Is it just me, or is Wisconsin being grossly underestimated in this matchup?
Every single neutral source I've come across that's already talking about our upcoming game — be it sportsbook, analytics site, or podcast — has predicted that MU will get the W. BartTorvik, for example, forecasts us winning by 7.1 points with 75% confidence, which is suprisingly even more confidence than it had for ISU beating us in Hilton last night.
As much as I'd like to fully buy into that, however, I can't help but feel like Wisconsin has a frustratingly equal, if not favorable, chance of winning on Saturday. They have a Keshon Gilbert-esque stud in John Tonje, and anyone who's watched Wisconsin play this season knows that they love to rack up free throws (see the 47 they shot against Arizona for reference). Combine this with the fact that we're already a foul-prone team as is, and it's not hard to see how this could quickly get out of hand — especially when our lineup is likely going to be down at least 2-3 impact players including Sean. Although we have the homecourt advantage and better metrics, Wisconsin will surely benefit from being deeper, healthier, and older with 5 seniors in their rotation.
Ultimately, I still believe Marquette has everything it needs to take back the state; I just think it's going to be a much more difficult game than most might expect for the reasons stated above. But by the same token, if our boys overcome the obstacles needed to pull this off, I think it's safe to say this will easily serve as one of our most impressive wins of the entire season.
Wisconsin is not as good as you are giving them credit for. My only concern is injuries. If Chase is out then yes, it'll be tough. But this will not be one of our most impressive wins if him and Ben both play. We're the home team and the better team. Take care of business.
Quote from: wadesworld on December 05, 2024, 06:42:51 PMWisconsin is not as good as you are giving them credit for. My only concern is injuries. If Chase is out then yes, it'll be tough. But this will not be one of our most impressive wins if him and Ben both play. We're the home team and the better team. Take care of business.
Man I sure hope you're right. I'd love nothing more than to eat my words this weekend.
We will beat them by double digits......every year.
Honestly we make way too much out of this game. MU under Shaka has bigger things to worry about than whether or not we beat the Badgers. Shaka hasn't beat them yet, but he's doing just fine.
Good point. Though it'd sure be nice for Kam, Stevie, and Jop to get at least one win against the Badgers in their college career before graduating. :'(
Quote from: wadesworld on December 05, 2024, 06:57:36 PMHonestly we make way too much out of this game. MU under Shaka has bigger things to worry about than whether or not we beat the Badgers. Shaka hasn't beat them yet, but he's doing just fine.
Don't you understand? We have to "take back the state!"
Quote from: The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole on December 05, 2024, 07:04:16 PMDon't you understand? We have to "take back the state!"
Came for discussion and instead I got mockery. Nice.
Quote from: K1 Lover on December 05, 2024, 07:08:09 PMCame for discussion and instead I got mockery. Nice.
It will likely be a close game. I hope we win. We will know in less than 48 hours.
Quote from: The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole on December 05, 2024, 07:11:15 PMIt will likely be a close game. I hope we win. We will know in less than 48 hours.
Thinking of Viper's brother-in-law
Quote from: K1 Lover on December 05, 2024, 06:39:55 PMIs it just me, or is Wisconsin being grossly underestimated in this matchup?
Every single neutral source I've come across that's already talking about our upcoming game — be it sportsbook, analytics site, or podcast — has predicted that MU will get the W. BartTorvik, for example, forecasts us winning by 7.1 points with 75% confidence, which is suprisingly even more confidence than it had for ISU beating us in Hilton last night.
As much as I'd like to fully buy into that, however, I can't help but feel like Wisconsin has a frustratingly equal, if not favorable, chance of winning on Saturday. They have a Keshon Gilbert-esque stud in John Tonje, and anyone who's watched Wisconsin play this season knows that they love to rack up free throws (see the 47 they shot against Arizona for reference). Combine this with the fact that we're already a foul-prone team as is, and it's not hard to see how this could quickly get out of hand — especially when our lineup is likely going to be down at least 2-3 impact players including Sean. Although we have the homecourt advantage and better metrics, Wisconsin will surely benefit from being deeper, healthier, and older with 5 seniors in their rotation.
Ultimately, I still believe Marquette has everything it needs to take back the state; I just think it's going to be a much more difficult game than most might expect for the reasons stated above. But by the same token, if our boys overcome the obstacles needed to pull this off, I think it's safe to say this will easily serve as one of our most impressive wins of the entire season.
I think you can throw the projections like Torvik and KenPom out the window unless they can somehow account for injuries. Not having Lowrey and Ross completely changes MU's style and takes away its biggest strength: the pressure defense.
I note that MU had 2 fast break points last night compared to 19 against Purdue. Take away the points off live ball turnovers and MU is reduced to a half court offense heavily dependent on 3 point shots. I think they'll have to hit at least 40% of their 3's to win Saturday.
Quote from: wadesworld on December 05, 2024, 06:57:36 PMHonestly we make way too much out of this game. MU under Shaka has bigger things to worry about than whether or not we beat the Badgers. Shaka hasn't beat them yet, but he's doing just fine.
beat your rival. Michigan football is 7-5 but beat Ohio State, again. That's huge. Always beat your rival. Always! I mean, you live in WI? Can't go 4 straight L's to those mothers.
Quote from: The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole on December 05, 2024, 07:04:16 PMDon't you understand? We have to "take back the state!"
says the guy from the state south of WI.
Quote from: The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole on December 05, 2024, 07:11:15 PMIt will likely be a close game. I hope we win. We will know in less than 48 hours.
profound, very
Quote from: K1 Lover on December 05, 2024, 06:39:55 PMIs it just me, or is Wisconsin being grossly underestimated in this matchup?
Metrics like kenpom and T-Rank base their projections on efficiency margins and game location. When a more efficient team plays at home against a less efficient team, the more efficient team will be favored. The point spread will also reflect that.
I think Bucky is a tough matchup, but from a neutral computer's perspective, we're the better team and we're at home, which means we probably win 3 times out of 4.
Quote from: Viper on December 05, 2024, 07:40:21 PMbeat your rival. Michigan football is 7-5 but beat Ohio State, again. That's huge. Always beat your rival. Always! I mean, you live in WI? Can't go 4 straight L's to those mothers.
I live in Wisconsin and my life hasn't changed one bit even though Wisconsin has beaten Marquette 3 straight times
Just win, baby.
Quote from: brewcity77 on December 05, 2024, 07:45:50 PMMetrics like kenpom and T-Rank base their projections on efficiency margins and game location. When a more efficient team plays at home against a less efficient team, the more efficient team will be favored. The point spread will also reflect that.
I think Bucky is a tough matchup, but from a neutral computer's perspective, we're the better team and we're at home, which means we probably win 3 times out of 4.
Don't you think playing without Ross and Lowrey affects MU's efficiency and, therefore, the validity of those projections?
It may not be a big factor, but MU doesn't get the full home crowd advantage against the Badgers either because they will have a very noticeable portion of the crowd behind them.
If Vegas follows the computers and makes MU a 7 point favorite taking UW and the points would be a good bet.
If we lose, it'll be in the Q2 column unfortunately. I think the two keys to the game are Kam staying out of foul trouble and Tonje not getting that crazy and bizarre whistle he's gotten. Fortunately, I think the refs have finally made note of that and will allow some contact. No idea what the hell was going on those first few games with that whistle he was getting.
Quote from: wisblue on December 05, 2024, 07:34:22 PMI think you can throw the projections like Torvik and KenPom out the window unless they can somehow account for injuries. Not having Lowrey and Ross completely changes MU's style and takes away its biggest strength: the pressure defense.
I note that MU had 2 fast break points last night compared to 19 against Purdue. Take away the points off live ball turnovers and MU is reduced to a half court offense heavily dependent on 3 point shots. I think they'll have to hit at least 40% of their 3's to win Saturday.
Who knows...maybe not having Ross and Lowery makes them tougher to scout. As Shaka says...sometimes Freshman are so inexperienced that it can actually work in their favor because they don't know the magnitude of the moment and are just playing.
I agree with tower...Just win, baby!
Quote from: CountryRoads on December 05, 2024, 07:53:31 PMIf we lose, it'll be in the Q2 column unfortunately. I think the two keys to the game are Kam staying out of foul trouble and Tonje not getting that crazy and bizarre whistle he's gotten. Fortunately, I think the refs have finally made note of that and will allow some contact. No idea what the hell was going on those first few games with that whistle he was getting.
Well, they lost to them last year at full strength and still ended the year as a 2-seed.
We all want them to win and blow them out but this game is one of many in a long season. It's not like they're playing Radford
Quote from: Viper on December 05, 2024, 07:42:59 PMprofound, very
Well what have you added? Outside of your "beat your rival" nonsense.
UW plays a style that is difficult for Marquette to function against offensively. But we will be at home and if we hit our shots we will win. Not much to break down here.
I don't expect an easy win. I do expect a win.
Their guards turned it over 8 times at home just two days ago. I'm hopeful we can turn them over (even without Ross), and that we'll shoot well at home. I think both of those hopes are realistic.
It appears viper has been welcomed back just in time for his favorite subject. And boy is he taking advantage.
My concern is they shot so bad from 3 last game especially klesmit that they are due. He killed us last year, don't want to see another performance like tha.
Quote from: wisblue on December 05, 2024, 07:52:23 PMDon't you think playing without Ross and Lowrey affects MU's efficiency and, therefore, the validity of those projections?
It may not be a big factor, but MU doesn't get the full home crowd advantage against the Badgers either because they will have a very noticeable portion of the crowd behind them.
If Vegas follows the computers and makes MU a 7 point favorite taking UW and the points would be a good bet.
Quite possibly. But again, the OP was asking why it seemed the metrics, line, and podcasts were picking Marquette. The reason is likely because the metrics favor Marquette, the lines are set off similar metrics, and many of the podcasts are just going off analytics and gut.
Quote from: HowardsWorld on December 05, 2024, 08:29:55 PMMy concern is they shot so bad from 3 last game especially klesmit that they are due. He killed us last year, don't want to see another performance like tha.
Thought the same thing.. another klesmit barrage inbound?
The good news is Kam and Jop shot terribly last game for us. So I guess they're due for a big game. Or does that only work against MU?
Quote from: wadesworld on December 05, 2024, 09:28:50 PMThe good news is Kam and Jop shot terribly last game for us. So I guess they're due for a big game. Or does that only work against MU?
Stop it. Optimism is verboten, especially when Madison is the opponent.
Seriously though ... I'm feeling a big scoring game from Kam.
Quote from: brewcity77 on December 05, 2024, 09:25:15 PMQuite possibly. But again, the OP was asking why it seemed the metrics, line, and podcasts were picking Marquette. The reason is likely because the metrics favor Marquette, the lines are set off similar metrics, and many of the podcasts are just going off analytics and gut.
Perhaps I could've been clearer and it makes little difference, but picking Marquette makes sense to me. It's the idea that we should win somewhat comfortably that I'm hesitant to accept. To me, a reasonably set line would be Marquette -1.5.
I felt compelled to post since my MU friends don't seem to have much doubt for this game's outcome, and neither does the general media, apparently. It seemed like I might be alone in that regard. But I guess that just makes me one of the 1-in-10 dentists (am I fitting in with Scoop yet?).
Quote from: K1 Lover on December 05, 2024, 10:22:26 PMPerhaps I could've been clearer and it makes little difference, but picking Marquette makes sense to me. It's the idea that we should win somewhat comfortably that I'm hesitant to accept. To me, a reasonably set line would be Marquette -1.5.
I felt compelled to post since my MU friends don't seem to have much doubt for this game's outcome, and neither does the general media, apparently. It seemed like I might be alone in that regard. But I guess that just means I'm a part of the 1-in-10 dentists (am I fitting in with Scoop yet?).
The only way a line of MU -1.5 makes sense is if MU ruled out Gold and Chase.
Quote from: wadesworld on December 05, 2024, 10:23:47 PMThe only way a line of MU -1.5 makes sense is if MU ruled out Gold and Chase.
What's the word on Gold? I've seen rumblings in several places that his status is in doubt too.
I'm having trouble with some of the logic here.
If 7 points is a reasonable spread with MU at full strength, why shouldn't the spread be significantly closer when a team that relies heavily on defense loses two of its top defenders?
Quote from: wisblue on December 05, 2024, 10:46:50 PMWhat's the word on Gold? I've seen rumblings in several places that his status is in doubt too.
I'm having trouble with some of the logic here.
If 7 points is a reasonable spread with MU at full strength, why shouldn't the spread be significantly closer when a team that relies heavily on defense loses two of its top defenders?
https://x.com/bensteelemjs/status/1864843284897472930?s=46
Quote from: HowardsWorld on December 05, 2024, 08:29:55 PMMy concern is they shot so bad from 3 last game especially klesmit that they are due. He killed us last year, don't want to see another performance like tha.
Hope you don't gamble.
Quote from: K1 Lover on December 05, 2024, 10:22:26 PMPerhaps I could've been clearer and it makes little difference, but picking Marquette makes sense to me. It's the idea that we should win somewhat comfortably that I'm hesitant to accept. To me, a reasonably set line would be Marquette -1.5.
I felt compelled to post since my MU friends don't seem to have much doubt for this game's outcome, and neither does the general media, apparently. It seemed like I might be alone in that regard. But I guess that just means I'm a part of the 1-in-10 dentists (am I fitting in with Scoop yet?).
There are places that would take that action, and you could make a fortune!
Quote from: K1 Lover on December 05, 2024, 10:22:26 PMTo me, a reasonably set line would be Marquette -1.5.
I'm seeing Marquette -2.5 on most sites, which is probably reflective of the injuries.
Gard owns Shaka, period.
There is absolutely nothing as delicious as Scoop after our annual loss to Wisconsin, it is like an early Xmas gift. Let's get the loss out of the way, enjoy the scoop aftermath, and then continue to work towards a protected seed.
Quote from: PJDunn on December 06, 2024, 10:56:32 AMThere is absolutely nothing as delicious as Scoop after our annual loss to Wisconsin, it is like an early Xmas gift. Let's get the loss out of the way, enjoy the scoop aftermath, and then continue to work towards a protected seed.
The worst part of a loss this year wouldn't be the effect on Marquette's resume. It would be at the end of the year when it's the reason wisconsin is a protected seed in milwaukee.
Quote from: MUpugnacity on December 06, 2024, 10:59:28 AMThe worst part of a loss this year wouldn't be the effect on Marquette's resume. It would be at the end of the year when it's the reason wisconsin is a protected seed in milwaukee.
A lot would have to go right for them for that to be in play.
Quote from: MUpugnacity on December 06, 2024, 10:59:28 AMThe worst part of a loss this year wouldn't be the effect on Marquette's resume. It would be at the end of the year when it's the reason wisconsin is a protected seed in milwaukee.
Lol. They already have a home loss to the team predicted to finish 9th in the B1G. They aren't getting a high enough seed to play in Milwaukee.
Quote from: wadesworld on December 05, 2024, 08:26:12 PMIt appears viper has been welcomed back just in time for his favorite subject. And boy is he taking advantage.
would you expect any less? 😂
Quote from: The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole on December 05, 2024, 08:02:25 PMWell what have you added? Outside of your "beat your rival" nonsense.
UW plays a style that is difficult for Marquette to function against offensively. But we will be at home and if we hit our shots we will win. Not much to break down here.
I think we'll shoot better than at Iowa State...and I'm excited for what our freshmen can do tomorrow. This is Red's first true road game. We've played a tougher schedule to date. Don't let some no-name hack light us up for 25 and we should be fine. Close game, but Shaka gets the W tomorrow.
Quote from: Viper on December 06, 2024, 11:37:42 AMI think we'll shoot better than at Iowa State...and I'm excited for what our freshmen can do tomorrow. This is their first true road game. We've played tougher schedule to date. Don't let some no-name hack light us up for 25 and we should be fine. Close game, but Shaka gets the W tomorrow.
I agree with you on every point! Yay!
If we can get past their chest up and grab action. They have used this the last 2 years very successfully for wins.....
Quote from: wadesworld on December 06, 2024, 11:28:16 AMLol. They already have a home loss to the team predicted to finish 9th in the B1G. They aren't getting a high enough seed to play in Milwaukee.
Michigan isn't finishing 9th in the B1G.
They darn near 30-pieced Xavier.
Quote from: GoldenEagles03 on December 06, 2024, 12:44:48 PMMichigan isn't finishing 9th in the B1G.
They darn near 30-pieced Xavier.
And lost to Wake Forest.
You had Wisconsin "easily top 2 in the B1G," so obviously you don't think the team that just beat them on the road is 9th in the B1G. I trust the head coaches that coach in that conference a bit more than your judgement.
Quote from: wadesworld on December 06, 2024, 12:53:57 PMAnd lost to Wake Forest.
You had Wisconsin "easily top 2 in the B1G," so obviously you don't think the team that just beat them on the road is 9th in the B1G. I trust the head coaches that coach in that conference a bit more than your judgement.
I do think they are easily top 2. 1 game doesn't change that.
Quote from: wadesworld on December 06, 2024, 12:53:57 PMAnd lost to Wake Forest.
You had Wisconsin "easily top 2 in the B1G," so obviously you don't think the team that just beat them on the road is 9th in the B1G. I trust the head coaches that coach in that conference a bit more than your judgement.
I wouldn't trust the head coaches in the conference much in the transfer era. Michigan has a new coach and mostly new roster. The coaches had no idea what Michigan was going to be. I'd put more faith in where they are in the efficiency models because it's a better indicator of what teams actually are. FWIW Michigan is second in the B10 in kenpom & fourth in T-Rank sorted to this year only. Either way probably better than where the B10 coaches put them when they didn't know where to put them.
Quote from: wadesworld on December 06, 2024, 12:53:57 PMAnd lost to Wake Forest.
You had Wisconsin "easily top 2 in the B1G," so obviously you don't think the team that just beat them on the road is 9th in the B1G. I trust the head coaches that coach in that conference a bit more than your judgement.
In his defense, I seem to recall another team that was predicted to finish 9th in their league before winning the regular season title and conference championship.
Dusty May is in his first year coaching at Michigan. His record was 0-0 when the poll was done. The other B1G coaches had exactly zero clue as to how well he would or wouldn't do.
Quote from: wadesworld on December 06, 2024, 11:28:16 AMLol. They already have a home loss to the team predicted to finish 9th in the B1G. They aren't getting a high enough seed to play in Milwaukee.
Agree WI won't have a high enough seed to play in Milwaukee, but I'd be shocked if MI doesn't end up far better than 9th in the Big Ten. Those two big guys are a problem.
Quote from: GoldenEagles03 on December 06, 2024, 12:58:02 PMI do think they are easily top 2. 1 game doesn't change that.
Not just top 2 - which woulda been a bold enough prediction - but "EASILY" top 2. Ya gotta love it.
But hey, your heroes did find a way to finish easily in the top 2 on Tuesday at the Kohl Hole!
As for you predicting a Madison win over Marquette tomorrow, well done. If your guys win, you can pretend to wish it didn't happen but say "I told you so." And if your guys lose, you can pretend to be happy you were wrong.
Win-win for you!
Quote from: MU82 on December 06, 2024, 01:50:22 PMNot just top 2 - which woulda been a bold enough prediction - but "EASILY" top 2. Ya gotta love it.
But hey, your heroes did find a way to finish easily in the top 2 on Tuesday at the Kohl Hole!
As for you predicting a Madison win over Marquette tomorrow, well done. If your guys win, you can pretend to wish it didn't happen but say "I told you so." And if your guys lose, you can pretend to be happy you were wrong.
Win-win for you!
That has nothing to do with it. I just think they have the advantage being healthy and their style of play is one that we have yet to figure out.
Not much more to it than that. There doesn't need to be an I told you so.
They are good. We are good.
Quote from: GoldenEagles03 on December 06, 2024, 02:16:33 PMThat has nothing to do with it. I just think they have the advantage being healthy and their style of play is one that we have yet to figure out.
Not much more to it than that. There doesn't need to be an I told you so.
They are good. We are good.
Good thing is they don't play anything like a typical Madison team this year.
Quote from: wadesworld on December 06, 2024, 02:30:31 PMGood thing is they don't play anything like a typical Madison team this year.
This.
Despite how pessimistic my post may have sounded, this is exactly what's convinced me we're going to win anyway. That, and the feeling Kam is about to have another legacy game.
Quote from: burger on December 06, 2024, 11:59:50 AMIf we can get past their chest up and grab action. They have used this the last 2 years very successfully for wins.....
RED will try to slow us down, force us out in the half court. I think Kam, Owens and Parnham will wheel deal! Stevie probably draws their guy Tonjie(sp). Stevie will be the best defender he's faced. Hold him in check for the win.
Quote from: Viper on December 06, 2024, 03:04:29 PMRED will try to slow us down, force us out in the half court. I think Kam, Owens and Parnham will wheel deal! Stevie probably draws their guy Tonjie(sp). Stevie will be the best defender he's faced. Hold him in check for the win.
Might be the opposite.
UW has turned up their offense this year but they still take care of the ball. I expect they try and get Kam in foul trouble by running up and down a bit.
Marquette might not have the bodies to maintain a faster pace for 40 minutes.
Quote from: GoldenEagles03 on December 06, 2024, 12:58:02 PMI do think they are easily top 2. 1 game doesn't change that.
It's just an insane take though. Look at the 18 team big 10 and tell me which 16 they are finishing in front of. They are good. They are a tournament team. They may beat us tomorrow. They will lose at least 7 big ten games.
Quote from: GoldenEagles03 on December 06, 2024, 03:12:46 PMMight be the opposite.
UW has turned up their offense this year but they still take care of the ball.
Tonje has had four games with 3 turnovers and another with 4. That's awfully loose with the ball for a college "kid" who is the same age as the average Oklahoma Thunder player. Blackwell had 5 turnovers against Michigan, and 3 two games before that. That's a lot for a PG who "takes care of the ball."
I mean, you might be right that your guys will beat Marquette to give you Scoop bragging rights, but at least get your facts right.
Quote from: MU82 on December 06, 2024, 05:56:35 PMTonje has had four games with 3 turnovers and another with 4. That's awfully loose with the ball for a college "kid" who is the same age as the average Oklahoma Thunder player. Blackwell had 5 turnovers against Michigan, and 3 two games before that. That's a lot for a PG who "takes care of the ball."
I mean, you might be right that your guys will beat Marquette to give you Scoop bragging rights, but at least get your facts right.
Hate to burst your bubble but he actually
did get his facts right.
According to the NCAA's official site, Wisconsin is currently tied for 13th in averaging the least turnovers per game this season (source (https://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-men/d1/current/team/217)). I've seen other sources that rank them even higher.
Quote from: K1 Lover on December 06, 2024, 06:11:29 PMHate to burst your bubble but he actually did get his facts right.
According to the NCAA's official site, Wisconsin is currently tied for 13th in averaging the least turnovers per game this season (source (https://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-men/d1/current/team/217)). I've seen other sources that rank them even higher.
Yup!
Right in the same range as Marquette. Two teams that like to score, two teams that don't turn it over often.
Marquette's advantage is that they turn the opponent over at a well above average clip...without Chase, that is very very difficult to do.
Quote from: K1 Lover on December 06, 2024, 06:11:29 PMHate to burst your bubble but he actually did get his facts right.
According to the NCAA's official site, Wisconsin is currently tied for 13th in averaging the least turnovers per game this season (source (https://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-men/d1/current/team/217)). I've seen other sources that rank them even higher.
Their guards have had lots of games in which they've been loose with the basketball - including the last one, when they combined for 8 give-aways in losing as a home favorite. It's their first true road game where they (hopefully) won't get the favorable whistle. And, even without Ross, we aren't App State or Chicago State or UCF or Montana State or Holy Cross or even UT-Rio Grande Valley.
Those are the facts.
Quote from: MU82 on December 06, 2024, 09:11:17 PMTheir guards have had lots of games in which they've been loose with the basketball - including the last one, when they combined for 8 give-aways in losing as a home favorite. It's their first true road game where they (hopefully) won't get the favorable whistle. And, even without Ross, we aren't App State or Chicago State or UCF or Montana State or Holy Cross or even UT-Rio Grande Valley.
Those are the facts.
I'm surprised WI is ranked as high as they are, actually. Their AZ win has grown mold. They did beat a decent Pitt team, albeit on neutral court. Lost to Michigan on home court. Their Kenpom has dropped back of late. We bring it tomorrow like we did vs Purdue, I have no doubt we'll win.
Quote from: MU82 on December 06, 2024, 09:11:17 PMTheir guards have had lots of games in which they've been loose with the basketball - including the last one, when they combined for 8 give-aways in losing as a home favorite. It's their first true road game where they (hopefully) won't get the favorable whistle. And, even without Ross, we aren't App State or Chicago State or UCF or Montana State or Holy Cross or even UT-Rio Grande Valley.
Those are the facts.
It's a valid point. I think you're both objectively right. Up until now Wisconsin has averaged fewer turnovers than most other teams, though it's possible they've just been playing against opponents that are poor at forcing turnovers. I don't have access to advanced analytics so unfortunately I can't look that up. But it'd be a small sample size anyway so perhaps this can't even be answered appropriately until mid-season.
As for Chase, it looks like he's going to play tomorrow. MUBB just posted this (https://www.instagram.com/p/DDQmiLKNrRX/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link&igsh=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==); I can't imagine he'd be in a practice jersey if he wasn't planning on playing. Let's hope he has the same sprained-ankle performance Kolek had last year at Illinois.
Quote from: Viper on December 06, 2024, 09:47:49 PMI'm surprised WI is ranked as high as they are, actually. Their AZ win has grown mold. They did beat a decent Pitt team, albeit on neutral court. Lost to Michigan on home court. Their Kenpom has dropped back of late. We bring it tomorrow like we did vs Purdue, I have no doubt we'll win.
I watched the Pitt game. One of Pitt's starters was injured in the second minute. Hard to say if that might've been the difference.
Quote from: K1 Lover on December 06, 2024, 09:50:22 PMIt's a valid point. I think you're both objectively right. Up until now Wisconsin has averaged fewer turnovers than most other teams, though it's possible they've just been playing against opponents that are poor at forcing turnovers. I don't have access to advanced analytics so unfortunately I can't look that up. But it'd be a small sample size anyway so perhaps this can't even be answered appropriately until mid-season.
As for Chase, it looks like he's going to play tomorrow. MUBB just posted this (https://www.instagram.com/p/DDQmiLKNrRX/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link&igsh=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==); I can't imagine he'd be in a practice jersey if he wasn't planning on playing. Let's hope he has the same sprained-ankle performance Kolek had last year at Illinois.
I mean, Sean Jones is also in a practice jersey and he's definitely not playing. Chase might play, glad to see he's not in a boot, but the practice jersey doesn't mean anything
Hopefully we'll see Zaide and Chase against Dayton a week from today. Glad their injuries do not appear long term, but seems too early to expect or be optimistic to have either today already.
Edit: see Rothstein already reported no Zaide today.
Quote from: TAMU, Knower of Ball on December 07, 2024, 07:08:03 AMI mean, Sean Jones is also in a practice jersey and he's definitely not playing. Chase might play, glad to see he's not in a boot, but the practice jersey doesn't mean anything
I agree that a practice jersey isn't definitive. But in most cases, if you're capable of participating in a full-speed 5v5 at practice, you're probably capable of playing a game too. And in this specific case, there's a precedent for one of our guys playing a full game despite having an ankle injury.
Regarding Sean, Shaka has publicly stated that the reason he hasn't returned yet is far more of a psychological reason than it is physical. Based on the photos and what Shaka has said to the media, it seems that Sean has is completely recovered physically. It's fully overcoming the mental trauma associated with knee injuries that he's still working on. Plus, Sean has been out of practice for almost a year; it makes sense that he's practicing but not entering games yet.
I wouldn't put much stake in that at all. He could be at practice and moving at 50%. He could just be testing it. They could have posted it to get UW thinking he might play.
We will know soon. Patience is a virtue.
Huh ... 16 turnovers for Madison, 5 for us. Who could have ever foreseen that?
We Are Marquette!
Quote from: wisblue on December 05, 2024, 07:34:22 PMI think you can throw the projections like Torvik and KenPom out the window unless they can somehow account for injuries. Not having Lowrey and Ross completely changes MU's style and takes away its biggest strength: the pressure defense.
I note that MU had 2 fast break points last night compared to 19 against Purdue. Take away the points off live ball turnovers and MU is reduced to a half court offense heavily dependent on 3 point shots. I think they'll have to hit at least 40% of their 3's to win Saturday.
With all due respect Blue, most of your analysis was way off with this one. And it's wasn't just about Chase suiting up or not. MU is the better team, and we have been despite the results the past 4 years. You totally neglected our ability to control tempo and having tbe best player on the floor among other things.
Quote from: Viper on December 06, 2024, 09:47:49 PMI'm surprised WI is ranked as high as they are, actually. Their AZ win has grown mold. They did beat a decent Pitt team, albeit on neutral court. Lost to Michigan on home court. Their Kenpom has dropped back of late. We bring it tomorrow like we did vs Purdue, I have no doubt we'll win.
Pretty spot on Viper.
Quote from: wadesworld on December 05, 2024, 06:42:51 PMWisconsin is not as good as you are giving them credit for. My only concern is injuries. If Chase is out then yes, it'll be tough. But this will not be one of our most impressive wins if him and Ben both play. We're the home team and the better team. Take care of business.
Extremely glad my concerns ended up being non-issues. We are a
great team — emphasis on the "we are".
Lesson learned. I'll never doubt the wisdom of Scoop again. From now I'll be deferring all personal judgements to wadesworld.
GoldenEagles03 and wisblue are a couple of wieners.
Quote from: Vander Blue Man Group on December 07, 2024, 05:51:17 PMGoldenEagles03 and wisblue are a couple of wieners.
GE03 is. Wisblue is a little pessimistic but he's alright.
Quote from: Vander Blue Man Group on December 07, 2024, 05:51:17 PMGoldenEagles03 and wisblue are a couple of wieners.
Wisblue Im pretty sure just intentionally is 100% pessimistic as some sort of fear of jinx. Wouldn't pay much mind
GE legit might take bath salts regularly.
Having seen both teams against Marquette and having seen both teams also play other opponents, it sure looks like Maryland is better than Madison.
Which I guess would make Maryland pretty easily the best team in the B18.
Quote from: MU82 on December 07, 2024, 06:16:33 PMHaving seen both teams against Marquette and having seen both teams also play other opponents, it sure looks like Maryland is better than Madison.
Which I guess would make Maryland pretty easily the best team in the B18.
No idea who the best team in the B10 is, but UW is the worse of the three we played. They had literally zero answers in the second half minus klesmit bombs. We were better at every position.
MU is 3-0 in the Big10whatever.
Quote from: BM1090 on December 07, 2024, 06:24:06 PMNo idea who the best team in the B10 is, but UW is the worse of the three we played. They had literally zero answers in the second half minus klesmit bombs. We were better at every position.
Hopefully Purdue and Wisconsin find a way to finish near the top so they become Q1 wins. The Maryland win is going to age exceptionally well regardless but I'll root for them anyway b/c Darryl Morsell difference. 😎
Quote from: MU82 on December 06, 2024, 09:11:17 PMTheir guards have had lots of games in which they've been loose with the basketball - including the last one, when they combined for 8 give-aways in losing as a home favorite. It's their first true road game where they (hopefully) won't get the favorable whistle. And, even without Ross, we aren't App State or Chicago State or UCF or Montana State or Holy Cross or even UT-Rio Grande Valley.
Those are the facts.
good call, 82. RED had a lot of TO's today thx to our D.
Quote from: PGsHeroes32 on December 07, 2024, 06:05:54 PMWisblue Im pretty sure just intentionally is 100% pessimistic as some sort of fear of jinx. Wouldn't pay much mind
GE legit might take bath salts regularly.
That could be right.
Quote from: BM1090 on December 07, 2024, 06:24:06 PMNo idea who the best team in the B10 is, but UW is the worse of the three we played. They had literally zero answers in the second half minus klesmit bombs. We were better at every position.
Gard blows