Far be it from me to step on Tower's game analysis toes, but it came to my attention that even the nerdiest of peeps I talk to weren't aware of Hoop-Explorer's Player Impact grades that are published after every game. It's an insane set of regressions I won't pretend to understand, but the results seem pretty good.
LINK HERE (https://painttouches.com/2025/02/18/improving-player-grades-insights-from-hoop-explorer/?utm_source=MUScoop&utm_medium=forum)
To make it easier, I pulled out the individual player scores for every game this season and put them in a dashboard in the link above. (I'm using an intentionally difficult to see image to get you to click)
(https://painttouches.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/rapm-per-game.png?w=1024)
Please, for the love of all that is good, step on my toes. I will happily cede it to you. I love reading the numbers stuff.
And those are some very interesting numbers.
Very interesting.
Really shows the inconsistency of the Freshman and bench as a whole, and the recent drop off from 4 non-Kam starters minus the most recent from Stevie.
This is super cool--love it
I love that. You gonna update that graphic after every game?
Quote from: BrewCity83 on February 18, 2025, 03:46:51 PMThis is super cool--love it
It is...but you can't have all those red blocks in the upper left hand corner.
Thanks, love the charts and graphs with color that's meaningful.
I would only say your interpretation with 10+ being All American is a bit generous though certainly we've had a few of those this season.
But that's a quibble. It's great stuff. Kudos to you and Brewcity77 for providing stuff like this.
Great stuff. Thank you. Really backs up the eye test.
Some of the fall off with Ben is hopefully due to injury. And as Rico has mentioned Tre being injured could be having a clear impact on his performance all season.
Ty.
Quote from: MU82 on February 18, 2025, 04:12:04 PMI love that. You gonna update that graphic after every game?
Takes a few hours, but I'll do my best. The dashboard is updated with last night's scores.
Quote from: PaintTouches on February 19, 2025, 08:00:10 AMTakes a few hours, but I'll do my best. The dashboard is updated with last night's scores.
Thank you! Really interesting to see how the stats meet the eye test.
Quote from: The Sultan on February 18, 2025, 04:13:15 PMIt is...but you can't have all those red blocks in the upper left hand corner.
You're right. The updated chart for this morning's upper left corner is all green. Gotta get a string of those going.
If this can't be used as a tool to criticize players and Shaka for nut hitting the portal, then what is the point?
What would it have shown for the Chones/Alcindor match up?
Quote from: tower912 on February 19, 2025, 11:18:50 AMIf this can't be used as a tool to criticize players and Shaka for nut hitting the portal, then what is the point?
What would it have shown for the Chones/Alcindor match up?
What does "Brad Davidsoning" the portal even mean?
Glorious. No way I am changing that.
Quote from: Shooter McGavin on February 18, 2025, 06:38:54 PMGreat stuff. Thank you. Really backs up the eye test.
Some of the fall off with Ben is hopefully due to injury. And as Rico has mentioned Tre being injured could be having a clear impact on his performance all season.
Tre must have looked at the graph before the game.😂 I know it was only seton hall but he played well. Liked what he said after the game about finally not feeling pressure all the time on the court. Hope his confidence continues to grow. I'm especially excited about how Shaka stated the second team in practice is getting more confident and sometimes beating the starters while scrimmaging. Hopefully this can be a watershed time of the year for the growth and winning portion of the three step plan.
Great night for Ben. Also noticed that the highest single-game number after Kam's two best games was Ben's game vs. the BADgers.
Quote from: FairWeatherEagle on February 18, 2025, 05:22:36 PMI would only say your interpretation with 10+ being All American is a bit generous though certainly we've had a few of those this season.
I got some help from the creator of the site as to how best to interpret the scale.
0-2: Role player/deep bench
2-4: Rotation caliber
4-6: Starter
6-8: Star
8-10: All Conference
10+: All American
For the full season, there are only 11 players above the 10.0 threshold.
1. Broome: +12
2. Flagg: +11.9
6. Kam: +10.6
Obviously you will have individual games that far surpass the general scale, but overall I do think it holds up.
Quote from: PaintTouches on February 19, 2025, 12:10:44 PMI got some help from the creator of the site as to how best to interpret the scale.
0-2: Role player/deep bench
2-4: Rotation caliber
4-6: Starter
6-8: Star
8-10: All Conference
10+: All American
For the full season, there are only 11 players above the 10.0 threshold.
1. Broome: +12
2. Flagg: +11.9
6. Kam: +10.6
Obviously you will have individual games that far surpass the general scale, but overall I do think it holds up.
Yep. And, it is a solid look at why guys like Broome, Flagg and Kam are going to be All-Americans. They are playing at a high level almost every game.
Quote from: PaintTouches on February 19, 2025, 08:00:10 AMTakes a few hours, but I'll do my best. The dashboard is updated with last night's scores.
It takes you a few hours? Huh. It only takes me a few minutes to view it!
Seriously, thanks for your efforts so far, and for whatever you do going forward.
Such an excellent post. Love being able to visualize this kind of thing.
Love the data. I hope it aligns with Scoop's SOTG awards.
It's cool to see how players like Broome and Kam are consistently showing up.
Broome really swept to the top of the standings. He's cleaning up in lots of categories.
Our starting lineup has done quite well
https://x.com/evanmiya/status/1893012048684208614?s=61&t=6XPB8f4sAKmJIzxgMcsCjw
Quote from: MuMark on February 21, 2025, 01:01:44 PMOur starting lineup has done quite well
Clemson at the top, Georgetown right under us. I'm not sure how to read this other than those teams don't do great off the bench.
Not that it makes it feel any better, but grades are updated.
Link (https://lookerstudio.google.com/u/0/reporting/ffa0615f-e483-4501-b1ed-0fa945dc7946/page/2jCxD?params=%7B%22df13%22:%22include%25EE%2580%25800%25EE%2580%2580IN%25EE%2580%2580Villanova%22%7D)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GkZVCmOW0AANTtO?format=png&name=900x900)
Ouch!
Strangely, this analysis says Ben had a poor game last night. Usually the eye test and the box score matches up well with these results. How do we explain that?
Quote from: BrewCity83 on February 26, 2025, 12:10:53 PMStrangely, this analysis says Ben had a poor game last night. Usually the eye test and the box score matches up well with these results. How do we explain that?
The above was the Villanova game and not the Providence game.
Quote from: mutodd5 on February 26, 2025, 01:54:56 PMThe above was the Villanova game and not the Providence game.
If you click on the link, it's updated to include PC. Ben got a 1.3, tied for third worst on the team. Put me in the camp that would like a little more explanation as to why.
Quote from: Its DJOver on February 26, 2025, 02:01:39 PMIf you click on the link, it's updated to include PC. Ben got a 1.3, tied for third worst on the team. Put me in the camp that would like a little more explanation as to why.
It's gotta be a mistake
Quote from: DoctorV on February 26, 2025, 09:11:57 PMIt's gotta be a mistake
Hopefully PT will comment with a reason. Even in the original article it just says the formula is based on RAPM, without giving any details on how that's calculated. Some here may already know, and it may be to complicated for some (me) to fully understand, but it does seem like an extreme outlier compared to the box score, and the eye test.
Quote from: Its DJOver on February 26, 2025, 09:25:24 PMHopefully PT will comment with a reason. Even in the original article it just says the formula is based on RAPM, without giving any details on how that's calculated. Some here may already know, and it may be to complicated for some (me) to fully understand, but it does seem like an extreme outlier compared to the box score, and the eye test.
Yeah, that one shocked me too, because it didn't match the eye test at all. But the thing about RAPM is it's primarily an on/off measure, with a ton of math behind it to try and pinpoint who the main cause of that on/off number is. It does that by running regressions based on all of the lineup combinations. The other thing you have to remember is that garbage time is filtered out. So after a certain blowout threshold (full explanation here (https://hoop-explorer.blogspot.com/2020/01/garbage-time.html)) the stats stop counting.
So per Hoop Explorer last night, there were only 56 non-blowout possessions. Ben played 33 of those and MU was +0 in that span. 32 points scored, 32 points allowed. Once you adjust for opp strength and set to 100 poss (which is why single game RAPM is always to be taken with a grain of salt), it shows that MU had an AdjOrtg of 109.9 and an AdjDratg of 92.4. So MU had a net rating of +17.5 in Ben's minutes.
However, that means that MU was significantly better when Ben was off the court. Per HE, MU was +28 with Gold off (excluding garbage time). So MU's AdjNet Rtg with Ben off the court was +112.8. Yes, this is just sample size theatre, but the RAPM calculation will then use these inputs, add in the box score impact and tell us that while Ben was a net positive, MU's results were more about other players than him.
Using raw +/- from CBB Analytics, MU was only +1 until a late 2nd half flurry of +7 from 7:27 to 2:06. So slightly different stats, but similar narrative of most of Ben's impact coming late, with the game decided.
Parham being so high on the game score also surprised me, but he was a +14 in the first half and +17 overall. All of this is to say, I would still say Ben played well overall, and these fancy numbers are a good tool, but not definitive.
(https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/1038097698378752020/1344682334611443752/image.png?ex=67c1cc83&is=67c07b03&hm=899f3989736b6edf6520f08b7c2c5dfe2bd932e0d941e0bf1f4b8502f3b24c20&=&format=webp&quality=lossless)
Yea, that's a lot of words just to reinforce both the idea that it is to complicated for me to understand and that, while useful, a lot of these stats can still be flawed based on limited sample size, or not having full context of situations.
TL;DR
Ben was a +8 in a 30 point win, which was significantly lower than the rest of the starters.
Kam: +36
Stevie: +23
Chase: +23
Jop: +21
(https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/1038097698378752020/1344683162198081637/image.png?ex=67c1cd48&is=67c07bc8&hm=1a011ff4729aa362858fed62b02660ee74d6e356c1c5a059044edd7e6419c4cc&=&format=webp&quality=lossless)
Did Ben lose his SoG because of this?
(https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/1037928461857194046/1345798357603324075/image.png?ex=67c5dbe4&is=67c48a64&hm=be1a04a46331416b89f1e61b971e111ec22c40d82e297a3bc8fd19e49d37aa17&=&format=webp&quality=lossless)
Dashboard has been updated and it really liked Benny.
https://lookerstudio.google.com/u/0/reporting/ffa0615f-e483-4501-b1ed-0fa945dc7946/page/2jCxD (https://lookerstudio.google.com/u/0/reporting/ffa0615f-e483-4501-b1ed-0fa945dc7946/page/2jCxD)
We are at the point of the season where we don't need to see Hamilton or Owens until next year.
Quote from: jfp61 on March 02, 2025, 10:56:18 AMWe are at the point of the season where we don't need to see Hamilton or Owens until next year.
Owens length is impactful. He and Tre should be getting 1st half minutes as needed.
The other 7 can take them to the finish line in the 2nd half.
Owens is now the 9th man in the rotation.
Quote from: jfp61 on March 02, 2025, 10:56:18 AMWe are at the point of the season where we don't need to see Hamilton or Owens until next year.
Tend to agree, though with Caedin I think there are minutes where he can be useful to give Ben a breather. Royce struggles with the really big, physical posts.
We'll have a heck of a player when Damarius' brain and feet sync up.
It was troubling to see Damarius drive into traffic and get into trouble time after time last night.
The staff really has a ton of work to do if they think he should be more of a consistent ball handler than a slashing wing or more of an outside/in type of guy that doesn't handle as much as Jop.
He looks like he has all the tools, but then he seems to get the yips so quickly, it's frustrating for him and Shaka I'm sure.
As for that chart as a whole two things jump out at me-
1) Kam, Stevie, and Chase should get all the minutes they can handle down the stretch. Something we mostly knew, but needs to be re-iterated in the single elimination portion of the season.
Also nice to see B2B solid games by Ben and Jop, so yea we may be heading back towards the starting 5 getting the lions share.
2) B2B reds by Zaide after his huge game. Eye test plays better for him than that chart, but still odd to see
Dr. V, you do realize that you are saying young players can be inconsistent. They almost always are. All 10 are going to need to be the best versions of themselves this week.