Marquette Battles Georgetown on National TVWritten by: NY WarriorThe schedule makers couldn't have done a better job of pitting Marquette against Georgetown this Saturday afternoon at the Bradley Center. The Hoyas, just a half game out of first place in the Big East, have won three in a row. Marquette, winners of five straight, are surging and looking to secure favorable seeding in both the Big East tournament and the NCAA tournament. This game is huge for Marquette, and Georgetown needs the win to stay in the running for the Big East championship.
Tipoff is scheduled for 1pm CST. The game will be broadcast on CBS. Here's hoping Clark Kellogg comments on Marquette's "spurtability" early and often during the broadcast. To win this game, MU must force turnovers and dictate a quicker pace to create (hopefully) easier opportunities against the stingy Hoya defense.
Saturday is also National Marquette Day (http://www.mu.edu/alumni/events/nmd08.shtml). If you are unable to watch the game live, then get out there with alums in your city and watch it in a group setting. We Are Marquette!
Media Updates - tons of links!
CBS Sportsline video preview (http://www.sportsline.com/video/player/play/collegebasketball/bxrr4rdJLP3trrsDK38xtYFpWdzJsoxA)
Rivals.com with an outstanding preview (http://collegebasketball.rivals.com/content.asp?cid=780161)
Washington Times on the Hoyas' quest for the top seed in the BET (http://washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080229/SPORTS/41172588/1005/SPORTS)
Hoya Hoops with a numbers preview (http://hoyahoops.com/2008/02/29/marquette-preview/)
Scout.com preview (http://marquette.scout.com/2/733058.html)
Marquette.com preview and game notes (http://gomarquette.cstv.com/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/022808aaa.html)
Hoya Saxa with a preview (http://www.hoyasaxa.com/sports/bball.htm)
College Hoops Net with a great preview (http://www.collegehoopsnet.com/new/story/game_week_11_georgetown_21_marquette41907)
Seth Davis picks us to win (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/seth_davis/02/29/fiveforfriday/index.html?eref=T1)
ESPN's Weekend Watch Highlights Dominic James (http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/notebook?page=notebook/weekendwatch02029)
Rosiak's blog has a great preview with lots of strategy comments by Crean (http://blogs.jsonline.com/muhoops/archive/2008/02/29/previewing-georgetown.aspx)
Stats Breakdown
Here are the Top Five Numbers to Know about Georgetown. As always, information comes from Pomeroy's Scouting Report (http://kenpom.com/sr.php?team=Georgetown&y=2008) and Game Plan (http://kenpom.com/expsked.php?team=Georgetown&y=2008).
- #7 - Rating for the Hoyas effective Field Goal (eFG%) offense
- Georgetown is number seven amongst Division 1 programs for their effective Field Goal Percentage
- This is due to hitting a high percentage (#5) overall of two-point field goals - almost 56%
- #1 - top rating for effective Field Goal Defense
- That's right. Georgetown is the number one team in the country at effective Field Goal defense - limiting opponents to 41.7%
- Inside the arc, opponents get 40.1% field goal percentage, which is #3 in the country
- Georgetown is also good at defending on the three point line (29.8%), which is #10 in the country
- 320 - The national rank for Georgetown's pace
- The Hoyas only average 62 possessions / game, which is one of the slowest paces in the country
- Georgetown is a classic example of the value for tempo free (possession-based) stats
- 13.7% - Block rate for Georgetown
- This is good enough to be Top 10% in the country (#27 overall), or a block about once every seven shots
- 20.2% - Turnover Rating that Georgetown averages on offense
- TO Rate plays a large role in both Offensive and Defensive Efficiency for Georgetown
- Signs of hope! Marquette wins the turnover battle consistently (http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2008/02/turnovers-and-marquette.html)! and does a lot better when our opponents are worse than average (20%)
- Georgetown only forces a 19.2% Turnover Rate for Defense, so expect Marquette to protect the ball fairly well
Basically, Georgetown is exceptional at two things... making and preventing two-point baskets. Even more troubling, there are a lot of the similarities between the areas of expertise for UConn (http://kenpom.com/sr.php?team=Connecticut&y=2008), Louisville (http://kenpom.com/sr.php?team=Louisville&y=2008), and Georgetown (http://kenpom.com/sr.php?team=Georgetown&y=2008). All three teams do well at effective Field Goal defense, two-point field goal defense, and blocking shots. This is a real concern for Marquette, and we expect that everyone should just prepare themselves to watch our half-court offense look very ugly.
However, there are some definite opportunities. Marquette has been outstanding at forcing turnovers lately, and our ball-pressure could really challenge Georgetown's guards. If we're able to rattle the Hoyas into more turnovers than they want and make this into a transition game, then the Bradley Center crowd will start rocking.
Bonus Stats Coverage
In addition, Georgetown has had some rough patches lately that suggest potential weakness. Certainly, the fact that they were beaten soundly by Louisville, and needed a controversial call in order to defeat Villanova, indicates to the casual observer that Georgetown may not be playing particularly well.
(http://bp1.blogger.com/_Xpuy4viivhI/R8hiXra13oI/AAAAAAAAAOc/YEOZ7zc8ZnM/s200/Georgetown+-+2.29.08+v2.png)
(http://bp1.blogger.com/_Xpuy4viivhI/R8hiXra13oI/AAAAAAAAAOc/YEOZ7zc8ZnM/s1600-h/Georgetown+-+2.29.08+v2.png)It is certainly true that Georgetown has not been playing as well recently as they represent for the entire season. Don't get too confident, however. The Hoyas appear to be getting back on track both offensively and defensively with trends that are headed in the desired directions (at least for Georgetown).
(http://bp3.blogger.com/_Xpuy4viivhI/R8gnjLa13kI/AAAAAAAAAN8/Bcqo2NHb7-0/s320/Georgetown+-+2.29.08.png)
(http://bp3.blogger.com/_Xpuy4viivhI/R8gnjLa13kI/AAAAAAAAAN8/Bcqo2NHb7-0/s1600-h/Georgetown+-+2.29.08.png)The good news is that Marquette has been playing great basketball (http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2008/02/villanova-numbers-recap.html) as of late.
(http://bp1.blogger.com/_Xpuy4viivhI/R8hiQra13nI/AAAAAAAAAOU/FUKSY8q7b48/s200/efficiency+vs+season+-+2.29.08.png)
(http://bp1.blogger.com/_Xpuy4viivhI/R8hiQra13nI/AAAAAAAAAOU/FUKSY8q7b48/s1600-h/efficiency+vs+season+-+2.29.08.png)Marquette is streaking, and unlike the Hoyas, we are playing better right now that we have been for the entire season. Note that Marquette's efficiency for the year is completely comparable to Georgetown's. In front of a rabid home crowd and a national audience, it could be a very enjoyable Saturday afternoon.
(http://bp0.blogger.com/_Xpuy4viivhI/R8hb0ba13lI/AAAAAAAAAOE/HdtHX45EChw/s1600-h/MUOandD+2.26.08.png)
*post is a joint contribution from NYWarrior and Henry Sugar
http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2008/02/marquette-battles-georgetown-on.html