Is today the most important regular season game of Shaka's tenure to date? I know lots of prima facie reasons to say I'm on crack - it doesn't clinch a title, it's not determinative for making the Tourney, it's early February, it's Creighton (not UCONN or NOVA or UW) and they're not even ranked.
BUT - I think there are some arguments to be made that it is:
1) Since dropping 4 straight at the end of 2021 in Shaka's first season, we have not lost 3 straight. 3 in a row is definitely a skid.
2) Losing today eliminates almost any realistic chance at the BE regular season title
3) Losing today makes a 2 seed a very long shot and starts to put a protected seed on wobbly ground.
In sum, I think today's game is as important as any single regular season game for short and long-term trajectory of the program. Lose today and this season is definitely in decline - from a position of being the drivers seat for the BE title and a 2 (if not 1) seed we'll be looking at fighting for a top-3 and protected seed - still a great season but a worse outcome than we would have hoped/expected on February 1. But also - Shaka's trajectory since coming to MU has been arguably up or level - of course we won't get a 2 seed or better every year, but if we don't match that it would be the first real season-long "regression" of the Shaka era.
All that said, it's regular season so who cares. Win 6 straight in March I don't care if we start as a 1 seed or an 8 seed. But I think this is a really important game and Shaka will have the boys ready for a major resilience statement win. Go Marquette!
No
Nice post 1SE.
I, for one, place more value on this one after reading it.
Uncle Rico, control yourself
No.
Quote from: DoctorV on February 08, 2025, 07:47:52 AMNice post 1SE.
I, for one, place more value on this one after reading it.
Uncle Rico, control yourself
No
NO ! ! ! 8-)
LOL not even close, NO
The snarky No-ers
Usual suspects.
Go ahead, reply and say No....
Quote from: FairWeatherEagle on February 08, 2025, 09:54:21 AMThe snarky No-ers
Usual suspects.
Go ahead, reply and say No....
No
It may not be the most important, but iTtis right up there
Quote from: willie warrior on February 08, 2025, 09:57:37 AMIt may not be the most important, but iTtis right up there
Somewhere today, a doctor will be performing lifesaving surgery on someone's family member. This is bigger
Quote from: FairWeatherEagle on February 08, 2025, 09:54:21 AMThe snarky No-ers
Usual suspects.
Go ahead, reply and say No....
No.
And posters claim they're not overreacting here. 😂
Quote from: FairWeatherEagle on February 08, 2025, 09:54:21 AMThe snarky No-ers
Usual suspects.
Go ahead, reply and say No....
Sorry. But I have no idea how anyone could claim that this is the most important regular season game of his tenure.
A win and they likely don't win the conference anyway. Plus it has no real bearing on their ultimate success in the NCAAs.
Scoopers really lack a lot of perspective.
Quote from: 1SE on February 08, 2025, 04:24:47 AMLosing today eliminates almost any realistic chance at the BE regular season title
Losing today makes a 2 seed a very long shot and starts to put a protected seed on wobbly ground.
All that said, it's regular season so who cares. Win 6 straight in March I don't care if we start as a 1 seed or an 8 seed.
We are already on shaky ground for winning the regular season title. Sj's win @ UCONN put them in the driver's seat.
Barring a sweep of the rest of our BE season, I think our chances a #2 seed are already toast. Losses like ours to unranked Xavier at home does not impress the Selection Committee when they are awarding #2 seeds.
Yes, we could win the title and get a #2 seed and a win today is essential for those things to happen, but the rest of the season includes a trip to Connecticut and a rematch of SJ.
In answer to your question about "who cares?'...
I do, and I'll bet that many others here do also. Thirty-some games, and "who cares?" ::)
You
are on crack if you think we will go 6 straight in the tourney.
We have a good team that is clearly in a slump. Just because a loss today makes it 3 straight is not enough reason to panic, because we are playing a very solid Creighton team on a win streak on their court on a Saturday afternoon. Now if we were playing Seton Hall today and lost....yeah, that would really be bad.
Let's not judge simply on the game without taking into account who the opponent is and where and when it is being played.
Giving up 3 straight baskets or missing 3 straight shots is reason to panic for some.
Quote from: Scoop Snoop on February 08, 2025, 10:17:14 AMWe are already on shaky ground for winning the regular season title. Sj's win @ UCONN put them in the driver's seat.
Barring a sweep of the rest of our BE season, I think our chances a #2 seed are already toast. Losses like ours to unranked Xavier at home does not impress the Selection Committee when they are awarding #2 seeds.
Yes, we could win the title and get a #2 seed and a win today is essential for those things to happen, but the rest of the season includes a trip to Connecticut and a rematch of SJ.
In answer to your question about "who cares?'...I do, and I'll bet that many others here do also. Thirty-some games, and "who cares?" ::)
You are on crack if you think we will go 6 straight in the tourney.
We have a good team that is clearly in a slump. Just because a loss today makes it 3 straight is not enough reason to panic, because we are playing a very solid Creighton team on a win streak on their court on a Saturday afternoon. Now if we were playing Seton Hall today and lost....yeah, that would really be bad.
Let's not judge simply on the game without taking into account who the opponent is and where and when it is being played.
The committee made Marquette a 2-seed that lost at home last year to a bad Butler team. They made Marquette a 2-seed that lost at home to bad Wisconsin team two years ago.
North Carolina was a 1-seed last year that lost to 3 non-tournament teams. Arizona was a 2-seed last year with an 18-point loss at Stanford (105 in KenPom), a loss at KenPom 155 Oregon State and 13-point loss to close the season at KenPom 85 USC
Arizona was a 2-seed 2 years ago despite a 15 point loss at KenPom 71, Utah, a 13-point loss at home to Wazzu, KenPom 67 and a 19-point loss at NIT-bound Oregon.
Obviously not given there are games to go, but does raise questions.
No.
But unlike the rest I have an answer to what was. It was Saturday, February 21, 2023 at Creighton.
Leading up to that game was the last gasp emotional home win over Xavier with the last second O-Max dunk to win it. We came into the day 13-3 in the Big East, with both Creighton and Xavier at 12-4. The Jays were favored with a chance to tie us atop the standings. When Xavier lost at Villanova to fall to 12-5, it was a huge opportunity. When we fell behind by 12 in the first half, and trailed by 8 at halftime, it didn't look great. But we outscored them by 10 in the second to leave with a 73-71 win and a commanding two game lead over both Creighton and Xavier.
We clinched a share at home against DePaul in our next game and the outright title against Butler a few days later, but it was the road game at Creighton that basically sealed the Big East title and our return as a true force in the league.
Quote from: Uncle Rico on February 08, 2025, 10:33:21 AMThe committee made Marquette a 2-seed that lost at home last year to a bad Butler team. They made Marquette a 2-seed that lost at home to bad Wisconsin team two years ago.
North Carolina was a 1-seed last year that lost to 3 non-tournament teams. Arizona was a 2-seed last year with an 18-point loss at Stanford (105 in KenPom), a loss at KenPom 155 Oregon State and 13-point loss to close the season at KenPom 85 USC
Arizona was a 2-seed 2 years ago despite a 15 point loss at KenPom 71, Utah, a 13-point loss at home to Wazzu, KenPom 67 and a 19-point loss at NIT-bound Oregon.
Ya GOT me Rico. Its just that I think it's fair to think that our 2 seed
may be in jeopardy. Admittedly hyperbole on my part
brew is wise.
It's pretty simple. Win, no problemo. Lose, lots of problemo. That is why we play the games. Let's see if we can turn things around today. Win or lose today we are still in the hunt. Look at NC state last year. I rather be cold now and hot at tournament time. lots of basketball to be played and I am having fun watching the games.
Funny how we all forgot the Wojo years and waiting to see that light at the end of tunnel. Now that we are in that light all some see here is darkness. Yeah, stormy clouds are part of a season, but storms pass, and the sun does come out. I hope we find our silver lining today. If not, there is still more basketball to be played, and we are still in contention unlike many of the Wojo years.
Let's not jump the shark until we have to.
Quote from: muwarrior69 on February 08, 2025, 10:57:53 AMIt's pretty simple. Win, no problemo. Lose, lots of problemo.
Not really. If we lose, we lose. It will be disappointing but doesn't point to any problems we know didn't exist already.
Quote from: Scoop Snoop on February 08, 2025, 10:48:55 AMYa GOT me Rico. Its just that I think it's fair to think that our 2 seed may be in jeopardy. Admittedly hyperbole on my part
It is in jeopardy. They aren't a 2-seed at the moment and probably won't get a 2-seed. They haven't been playing good enough to think they will get a 2-seed but I'll watch and cheer for them and enjoy the ride in what's easily been the best run of mubb hoops in awhile. 2-seed? No.
However, we react in the moment instead of stepping back and looking at history and the big picture. And the big picture is, Marquette has a lot of hoops to play and so does everyone else. The final story hasn't been written
Quote from: Scoop Snoop on February 08, 2025, 10:48:55 AMYa GOT me Rico. Its just that I think it's fair to think that our 2 seed may be in jeopardy. Admittedly hyperbole on my part
Our 2 seed is already in serious jeopardy regardless of what happens today......just a lot of strong teams at the top this season.
We will in all likelihood end up as a 3-5 seed.
Which is a great season and one that we all would have signed up for at the start.
Rico is wise as well.
Quote from: The Sultan on February 08, 2025, 10:08:43 AMSorry. But I have no idea how anyone could claim that this is the most important regular season game of his tenure.
A win and they likely don't win the conference anyway. Plus it has no real bearing on their ultimate success in the NCAAs.
Scoopers really lack a lot of perspective.
I agree with you on it not being the biggest game for Shaka. I was just reacting (over reacting) to the terse answer that seems to put-down the author rather than just disagree.
Scoopers don't lack perspective....that have perspectives that we sometimes disagree with. And we're scoopers too.
I suppose Scoop would be a lot less a forum if we removed all the "smart-ass-ness"
Quote from: FairWeatherEagle on February 08, 2025, 11:06:04 AMScoopers don't lack perspective.
LOL...you new here? The average Scooper panics by halftime.
Quote from: The Sultan on February 08, 2025, 11:01:01 AMNot really. If we lose, we lose. It will be disappointing but doesn't point to any problems we know didn't exist already.
You beat me to it.
Despite my recent posts, I still think Shaka and the team emerge strong again. This is admittedly on faith- they've done it before and can do it again.
The biggest problem I have with the post is that it does not address that the 3 game stretch consists of UCONN, SJ, and Creighton. Getting hung up on the possibility of 3 straight losses and drawing conclusions if that happens really needs to be put in context.
I hope not. I hope his tenure at MU is a long one. He inherited a program that was a mess. Three winning seasons in conference in the prior 7. He's in his 4th season. He has BE conference and tournament titles and an NCAA bid every season. It even took Jay Wright 8 seasons to get Villanova to a FF and about 15 to get them a title. It's better for my blood pressure to think of how far the program has come and the fact that they are playing important games. It's fine to be disappointed about a particular game, but I don't want to look the gift horse in the mouth. It's a big game but one of many and I hope many more.
Quote from: MuMark on February 08, 2025, 11:04:57 AMOur 2 seed is already in serious jeopardy regardless of what happens today......just a lot of strong teams at the top this season.
We will in all likelihood end up as a 3-5 seed.
Which is a great season and one that we all would have signed up for at the start.
COLE
Quote from: brewcity77 on February 08, 2025, 10:48:01 AMNo.
But unlike the rest I have an answer to what was. It was Saturday, February 21, 2023 at Creighton.
Leading up to that game was the last gasp emotional home win over Xavier with the last second O-Max dunk to win it. We came into the day 13-3 in the Big East, with both Creighton and Xavier at 12-4. The Jays were favored with a chance to tie us atop the standings. When Xavier lost at Villanova to fall to 12-5, it was a huge opportunity. When we fell behind by 12 in the first half, and trailed by 8 at halftime, it didn't look great. But we outscored them by 10 in the second to leave with a 73-71 win and a commanding two game lead over both Creighton and Xavier.
We clinched a share at home against DePaul in our next game and the outright title against Butler a few days later, but it was the road game at Creighton that basically sealed the Big East title and our return as a true force in the league.
Agree with everything except that game was on a Tuesday.
The 2023 Xavier game was the most important because I got to have a beer with Brewcity77 afterwards.
Quote from: Newsdreams on February 08, 2025, 11:42:06 AMCOLE
Apparently I'm the mayor of Coletown....... 8-)
Ps we are doomed..... https://x.com/bigeastratings/status/1888285974213366001?s=61&t=6XPB8f4sAKmJIzxgMcsCjw
So who's breaking the news to Shaka that he lost the most important regular season game since he came to MU?
Quote from: The Sultan on February 08, 2025, 03:14:04 PMSo who's breaking the news to Shaka that he lost the most important regular season game since he came to MU?
Not Broeker who would have kept riding with Wojo
Quote from: The Sultan on February 08, 2025, 03:14:04 PMSo who's breaking the news to Shaka that he lost the most important regular season game since he came to MU?
Wardle will take care of that. He'll hand Shaka a couple of cardboard boxes and tell him "you got 15 minutes to get your crap out of
my office".
I'm glad the COLE clan is back and happy with 3 losses in a row so they have the chance to show how chill they are.
Frankly, I remember when we were flirting w #1 and on most people's lists as a title contender.
If you're not disappointed with how the last 3 weeks of the season have gone you might as well write a letter to bring back Wojo.
Quote from: 1SE on February 08, 2025, 03:28:43 PMI'm glad the COLE clan is back and happy with 3 losses in a row so they have the chance to show how chill they are.
Frankly, I remember when we were flirting w #1 and on most people's lists as a title contender.
If you're not disappointed with how the last 3 weeks of the season have gone you might as well write a letter to bring back Wojo.
No one on this board is happy.
Quote from: Johnny B on February 08, 2025, 03:31:36 PMNo one on this board is happy.
If this gets us out of the Shaka business into the portal business, it'll be worth it
Quote from: MuMark on February 08, 2025, 11:04:57 AMOur 2 seed is already in serious jeopardy regardless of what happens today......just a lot of strong teams at the top this season.
We will in all likelihood end up as a 3-5 seed.
Which is a great season and one that we all would have signed up for at the start.
5 is generous - not winning @UConn or home against STJ. @ villanova is a tossup at best, easily could blow a game at GT 3 - 7 to end the BE season. no 5 seed
Quote from: 1SE on February 08, 2025, 03:28:43 PMI'm glad the COLE clan is back and happy with 3 losses in a row so they have the chance to show how chill they are.
Frankly, I remember when we were flirting w #1 and on most people's lists as a title contender.
If you're not disappointed with how the last 3 weeks of the season have gone you might as well write a letter to bring back Wojo.
I am going through this stretch with the same calm equanimity I exhibited during the Wojo era. Which led to the hysterically funny personal attacks. Well, funny to me. It just isn't in me to panic and lose my crap. Bring on the name calling!
Quote from: PointWarrior on February 08, 2025, 03:33:10 PM5 is generous - not winning @UConn or home against STJ. @ villanova is a tossup at best, easily could blow a game at GT 3 - 7 to end the BE season. no 5 seed
Definitely going 0-10.
No
Quote from: wadesworld on February 08, 2025, 03:37:32 PMDefinitely going 0-10.
0-3 so far - what's your prediction for the next 7? I say 3-4...
Quote from: wadesworld on February 08, 2025, 03:37:32 PMDefinitely going 0-10.
That's the best case scenario. At this point, it's clear Shaka is in over his head in the Big East. He's good in a league like the Horizon but not with the big boys. His roster construction has been bad, he doesn't understand the modern era, his teams are unprepared and worst yet, nerds.
Quote from: tower912 on February 08, 2025, 03:36:00 PMI am going through this stretch with the same calm equanimity I exhibited during the Wojo era. Which led to the hysterically funny personal attacks. Well, funny to me. It just isn't in me to panic and lose my crap. Bring on the name calling!
Like everyone else here, I hope these 3 games are just a blip on what is otherwise the continued upward trajectory of the Shaka era. No one can deny Shaka, to date, has blown away most expectations. We'll see.
Quote from: 1SE on February 08, 2025, 03:42:07 PMLike everyone else here, I hope these 3 games are just a blip on what is otherwise the continued upward trajectory of the Shaka era. No one can deny Shaka, to date, has blown away most expectations. We'll see.
These three games have been frustrating no doubt, but let's have some perspective here. We were in 1 possession games down the stretch on the road against the first and second place teams in the Big East. We're acting like these were games we should've won by 15. They were winnable games, but games we were road dogs in.
Quote from: 1SE on February 08, 2025, 03:28:43 PMI'm glad the COLE clan is back and happy with 3 losses in a row so they have the chance to show how chill they are.
Frankly, I remember when we were flirting w #1 and on most people's lists as a title contender.
If you're not disappointed with how the last 3 weeks of the season have gone you might as well write a letter to bring back Wojo.
Who's happy about losing?
I just have the perspective to put it in context. You declared it the most important regular season game in Shaka's tenure. 😂😂😂
Quote from: wadesworld on February 08, 2025, 03:45:02 PMThese three games have been frustrating no doubt, but let's have some perspective here. We were in 1 possession games down the stretch on the road against the first and second place teams in the Big East. We're acting like these were games we should've won by 15. They were winnable games, but games we were road dogs in.
We were the best team in the BE in rankings and metrics going in. We should have won at least one of them. We didn't, fine, it's where we are now. But that puts a lot more pressure on a strong close to the season. Wojo won lots on December and January too.
Quote from: 1SE on February 08, 2025, 03:49:15 PMWe were the best team in the BE in rankings and metrics going in. We should have won at least one of them. We didn't, fine, it's where we are now. But that puts a lot more pressure on a strong close to the season. Wojo won lots on December and January too.
Yet the metrics said we should lose both of those games.
But yeah. Shaka's tenure has been very similar to Wojo's.
Quote from: 1SE on February 08, 2025, 03:49:15 PMWe were the best team in the BE in rankings and metrics going in. We should have won at least one of them. We didn't, fine, it's where we are now. But that puts a lot more pressure on a strong close to the season. Wojo won lots on December and January too.
😂😂😂
Quote from: 1SE on February 08, 2025, 03:49:15 PMWe were the best team in the BE in rankings and metrics going in. We should have won at least one of them. We didn't, fine, it's where we are now. But that puts a lot more pressure on a strong close to the season. Wojo won lots on December and January too.
That's where I'm at, too. Shaka hasn't won in February or March while at Marquette. The constant February fades under him are getting old
Quote from: wadesworld on February 08, 2025, 03:50:42 PMYet the metrics said we should lose both of those games.
But yeah. Shaka's tenure has been very similar to Wojo's.
The odds of us losing 3 in a row were not high.
go 6-1 to close the season from here and great.
go 3-4 and you can't avoid the Feb fade comparisons.
Quote from: 1SE on February 08, 2025, 03:55:07 PMThe odds of us losing 3 in a row were not high.
go 6-1 to close the season from here and great.
go 3-4 and you can't avoid the Feb fade comparisons.
Yup, the patented Shaka Smart February fade is right on schedule.
Quote from: 1SE on February 08, 2025, 03:55:07 PMThe odds of us losing 3 in a row were not high.
This is horribly reductive and lacking context. You say this as if we just played against mediocre teams.
These past three games were against the other three best teams in the Big East, two of which are not only our two WORST match-ups in the league, but also teams led by (arguably) the two best coaches currently active. And the third game was against one of the strongest home-court advantages in our league, if not country.
The odds of us losing 3 in a row were high, whether you like it or not.
Quote from: K1 Lover on February 08, 2025, 06:53:50 PMThis is horribly reductive and lacking context. You say this as if we just played against mediocre teams.
These past three games were against the other three best teams in the Big East, two of which are not only our two WORST match-ups in the league, but also teams led by (arguably) the two best coaches currently active. And the third game was against one of the strongest home-court advantages in our league, if not country.
The odds of us losing 3 in a row were high, whether you like it or not.
I pointed out that his remarks needed to be taken in context of the 3 teams we were playing, as well as other points in a fairly long reply. He never responded. I hope you have better luck with the same challenge regarding context.
He included a real gem by saying that it's the only the regular season "so who cares" followed with some nonsense about going 6 straight in the NCAA tourney.
I'll finish by saying I honestly admire his fandom. But a touch of reality would be nice.
Quote from: K1 Lover on February 08, 2025, 06:53:50 PMThe odds of us losing 3 in a row were high, whether you like it or not.
Nah.
MU was a 6.5-point home favorite against a UConn team without arguably its best player. Their implied win probabilty was 73%.
Losing the road games definitely not a unexpected. Acting like we shouldn't be surprised by the UConn loss is revisionist history.
Quote from: Pakuni on February 08, 2025, 07:27:56 PMNah.
MU was a 6.5-point home favorite against a UConn team without arguably its best player. Their implied win probabilty was 73%.
Losing the road games definitely not a unexpected. Acting like we shouldn't be surprised by the UConn loss is revisionist history.
Revisionist history? Lol. That might apply if what I said had to do with UConn's previous wins against us. But it doesn't.
Like I said, UConn is a bad match-up for us. This is a
current fact, not a historical one. The projected point spreads are based on home-court advantages as well as each team's metrics — which are just raw data up to that point. The point spread tells you how a team with X offense/defense should do against a team with Y offense/defense in Z location. And while that usually serves true in balanced match-ups, it's far less likely to in cases where both teams have very opposite play-styles.
Teams like Xavier proved that we struggle to guard against quick, athletic guards like UConn has. UConn's best shooters are taller than our best defenders. And their length/physicality makes them exceptional at rebounding, perhaps even more so than St. John's. All of these strengths play into our weaknesses.
Acting like point spreads are the only thing that matters in the end is simply blissful ignorance.
This was probably the 6th most important game this year, not even ready to comment about Shaka's tenure.
1) NMD (L)
2) St John's @ fiserv (?)
3) Creighton @ fiserv (W)
4) @ UConn (?)
5) @ St. John's (L)
6) @ Creighton (L)
Quote from: rocky_warrior on February 08, 2025, 08:18:46 PMThis was probably the 6th most important game this year, not even ready to comment about Shaka's tenure.
1) NMD (L)
2) St John's @ fiserv (?)
3) Creighton @ fiserv (W)
4) @ UConn (?)
5) @ St. John's (L)
6) @ Creighton (L)
I think a handful of Scoopers would argue that @ Dayton should be 1 on this list.
Quote from: K1 Lover on February 08, 2025, 08:29:34 PMI think a handful of Scoopers would argue that @ Dayton should be 1 on this list.
I think keeping the discussion confined to only BE games is better, but I get what you are saying.
Another point about this thread- if these 3 games that we lost were spaced out with wins between them, would there be the same concern by some here? I doubt it. To be clear, I am not blowing off the losses. I hate them. But being 3 in a row has given them a heightened profile.
Every game vs. Madison is Marquette's Super Bowl.
Duh.
Quote from: K1 Lover on February 08, 2025, 07:58:22 PMRevisionist history? Lol. That might apply if what I said had to do with UConn's previous wins against us. But it doesn't.
Like I said, UConn is a bad match-up for us. This is a current fact, not a historical one. The projected point spreads are based on home-court advantages as well as each team's metrics — which are just raw data up to that point. The point spread tells you how a team with X offense/defense should do against a team with Y offense/defense in Z location. And while that usually serves true in balanced match-ups, it's far less likely to in cases where both teams have very opposite play-styles.
Teams like Xavier proved that we struggle to guard against quick, athletic guards like UConn has. UConn's best shooters are taller than our best defenders. And their length/physicality makes them exceptional at rebounding, perhaps even more so than St. John's. All of these strengths play into our weaknesses.
Acting like point spreads are the only thing that matters in the end is simply blissful ignorance.
Odds of winning 1 of 3 were about 90% - you can hate math, but that's what it says.
Quote from: K1 Lover on February 08, 2025, 07:58:22 PMRevisionist history? Lol. That might apply if what I said had to do with UConn's previous wins against us. But it doesn't.
Like I said, UConn is a bad match-up for us. This is a current fact, not a historical one. The projected point spreads are based on home-court advantages as well as each team's metrics — which are just raw data up to that point. The point spread tells you how a team with X offense/defense should do against a team with Y offense/defense in Z location. And while that usually serves true in balanced match-ups, it's far less likely to in cases where both teams have very opposite play-styles.
Teams like Xavier proved that we struggle to guard against quick, athletic guards like UConn has. UConn's best shooters are taller than our best defenders. And their length/physicality makes them exceptional at rebounding, perhaps even more so than St. John's. All of these strengths play into our weaknesses.
Acting like point spreads are the only thing that matters in the end is simply blissful ignorance.
So much wrong here.
1. No, Marquette did not struggle to guard UConn's backcourt. In fact, MU's guards terrorized them, forcing Ball, Diarra and Mahaney into 9 turnovers (they average a combined 4 per game). MU's problem was when they didn't turn them over, UConn took advantage of all the good looks they were getting. Because, as we saw again yesterday, if MU isn't turning you over, you're probably getting a good look.
2. No, MU and UConn do not have "very opposite" play styles. MU averages 70.4 possession per game, UConn 68.2. MU takes 46% of its shots from three, UConn 44%. Both are bad at getting to the free-throw line. Both are good at limiting turnovers (last Saturday a big exception for UConn).
And UConn isn't significantly bigger/longer than Marquette. Their starting lineup goes 6'2", 6'3", 6'7", 6'8", 6'10" MU's goes 6'2", 6'5", 6'5", 6'8", 6'10". MU is +2 inches at one position, they're +2 at another, otherwise it's even across the board.
They aren't mirror images, but they're more alike than different.
3. No, UConn is not "exceptional" at rebounding. They rank 8th in the Big East with 34.9 rpg (MU is at 33.3) and 45th in the nation in rebounding margin. Oh, and UConn's leading rebounder (Reed) played only 13 minutes and their second-leading rebounder (McNeely)
didn't play at all. MU lost the rebounding battle not because UConn was too big/long, but because they let a 6'3" guard, who averages 3.4 rpg, grab 11 boards.
4. You don't like betting odds? Fine. KenPom gave Marquette a 77% chance of winning and projected MU as an 8-point favorite.
Any way you slice it, Marquette was widely expected to win that game. The only blissful ignorance here is you trying to shine that turd of a performance.
Quote from: K1 Lover on February 08, 2025, 06:53:50 PMThe odds of us losing 3 in a row were high, whether you like it or not.
Just looked at the preseason projections. Per kenpom, the odds of losing all three was 7.7%. Our win probability for the three was 1.61, so more likely to win 2 than 1.
Quote from: brewcity77 on February 09, 2025, 08:55:10 AMJust looked at the preseason projections. Per kenpom, the odds of losing all three was 7.7%. Our win probability for the three was 1.61, so more likely to win 2 than 1.
In the new America, we don't use facts or stats, pal. Take your nerd stuff to Europe
Quote from: Pakuni on February 09, 2025, 08:23:05 AMSo much wrong here.
1. No, Marquette did not struggle to guard UConn's backcourt. In fact, MU's guards terrorized them, forcing Ball, Diarra and Mahaney into 9 turnovers (they average a combined 4 per game). MU's problem was when they didn't turn them over, UConn took advantage of all the good looks they were getting. Because, as we saw again yesterday, if MU isn't turning you over, you're probably getting a good look.
2. No, MU and UConn do not have "very opposite" play styles. MU averages 70.4 possession per game, UConn 68.2. MU takes 46% of its shots from three, UConn 44%. Both are bad at getting to the free-throw line. Both are good at limiting turnovers (last Saturday a big exception for UConn).
And UConn isn't significantly bigger/longer than Marquette. Their starting lineup goes 6'2", 6'3", 6'7", 6'8", 6'10" MU's goes 6'2", 6'5", 6'5", 6'8", 6'10". MU is +2 inches at one position, they're +2 at another, otherwise it's even across the board.
They aren't mirror images, but they're more alike than different.
3. No, UConn is not "exceptional" at rebounding. They rank 8th in the Big East with 34.9 rpg (MU is at 33.3) and 45th in the nation in rebounding margin. Oh, and UConn's leading rebounder (Reed) played only 13 minutes and their second-leading rebounder (McNeely) didn't play at all. MU lost the rebounding battle not because UConn was too big/long, but because they let a 6'3" guard, who averages 3.4 rpg, grab 11 boards.
4. You don't like betting odds? Fine. KenPom gave Marquette a 77% chance of winning and projected MU as an 8-point favorite.
Any way you slice it, Marquette was widely expected to win that game. The only blissful ignorance here is you trying to shine that turd of a performance.
Excellent post.
It was a very strange game in a lot of ways, and UConns rising star shot the lights out, but Marquette lost because it got its rear end handed to it on the glass.
Quote from: Pakuni on February 09, 2025, 08:23:05 AMSo much wrong here.
1. No, Marquette did not struggle to guard UConn's backcourt. In fact, MU's guards terrorized them, forcing Ball, Diarra and Mahaney into 9 turnovers (they average a combined 4 per game). MU's problem was when they didn't turn them over, UConn took advantage of all the good looks they were getting. Because, as we saw again yesterday, if MU isn't turning you over, you're probably getting a good look.
2. No, MU and UConn do not have "very opposite" play styles. MU averages 70.4 possession per game, UConn 68.2. MU takes 46% of its shots from three, UConn 44%. Both are bad at getting to the free-throw line. Both are good at limiting turnovers (last Saturday a big exception for UConn).
And UConn isn't significantly bigger/longer than Marquette. Their starting lineup goes 6'2", 6'3", 6'7", 6'8", 6'10" MU's goes 6'2", 6'5", 6'5", 6'8", 6'10". MU is +2 inches at one position, they're +2 at another, otherwise it's even across the board.
They aren't mirror images, but they're more alike than different.
3. No, UConn is not "exceptional" at rebounding. They rank 8th in the Big East with 34.9 rpg (MU is at 33.3) and 45th in the nation in rebounding margin. Oh, and UConn's leading rebounder (Reed) played only 13 minutes and their second-leading rebounder (McNeely) didn't play at all. MU lost the rebounding battle not because UConn was too big/long, but because they let a 6'3" guard, who averages 3.4 rpg, grab 11 boards.
4. You don't like betting odds? Fine. KenPom gave Marquette a 77% chance of winning and projected MU as an 8-point favorite.
Any way you slice it, Marquette was widely expected to win that game. The only blissful ignorance here is you trying to shine that turd of a performance.
This is a solid write-up and I appreciate you thoroughly explaining every reason I'm wrong. I admit I spoke with more conviction than warranted since I hit 'post' without actually fact-checking myself.
I'd rather have the right information than be right at all, so thank you for correcting me. Unfortunately, this just means I have to find a new way to cope with the loss at home.
Quote from: 1SE on February 08, 2025, 03:49:15 PMWe were the best team in the BE in rankings and metrics going in. We should have won at least one of them. We didn't, fine, it's where we are now. But that puts a lot more pressure on a strong close to the season. Wojo won lots on December and January too.
We just ignoring that Shaka has won in February and March every year here?
Don't bring perspective.
Both because I was curious and to prove a point.
Shaka was 27-13 after January in three years here before last week.
Quote from: 1SE on February 08, 2025, 03:49:15 PMWe were the best team in the BE in rankings and metrics going in. We should have won at least one of them. We didn't, fine, it's where we are now. But that puts a lot more pressure on a strong close to the season. Wojo won lots on December and January too.
lol.....comparing Wojo to Shaka is not helping you look like an intelligent observer.
I don't expect any season to go by without peeks and valleys..........it's been a tough stretch.. ..I agree we should have found a way to win one.......we were in position in the last 2 where it was anybody's game with 4 minutes to go.
Based on the limitations of our current roster I think it's likely we were playing a bit over our heads when we were ranked in the top 5-10. predictive metrics never really matched those ap rankings.
Going to the NCAA tournament for 4 years in a row under Shaka without being on the bubble once is worth appreciating........lots of schools can't say that......including some blue bloods.
Losing sucks.......nobody said otherwise......I try to keep it in perspective..........
Quote from: BM1090 on February 09, 2025, 06:32:26 PMBoth because I was curious and to prove a point.
Shaka was 27-13 after January in three years here before last week.
Oh you with your facts and reasonable perspective. This is Scoop, sir!! Please refrain from that nonsense and make emotional rants based only on your feelings right after losses!
Three In A Row! Shaka must go!!!
Quote from: MuMark on February 10, 2025, 12:20:34 PMlol.....comparing Wojo to Shaka is not helping you look like an intelligent observer.
I don't expect any season to go by without peeks and valleys..........it's been a tough stretch.. ..I agree we should have found a way to win one.......we were in position in the last 2 where it was anybody's game with 4 minutes to go.
Based on the limitations of our current roster I think it's likely we were playing a bit over our heads when we were ranked in the top 5-10. predictive metrics never really matched those ap rankings.
Going to the NCAA tournament for 4 years in a row under Shaka without being on the bubble once is worth appreciating........lots of schools can't say that......including some blue bloods.
Losing sucks.......nobody said otherwise......I try to keep it in perspective..........
100%. I appreciate what Shaka is building. This is all part of the process of getting us to the promised land. May not be this year or next but Shaka has a long leash to get this done, especially given the success he's had so far. Patience is key. Enjoy this team, warts and all. It's still better than all but 10-20 or so teams in the country. Pretty damn good!
Quote from: K1 Lover on February 08, 2025, 07:58:22 PMRevisionist history? Lol. That might apply if what I said had to do with UConn's previous wins against us. But it doesn't.
Like I said, UConn is a bad match-up for us. This is a current fact, not a historical one. The projected point spreads are based on home-court advantages as well as each team's metrics — which are just raw data up to that point. The point spread tells you how a team with X offense/defense should do against a team with Y offense/defense in Z location. And while that usually serves true in balanced match-ups, it's far less likely to in cases where both teams have very opposite play-styles.
Teams like Xavier proved that we struggle to guard against quick, athletic guards like UConn has. UConn's best shooters are taller than our best defenders. And their length/physicality makes them exceptional at rebounding, perhaps even more so than St. John's. All of these strengths play into our weaknesses.
Acting like point spreads are the only thing that matters in the end is simply blissful ignorance.
That match up wasn't the problem. Missing free throws and wide open looks is.
Quote from: MU82 on February 10, 2025, 12:44:01 PMThree In A Row! Shaka must go!!!
Nobody reasonable (i.e. not willie) is suggesting anything like this.
It's possible to both love the fact that Shaka is MU's coach and point out/discuss some of his and his team's shortcomings.
Quote from: BM1090 on February 09, 2025, 06:32:26 PMBoth because I was curious and to prove a point.
Shaka was 27-13 after January in three years here before last week.
For comparison's sake, and because I was curious ...
Shaka through January vs power conference opponents: 48-18, .727 win pct.
Shaka after January: 27-16, .628 win pct.
I get 75 and 34 total. So, pretty damn good.
Quote from: Shooter McGavin on February 11, 2025, 10:46:38 AM100%. I appreciate what Shaka is building. This is all part of the process of getting us to the promised land. May not be this year or next but Shaka has a long leash to get this done, especially given the success he's had so far. Patience is key. Enjoy this team, warts and all. It's still better than all but 10-20 or so teams in the country. Pretty damn good!
Trust the process
Quote from: Newsdreams on February 11, 2025, 12:30:42 PMTrust Respect the process
FIFY. Nobody wants to be the 76ers.
Quote from: Shooter McGavin on February 11, 2025, 10:46:38 AM100%. I appreciate what Shaka is building. This is all part of the process of getting us to the promised land. May not be this year or next but Shaka has a long leash to get this done, especially given the success he's had so far. Patience is key. Enjoy this team, warts and all. It's still better than all but 10-20 or so teams in the country. Pretty damn good!
Certainly beats the Wojo years.
Quote from: Pakuni on February 09, 2025, 08:23:05 AMSo much wrong here.
MU averages 70.4 possession per game, UConn 68.2.
Both are good at limiting turnovers (last Saturday a big exception for UConn).
3. No, UConn is not "exceptional" at rebounding. They rank 8th in the Big East with 34.9 rpg (MU is at 33.3) and 45th in the nation in rebounding margin. Oh, and UConn's leading rebounder (Reed) played only 13 minutes and their second-leading rebounder (McNeely) didn't play at all. MU lost the rebounding battle not because UConn was too big/long, but because they let a 6'3" guard, who averages 3.4 rpg, grab 11 boards.
#FakeNews #Lies
Your possessions per game data is EFF'd and wrong. UCONN's avg possessions are way lower than MU -- and MU's offense is nothing like UCONN's in terms of average possession length. Nearly polar opposites.
Both are not the same at limiting turnovers. MU has been absolutely elite. Turnover rate is #2 in the nation; we're #1 in BEast play. UCONN is mediocre at best. SUS, really - #154 nationally; #7 in BEast play.
Rebounding... you bringing out 'rebounding margin' tells the story. Sheesh. If we look at reality, MU has been mediocre on the boards, weak on d (pawz). UCONN solid on both sides - not elite, but there's no comparison when looking at MU.
Please acknowledge the LIES!
Quote from: Jay Bee on February 11, 2025, 04:50:08 PM#FakeNews #Lies
Your possessions per game data is EFF'd and wrong. UCONN's avg possessions are way lower than MU -- and MU's offense is nothing like UCONN's in terms of average possession length. Nearly polar opposites.
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/stat/possessions-per-game
Please acknowledge your LIES!
QuoteBoth are not the same at limiting turnovers. MU has been absolutely elite. Turnover rate is #2 in the nation; we're #1 in BEast play. UCONN is mediocre at best. SUS, really - #154 nationally; #7 in BEast play.
I didn't say "the same" but you're right, UConn is more average than I thought.
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/stat/turnovers-per-possession
QuoteRebounding... you bringing out 'rebounding margin' tells the story. Sheesh. If we look at reality, MU has been mediocre on the boards, weak on d (pawz). UCONN solid on both sides - not elite, but there's no comparison when looking at MU.
I didn't say anything about MU's rebounding or defense. I contradicted the claim that UConn is an "exceptional" rebounding team, especially a UConn team for which its top two rebounders played a combined 13 minutes.
Please acknowledge your LIES!
Defense?
UConn is holding opponents to a 48.3% eFG, good for 78th in the nation. Solid is a subjective term, but that places them in the lower half of the Big East.
Please acknowledge "solid" is A GENEROUS ASSESSMENT!
lil bro out here posting links to teamrankings.com? lol
"They rank 8th in the Big East with 34.9 rpg (MU is at 33.3) and 45th in the nation in rebounding margin." looks like you're trying to compare their rebounding with MU and most certainly did say something about MU's rebounding... bizarro world. rpg, smh.
Your numbers are trash and conclusions are wrong. REPENT.
Quote from: Jay Bee on February 11, 2025, 05:11:37 PMlil bro out here posting links to teamrankings.com? lol
"They rank 8th in the Big East with 34.9 rpg (MU is at 33.3) and 45th in the nation in rebounding margin." looks like you're trying to compare their rebounding with MU and most certainly did say something about MU's rebounding... bizarro world. rpg, smh.
Your numbers are trash and conclusions are wrong. REPENT.
Not gonna lie, when Pakuni responded to my post, I simply assumed everything he said was right since I hadn't done my due diligence. But now that this has been brought up again, I'm looking at his response closer and realizing that my eye test wasn't entirely unfounded after all - at least when it comes to rebounding.
To use TeamRankings like he did, UConn's total rebounding % is 28th in the country, right behind St John's which ranks 27th. That puts both teams at the top of the league in that category. But in addition, UConn is 1st in the BE when it comes to limiting opponents' offensive boards, and 2nd in limiting defensive boards. If you look at total rebounds per game by opponents, UConn is #6 in the country.
Love the accountability. Great job, Jay Bee.
Quote from: Pakuni on February 11, 2025, 11:28:49 AMNobody reasonable (i.e. not willie) is suggesting anything like this.
It's possible to both love the fact that Shaka is MU's coach and point out/discuss some of his and his team's shortcomings.
I was using hyperbole, as you sometimes do. Have a good one. We Are Marquette!
(I know ... we aren't actually Marquette, we are just Marquette alums and/or fans. Hyperbole again!)
Quote from: Jay Bee on February 11, 2025, 05:11:37 PMlil bro out here posting links to teamrankings.com? lol
Ad hominem from a Marquette guy.
SHAME!