I posted this at the end of the Georgetown synopsis, but some people don't go through old threads and I think it is worthy of notice.
Joplin is shooting 88.9% from the line.
The other 4 starters are shooting between 75 and 80% from the line.
The team is shooting 76% from the line.
The only thing that would make it better is getting there more often.
What's that saying around here about free throw percentage? The argument would be MU would have won anyway if they went 5 for 12 at the end of the GT game rather than 12/12.
But I'm of the opinion, like you, its nice to make them at a high percentage when they do shoot them. Of course it would be great to win the rate portion of the free throw battle. But making free throws at simply a higher percentage seems at least somewhat important in the metrics world now based on how it is better to beat teams by more points (cover the spread). It helps with seeding in the tournament (couple more wins over a season, better efficiency metrics, albeit a small portion of efficiency). As with every argument there is some nuance to it.
JB's point (I think)is that team free throw shooting percentage is not as statistically relevant as some think. 70% vs 76% is irrelevant from a ppp (both elite) and efg% standpoint. It is more important that a team gets to the line 30 times than it is whether they hit 21 (meh) or 24 (elite) of those 30 attempts in a given game.
Nobody argues that hitting/missing late game free throes doesn't make a difference.
My reason for posting this is because it sticks a knife into the 'make your free throws/MU sucks from the line' trope.
I agree with both you and Jay Bee. But I'm glad they are hitting at a higher percentage nonetheless. As minuscule of an advantage as it is I'll take it.
As high as I am on this team their margin for error is small. Especially to get to where I think they can go.
And sorry for possibly steering the thread in the wrong direction.
Ask Karaban this morning if free throws matter.
I am glad that MU is shooting well at the line. And nobody argues that late game free throws no matta.
Team ft% in a game is a poor predictor of outcome.
Team A shoots 90% from the line.
Team B shoots 70% from the line.
Who won the game?
Team A shot 9-10 from the line
Team B shot 28-40 from the line.
Who probably won the game?
JB put it in a silly shorthand that actually obscures his actual point.
Quote from: tower912 on January 09, 2025, 07:12:30 AMI am glad that MU is shooting well at the line. And nobody argues that late game free throws no Matra. Team ft% in a game is a poor predictor of outcome.
Team A shoots 90% from the line.
Team B shoots 70% from the line.
Who won the game?
Team A shot 9-10 from the line
Team B shot 28-40 from the line.
Who probably won the game?
JB put it in a silly shorthand that actually obscures his actual point.
I can tell you who didn't win and that was the viewing public
Quote from: tower912 on January 09, 2025, 07:12:30 AMI am glad that MU is shooting well at the line. And nobody argues that late game free throws no Matra. Team ft% in a game is a poor predictor of outcome.
Team A shoots 90% from the line.
Team B shoots 70% from the line.
Who won the game?
Team A shot 9-10 from the line
Team B shot 28-40 from the line.
Who probably won the game?
JB put it in a silly shorthand that actually obscures his actual point.
100% get it and with you on the overall point. Just glad MU is on the right side of the percentage portion as well this year.
Quote from: Uncle Rico on January 09, 2025, 07:16:50 AMI can tell you who didn't win and that was the viewing public
Ha! That would have been a boring game to watch.
Quote from: Uncle Rico on January 09, 2025, 07:16:50 AMI can tell you who didn't win and that was the viewing public
Frickin' Providence game.
tower hit on one of the many points...
Again... referencing Karaban choking is completely irrelevant here. Not the topic.
It's simply that team ft% isn't relevant to who wins & loses a bball game.
If all I know about a game is that team a shot 80% from the line and team b shot 70%... what do I know about the game? Jack sh1t. I don't even know whose offense had the advantage from the line. Remember, a "bad" ft% of 60% represents ELITE offense.
Quote from: tower912 on January 09, 2025, 07:12:30 AMI am glad that MU is shooting well at the line. And nobody argues that late game free throws no Matra. Team ft% in a game is a poor predictor of outcome.
Team A shoots 90% from the line.
Team B shoots 70% from the line.
Who won the game?
Team A shot 9-10 from the line
Team B shot 28-40 from the line.
Who probably won the game?
JB put it in a silly shorthand that actually obscures his actual point.
Those numbers tell us 2 things. 1) team A is a terrible defensive team, and 2) team B is an aggressive offense who gets into the paint at will.
The difference between 'we suck' and 'we rock' in an individual game is one more make/miss every 12 free throws. 8-12 vs 9-12. This is statistically irrelevant from a ppp perspective.
My original point stands. MU makes free throws at an acceptably high percentage.
Quote from: tower912 on January 09, 2025, 07:22:44 AMFrickin' Providence game.
13-19 FT (.684) to 35-49 FT (.714).
Quote from: Uncle Rico on January 09, 2025, 07:16:50 AMI can tell you who didn't win and that was the viewing public
68 free throw attempts. Madness.
Quote from: Jay Bee on January 09, 2025, 07:24:38 AMteam ft% isn't relevant to who wins & loses a bball game.
If this were repeated ad nauseum instead of the hashtag, we wouldn't have to have this conversation multiple times a season.
Quote from: Uncle Rico on January 09, 2025, 07:16:50 AMI can tell you who didn't win and that was the viewing public
Ha. Most NBA games?
Situational FTs matter. MU went 12-12 at the end of the GU game. Each pair made slowly closed off Georgetown's options and thus making it easier to defend. Always keep the pressure on the opponent. Always deny options.
Free throws do matter. They do make an impact in a game, but free throw stats don't tell you the whole story and can't predict an outcome. It would be like saying turnovers don't matter. Rebounding doesn't matter. Field goal percentage doesn't matter. They all impact the game. Missing free throws when you have them, impacts the game. I don't get this free throw argument and probably never will.
Regarding the free throw percentages. Hard to believe that Jop's percentage is so great, and the other starters are so solid. I still don't completely trust anyone other than Stevie on making free throws at the end of games in a pressure situation. I think Jop's 3 missed free throws in the NC State has forever impacted my lack of trust in him making clutch free throws.
Quote from: Big Papi on January 09, 2025, 09:29:50 AMFree throws do matter. They do make an impact in a game, but free throw stats don't tell you the whole story and can't predict an outcome. It would be like saying turnovers don't matter. Rebounding doesn't matter. Field goal percentage doesn't matter. They all impact the game. Missing free throws when you have them, impacts the game. I don't get this free throw argument and probably never will.
Regarding the free throw percentages. Hard to believe that Jop's percentage is so great, and the other starters are so solid. I still don't completely trust anyone other than Stevie on making free throws at the end of games in a pressure situation. I think Jop's 3 missed free throws in the NC State has forever impacted my lack of trust in him making clutch free throws.
A better way to look at it is:
Team A
Best shooting team in the country (both 2 point and 3 point shooting)
Average Rebounding Team (both offensive and defensive)
Average defensive team from a shooting standpoint
Average turnover team
Average in terms of getting to the line (not FT%, but free throw attempts)
Worst Free Throw % team in the country
Team B
Best Free Throw % team in the country
Average Shooting Team
Average Rebounding Team (both offensive and defensive)
Average defensive team from a shooting standpoint
Average turnover team
Average in terms of getting to the line (not FT%, but free throw attempts)
Team A is better than Team B. Period. And it most cases above if you make Team A the best at some area other than FT% it will be better than Team B.
With the caveat that it is only one game....look at the fouls and FTs from the Nova/UCONN game last night. Fouls: N 9, UC 16. FT's: N 12/13, UC 2/4. While fans of teams that got called for a disproportionate number of fouls blame the refs for "giving the game to...", the style of play and the defensive aggressiveness of a team often has a large impact on the FT opportunities of their opponents.
As to the end-of-the-game FTs, it's too easy to give credit to or blame the FT shooter when missed FTs earlier in the game count for just as much as the end of the game ones. However, last night's game was exceptional due to UCONN making the first 2 FT's earlier in the game and their last opportunity was with Karaban at the line.
Quote from: Big Papi on January 09, 2025, 09:29:50 AMIt would be like saying turnovers don't matter. Rebounding doesn't matter. Field goal percentage doesn't matter. They all impact the game. Missing free throws when you have them, impacts the game. I don't get this free throw argument and probably never will.
Agreed that you probably never will get it, but you're absolutely wrong. I would never say turnovers don't matter, but the facts are team FT% has no meaningful relevance to winning bball games and further, field goal % is irrelevant.
The math and logic is simple, guys. Smh
Only final score matta.
The other aspect of FT shooting that separates from the end of the game to the rest of the game is the opponent's intent.
Fouls are generally avoided during the game, but are often planned and intentional at the end. The opponent is putting you on the line deliberately and for a reason, best to capitalize and make them.
In that respect, end of game FT are more important because it closes the opponents options. Missing them leaves them open.
But..but...if 4 made FT in the first half were made then the margin at the end of the game .... Blah blah blah.
Well, so would have all the other missed opportunities in all the other factors.
End of game is where grit and guts ( making high-pressure FTs) can beat stats...if it didn't then why play the game.
Quote from: Jay Bee on January 09, 2025, 11:20:37 AMAgreed that you probably never will get it, but you're absolutely wrong. I would never say turnovers don't matter, but the facts are team FT% has no meaningful relevance to winning bball games and further, field goal % is irrelevant.
Example: Butler game this year when Marquette got off 28 more shots than Butler because they had 12 fewer turnovers and 16 more offensive rebounds. Butler won FG% though 51% to 42%.
Apologize if someone did this recently but here is the rankings of FT% in the country of the NCAA champs since 2012
84th
35th
170th
188th
52nd
10th (Nova)
172nd
2nd (Nova)
153rd
4th (UConn)
121st
65th
Quote from: tower912 on January 09, 2025, 06:07:58 AMI posted this at the end of the Georgetown synopsis, but some people don't go through old threads and I think it is worthy of notice.
Joplin is shooting 88.9% from the line.
The other 4 starters are shooting between 75 and 80% from the line.
The team is shooting 76% from the line.
The only thing that would make it better is getting there more often.
My eye test might be wrong, but Jop seems to miss the few fts he does miss early in the game.
He has missed 5 so far this season.
Quote from: Scoop Snoop on January 09, 2025, 11:32:42 AMOnly final score matta.
Except when Wojo is coaching, then wins no matta. :o
Quote from: WhiteTrash on January 09, 2025, 01:21:18 PMExcept when Wojo is coaching, then wins no matta. :o
Wojo no matta.
It is actually easy, like Buzz said fts, want to score more than other team attempts. Is the only meaningful ft stat.
Then I have no idea why MU has spent more time shooting free throws in practice this year then any other and practice doesn't end until the team shoots at least 80% as a team.
But I guess free throws don't matter.
Quote from: Big Papi on January 09, 2025, 08:23:00 PMThen I have no idea why MU has spent more time shooting free throws in practice this year then any other and practice doesn't end until the team shoots at least 80% as a team.
But I guess free throws don't matter.
So you still don't get it.
Quote from: MarquetteDano on January 09, 2025, 12:47:16 PMApologize if someone did this recently but here is the rankings of FT% in the country of the NCAA champs since 2012
84th
35th
170th
188th
52nd
10th (Nova)
172nd
2nd (Nova)
153rd
4th (UConn)
121st
65th
Looks like they do matter. Better finish in the top 200. We are sitting at #55
#1 Wisconsin at 85.5%
#365 Citadel at 57.1%
Quote from: Newsdreams on January 09, 2025, 03:04:45 PMIt is actually easy, like Buzz said fts, want to score more than other team attempts. Is the only meaningful ft stat.
Thanks for saying this. I was thinking this same thing. Buzz had some good ideas. They approached a thing with depth. FT% is a factor in his calculus but not the focus. it was also about how do you get FTs, aggressiveness, paint touches. Disciplined defense, etc. it all goes into "more made than they take"
Quote from: lostpassword on January 09, 2025, 09:44:00 PMLooks like they do matter. Better finish in the top 200. We are sitting at #55
#1 Wisconsin at 85.5%
#365 Citadel at 57.1%
To illustrate the point.
#182 (Median team) Pepperdine 72.0%
If Wisconsin shot the same average as Pepperdine, they would have scored 43 less points this season. That sounds like a lot but on a per game basis is less than 3 points a game. All their wins are by 3 or more. They are number 1 by three whole percentage points over #2. So going from absolute best in the land by far to average would not change their overall record. Do the same excercise with 2P%, 3P%, or EFG% and you'll get a much more impactful result.
Situationally, individual FTs are very important. On a macro level, they are statistically insignificant.
But Jay Bee loves razzing others for semantics. He deserves some crap for coming up with a misleading slogan
Quote from: TAMU, Knower of Ball on January 10, 2025, 12:10:39 AMTo illustrate the point.
#182 (Median team) Pepperdine 72.0%
If Wisconsin shot the same average as Pepperdine, they would have scored 43 less points this season. That sounds like a lot but on a per game basis is less than 3 points a game. All their wins are by 3 or more. They are number 1 by three whole percentage points over #2. So going from absolute best in the land by far to average would not change their overall record. Do the same excercise with 2P%, 3P%, or EFG% and you'll get a much more impactful result.
Situationally, individual FTs are very important. On a macro level, they are statistically insignificant.
But Jay Bee loves razzing others for semantics. He deserves some crap for coming up with a misleading slogan
Frankly I think he deserves more crap for drinking Truly
Quote from: Newsdreams on January 10, 2025, 08:07:26 AMFrankly I think he deserves more crap for drinking Truly
I deserve crap for a lot of things, but NOT a nicely chilled Wild Berry Truly. It's Friday night, may need to drink one in your honor tonight
Quote from: Jay Bee on January 10, 2025, 08:48:01 AMI deserve crap for a lot of things, but NOT a nicely chilled Wild Berry Truly. It's Friday night, may need to drink one in your honor tonight
I gotta share this joke. You may have heard this before, but; Guy gets pulled over by a cop. Cop: Sir, have you been drinking?
Guy: I had a couple of Trulys.
Cop: I didn't ask if you were a p*ssy, I asked if you were drinking.
Quote from: Jay Bee on January 10, 2025, 08:48:01 AMI deserve crap for a lot of things, but NOT a nicely chilled Wild Berry Truly. It's Friday night, may need to drink one in your honor tonight
I still buy you one next game
Quote from: Jay Bee on January 09, 2025, 11:20:37 AMAgreed that you probably never will get it, but you're absolutely wrong. I would never say turnovers don't matter, but the facts are team FT% has no meaningful relevance to winning bball games and further, field goal % is irrelevant.
The math and logic is simple, guys. Smh
The problem you run into is that this simply isn't true. If all other things are equal, number of FGA, eFG%, rebounds, turnovers, trips to the line, etc, everything is equal except one FT made in a 1-point game, then FT% can be the only thing that matters.
Teams have lost all four factors and won that game. It's incredibly rare, but it does happen. And when you spend a lot of time nitpicking people who make slightly incorrect statements with technicalities, rarely explaining why or what the technicality is, it's only natural that people will take umbridge with a definitive statement like #FTsNoMatta when it's only a generally but not universally true statement.
Quote from: brewcity77 on January 11, 2025, 08:09:21 AMThe problem you run into is that this simply isn't true.
Teams have lost all four factors and won that game. It's incredibly rare, but it does happen.
What "simply isn't true"?
How rare is it to win while losing all four factors? What fractional % of games are we talking about here?
Not every aspect of a team can be captured by metrics.
Some metrics are revealing, while others are chasing.
We have a well-rounded MU education to discern between the two
Quote from: Jay Bee on January 11, 2025, 10:11:44 AMWhat "simply isn't true"?
How rare is it to win while losing all four factors? What fractional % of games are we talking about here?
It's miniscule. But when you say something definitively that isn't definitively true, you paint yourself into a corner.
As ItsDJOver noted something like this is more effective:
Quote from: Jay Bee on January 09, 2025, 07:24:38 AMIt's simply that team ft% isn't relevant to who wins & loses a bball game.
With the caveat that it's rarely relevant.
But if two teams both take 60 shots, have the same eFG%, and one has a higher FT% on the same number of FTA, that team will win and FT% will be the differentiating factor. It doesn't happen often, but it does happen.
Quote from: brewcity77 on January 11, 2025, 11:59:06 AMBut if two teams both take 60 shots, have the same eFG%, and one has a higher FT% on the same number of FTA, that team will win and FT% will be the differentiating factor. It doesn't happen often, but it does happen.
How often did it happen in all of last year?
Quote from: Jay Bee on January 11, 2025, 12:35:42 PMHow often did it happen in all of last year?
14 times
Sarcasm
Quote from: Jay Bee on January 11, 2025, 12:35:42 PMHow often did it happen in all of last year?
Doesn't matter. Once or one thousand times, just that it can happen means you cannot definitively say #FTsNoMatta, even if you're are referring to percentage. Because there are times it can and does.
Quote from: brewcity77 on January 11, 2025, 05:44:09 PMDoesn't matter. Once or one thousand times, just that it can happen means you cannot definitively say #FTsNoMatta, even if you're are referring to percentage. Because there are times it can and does.
Did it happen once in all of last year?
Quote from: Jay Bee on January 11, 2025, 06:01:53 PMDid it happen once in all of last year?
14 times.
1 in November, 4 in December, SEVEN in January, twice in feb
0 in March. Ftsnomatta in March.
Quote from: Jay Bee on January 11, 2025, 06:01:53 PMDid it happen once in all of last year?
It's irrelevant. That it can happen and that teams can lose all four factors and win the game disproves your regular assertion.
That it can matter means it does matter.
Quote from: brewcity77 on January 11, 2025, 06:09:13 PMIt's irrelevant. That it can happen and that teams can lose all four factors and win the game disproves your regular assertion.
That it can matter means it does matter.
lol wat. You've misread or misunderstood my stating if fact.
Anything is possible; therefore nothing anyone says is correct... in brewcity77-land
Quote from: PGsHeroes32 on January 11, 2025, 06:04:24 PM14 times.
1 in November, 4 in December, SEVEN in January, twice in feb
0 in March. Ftsnomatta in March.
Can you point me to these examples?
I'm just going to go practice fts
Quote from: Jay Bee on January 11, 2025, 07:05:03 PMCan you point me to these examples?
After all the stalking permaban drama on here
I'd prefer to not send a pic of me pointing anywhere
Quote from: PGsHeroes32 on January 11, 2025, 07:52:01 PMAfter all the stalking permaban drama on here
I'd prefer to not send a pic of me pointing anywhere
Who got permabanned and how come?
Must've missed it
Quote from: DoctorV on January 11, 2025, 07:59:05 PMWho got permabanned and how come?
Must've missed it
Meateaters for doxxing again.
Quote from: Jay Bee on January 11, 2025, 07:04:26 PMlol wat. You've misread or misunderstood my stating if fact.
Anything is possible; therefore nothing anyone says is correct... in brewcity77-land
If it was anyone else, I wouldn't belabor this. But you try to be the precision police constantly. It's okay to own up when you're wrong, and you're wrong here.
Considering how you are avoiding and trying to deflect, it's pretty clear you know it too.
Quote from: tower912 on January 11, 2025, 08:05:52 PMMeateaters for doxxing again.
Guess I haven't paid attention to who the meateaters are, but it sounds provocative.
Quote from: brewcity77 on January 11, 2025, 08:07:16 PMIf it was anyone else, I wouldn't belabor this. But you try to be the precision police constantly. It's okay to own up when you're wrong, and you're wrong here.
Considering how you are avoiding and trying to deflect, it's pretty clear you know it too.
I'm not avoiding anything. Just trying to figure out what you're trying to say. Are you going through a rough patch in life? Sorry buddy.
Did you think I said or implied in your mind, "it's never mathematically possible for FT% to be THE deciding factor (never happens btw)" and you're freaking out over it? Yeeeesh
Anyway, #FTsNoMatta
Quote from: DoctorV on January 11, 2025, 08:11:55 PMGuess I haven't paid attention to who the meateaters are, but it sounds provocative.
So lost!