MUScoop

Lots of carnage in front of us during feast week - but now it's our turn for the gauntlet. Is hosting Butler as #1 in our own destiny - or do the others need to drop one? Very likely we'll come to Butler having played 3-straight against T-25 opponents - including 2 on the road - that's an exceedingly tough stretch of basketball - I think you'd be hard pressed to say we're not #1 if we win them all.

Making it out the other end 4-0 would result in us having either the best or second-best resume in the country (behind Auburn).

We still wouldn't be #1, however, unless Kansas and Auburn both lost. The AP Poll almost never moves a top-ranked team down unless they lose.

After seeing a lot of the top teams playing in the tournaments, I have questions about how MU will stand up to the fast and almost frantic paces set by Iowa State and Dayton, especially on their home courts.

 I don't think MU can win those games without solid contributions from the bench. Between pace and foul problems it's going to be hard to count on 35 minutes from the starters.

Hopefully they can keep old man Tonje from getting 50 FT attempts and take care of the Badgers.

I voted 2-2, and if they can do that they will still be solid top 25 and well positioned for the conference season.

Even if we go 4-0, Kansas ain't losing until 2025.

Quote from: wisblue on November 28, 2024, 06:24:42 AMAfter seeing a lot of the top teams playing in the tournaments, I have questions about how MU will stand up to the fast and almost frantic paces set by Iowa State and Dayton, especially on their home courts.

 I don't think MU can win those games without solid contributions from the bench. Between pace and foul problems it's going to be hard to count on 35 minutes from the starters.

Hopefully they can keep old man Tonje from getting 50 FT attempts and take care of the Badgers.

I voted 2-2, and if they can do that they will still be solid top 25 and well positioned for the conference season.

I look forward to your posts, and yet I also dread them because they are always stone-cold realism. The one advantage I see for Marquette in the two road games is that Shaka has enough time to analyze the Maui game tapes, create his game plans, and drill the guys on those plans. I hope no one here stupidly posts COLE in response to your post. It is simply a wake-up call.   

Shaka has been game planning against top 25 teams routinely since being at MU and before that at Texas.  This is what he and MU want with an experienced and talented starting 5. I think we go 3-1.  Hard to win at Ames.  I don't expect a blowout. Would only be mildly surprised if we win.  I think we take Wisconsin and Dayton.  Should be fun!

Quote from: wisblue on November 28, 2024, 06:24:42 AMAfter seeing a lot of the top teams playing in the tournaments, I have questions about how MU will stand up to the fast and almost frantic paces set by Iowa State and Dayton, especially on their home courts.

 I don't think MU can win those games without solid contributions from the bench. Between pace and foul problems it's going to be hard to count on 35 minutes from the starters.

Hopefully they can keep old man Tonje from getting 50 FT attempts and take care of the Badgers.

I voted 2-2, and if they can do that they will still be solid top 25 and well positioned for the conference season.

We haven't played anyone that can pressure the ball like we do and really likes an up and down game.  Iowa St. at Hilton is going to be a huge challenge.  Kam being swarmed is something I think we should expect, so as you said we're going to need many to contribute.  The other potential issue is the defensive glass.  The Clones are just really good, it's going to take our A game to beat them in Ames.  We need to match their physicality and win the turnover battle. 

Quote from: Shooter McGavin on November 28, 2024, 08:51:11 AMShaka has been game planning against top 25 teams routinely since being at MU and before that at Texas.  This is what he and MU want with an experienced and talented starting 5. I think we go 3-1.  Hard to win at Ames.  I don't expect a blowout. Would only be mildly surprised if we win.  I think we take Wisconsin and Dayton.  Should be fun!

As far as game planning Iowa St, Lipsey can go brick city and be anemic on the offensive end.  Shaka will have a few things up his sleeve. 

I think the biggest key for ISU is weathering the first 10 minutes of the halves. We saw how they swarmed Auburn early and seemed to be running away with it, but couldn't keep up their defensive pressure & didn't have the shot making to keep up when Auburn got on a roll. Survive their pressure when they have fresh legs and they are beatable, especially in their first game back from Maui.

I would honestly take 3-1 with going 2-1
In any combination against Dayton Wisconsin and Iowa state. I think Wisconsin is going to be a harder game than most think. I don't know how you stop Tonje

Quote from: 1SE on November 28, 2024, 02:32:17 AMVery likely we'll come to Butler having played 3-straight against T-25 opponents - including 2 on the road - that's an exceedingly tough stretch of basketball

I doubt that UD will be ranked when we play them.  They are unranked now and just lost two (close) games in Maui, and the win was against UConn who went 0-3 and may/will drop out of the rankings themselves. 

They then have two cupcakes next week before playing us.  Not enough to move the needle IMO.

That said, it is going to be a hard game regardless if they are ranked, and won't be surprised if we lose.  Their close losses in Maui will mean they'll still be hungry to bolster their resume.

Quote from: brewcity77 on November 28, 2024, 09:00:09 AMI think the biggest key for ISU is weathering the first 10 minutes of the halves. We saw how they swarmed Auburn early and seemed to be running away with it, but couldn't keep up their defensive pressure & didn't have the shot making to keep up when Auburn got on a roll. Survive their pressure when they have fresh legs and they are beatable, especially in their first game back from Maui.

Curious, we all know the Maui hangover is a real thing. But does it extend to a full week out? Cause they do have good amount of time to get it back in the flow.

If the game was Sunday I'd feel better about Maui hangover. Uconn playing Saturday seems insane, even if its a horrid opponent.

Quote from: brewcity77 on November 28, 2024, 09:00:09 AMI think the biggest key for ISU is weathering the first 10 minutes of the halves. We saw how they swarmed Auburn early and seemed to be running away with it, but couldn't keep up their defensive pressure & didn't have the shot making to keep up when Auburn got on a roll. Survive their pressure when they have fresh legs and they are beatable, especially in their first game back from Maui.

Excellent point Brew.  I also think Ben hitting the 3 changes how they can defend us. 

Quote from: HowardsWorld on November 28, 2024, 09:14:41 AMI would honestly take 3-1 with going 2-1
In any combination against Dayton Wisconsin and Iowa state. I think Wisconsin is going to be a harder game than most think. I don't know how you stop Tonje

I can stop Tonje.  :)

In all seriousness he's a very tough cover.  We can't foul like crazy, I can tell you that much. 

Quote from: HowardsWorld on November 28, 2024, 09:14:41 AMI would honestly take 3-1 with going 2-1
In any combination against Dayton Wisconsin and Iowa state. I think Wisconsin is going to be a harder game than most think. I don't know how you stop Tonje

I hope it's not harder than I think because I already think it's going to be hard.

The Badgers always seem to be inspired playing here and MU doesn't get its usual home crowd advantage.

3-1 with one of the wins being against the Badgers would be wonderful.

I'm willing to stake my claim that we will beat ISU

If Jop gets his 1,000th career point in that game

While I know it's probably unrealistic to think we go 3-0 against ISU/Madison/UD, I will go into each individual game expecting our guys to win.

But if I knew today that we'd win 2 of the 3, I'd be pretty damn content with that.


Call me Ol' King COLE, but we're not gonna go 40-0.

Quote from: brewcity77 on November 28, 2024, 07:37:37 AMEven if we go 4-0, Kansas ain't losing until 2025.

When was the last time a #1 lost the spot without losing? I'd have to say 10-0 w true road wins @ISU, @MD and @UD along with PU and UW wins would be a more impressive resume than KUs at that point, especially if Creighton keeps sh*tting the bed.

1SE, I enjoy your polls, but you always add something to the options that makes it impossible to pick. If we go 4-0, we still probably aren't #1. Especially when you add "no matter what KU and Auburn do". If all three win out,  we're #3

Quote from: wisblue on November 28, 2024, 06:24:42 AMAfter seeing a lot of the top teams playing in the tournaments, I have questions about how MU will stand up to the fast and almost frantic paces set by Iowa State and Dayton, especially on their home courts.

 I don't think MU can win those games without solid contributions from the bench. Between pace and foul problems it's going to be hard to count on 35 minutes from the starters.

Hopefully they can keep old man Tonje from getting 50 FT attempts and take care of the Badgers.

I voted 2-2, and if they can do that they will still be solid top 25 and well positioned for the conference season.

Iowa State, I agree. Dayton, their defense didn't impress me,  I think we will score pretty easily. But that offense is legit. If they're hitting threes, they will be hard to stop.  Luckily,  we have an elite defense. Will be a good fight

Quote from: MuggsyB on November 28, 2024, 08:55:36 AMWe haven't played anyone that can pressure the ball like we do and really likes an up and down game.  Iowa St. at Hilton is going to be a huge challenge.  Kam being swarmed is something I think we should expect, so as you said we're going to need many to contribute.  The other potential issue is the defensive glass.  The Clones are just really good, it's going to take our A game to beat them in Ames.  We need to match their physicality and win the turnover battle. 

We're a top 150 defensive rebounding team.  Iowa State is a bottom 150 offensive rebounding team.  There are concerns against Iowa St, defensive rounding isn't high on that list.

Quote from: MU82 on November 28, 2024, 11:17:31 AMWhile I know it's probably unrealistic to think we go 3-0 against ISU/Madison/UD, I will go into each individual game expecting our guys to win.

But if I knew today that we'd win 2 of the 3, I'd be pretty damn content with that.


Call me Ol' King COLE, but we're not gonna go 40-0.

That's where I'm at. Marquette looked fantastic vs. Purdue, but taking that one game and projecting a 3-0 sweep? 'Love it if it happens, but we are playing 2 teams on their home courts that just put on quite a show in Maui. No COLE. Not by any stretch. But....3-0 as doable? Hell yes!

Quote from: MuggsyB on November 28, 2024, 10:17:54 AMI can stop Tonje.  :)

In all seriousness he's a very tough cover.  We can't foul like crazy, I can tell you that much. 

Fortunately, I think Iowa State is the perfect practice game to play right before Wisconsin since their leading scorer, Keshon Gilbert, is essentially a carbon copy of John Tonje. He's exceptionally good at driving to the basket, finishing, and drawing fouls.

If we manage to contain Gilbert, I'll feel fairly optimistic about the Wisconsin game. But If we don't, we should still walk away with a lesson or two that'll help prepare us for a player like Tonje.

Taking out the western Carolina game........if I did my math correctly (never a sure thing) according to Pomeroy our chances of winning all 3 games is 9.5%.

So in the same neighborhood as an inside straight draw..........

Quote from: TAMU, Knower of Ball on November 28, 2024, 12:01:43 PM1SE, I enjoy your polls, but you always add something to the options that makes it impossible to pick. If we go 4-0, we still probably aren't #1. Especially when you add "no matter what KU and Auburn do". If all three win out,  we're #3

IDK - we'd have a pretty good resume but I agree its wishful thinking - actually I think Auburn is harder to leapfrog than KU - if Auburn is 11-0 on December 18th they're almost certainly #1 even if both us and KU are undefeated.

Quote from: K1 Lover on November 28, 2024, 12:57:05 PMFortunately, I think Iowa State is the perfect practice game to play right before Wisconsin since their leading scorer, Keshon Gilbert, is essentially a carbon copy of John Tonje. He's exceptionally good at driving to the basket, finishing, and drawing fouls.

If we manage to contain Gilbert, I'll feel fairly optimistic about the Wisconsin game. But If we don't, we should still walk away with a lesson or two that'll help prepare us for a player like Tonje.

I'm sooo glad that Chucky Hepburn is at Louisville. He did to Indiana and WV what he did to us-sunk 'em. Thank God we do not have to deal with him.



 

Quote from: PGsHeroes32 on November 28, 2024, 09:34:35 AMCurious, we all know the Maui hangover is a real thing. But does it extend to a full week out? Cause they do have good amount of time to get it back in the flow.

I'm glad we're their first opponent, but looking through the past it does seem like some of it might be anecdotal. I'd be interested to see a deeper dive about post-MTE trips on the whole, but here are a few I found of about a week in the past few tournaments in Hawaii (2020-2021 no island tourney):

• 2023: 8 days post Maui, UCLA was favored by 19 vs UC Riverside and won by 1.
• 2022: 8 days post Maui, Arizona was favored by 6 at Utah and lost by 15.
• 2022: 6 days post Maui, SDSU was favored by 13 vs UC Irvine and won by 3.
• 2019: 6 days post Maui, Michigan St was favored by 5 vs Duke and lost by 12.

Quote from: brewcity77 on November 29, 2024, 09:22:04 PMI'm glad we're their first opponent, but looking through the past it does seem like some of it might be anecdotal. I'd be interested to see a deeper dive about post-MTE trips on the whole, but here are a few I found of about a week in the past few tournaments in Hawaii (2020-2021 no island tourney):

• 2023: 8 days post Maui, UCLA was favored by 19 vs UC Riverside and won by 1.
• 2022: 8 days post Maui, Arizona was favored by 6 at Utah and lost by 15.
• 2022: 6 days post Maui, SDSU was favored by 13 vs UC Irvine and won by 3.
• 2019: 6 days post Maui, Michigan St was favored by 5 vs Duke and lost by 12.

How about Greg Elliott saving our asses against Eastern Illinois when MU returned from Maui in 2017? 

Quote from: brewcity77 on November 29, 2024, 09:22:04 PMI'm glad we're their first opponent, but looking through the past it does seem like some of it might be anecdotal. I'd be interested to see a deeper dive about post-MTE trips on the whole, but here are a few I found of about a week in the past few tournaments in Hawaii (2020-2021 no island tourney):

• 2023: 8 days post Maui, UCLA was favored by 19 vs UC Riverside and won by 1.
• 2022: 8 days post Maui, Arizona was favored by 6 at Utah and lost by 15.
• 2022: 6 days post Maui, SDSU was favored by 13 vs UC Irvine and won by 3.
• 2019: 6 days post Maui, Michigan St was favored by 5 vs Duke and lost by 12.

How does this relate to your point about surviving their likely first punch?   Are you expecting rust on their end?  Ty.