, 01:53:39 PMSunk cost. It's not Shaka's money.
He took 10,000 hooks shots over the summer... has he taken more than 3 total through 11 games?
I don't want to pick on the kid. I've accepted this is going to be an awful season. But unlike someone like Owens, I don't see the upside in continuing to give him 15-20 minutes a game.
I can't disagree.
Quote from: RJax55 on December 17, 2025, 02:04:57 PMHamilton has definitely worked hard to transform his body. Unfortunately, I haven't seen any noticeable improvement in his athletic ability. I don't understand the amount of minutes he is getting.
NHL scouts talk a lot about "hockey sense," i.e. a player's feel for the game, ability to anticipate plays, react to the flow of the game and make smart, instinctual decisions in on the ice. Gretzky had it in spades, which is what largely made him the GOAT.
If there's a basketball equivalent, Caedin doesn't have it.
Quote from: Pakuni on December 17, 2025, 02:37:50 PMNHL scouts talk a lot about "hockey sense," i.e. a player's feel for the game, ability to anticipate plays, react to the flow of the game and make smart, instinctual decisions in on the ice. Gretzky had it in spades, which is what largely made him the GOAT.
If there's a basketball equivalent, Caedin doesn't have it.
Agreed. A number of the lay-ups he's missed have been balls that should have been dunked. But he doesn't seem to have the quickness or hops do so, even after all the gym work.
Quote from: Pakuni on December 17, 2025, 02:37:50 PMNHL scouts talk a lot about "hockey sense," i.e. a player's feel for the game, ability to anticipate plays, react to the flow of the game and make smart, instinctual decisions in on the ice. Gretzky had it in spades, which is what largely made him the GOAT.
If there's a basketball equivalent, Caedin doesn't have it.
Wrong. He led his youth hockey team in scoring!
Quote from: MU82 on December 17, 2025, 04:27:15 PMWrong. He led his youth hockey team in scoring!
Yet another reason for MU to go D1 hockey.
We fall behind in the first 10 min. partly because the hardest worker in practice is out there then.
hmmmmmmmm
Quote from: Pakuni on December 17, 2025, 02:37:50 PMNHL scouts talk a lot about "hockey sense," i.e. a player's feel for the game, ability to anticipate plays, react to the flow of the game and make smart, instinctual decisions in on the ice. Gretzky had it in spades, which is what largely made him the GOAT.
If there's a basketball equivalent, Caedin doesn't have it.
In the soccer world, we have a legendary player called Johan Cruyff. He once said, "What is speed? The sports press often confuses speed with insight. See, if I start running slightly earlier than someone else, I seem faster."
He also said, " Playing football is very simple, but playing simple football is the hardest thing there is."
Need to get back to basics and play simple, efficient, free, positive, effort filled basketball.
So I gave chatGPT the game logs from last night. Here's the breakdown through the game
1st half rotations
20:00–17:49 (02:11) +/- +3 — Caedin Hamilton; Royce Parham; Adrien Stevens; Nigel James Jr.; Chase Ross
17:49–15:14 (02:35) +/- -2 — Royce Parham; Adrien Stevens; Nigel James Jr.; Chase Ross; Ben Gold
15:14–13:36 (01:38) +/- +2 — Chase Ross; Ben Gold; Tre Norman; Caedin Hamilton; Sean Jones
13:36–13:19 (00:17) +/- +2 — Ben Gold; Tre Norman; Caedin Hamilton; Sean Jones; Damarius Owens
13:19–11:51 (01:28) +/- +1 — Tre Norman; Caedin Hamilton; Sean Jones; Damarius Owens; Nigel James Jr.
11:51–08:46 (03:05) +/- +2 — Sean Jones; Damarius Owens; Nigel James Jr.; Chase Ross; Royce Parham
08:46–06:34 (02:12) +/- +0 — Chase Ross; Royce Parham; Adrien Stevens; Ben Gold; Michael Phillips II
06:34–06:33 (00:01) +/- +0 — Royce Parham; Adrien Stevens; Ben Gold; Michael Phillips II; Sean Jones
06:33–06:16 (00:17) +/- +0 — Adrien Stevens; Ben Gold; Michael Phillips II; Sean Jones; Caedin Hamilton
06:16–05:28 (00:48) +/- +1 — Adrien Stevens; Ben Gold; Sean Jones; Caedin Hamilton; Damarius Owens
05:28–05:20 (00:08) +/- +0 — Ben Gold; Sean Jones; Caedin Hamilton; Damarius Owens; Tre Norman
05:20–04:42 (00:38) +/- -2 — Ben Gold; Sean Jones; Damarius Owens; Tre Norman; Royce Parham
04:42–04:00 (00:42) +/- -3 — Ben Gold; Sean Jones; Damarius Owens; Tre Norman; Chase Ross
04:00–02:25 (01:35) +/- -5 — Sean Jones; Damarius Owens; Chase Ross; Nigel James Jr.; Caedin Hamilton
02:25–00:00 (02:25) +/- -3 — Damarius Owens; Chase Ross; Nigel James Jr.; Caedin Hamilton; Adrien Stevens
2nd half rotations
20:00–19:21 (00:39) +/- +1 — Chase Ross; Nigel James Jr.; Caedin Hamilton; Adrien Stevens; Royce Parham
19:21–16:30 (02:51) +/- -4 — Chase Ross; Nigel James Jr.; Adrien Stevens; Royce Parham; Ben Gold
16:30–16:30 (00:00) +/- -1 — Chase Ross; Nigel James Jr.; Royce Parham; Ben Gold; Damarius Owens
16:30–16:15 (00:15) +/- +0 — Nigel James Jr.; Royce Parham; Ben Gold; Damarius Owens; Sean Jones
16:15–15:20 (00:55) +/- +3 — Nigel James Jr.; Ben Gold; Damarius Owens; Sean Jones; Caedin Hamilton
15:20–11:31 (03:49) +/- -1 — Ben Gold; Damarius Owens; Sean Jones; Caedin Hamilton; Chase Ross
11:31–11:03 (00:28) +/- -2 — Ben Gold; Sean Jones; Caedin Hamilton; Chase Ross; Nigel James Jr.
11:03–09:26 (01:37) +/- +0 — Ben Gold; Sean Jones; Nigel James Jr.; Royce Parham; Damarius Owens
09:26–04:26 (05:00) +/- -4 — Ben Gold; Nigel James Jr.; Royce Parham; Damarius Owens; Chase Ross
04:26–01:55 (02:31) +/- +2 — Ben Gold; Nigel James Jr.; Royce Parham; Damarius Owens; Sean Jones
01:55–00:00 (01:55) +/- +1 — Nigel James Jr.; Royce Parham; Damarius Owens; Sean Jones; Chase Ross
and here's the breakdown by lineup:
Total 05:26 +/- -6 (2 stints) — Royce Parham; Adrien Stevens; Nigel James Jr.; Chase Ross; Ben Gold
1H 17:49–15:14 (02:35) -2
2H 19:21–16:30 (02:51) -4
Total 05:00 +/- +3 (2 stints) — Royce Parham; Nigel James Jr.; Chase Ross; Sean Jones; Damarius Owens
1H 11:51–08:46 (03:05) +2
2H 01:55–00:00 (01:55) +1
Total 05:00 +/- -5 (2 stints) — Royce Parham; Nigel James Jr.; Chase Ross; Ben Gold; Damarius Owens
2H 16:30–16:30 (00:00) -1
2H 09:26–04:26 (05:00) -4
Total 04:23 +/- +2 (3 stints) — Royce Parham; Nigel James Jr.; Ben Gold; Sean Jones; Damarius Owens
2H 16:30–16:15 (00:15) +0
2H 11:03–09:26 (01:37) +0
2H 04:26–01:55 (02:31) +2
Total 03:49 +/- -1 (1 stint) — Caedin Hamilton; Chase Ross; Ben Gold; Sean Jones; Damarius Owens
Total 02:50 +/- +4 (2 stints) — Caedin Hamilton; Royce Parham; Adrien Stevens; Nigel James Jr.; Chase Ross
1H 20:00–17:49 (02:11) +3
2H 20:00–19:21 (00:39) +1
Total 02:25 +/- -3 (1 stint) — Caedin Hamilton; Adrien Stevens; Nigel James Jr.; Chase Ross; Damarius Owens
Total 02:12 +/- +0 (1 stint) — Royce Parham; Adrien Stevens; Chase Ross; Ben Gold; Michael Phillips II
Total 01:38 +/- +2 (1 stint) — Caedin Hamilton; Chase Ross; Ben Gold; Tre Norman; Sean Jones
Total 01:35 +/- -5 (1 stint) — Caedin Hamilton; Nigel James Jr.; Chase Ross; Sean Jones; Damarius Owens
Total 01:28 +/- +1 (1 stint) — Caedin Hamilton; Nigel James Jr.; Tre Norman; Sean Jones; Damarius Owens
Total 00:55 +/- +3 (1 stint) — Caedin Hamilton; Nigel James Jr.; Ben Gold; Sean Jones; Damarius Owens
Total 00:48 +/- +1 (1 stint) — Caedin Hamilton; Adrien Stevens; Ben Gold; Sean Jones; Damarius Owens
Total 00:42 +/- -3 (1 stint) — Chase Ross; Ben Gold; Tre Norman; Sean Jones; Damarius Owens
Total 00:38 +/- -2 (1 stint) — Royce Parham; Ben Gold; Tre Norman; Sean Jones; Damarius Owens
Total 00:28 +/- -2 (1 stint) — Caedin Hamilton; Nigel James Jr.; Chase Ross; Ben Gold; Sean Jones
Total 00:25 +/- +2 (2 stints) — Caedin Hamilton; Ben Gold; Tre Norman; Sean Jones; Damarius Owens
1H 13:36–13:19 (00:17) +2
1H 05:28–05:20 (00:08) +0
Total 00:17 +/- +0 (1 stint) — Caedin Hamilton; Adrien Stevens; Ben Gold; Sean Jones; Michael Phillips II
Total 00:01 +/- +0 (1 stint) — Royce Parham; Adrien Stevens; Ben Gold; Sean Jones; Michael Phillips II
So Shaka subbed 26 different times with 19 (really 18) distinct lineups. I know +/- is an iffy stat, but the two line-ups we like a lot did get a lot of PT - but also were pretty bad:
Total 05:26 +/- -6 (2 stints) — Royce Parham; Adrien Stevens; Nigel James Jr.; Chase Ross; Ben Gold
1H 17:49–15:14 (02:35) -2
2H 19:21–16:30 (02:51) -4
Total 05:00 +/- -5 (2 stints) — Royce Parham; Nigel James Jr.; Chase Ross; Ben Gold; Damarius Owens
2H 16:30–16:30 (00:00) -1
2H 09:26–04:26 (05:00) -4
That said, either Caedin or Tre was in from 6:33 to the end of the 1st half when we went from up 24-18 to down 37-33.
We suck, so it's hard to know how many conclusions to draw, but I think there are two things
1) Caedin and Tre shouldn't play
2) 19 (18) different roster permutations seems pretty high at this point of the season - How in the world can guys get "connected"/in the flow when you change up that often? How do guys get to know/trust where others are on the floor, etc. IDK if there's a conventional wisdom on this - but chat GPT seems to suggest 6-10 permutations might be reasonable at this point in the season
It seems like we really should tighten it to those 8.
And Ben - FFS - you can't go 0 fer - 31.6% now on the season from our senior leader - many of those misses wide open looks from the corner. WOOOF.
Quote from: Vander Blue Man Group on December 17, 2025, 01:32:38 PMFor the life of me, I can't understand Caedin continuing to get more than 5 minutes per game. It's just not happening with him.
He missed two point-blank layups last week.
Why the 5 minutes? Give those to Clark.
Oh boy ...
https://x.com/CrackedSidewlks/status/2002073407412973732?s=20
Well, when MU gets 5 guts out there who ate all playing help defense and making their layups ups, we will find out if he was right.
After all, Zaide is.o e of the.guys in the best lineup, and, interpreting Shaka coachspeak, he was benched for a poor attitude.
So, the conundrum for a coach, similar to the one he is having with Caedin. If a guy is the hardest worker in practice, how much do you reward him in the game? If a player is, according to analytics, part of your best 5, but does not have a great attitude in practice, what do you do?
Allen Iverson: We're talking about practice.
Some guys like efficient, productive players. Some guys prefer a sparkle in a player's eye over performance.
WTF
I also see two broader "issues" with this data and discussion...
--a regular theme has been for guys to be a "star in their role." Do players on this year's team know their role? With so much lineup rotation, I fear that they are always auditioning for a role. I get that there was more clarity in past seasons, but I do feel that that's a valuable part of the team's culture. I think a core lineup could go a long way towards some of that clarity.
--much of what's being said about Shaka's approach, even stubbornness--from rewarding Caedin to penalizing Zaide, from purpose and aggressiveness being more valuable than analytics--does have me concerned that he may be behaving like final year-Buzz. (Like many, I believe that Buzz sabotaged that season; yes, on purpose, knowing that he'd be leaving.) Or, he is indeed so stubborn that he'll not change course re RGV, and we're in for a bad ending.
Quote from: 1SE on December 18, 2025, 02:59:42 AMSo I gave chatGPT the game logs from last night. Here's the breakdown through the game
I don't disagree with the overall point, but how positive are you that these numbers are accurate? If you hit the rerun button and get different results, you'll have your answer.
I've personally found ChatGPT and other AI language models to be very inconsistent with calculations (especially long ones), so you may want to take the results with a grain of salt.
Quote from: tower912 on December 19, 2025, 12:18:08 PMWell, when MU gets 5 guts out there who ate all playing help defense and making their layups ups, we will find out if he was right.
After all, Zaide is.o e of the.guys in the best lineup, and, interpreting Shaka coachspeak, he was benched for a poor attitude.
So, the conundrum for a coach, similar to the one he is having with Caedin. If a guy is the hardest worker in practice, how much do you reward him in the game? If a player is, according to analytics, part of your best 5, but does not have a great attitude in practice, what do you do?
Allen Iverson: We're talking about practice.
He's not their friend he's the boss. It's a problem when that gets in the way of winning basketball games
Quote from: K1 Lover on December 19, 2025, 09:29:22 PMI don't disagree with the overall point, but how positive are you that these numbers are accurate? If you hit the rerun button and get different results, you'll have your answer.
I've personally found ChatGPT and other AI language models to be very inconsistent with calculations (especially long ones), so you may want to take the results with a grain of salt.
I spot checked - look right - i used 5.2 thinking and it seems to do a pretty good job.
Quote from: PaintTouches on December 17, 2025, 11:47:40 AMI am not usually a proponent of 2nd guessing lineups. We have smaller samples and a worse understanding of what is going on outside of the games. But when I came across some data that showed MU has a lineup that grades out as the 2nd best in the Big East, I had to dig a little deeper.
LINK HERE (https://painttouches.com/2025/12/17/what-is-marquettes-best-lineup-and-why-dont-we-see-it-more/?utm_source=MU%20Scoop&utm_medium=Forum)
Semi related, boy does MU get out to some poor starts.
(https://painttouches.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-19.png)
Awesome post.
When they announced Royce was starting against Georgetown I jumped and Cheered thinking Marquette was going to Win. But then they announced Caedin was starting instead of Gold and I Sank thinking Marquette was going to lose.
Quote from: panda on December 17, 2025, 12:18:00 PMYou'll get more Caedin Hamilton hook
Shots and you're going to love it.
Love it lol
You'll eat your pudding and like it Another Brick In The Wall By Pink Floyd
Or
You'll get nothing and like it Caddy Shack
Or
None Of the above haha
Quote from: K1 Lover on December 19, 2025, 09:29:22 PMI don't disagree with the overall point, but how positive are you that these numbers are accurate? If you hit the rerun button and get different results, you'll have your answer.
I've personally found ChatGPT and other AI language models to be very inconsistent with calculations (especially long ones), so you may want to take the results with a grain of salt.
Just for the F of it I have asked AI models to solve some engineering design problems. They post the correct equations but 95% of the time the answer is wrong.