The first bids have been given out (congratulations Morehead State, Stetson, Longwood, and Drake), there are more to come today, and the big boy conference tournaments start tomorrow. Championship Week is here. Today we go conference by conference to point out the most likely bid thieves as well as which teams can help Marquette's case when it comes to ironing down their seed. We also have an updated S-Curve and bracket. The Madness is here!
Championship Week (https://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2024/03/bracketology-championship-week.html)
Thanks, brew.
Very good, like the "who to root for". Something I think about sometimes but never take the energy to figure out. This is about as good as it gets.
Thanks
Awesome guide, thanks for sharing
Good stuff as usual, brew. I second FWE's thanks for the rooting guide.
Totally agree that Marquette can take care of its important business by beating Nova and Creighton. Do that, and I think most Scoopers will like both our NCAAT seed and venue.
Thanks Brew. MSU again in second round? Oh boy.
Thanks brewcity. Always awesome analysis and appreciate it.
You may be spot on with this, but giving MSU Indy and Detroit would be one of the biggest jokes I've ever seen. I'm sure MU would like another crack at them though.
Brew,
How do they go about seeding bid stealers? Where do you place them?
San Francisco would technically be a bid stealer but they are a pretty good team that plays in a solid league. I assume they'd get an 11 or 12?
Quote from: GoldenEagles03 on March 11, 2024, 10:57:05 PM
Brew,
How do they go about seeding bid stealers? Where do you place them?
San Francisco would technically be a bid stealer but they are a pretty good team that plays in a solid league. I assume they'd get an 11 or 12?
They seed the same way they seed every other team, put them on the s-curve.
Looking at San Francisco's resume, they would clearly be below Drake. I think I would put them below James Madison too who is probably the second best auto-bid at this point. Given that, they would probably end up on the 12 seed line or lower, where exactly would depend on the quality of the other auto-bids.
Quote from: TAMU, Knower of Ball on March 11, 2024, 11:07:31 PM
They seed the same way they seed every other team, put them on the s-curve.
Looking at San Francisco's resume, they would clearly be below Drake. I think I would put them below James Madison too who is probably the second best auto-bid at this point. Given that, they would probably end up on the 12 seed line or lower, where exactly would depend on the quality of the other auto-bids.
IIRC, Georgetown entered the 2020-2021 Big East Tournament with a sub .500 overall record and still got a 12 seed after winning it. That along with seeing San Fran on TV for the 1st time, sparked my question.
As someone who lived in San Francisco, you are not allowed to use the terms San Fran or Frisco. SF is tolerable but most refer to it as the city or San Francisco.
Lecture over....go MU!!
Quote from: GoldenEagles03 on March 11, 2024, 11:54:28 PM
IIRC, Georgetown entered the 2020-2021 Big East Tournament with a sub .500 overall record and still got a 12 seed after winning it. That along with seeing San Fran on TV for the 1st time, sparked my question.
They were .500 overall. They were in the top 75 of NET, had 3 Q1 wins, 5 Q2 wins, 2 Q3 losses (one was at home to Marquette, heyo!), and an SOS of 29.
Compare that to Ohio who was the top 13 seed that season. 88 NET, 1 Q1 win, 3 Q2 wins, 3 Q3 losses, and an SOS of 144.
Georgetown wasn't given special treatment, a 12 seed was just where they fell on the S-Curve. As much as we complain about bad Power Conference teams making the tourney, reality is, they have much better resumes than the top low majors....though if Georgetown or DePaul made it this year....different story.
Quote from: The Thing on March 12, 2024, 12:03:37 AM
As someone who lived in San Francisco, you are not allowed to use the terms San Fran or Frisco. SF is tolerable but most refer to it as the city or San Francisco.
Lecture over....go MU!!
Killa Kam's Court storming analogy: if you don't want your city name abbreviated, don't have such a long city name.
Quote from: The Thing on March 12, 2024, 12:03:37 AM
As someone who lived in San Francisco, you are not allowed to use the terms San Fran or Frisco. SF is tolerable but most refer to it as the city or San Francisco.
Lecture over....go MU!!
Hella!!!
Longwood has a long way to go, will they get stiffed?
Quote from: GoldenEagles03 on March 11, 2024, 10:57:05 PM
Brew,
How do they go about seeding bid stealers? Where do you place them?
San Francisco would technically be a bid stealer but they are a pretty good team that plays in a solid league. I assume they'd get an 11 or 12?
It varies by committee. I think Georgetown just got a 12 because they were Big East champs. Their resume deserved a 13/14. But then last year, Princeton upset Yale on Selection Sunday. It seemed likely the Tigers would just be given Yale's spot on the 12 line, but instead they were (deservedly) given a 15.
Personally, I build out my spreadsheet on Monday. I make small daily adjustments but already have the S-Curve built. On Wednesday, I start scrubbing. So I really closely compare the 1s & 2s, then Thursday morning the 3s & 4s, lines 5-10 that night, and on down to the 16s Friday.
Any time someone moves into a potential bid thief situation, I add them to the spreadsheet. I order teams by their RAP Score, which is the average of their Resume And Predictive averages. Typically, about 85% of teams are seeded within one line of where their RAP indicates they belong. So when a team like Stony Brook beats Charleston, I have a starting seeding point based on their RAP, then I compare quadrant results, SOS, head to head, and other team sheet factors to teams with a similar RAP to scrub them into the appropriate position.
Personally, I love bid thieves because it makes my job easier. If VCU wins the A10, I know they're getting in, and know Dayton is safe, so that's one less at-large team I can get wrong.
Quote from: The Thing on March 12, 2024, 12:03:37 AM
As someone who lived in San Francisco, you are not allowed to use the terms San Fran or Frisco. SF is tolerable but most refer to it as the city or San Francisco.
Lecture over....go MU!!
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GIb-KK4bMAAGmwj?format=jpg&name=900x900)
Quote from: JakeBarnes on March 12, 2024, 03:22:48 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GIb-KK4bMAAGmwj?format=jpg&name=900x900)
😂
Quote from: brewcity77 on March 12, 2024, 03:15:41 PM
It varies by committee. I think Georgetown just got a 12 because they were Big East champs. Their resume deserved a 13/14. But then last year, Princeton upset Yale on Selection Sunday. It seemed likely the Tigers would just be given Yale's spot on the 12 line, but instead they were (deservedly) given a 15.
Personally, I build out my spreadsheet on Monday. I make small daily adjustments but already have the S-Curve built. On Wednesday, I start scrubbing. So I really closely compare the 1s & 2s, then Thursday morning the 3s & 4s, lines 5-10 that night, and on down to the 16s Friday.
Any time someone moves into a potential bid thief situation, I add them to the spreadsheet. I order teams by their RAP Score, which is the average of their Resume And Predictive averages. Typically, about 85% of teams are seeded within one line of where their RAP indicates they belong. So when a team like Stony Brook beats Charleston, I have a starting seeding point based on their RAP, then I compare quadrant results, SOS, head to head, and other team sheet factors to teams with a similar RAP to scrub them into the appropriate position.
Personally, I love bid thieves because it makes my job easier. If VCU wins the A10, I know they're getting in, and know Dayton is safe, so that's one less at-large team I can get wrong.
Good to know!
Quote from: Newsdreams on March 12, 2024, 01:20:25 PM
Longwood has a long way to go, will they get stiffed?
Maybe, but we know it will be hard for them.