As we approach the halfway mark of the regular season, Cracked Sidewalks was wondering if Marquette could earn the first 1-seed in program history this year. We break down historic 1-seed resumes in the NET era as well as the statistical trends 1-seed teams tend to have in order to determine what Marquette needs to do to get there. Spoiler alert...it's really hard.
We also have a new S-Curve and bracket.
Cracketology: Anatomy of a 1-Seed (http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2025/01/cracketology-anatomy-of-1-seed.html)
Get hot, stay hot. Make some 3s.
Good stuff, Brew.
Thanks for the analysis. Would being the last #1 basically push MU to San Francisco for the sweet 16 and elite 8, where being the first or second #2 give us a shot at Indy?
Quote from: nairb on January 07, 2025, 06:43:15 AMThanks for the analysis. Would being the last #1 basically push MU to San Francisco for the sweet 16 and elite 8, where being the first or second #2 give us a shot at Indy?
Being the last one would mean San Francisco. Getting to Indy would probably mean finishing at least #3 overall. Duke would go to Newark first, so we can be behind them, but not behind two of Auburn/Tennessee/Iowa State.
I hate to say it, but at half of the Creighton game, I was enlightened and came to the realization that this can be the year. National Championship. Things have to fall into place / avoid crazy injuries... but we are setup nicely to give ourselves a great chance. See y'all in TX.
Quote from: brewcity77 on January 07, 2025, 07:04:56 AMBeing the last one would mean San Francisco. Getting to Indy would probably mean finishing at least #3 overall. Duke would go to Newark first, so we can be behind them, but not behind two of Auburn/Tennessee/Iowa State.
I meant heading to Indy as a #2 seed as your bracketology indicates. Could argue a preference for a #2 in Indy instead of a #1 in SF.
Quote from: nairb on January 07, 2025, 07:18:44 AMI meant heading to Indy as a #2 seed as your bracketology indicates. Could argue a preference for a #2 in Indy instead of a #1 in SF.
Gotcha. At the moment, Indy against an SEC 1-seed or Iowa State is most likely.
Bracketing principles will be challenged by the number of SEC teams in the top-16. I expect the committee will try to avoid having a 1/2 seed in the same region from the SEC, so what it really takes is having an SEC team (Auburn or Tennessee) in Indy, which will prevent Iowa State from getting there as a 1 (which would likely force an SEC team to that 2-seed) and prevent an SEC 2 like Alabama, Florida, or Mississippi State from getting Indy.
Quote from: nairb on January 07, 2025, 07:18:44 AMI meant heading to Indy as a #2 seed as your bracketology indicates. Could argue a preference for a #2 in Indy instead of a #1 in SF.
You could only argue that based on travel convenience and possible crowd size effect, but definitely not with regards to odds of success in the NCAAt as brew has shown with the odds as a #1 versus a #2 seed.
Best opportunity for success is all that matters when you're a team as good as Marquette, so a 1 is definitely the preference.
It'll be hard as hell, but a trip to SF would definitely be the preference in that scenario.
As an aside- I've travelled to each of the last two 1st/2nd rd locations for the dance and both experiences were great.
It's always fun to see Marquette faithful on the road, be in a basketball pure environment, mix it up with other fan bases, and get to see NCAA Tournament wins.
I'm sure the players really love the support at the sites, during the send off receptions, and any blue/gold they see or hear in the crowd.
Beyond that, I'm not quite sure that it has a big effect on the game and the teams success.
Marquette fans travel well, and there would definitely be less in SF than in Indy, but I think that better/easier matchups would be a much bigger benefit than a local site. Having your first few games at the United Center would be great, but even then I think the easier road prevails.
Don't you have to buy the next round with newsdreams?
Quote from: DoctorV on January 07, 2025, 07:56:43 AMYou could only argue that based on travel convenience and possible crowd size effect, but definitely not with regards to odds of success in the NCAAt as brew has shown with the odds as a #1 versus a #2 seed.
Best opportunity for success is all that matters when you're a team as good as Marquette, so a 1 is definitely the preference.
It'll be hard as hell, but a trip to SF would definitely be the preference in that scenario.
I agree that the 1 is preferable. Most protected seeds are from the eastern half of the country, so going to the West likely means being in the weakest region. Further, the historic 1-seed win percentage against 8 or 9 seeds is better than 2-seeds against 7/10s.
The 4/5 matchups also tend to be much easier for a 1 than 3/6s. It's also preferable to know that in the second weekend, your expected path is 4/2 as opposed to a much stronger 3/1. In addition, big brands will travel, so whether it's Indy or San Fran, we will likely be at a crowd disadvantage.
Another factor is overall region strength. The committee will try to balance the top-4 seed lines but also keep teams close to home. As mentioned above, this means the West will probably be weakest 1-4 but it will almost certainly be weaker 5-16 where teams are seeded by distance as the first factor. The teams higher on each seed line will be kept closer to home, which means the teams shipped further away will typically be on the lower end of each seed line.
Great stuff Brew. Very detailed explanation of how difficult it will be for Marquette to earn a 1 seed.
As far as easier paths, sure the 1 seeds have an easier path on paper. But upsets can throw that out the window. Last year, Marquette had a path of 15/10/11 to the Regional Final and Houston had 16/9/4. Neither team won in the Sweet 16, but 2 seed Marquette had the easier path.
My gut also tells me that 1 seeds are the most successful in the tournament because the best teams earn 1 seeds. No data to back that up, but I'm curious what an analysis of S-curve position looks like. Especially the 1/2 seed cutline.
Solid responses from Dr. V and Brewcity. Thanks guys.
What seed in 1977?
Quote from: Juan Anderson's Mixtape on January 07, 2025, 09:51:37 AMLast year, Marquette had a path of 15/10/11 to the Regional Final and Houston had 16/9/4. Neither team won in the Sweet 16, but 2 seed Marquette had the easier path.
My gut also tells me that 1 seeds are the most successful in the tournament because the best teams earn 1 seeds. No data to back that up, but I'm curious what an analysis of S-curve position looks like. Especially the 1/2 seed cutline.
Marquette definitely had the easier path, which is why I also lament 2023 as that bracket opened up for us with Purdue and Alabama losing, but our own loss rendered it moot.
I like that topic idea and will see if I can dig in and incorporate that into a future article. I feel like while the 1s will always have the best path (and as you note, team quality) it's rarely the #1 overall that wins it all.
Quote from: Jay Bee on January 07, 2025, 07:05:32 AMI hate to say it, but at half of the Creighton game, I was enlightened and came to the realization that this can be the year. National Championship. Things have to fall into place / avoid crazy injuries... but we are setup nicely to give ourselves a great chance. See y'all in TX.
What is a crazy injury? A season ending injury?
I fully expect Chase and Stevie to miss time just by the manner in which they play.
Quote from: brewcity77 on January 07, 2025, 10:10:24 AMMarquette definitely had the easier path, which is why I also lament 2023 as that bracket opened up for us with Purdue and Alabama losing, but our own loss rendered it moot.
I like that topic idea and will see if I can dig in and incorporate that into a future article. I feel like while the 1s will always have the best path (and as you note, team quality) it's rarely the #1 overall that wins it all.
You could do a four team bracket with just the top 4 teams and the top team might still win less than 50% of the time. They would have to be 70% favorites in both games. The #1 team in kenpom right now, Auburn, is only at 73% for a HOME game against #4 Tennessee.
I would take a 1 seed in San Francisco 10 times out of 10 for all the reasons brewski explained. And I don't just say that now that I'm closer to SF, because overall a trip to Indy would be less expensive. I'd just rather be a 1.
So let's do it!
Great to be talking about the possibility of a 1 seed.
Even better, the absence of the "one game at a time" posts is refreshing and shows how much the program has progressed.
Quote from: DoctorV on January 07, 2025, 07:56:43 AMYou could only argue that based on travel convenience and possible crowd size effect, but definitely not with regards to odds of success in the NCAAt as brew has shown with the odds as a #1 versus a #2 seed.
Best opportunity for success is all that matters when you're a team as good as Marquette, so a 1 is definitely the preference.
It'll be hard as hell, but a trip to SF would definitely be the preference in that scenario.
As an aside- I've travelled to each of the last two 1st/2nd rd locations for the dance and both experiences were great.
It's always fun to see Marquette faithful on the road, be in a basketball pure environment, mix it up with other fan bases, and get to see NCAA Tournament wins.
I'm sure the players really love the support at the sites, during the send off receptions, and any blue/gold they see or hear in the crowd.
Beyond that, I'm not quite sure that it has a big effect on the game and the teams success.
Marquette fans travel well, and there would definitely be less in SF than in Indy, but I think that better/easier matchups would be a much bigger benefit than a local site. Having your first few games at the United Center would be great, but even then I think the easier road prevails.
Not the only thing that'll be hard as hell if MU gets the SF one seed.
Quote from: Shaka Shart on January 07, 2025, 01:53:52 PMNot the only thing that'll be hard as hell if MU gets the SF one seed.
Wut?
Quote from: We R Final Four on January 07, 2025, 01:55:51 PMWut?
I believe Shaka Shart is saying that he will have an erection that is "hard as hell" should Marquuette get a 1 seed.
Quote from: TAMU, Knower of Ball on January 07, 2025, 02:02:38 PMI believe Shaka Shart is saying that he will have an erection that is "hard as hell" should Marquuette get a 1 seed.
Yeah...was seriously hoping that was nor the case.
Quote from: Jay Bee on January 07, 2025, 07:05:32 AMI hate to say it, but at half of the Creighton game, I was enlightened and came to the realization that this can be the year. National Championship. Things have to fall into place / avoid crazy injuries... but we are setup nicely to give ourselves a great chance. See y'all in TX.
I'm with you Jay Bee. Kam is Wade like with his impact on offense and the stable of attack dogs on defense is impressive.
Quote from: We R Final Four on January 07, 2025, 02:29:48 PMYeah...was seriously hoping that was nor the case.
The human body is amazing. I hope one day you come to appreciate that
Quote from: Shaka Shart on January 07, 2025, 03:06:47 PMThe human body is amazing. I hope one day you come to appreciate that
....and come to a college basketball chat to tell the world!
Quote from: We R Final Four on January 07, 2025, 03:10:07 PM....and come to a college basketball chat to tell the world!
That's right!
Quote from: We R Final Four on January 07, 2025, 03:10:07 PM....and come to a college basketball chat to tell the world!
Sex positivity, bro
This thread almost jinxed the Georgetown game.
Nice article, Brew, but I have a couple of questions. How are the "predictive" and "resumé" numbers derived? Thanks in advance.
Quote from: We R Final Four on January 07, 2025, 02:29:48 PMYeah...was seriously hoping that was nor the case.
Sounds like you're boner negative
Quote from: DoctorV on January 07, 2025, 10:39:16 PMSounds like you're boner negative
(https://i.gifer.com/1ydn.gif)
Thank you everyone for all the sex positivity.
Quote from: mileskishnish72 on January 07, 2025, 09:52:18 PMNice article, Brew, but I have a couple of questions. How are the "predictive" and "resumé" numbers derived? Thanks in advance.
In addition to the NET, which is primarily a sorting tool, there are six metrics on the team sheet.
The resume metrics are the Kevin Pauga Index, Strength of Record, and Wins Above Bubble. They are different, but the main goal is to evaluate a team's results against their strength of schedule. They are primarily interested in whether you win or lose and where you do it rather than how you do it. The Resume number in the article is the average of that year's resume metrics. WAB is new to the team sheet this year, the others have been there since 2020.
The predictive metrics are kenpom, the Basketball Performance Index, and T-Rank (often referred to as Torvik in reference to its creator, Bart Torvik). They are focused on efficiency and tempo free numbers. So it's more about how you win or lose, and you can benefit from losing closer than expected or be penalized for winning closer than you should. Previously Sagarin was on here, but that metric was discontinued last year and replaced by T-Rank this year. The Predictive number is the average of these.
It's also worth noting SOR & BPI are owned by ESPN. I'm personally not a fan of a media outlet with a financial interest controlling these, especially as BPI was pretty much singularly the reason Mountain West teams were underseeded last year due to the ESPN metrics having a negative modifier for teams that play at higher altitude.
Who the heck is Kevin Pauga?
How long before the BCI, Brew City Index?
Quote from: DoctorV on January 07, 2025, 11:18:31 PMWho the heck is Kevin Pauga?
How long before the BCI, Brew City Index?
Statistician that started his career on Tom Izzo's staff. He was video coordinator for MSU when he developed the formula, and is now an Associate AD there.