One thing is for sure, these last two games (not counting FGC) appear poised to play a huge role in determining our NCAA tournament success or failure. MU has played themselves into a good position, where if we win them both (which I believe we probably will), our record, RPI, SOS (point of emphasis this year). will all be in good shape, and we should get a positive bump from the committee for our record in our last 12 games (another point of emphasis this year). Even if we went just 1-1 in the BET that would put us in that 4-5 seed range, maybe even 3 depending what happens in New York, with a legit Sweet 16 opportunity. Match-ups and all that stuff still come into play, but you get my point.
However, if we stumble in these last 2, the RPI, SOS, etc. will still be respectable, but we will certainly get dinged for our record in the last 12 games, and we fall into that 7-10 seed range where we will be fortunate to get out of the first round.
Obviously, the BET will play a role, but in the end you typically get the seed you deserve, or close to it anyway. If we are as good as I think we probably are, we'll win these 2 games - or at least one of them, and be in pretty good shape when it comes time for the committee to put a number next to our name. If we don't, we just aren't that good, and that 7-10 seed will be appropriate.
To have any shot at a #3 seed (Top 12 team in the country) we MUST beat G'Town on Saturday AND have a good run in the BET. I'd think we'd have to go all the way to the finals, if not win the thing to get a 3 seed. I'm guessing (at this point) a 5 seed, maybe a 4, with a 3 seed only possible if everything goes great.
I agree with Avenue.
But I can't see us anywhere near the 10 seed, even if we lose out. (Not counting the FGC game). At worst case, with a 22-9 record and our RPI, etc., we would still be no lower than 7 or 8.
Unless Jerel or somebody gets hurt again and we get downgraded for that.
as it stands we are most likely a 5, with Gtown, louisville, ND, and Uconn all higher seeds than us........my guess is
if we split the next two and lose in the first round i think we drop to a 6
if we split the next two conf games and win 1 game in the BE tourn i think we stay at the 5 spot
if we split and win 2 games we jump to the 4, especially if the win is against Gtown on sat
if we split and make it to the final of the conf tournament but lose we will be on the 3/4 bubble
if we split and win the conf. tournament we will be a 3
if we win both remaining conf games and lose early in conf tourn still a 5, make it to the semis of the tournament we are a 4, to the finals probably a 3, and win the conf tournament prob still a 3
if we lose both and lose in the first round of the conf tournament prob a 7, win 1 game in conf tournament prob a on 5/6 border, win 2 and prob a 5, make it to the final and prob a 4
my gut tells me that we split these next two, even though id like to see two wins. also, if we win one of the next two games and dont lose to the 11 or 12 seed in the conf tournament i dont think we get less than a 5 which looks pretty good compares to a few weeks ago. Now, if we split and win a few games in the conf tournament we can be a 4, or with winning it be a 3
as i see it the difference between a 5 and a 4 is minimal. i know i know the dreaded 5/12 matchup but if we cant beat the 12 seed then where are we going anyway right? either way to get to the sweet 16 you are prob gonna have to beat either the 5 or 4 and then beat the 1 to move further. The difference between the 4 and the 3 is much bigger than the 5 and 4
I'd rather be a 6 seed rather than a 4 or 5. Its like being a 3. Not much difference in playing a 14 or 11. At 6 if you win worse case is you play 3. However, if 3 gets upset you could wind up playing a 14. Then you would be matched up with 2. However if 2 gets upset then worse case is playing a 7.