MUScoop

MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: 1SE on December 22, 2024, 12:09:39 PM

Title: The Logic of TOs
Post by: 1SE on December 22, 2024, 12:09:39 PM
So I was screaming at the TV for Shaka to take a TO during that 14-0 run, almost blowing up when he didn't take one when they cut it to 6. Of course you want TOs for end of game situations (so one can, and some did, argue that taking the TO up 13 was an even worse mistake) but not taking one there (or during that run) absolutely below my mind.

It looks like there is a bit evidence that taking TOs actually does help stop runs

https://youtu.be/hY_Nyff0lnc

https://www.causeweb.org/usproc/sites/default/files/usresp/2019-1/An%20Examination%20of%20Timeout%20Value%2C%20Strategy%2C%20and%20Momentum%20in%20NCAA%20Division%201%20Mens%20Basketball.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com

https://ryansbrill.com/pdf/statistics_in_sports_papers/Causal_NBA_timeout.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/254229181_Brief_exploration_of_short_and_mid-term_timeout_effects_on_basketball_scoring_according_to_situational_variables?utm_source=chatgpt.com

I searched back and I think this has been an issue with Shaka at least a couple other times.

Do you think this is a deliberate strategy (let the guys figure it out themselves) or did Shaka just get a bit shell-shocked yesterday and let them game get away?

Ultimately all well that ends well.
Title: Re: The Logic of TOs
Post by: PGsHeroes32 on December 22, 2024, 12:14:16 PM
Yeah not using a TO during the run was a rare shaka blunder.
Title: Re: The Logic of TOs
Post by: Nukem2 on December 22, 2024, 12:21:44 PM
Shaka seemingly does not like to use TOs. He had extras at Dayton and ISU that he certainly could have used.
Title: Re: The Logic of TOs
Post by: tower912 on December 22, 2024, 12:24:38 PM
I think it was a strategy.
Title: Re: The Logic of TOs
Post by: Uncle Rico on December 22, 2024, 12:26:20 PM
Timeouts are for losers
Title: Re: The Logic of TOs
Post by: MUfan12 on December 22, 2024, 12:38:09 PM
Also thought he could have taken one. I think he trusted the guys to figure it out, and didn't want to burn it with the under 4 coming.
Title: Re: The Logic of TOs
Post by: BM1090 on December 22, 2024, 12:40:06 PM
Quote from: MUfan12 on December 22, 2024, 12:38:09 PMAlso thought he could have taken one. I think he trusted the guys to figure it out, and didn't want to burn it with the under 4 coming.

Agree with this. And if it was vs, UConn, SJU, or in tournament play I'm confident he would have used one.
Title: Re: The Logic of TOs
Post by: ATL MU Warrior on December 22, 2024, 01:00:26 PM
Quote from: tower912 on December 22, 2024, 12:24:38 PMI think it was a strategy.
I agree. We have an experienced team. Let them figure it out.
Title: Re: The Logic of TOs
Post by: tower912 on December 22, 2024, 01:04:27 PM
Taking timeouts is always a strategy.  Like any other strategy, sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't.
Title: Re: The Logic of TOs
Post by: Lennys Tap on December 22, 2024, 01:39:28 PM
My wife used to give our kids time outs when they misbehaved. They had to sit on a bench and think about what they had done wrong. I don't remember it doing a lot of good.
Title: Re: The Logic of TOs
Post by: DoctorV on December 22, 2024, 01:40:13 PM
I've always thought it would be interesting if a scooper with nothing but time on his/her hands went back and looked at Shaka's TO and late game tendencies during his lengthy NCAA tourney first round losing streak and particularly his time at Texas, and then reported back...

Shaka went through a long, nearly decade long, stretch of losing nail bitingly close games in big situations, often in elimination games.
I wonder if these experiences changed how he's handling late game and/or his team collapsing situations at Marquette?

He doesn't seem to love taking timeouts during opposing runs and often times lets the guys play through it. Recently he took one when MU was making a run, Buzz style.

Either way, one of the things that I've noticed during his time at Marquette, that I've spoken about before in this forum, is that he seems a bit different on the big stage during elimination games. He has seemed a bit "tighter" or more "demanding" if you will, a bit harder on his guys than during the long haul of the 30 game season.
Part of it is human nature, but part of is has to be the past decade of results.
There's no harder feat than trying to get back to the top of the mountain when you burst onto the scene and got there at such a young age.

Shaka is trying to better the Final 4 success he had at VCU, and he's on a great track at Marquette. I'm of the strong belief that when he breaks thru one time at MU it'll greatly open things up for both the program and his own personal success
Title: Re: The Logic of TOs
Post by: Newsdreams on December 22, 2024, 01:46:03 PM
Quote from: Uncle Rico on December 22, 2024, 12:26:20 PMTimeouts are for losers
See Mike Dean
Title: Re: The Logic of TOs
Post by: Uncle Rico on December 22, 2024, 02:10:54 PM
Quote from: Newsdreams on December 22, 2024, 01:46:03 PMSee Mike Dean

We need someone to do a deep dive on Brian Wardle's use of timeouts
Title: Re: The Logic of TOs
Post by: tower912 on December 22, 2024, 02:19:27 PM
Porter Moser has a strategy for using TO's.  For that matter, Wojo had a strategy for timeouts.
Title: Re: The Logic of TOs
Post by: Scoop Snoop on December 22, 2024, 02:43:46 PM
Quote from: tower912 on December 22, 2024, 02:19:27 PMPorter Moser has a strategy for using TO's.  For that matter, Wojo had a strategy for timeouts.

Wojo's strategy was to shout, "play harder!"
Title: Re: The Logic of TOs
Post by: tower912 on December 22, 2024, 02:46:17 PM
Well, yeah, after he used the strategery to call it.
Title: Re: The Logic of TOs
Post by: K1 Lover on December 22, 2024, 02:46:50 PM
Quote from: DoctorV on December 22, 2024, 01:40:13 PMI've always thought it would be interesting if a scooper with nothing but time on his/her hands went back and looked at Shaka's TO and late game tendencies during his lengthy NCAA tourney first round losing streak and particularly his time at Texas, and then reported back...

Shaka went through a long, nearly decade long, stretch of losing nail bitingly close games in big situations, often in elimination games.
I wonder if these experiences changed how he's handling late game and/or his team collapsing situations at Marquette?

He doesn't seem to love taking timeouts during opposing runs and often times lets the guys play through it. Recently he took one when MU was making a run, Buzz style.

Either way, one of the things that I've noticed during his time at Marquette, that I've spoken about before in this forum, is that he seems a bit different on the big stage during elimination games. He has seemed a bit "tighter" or more "demanding" if you will, a bit harder on his guys than during the long haul of the 30 game season.
Part of it is human nature, but part of is has to be the past decade of results.
There's no harder feat than trying to get back to the top of the mountain when you burst onto the scene and got there at such a young age.

Shaka is trying to better the Final 4 success he had at VCU, and he's on a great track at Marquette. I'm of the strong belief that when he breaks thru one time at MU it'll greatly open things up for both the program and his own personal success

Let's pray he breaks through this year.
Title: Re: The Logic of TOs
Post by: Scoop Snoop on December 22, 2024, 03:14:59 PM
Quote from: tower912 on December 22, 2024, 02:46:17 PMWell, yeah, after he used the strategery to call it.

Who is Gerry? And what does he have to do with strategy? Is he gerrymandering?
Title: Re: The Logic of TOs
Post by: We R Final Four on December 22, 2024, 04:22:26 PM
We
Quote from: DoctorV on December 22, 2024, 01:40:13 PMI've always thought it would be interesting if a scooper with nothing but time on his/her hands went back and looked at Shaka's TO and late game tendencies during his lengthy NCAA tourney first round losing streak and particularly his time at Texas, and then reported back...

Shaka went through a long, nearly decade long, stretch of losing nail bitingly close games in big situations, often in elimination games.
I wonder if these experiences changed how he's handling late game and/or his team collapsing situations at Marquette?

He doesn't seem to love taking timeouts during opposing runs and often times lets the guys play through it. Recently he took one when MU was making a run, Buzz style.

Either way, one of the things that I've noticed during his time at Marquette, that I've spoken about before in this forum, is that he seems a bit different on the big stage during elimination games. He has seemed a bit "tighter" or more "demanding" if you will, a bit harder on his guys than during the long haul of the 30 game season.
Part of it is human nature, but part of is has to be the past decade of results.
There's no harder feat than trying to get back to the top of the mountain when you burst onto the scene and got there at such a young age.

Shaka is trying to better the Final 4 success he had at VCU, and he's on a great track at Marquette. I'm of the strong belief that when he breaks thru one time at MU it'll greatly open things up for both the program and his own personal success
werent everyone one of those situations preceeded by a play-in game victory FInal four??
We certainly should equally evaluate the timeouts he took during that run as well
Title: Re: The Logic of TOs
Post by: Newsdreams on December 22, 2024, 05:45:32 PM
Quote from: Scoop Snoop on December 22, 2024, 03:14:59 PMWho is Gerry? And what does he have to do with strategy? Is he gerrymandering?
Ramsey's 2nd cousin
Title: Re: The Logic of TOs
Post by: TAMU, Knower of Ball on December 22, 2024, 10:30:51 PM
Shaka defintely likes to let his guys figure it out rather than spending timeouts during opponet runs. One of the few areas I disagree with him... but he knows a helleva lot more ball than I do
Title: Re: The Logic of TOs
Post by: CTWarrior on December 23, 2024, 07:10:21 AM
Quote from: 1SE on December 22, 2024, 12:09:39 PMSo I was screaming at the TV for Shaka to take a TO during that 14-0 run, almost blowing up when he didn't take one when they cut it to 6. Of course you want TOs for end of game situations (so one can, and some did, argue that taking the TO up 13 was an even worse mistake) but not taking one there (or during that run) absolutely below my mind.

It looks like there is a bit evidence that taking TOs actually does help stop runs

https://youtu.be/hY_Nyff0lnc

https://www.causeweb.org/usproc/sites/default/files/usresp/2019-1/An%20Examination%20of%20Timeout%20Value%2C%20Strategy%2C%20and%20Momentum%20in%20NCAA%20Division%201%20Mens%20Basketball.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com

https://ryansbrill.com/pdf/statistics_in_sports_papers/Causal_NBA_timeout.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/254229181_Brief_exploration_of_short_and_mid-term_timeout_effects_on_basketball_scoring_according_to_situational_variables?utm_source=chatgpt.com

I searched back and I think this has been an issue with Shaka at least a couple other times.

Do you think this is a deliberate strategy (let the guys figure it out themselves) or did Shaka just get a bit shell-shocked yesterday and let them game get away?

Ultimately all well that ends well.
I certainly don't think the bolded was the case.  But I wanted a timeout in the middle of that run, too.

There are many reasons to call a timeout.

1.  Call a play/get a sub in
2.  Stop momentum
3.  Manage clock in end-game situations.


I think Shaka just thinks that number 3 is the best use of timeouts, while I think stopping momentum is the biggest.  He's the successful college coach and I am the fan for a reason.
Title: Re: The Logic of TOs
Post by: WarriorFan on December 23, 2024, 07:20:12 AM
I think Shaka knew that the foul trouble was likely to create a need for Time outs in the last 2 minutes for offense/defense substitutions so he needed to let the guys figure out the run so he had what he needed to win in the end. 

Worked out OK, IMHO.

Wish Ben would have asked that question in the post-game, however.
Title: Re: The Logic of TOs
Post by: mileskishnish72 on December 23, 2024, 07:49:01 AM
I'm always happy when Shaka calls a time-out to get the walk-ons checked in.
Title: Re: The Logic of TOs
Post by: bilsu on December 23, 2024, 07:58:34 AM
What stops runs is making free throws, Missing the front end of two one & ones almost cost us the game.
Title: Re: The Logic of TOs
Post by: Norm on December 23, 2024, 08:30:03 AM
Didn't he leave two time outs unused in the MSU NCAA game two years ago?
Title: Re: The Logic of TOs
Post by: Juan Anderson's Mixtape on December 23, 2024, 08:38:52 AM
As I mentioned in the game recap, Shaka oddly took a timeout up 13. Then Xavier went on their big run.

I believe burning that timeout handcuffed Shaka a bit. He didn't want to burn a 2nd timeout to stop the run.

I think Shaka wanted to save one TO in case we needed to save possession (trouble inbounding, getting trapped near the sideline, loose ball on the floor, etc.) and a second TO for the end of the game (either drawing up a play for the last shot or to set his defense).

The lesson is never call a timeout when you have a comfy lead. You need to wait until the opponent goes on a run to call TO and stop momentum. Call TO when the lead is cut to 6-8, not when you extend the lead to 13.
Title: Re: The Logic of TOs
Post by: MUfan12 on December 23, 2024, 10:18:32 AM
What's interesting is at the time, I actually thought that was a good timeout. Things had gotten a little ragged, especially on defense, and they could regroup after a bucket.
Title: Re: The Logic of TOs
Post by: The Thing on December 23, 2024, 10:53:04 AM
The way our guys run on defense, I'm wondering if the timeout up 13 was just to give them a quick breather?
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