Losing to St. John's cost Marquette more than just a Big East Tournament title opportunity, it also impacted their seeding. As the eve of Selection Sunday gets started, we break down where Marquette stands and what the bubble looks like.
Marquette Falls (https://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2025/03/cracketology-marquette-falls.html)
Probably not the worst thing Selection Sunday is tomorrow and not in 2 weeks. We've been falling a seed line a week. Saved by the bell in a sense.
Wonder what our seed looks like if we replace the avoidable road game against Dayton with a #200 NET home buy game instead.
So I feel like one of the BE teams will be a 7. I guess not UNCONN so us or Creighton. Maybe they have to win today.
Quote from: CountryRoads on March 15, 2025, 07:41:54 AMProbably not the worst thing Selection Sunday is tomorrow and not in 2 weeks. We've been falling a seed line a week. Saved by the bell in a sense.
Wonder what our seed looks like if we replace the avoidable road game against Dayton with a #200 NET home buy game instead.
Probably makes no difference. No one game has that much impact unless it's a really big win or, to a lesser extent, a really bad loss.
Please don't take this the wrong way, brew, but I hope like heck you got this wrong!
The one strange thing about Marquettes predicted seed by all the bracketologists is that a month ago, on 2/15, Marquette was one of the top 2 5 seeds, closely missing out on a top 4 seed.
Since then, 4-4 with losses @Nova, UConn, and StJ 2x.
Definitely a bad stretch that deserves a drop in seed, but all the way to the 8 line??
I get that it's all fluid, and a lot of others have climbed the ladder, but bracketology can often be skewed more towards "what have you done for me lately" than the actual seeds. Additionally, and please no offense to you Brew because you do phenomenal work, there is a big "herd mentality" imo, where as a few brackets start dropping a team then the others quickly do as well and it snowballs...
Logic just tells me id be surprised if Marquette drops all the way to the 8 line, very surprised. Obviously it can happen, but it would suck.
It's also odd that one StJ win coulda meant 6 line and now most think 8.
A few years ago I was one of the few that argued that the BE double titles would give Marquette a 2 and I nailed that, hopefully I'm right about this one too.
Either way, all they can do is take what they are given and show up and ball, but I really hopefully that's not an 8 seed
Quote from: DoctorV on March 15, 2025, 02:39:44 PMThe one strange thing about Marquettes predicted seed by all the bracketologists is that a month ago, on 2/15, Marquette was one of the top 2 5 seeds, closely missing out on a top 4 seed.
Since then, 4-4 with losses @Nova, UConn, and StJ 2x.
Definitely a bad stretch that deserves a drop in seed, but all the way to the 8 line??
I get that it's all fluid, and a lot of others have climbed the ladder, but bracketology can often be skewed more towards "what have you done for me lately" than the actual seeds. Additionally, and please no offense to you Brew because you do phenomenal work, there is a big "herd mentality" imo, where as a few brackets start dropping a team then the others quickly do as well and it snowballs...
Logic just tells me id be surprised if Marquette drops all the way to the 8 line, very surprised. Obviously it can happen, but it would suck.
It's also odd that one StJ win coulda meant 6 line and now most think 8.
A few years ago I was one of the few that argued that the BE double titles would give Marquette a 2 and I nailed that, hopefully I'm right about this one too.
Either way, all they can do is take what they are given and show up and ball, but I really hopefully that's not an 8 seed
I think the problem is that the Big East wasn't very good, so not only did we not perform all that well, our schedule wasn't great either.
Interesting comments from Gavitt between the big ten games. Said the first 9 seed lines are complete. In other words, these games don't matter. Our game last night probably didn't either. Also said that Q1 and Q2 games are looked at combined? Have never ever heard that before. FYI, UNC is 8-0 in Q2. So, I guess a reminder that the committee can shift goal posts however they want.
Quote from: CountryRoads on March 15, 2025, 02:59:40 PMInteresting comments from Gavitt between the big ten games. Said the first 9 seed lines are complete. In other words, these games don't matter. Our game last night probably didn't either. Also said that Q1 and Q2 games are looked at combined? Have never ever heard that before. FYI, UNC is 8-0 in Q2. So, I guess a reminder that the committee can shift goal posts however they want.
That's not "shifting goalposts," that's just using the data they have available. There is no requirement that they emphasize certain datapoints over others.
And this right here is why I almost guarantee we are an 8. Gives a MASSIVE advantage to Gonzaga over us for that last 7. Resume and results are less important than predictives to the committee.
https://x.com/Austin_king52/status/1900996679274508524?t=QN_-NtKUrVO5eH8BCE1asg&s=19
Quote from: GoldenEagles03 on March 15, 2025, 03:03:43 PMAnd this right here is why I almost guarantee we are an 8. Gives a MASSIVE advantage to Gonzaga over us for that last 7. Resume and results are less important than predictives to the committee.
https://x.com/Austin_king52/status/1900996679274508524?t=QN_-NtKUrVO5eH8BCE1asg&s=19
Marquette's predictive metrics are very good though.
Quote from: GoldenEagles03 on March 15, 2025, 03:03:43 PMAnd this right here is why I almost guarantee we are an 8. Gives a MASSIVE advantage to Gonzaga over us for that last 7. Resume and results are less important than predictives to the committee.
https://x.com/Austin_king52/status/1900996679274508524?t=QN_-NtKUrVO5eH8BCE1asg&s=19
You can play this game both ways though
Marquettes predictive metrics average is 26,3
Michigan is 28,3
Ole Miss is 28,7
Oregon is 35
All the above are predicted 5 seeds
Quote from: The Sultan on March 15, 2025, 03:10:14 PMMarquette's predictive metrics are very good though.
They are, but Gonzagas are that of a 3 seed, and that's our competition it would seem, for the last 7.
Gonzaga
Predictive Metrics
BPI: 10
POM: 9
T-Rank: 11
Marquette
Predictive Metrics
BPI: 20
POM: 28
T-Rank: 31
Copied right off the team sheets
Quote from: GoldenEagles03 on March 15, 2025, 03:14:29 PMThey are, but Gonzagas are that of a 3 seed, and that's our competition it would seem, for the last 7.
Gonzaga
Predictive Metrics
BPI: 10
POM: 9
T-Rank: 11
Marquette
Predictive Metrics
BPI: 20
POM: 28
T-Rank: 31
Copied right off the team sheets
Right, but my point is that it could mean we finish ahead of someone else.
Quote from: The Sultan on March 15, 2025, 03:15:53 PMRight, but my point is that it could mean we finish ahead of someone else.
I guess. All indications from the bracketologists show that we are an 8. I'd love to see different, but most importantly I'd like a good matchup in the 1st round. That's really all that matters now.
If our choices are between a 2 seed Bama or 1 seed Auburn does it really matter? We need to win the 1st game 1st and show up in round 2 with our best either way.
Quote from: DoctorV on March 15, 2025, 02:39:44 PMThe one strange thing about Marquettes predicted seed by all the bracketologists is that a month ago, on 2/15, Marquette was one of the top 2 5 seeds, closely missing out on a top 4 seed.
Since then, 4-4 with losses @Nova, UConn, and StJ 2x.
Definitely a bad stretch that deserves a drop in seed, but all the way to the 8 line??
I get that it's all fluid, and a lot of others have climbed the ladder, but bracketology can often be skewed more towards "what have you done for me lately" than the actual seeds. Additionally, and please no offense to you Brew because you do phenomenal work, there is a big "herd mentality" imo, where as a few brackets start dropping a team then the others quickly do as well and it snowballs...
Logic just tells me id be surprised if Marquette drops all the way to the 8 line, very surprised. Obviously it can happen, but it would suck.
It's also odd that one StJ win coulda meant 6 line and now most think 8.
A few years ago I was one of the few that argued that the BE double titles would give Marquette a 2 and I nailed that, hopefully I'm right about this one too.
Either way, all they can do is take what they are given and show up and ball, but I really hopefully that's not an 8 seed
This is why I use the process I do. Every time I bracket, I start with blank spreadsheets so all the data is reconsidered anew. I'm not just moving teams up and down, I'm starting over and re-evaluating based on all the latest metrics and full season results.
Personally speaking, I want us to get a 7. I'd even rather a 6. And anticipating these questions today, I ran this by a number of bracketology friends to get their consensus. Everyone I talked to agreed with the 8. We all have different processes, different priorities, but no one disagreed with the 8.
There are about 12 teams with 6-seed profiles. 2 of those will be 5s, 4 will be 6s, 4 will be 7s, and 2 will be 8s. Our resume is among the worst of those which is why it landed where it did. I'd love a better seed, but I'm not going to be a false hope merchant. As it stands, in this field, we deserve an 8. That's just the reality of it. Hope I'm wrong.
Quote from: GoldenEagles03 on March 15, 2025, 03:18:38 PMI guess. All indications from the bracketologists show that we are an 8. I'd love to see different, but most importantly I'd like a good matchup in the 1st round. That's really all that matters now.
If our choices are between a 2 seed Bama or 1 seed Auburn does it really matter? We need to win the 1st game 1st and show up in round 2 with our best either way.
When it comes to Auburn v Bama it does matter.
Marquette would have a much better chance against Bama imo, and Brews opinion as he wrote in his article.
For the record I don't love Alabama as the potential 2 if MU gets a 7, simply because that team seems to fall out of bed scoring 85 and I just don't see Marquette having the offensive firepower to keep up this season.
All the data brew shared makes me more hopeful, so I'd be ok with it, but it's hard for me to envision this years team winning a 90-85 marathon in the dance...
I like Marquette to win the first two games by getting back to their elite defense and turning a team over a bunch, holding the opponent below 70 or in the low 70s in each of the first two games.
That would only take an average offensive night from the outside to move on- in other words don't go completely broke.
I think that scenario is much more plausible.
So, in that sense, I'd take Mich St or Tennessee (outside the top 15 offensively but top 5 defensively) in a slugfest and hope Marquette drills some shots over a game where they have to score 85+ to win.
As for the 1 seeds, they would all suck but give me Duke- just a gut feeling and their lack of experience, possible Flagg not being fully healthy- and Florida- they would crush us on the glass, but their offensive stars are 6'3, 6'2, 6'4 and I feel like Marquettes defensive guard length would give them some trouble.
So to summarize, I'd take Duke, Florida, Tennessee, Mich St as my preferred potential 1/2 seed opponents.
Of course that's assuming Marquette can win their first one, which won't be a walk in the park either
I appreciate all your work, and the work of others Brew in forecasting our seed line. Appealing to reality is spot on, but it is also not welcome to those who insist that we deserve better. Ironic that seems to be the take of a guy who said we deserved to lose.
Thanks Brew.
At least it's good to know that 6-8 are all so close it can go either way
Quote from: CountryRoads on March 15, 2025, 02:59:40 PMInteresting comments from Gavitt between the big ten games. Said the first 9 seed lines are complete. In other words, these games don't matter. Our game last night probably didn't either. Also said that Q1 and Q2 games are looked at combined? Have never ever heard that before. FYI, UNC is 8-0 in Q2. So, I guess a reminder that the committee can shift goal posts however they want.
These games still matter for the protected seeds. They vote 1-9, but will go back and scrub the seeds, which is direct comparing and voting teams up or down as the weekend continues.
I think it matters more for the higher seeds.
Quote from: brewcity77 on March 15, 2025, 03:25:36 PMThis is why I use the process I do. Every time I bracket, I start with blank spreadsheets so all the data is reconsidered anew. I'm not just moving teams up and down, I'm starting over and re-evaluating based on all the latest metrics and full season results.
Personally speaking, I want us to get a 7. I'd even rather a 6. And anticipating these questions today, I ran this by a number of bracketology friends to get their consensus. Everyone I talked to agreed with the 8. We all have different processes, different priorities, but no one disagreed with the 8.
There are about 12 teams with 6-seed profiles. 2 of those will be 5s, 4 will be 6s, 4 will be 7s, and 2 will be 8s. Our resume is among the worst of those which is why it landed where it did. I'd love a better seed, but I'm not going to be a false hope merchant. As it stands, in this field, we deserve an 8. That's just the reality of it. Hope I'm wrong.
Brew
I'm trying to talk myself into us back at the 7 line.
Would you be surprised at all to see us ahead of Missouri? They have a sub .500 record against the Top 2 Quadrants and are just 3-7 on the road.
We have more Q1+Q2 wins and have a 7-6 road record.
Or are the predictives for Mizzou enough to keep them there barring surpise?
Yeah...If we fall to the 8 9 line...
The NCAA's are all about match-ups...
3 of the 4 teams on line 1 are "ultra-physical"...
2 of the 4 on line 2 are also...
Looks like one win and out this year....
Quote from: burger on March 16, 2025, 07:39:33 AMLooks like one win and out this year....
I'll... take it?
While I don't expect it, my best case scenario would be for MU to get a 7 seed and be put in a pod with MSU.
I think MU would match up better with the Spartans than any of the other 1 and 2 seeds if MU is fortunate enough to get past the first round.
My guess.
8-seed v. Baylor in Wichita with the winner likely playing Houston.
For context, this is an incredibly strong year for the top 30 teams. Marquette is 28th in Kenpom, with KP Net Rating is +21.59.
I went back to 2002, looking at 24 years worth of data. 22 of those years, Marquette's rating would be top 20 in Kenpom. The only other year outside the top 20 would be 2017, when we'd rank 24th.
Using T Rank to compare Marquette's resumé to the 10 most similar resumés, only Seton Hall in 2018 got as low as an 8. The other 9 teams had a seed range of 5-7. The overall average tournament seed (for all 10 years) was a 6.
In conclusion, it's a top heavy year for college basketball. This year's Marquette team is good enough for a 6 seed most years, if not a 5. But due to the nature of this particular season, Marquette very well could be an 8 seed.
Quote from: The Sultan on March 16, 2025, 09:19:25 AMMy guess.
8-seed v. Baylor in Wichita with the winner likely playing Houston.
Gah. Houston and Baylor can't be together. So I will say the 9-seed will be New Mexico.
Quote from: The Sultan on March 16, 2025, 09:44:51 AMGah. Houston and Baylor can't be together. So I will say the 9-seed will be New Mexico.
Lunardi has us vs Baylor, with Auburn next as of last night. Haven't checked this morning.
Quote from: HutchwasClutch on March 16, 2025, 09:47:42 AMLunardi has this matchup, with Auburn next as of last night. Haven't checked this morning.
Neither one of those second round match-ups is great.
Quote from: The Sultan on March 16, 2025, 09:48:38 AMNeither one of those second round match-ups is great.
Nope. Sure aren't.
It is interesting to me that MU has wins over WI, Maryland, Purdue - who project to be 3, 4, and 5 seeds by Lunardi - yet he has MU an 8 seed and inferior Big 10 teams Oregon and Illinois he has as 5 and 6 seeds.
I do not get the love for Illinois, despite their 20 ranking in Ken Pom.
All this aside I know the above isn't how seeding is done, but it seems to me our earlier season wins against the top of the Big 10 should carry us above an 8 seed.
Quote from: Elonsmusk on March 16, 2025, 09:51:41 AMIt is interesting to me that MU has wins over WI, Maryland, Purdue - who project to be 3, 4, and 5 seeds by Lunardi - yet he has MU an 8 seed and inferior Big 10 teams Oregon and Illinois he has as 5 and 6 seeds.
I do not get the love for Illinois, despite their 20 ranking in Ken Pom.
All this aside I know the above isn't how seeding is done, but it seems to me our earlier season wins against the top of the Big 10 should carry us above an 8 seed.
It's the weakness of the Big East this year. Very top heavy with a lot of bad programs at the bottom.
5 BE programs had NET rankings of 80 or worse. Only 2 B10 programs were ranked similarly.
Quote from: BE_GoldenEagle on March 15, 2025, 10:29:00 PMBrew
I'm trying to talk myself into us back at the 7 line.
Would you be surprised at all to see us ahead of Missouri? They have a sub .500 record against the Top 2 Quadrants and are just 3-7 on the road.
We have more Q1+Q2 wins and have a 7-6 road record.
Or are the predictives for Mizzou enough to keep them there barring surpise?
No high major team that has entered Selection Sunday ranked top-15 in kenpom has been lower than a 6. That fits Mizzou. I do see the negatives to Missouri and an 8 seed wouldn't completely shock me, but their win at Florida is huge, and is bolstered by another win over a top-2 seed in Alabama. I just think their top end wins overpower what we have.
Quote from: wisblue on March 16, 2025, 09:08:35 AMWhile I don't expect it, my best case scenario would be for MU to get a 7 seed and be put in a pod with MSU.
I think MU would match up better with the Spartans than any of the other 1 and 2 seeds if MU is fortunate enough to get past the first round.
hmmmm