Today we look at potential landing spots for Marquette when the Selection Committee sets the bracket on March 17. There's one clear front runner, but if things go wrong, we talk about the other destinations to consider for the start of Spring Break.
By Land or By Air? (https://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2024/03/bracketology-by-land-or-by-air.html?m=1)
Quote from: brewcity77 on March 02, 2024, 09:07:26 AM
Today we look at potential landing spots for Marquette when the Selection Committee sets the bracket on March 17. There's one clear front runner, but if things go wrong, we talk about the other destinations to consider for the start of Spring Break.
By Land or By Air? (https://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2024/03/bracketology-by-land-or-by-air.html?m=1)
Thanks for this analysis and speculation. If MU does climb to a 1 seed, where would they likely end up? Not Indy, as they won't pass Purdue on the S-curve, so Omaha? No were else seems very appealing or satisfying for a 1 seed? Is it better be a 2 seed and play closer to home?
Quote from: brewcity77 on March 02, 2024, 09:07:26 AM
Today we look at potential landing spots for Marquette when the Selection Committee sets the bracket on March 17. There's one clear front runner, but if things go wrong, we talk about the other destinations to consider for the start of Spring Break.
By Land or By Air? (https://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2024/03/bracketology-by-land-or-by-air.html?m=1)
Would be insane for Northwestern or MSU to get their protected seed location as a 10 seed.
Quote from: mug644 on March 02, 2024, 10:03:35 AM
Thanks for this analysis and speculation. If MU does climb to a 1 seed, where would they likely end up? Not Indy, as they won't pass Purdue on the S-curve, so Omaha? No were else seems very appealing or satisfying for a 1 seed? Is it better be a 2 seed and play closer to home?
You could have 2 one seeds in the same location right? They would be in different regionals but same pod.
Quote from: mug644 on March 02, 2024, 10:03:35 AM
Thanks for this analysis and speculation. If MU does climb to a 1 seed, where would they likely end up? Not Indy, as they won't pass Purdue on the S-curve, so Omaha? No were else seems very appealing or satisfying for a 1 seed? Is it better be a 2 seed and play closer to home?
Two protected seeds will play in Indy. It could be two 1s, a 1 & 2, or any combination really.
1st weekend sites are no longer in predetermined regions. So Marquette could go Indy/Detroit or Indy/Dallas.
Quote from: Juan Anderson's Mixtape on March 02, 2024, 10:19:23 AM
Two protected seeds will play in Indy. It could be two 1s, a 1 & 2, or any combination really.
1st weekend sites are no longer in predetermined regions. So Marquette could go Indy/Detroit or Indy/Dallas.
If mu gets a 1 seed it's all but guaranteed to be Indy/los Angeles
Quote from: HowardsWorld on March 02, 2024, 10:22:14 AM
If mu gets a 1 seed it's all but guaranteed to be Indy/los Angeles
Yeah? That scenario includes 2 wins over UCONN and likely 2 wins over Creighton. Is there a reason they would automatically get the East over us?
Thanks all. I had forgotten that two 1s could be in the same site for the first weekend.
Quote from: HowardsWorld on March 02, 2024, 10:22:14 AM
If mu gets a 1 seed it's all but guaranteed to be Indy/los Angeles
With Kolek hurt, I'm not expecting to earn a 1 seed.
Ok ... guys ... let's get real.
MU has about a 0.01 chance of a one seed.
Quote from: HowardsWorld on March 02, 2024, 10:22:14 AM
If mu gets a 1 seed it's all but guaranteed to be Indy/los Angeles
This is correct.
Quote from: Mu8891 on March 02, 2024, 11:35:40 AM
Ok ... guys ... let's get real.
MU has about a 0.01 chance of a one seed.
If Marquette wins their next 3 and the BET, they'll most likely be a 1-seed, unless Tennessee does the same.
I just want them to be in a Friday/Sunday region because I have tickets for the Omaha games. 😊
One of the problems that I've noticed with the seeding process is that they try to keep all teams as close to home as possible.
You'd say well that's logical, why wouldn't you?
Logistically it makes things much easier for both teams and fan bases, crowds bigger, revenue better, etc.
That makes complete sense for the protected seeds, and gives them a competitive advantage in theory.
However, when the lower seed is a powerhouse in the 6-11 seed range and has a massive fan base, and is only several hours from campus, that presents a major competitive disadvantage for the protected seed in Round 2.
We've seen it time and time again, and fans then cry about having to essentially play a road game as a higher seed.
It's a fair argument, and the committee almost needs to consider sending lower seeds further away from home to make this aspect more fair.
They are bogged down with so many rules already though- keeping teams from playing another conference foe, can't play someone you've already played in the first few rounds, etc.
I'd imagine as long as the lower seeds aren't within the restricted distance they probably don't think twice about it, but maybe they should, even if it affects travel plans and crowd sizes.
Money is king though, so I'm sure it won't change
They try to balance the top-16 seeds so the regions have approximately equal top tier teams, but usually don't apply balance efforts until the 3/4 lines.
After that, it's regional preference to boost attendance.
Brew what do you think it'll take for Illinois or Creighton to pass us on the S Curve and bump us from Indy?
1- Marquette loses the next 3
2- Marquette loses 2 of the next 3 and either of those two win out until their Conf Tourney finals
3- Marquette loses to Creighton in the BET
Marquette gained 2 Q1 wins and sits at 8-6, Creighton now at 7-6, Illinois at 5-5.
Illini have Purdue at home on Tuesday.
It seems a bit of a closer race than I woulda thought it would be, but that's what happens when Creighton crushes UConn and Illinois wins in Madison.
This is the Marquette centric race that I'm looking at here down the stretch when it comes to seeding because I really want Indy- I think MU nation will travel well and really help the team out in those two games, and we wouldn't have that advantage in Pittsburgh or Brooklyn.
For one thing, Illinois hosts Purdue this week.
A win there would give them a big boost.
Creighton only has one more game before the BET (at Nova).
If MU loses to UConn (I won't say how likely I think that is) it would open the door for both teams to move up some more.
I like to think the fact that we beat Illinois in Champaign will mean something, but maybe not.
Counterbalanced by losing to a circling the drain Wisconsin team.
Quote from: MU82 on March 03, 2024, 08:43:23 AM
I like to think the fact that we beat Illinois in Champaign will mean something, but maybe not.
I think it might in a final scrubbing if the two teams end up next to each other on the initial seed list.
I will have to hold my nose and root for Purdue on Tuesday.
If MU does get placed in Indy I might drive down for the first game.
Quote from: wisblue on March 03, 2024, 08:39:12 AM
For one thing, Illinois hosts Purdue this week.
A win there would give them a big boost.
Creighton only has one more game before the BET (at Nova).
If MU loses to UConn (I won't say how likely I think that is) it would open the door for both teams to move up some more.
By the same token, if we beat UConn I think we're a lock for a 2 seed which should be enough for Indy.
It should also help that we are 2-1 against Illinois and Creighton, with the 1 loss being without our two best players. (And our win against Illinois was while they had Terrence Shannon before his suspension, rather than being a cheapy win without him)
Quote from: SaveOD238 on March 03, 2024, 08:50:05 AM
By the same token, if we beat UConn I think we're a lock for a 2 seed which should be enough for Indy.
It should also help that we are 2-1 against Illinois and Creighton, with the 1 loss being without our two best players. (And our win against Illinois was while they had Terrence Shannon before his suspension, rather than being a cheapy win without him)
I agree about MU beating UConn, but will still not say how likely I think that is.
My final decision on that is day to day.
Quote from: tower912 on March 03, 2024, 08:44:26 AM
Counterbalanced by losing to a circling the drain Wisconsin team.
Really? We beat Illinois in Champaign, and we'd be directly competing with Illinois for the Indianapolis slot.
Madison can enjoy whatever site their 8 seed is in.
MU gained 2 quad 1 wins overnight.......Texas and Nova both moved into top 30 of the Net.
Quote from: wisblue on March 03, 2024, 08:39:12 AM
For one thing, Illinois hosts Purdue this week.
A win there would give them a big boost.
Creighton only has one more game before the BET (at Nova).
If MU loses to UConn (I won't say how likely I think that is) it would open the door for both teams to move up some more.
I don't think losing to UConn hurts us much as you think it does.
Creighton and Illinois are likely 4 seeds right now. I don't think either have a chance to make all the way to a 2 with it being the last week of the regular season
Quote from: TAMU, Knower of Ball on March 03, 2024, 12:35:52 PM
I don't think losing to UConn hurts us much as you think it does.
Creighton and Illinois are likely 4 seeds right now. I don't think either have a chance to make all the way to a 2 with it being the last week of the regular season
I'm pretty sure they do, if one wins it's conference tournament.
We saw the exact scenario last year with Marquette, even though Marquette won the double so that was more obvious imo
Quote from: DoctorV on March 03, 2024, 12:45:21 PM
I'm pretty sure they do, if one wins it's conference tournament.
We saw the exact scenario last year with Marquette, even though Marquette won the double so that was more obvious imo
Marquette moved from the 2nd or third 3 seed to the last 2 seed at this point last season.
Right now, Marquette is the third 2 seed and both Creighton and illinois are likely on the 4 seed line, possibly 5 seed for Illinois. It's a much larger gap to make up. Theoretically possible, but i think it would take us losing out and them winning out.
People overestimate how much movement happens this late in the season
I also think the committee will not penalize MU much for losses without Kolek (and Oso). I think if Kolek comes back by the BET, they may not put as much stock in the last few games as if we were healthy.
Quote from: cheebs09 on March 03, 2024, 01:20:07 PM
I also think the committee will not penalize MU much for losses without Kolek (and Oso). I think if Kolek comes back by the BET, they may not put as much stock in the last few games as if we were healthy.
It's less a matter of penalizing MU than MU standing still or drifting back a little while other teams are improving their resumes.
I doubt if they "penalize" Creighton by discounting their win.
I don't think Creighton needs to win out or have MU lose out to pass MU on the seed list.
If Creighton wins its only remaining regular season game at Villanova and advances to the BET final that will probably be good enough.
I would reconsider this if MU shocks me and beats UConn without Kolek and who knows who else on the roster weakened from illness. I don't think a win at Xavier and/or in the first round win of the BET would be enough to keep MU ahead, especially since CU might have two recent head to head wins.
When I saw the announcement Kolek would be out until the BET, I honestly think that might be to encourage the Selection Committee to discount negative results without TKO. We are a solid 2-seed and even with a pair of Q1 losses should still be right in that mix. Every committee is different, so who knows if it will work, but I could see them ignoring our results, especially if we add at least one win this week and make the BET semis.
Kenyon Martin.
But if Kolek doesn't play in the BET, can the committee just look at MU's Tweet and say, "Well, it doesn't say he's missing the Tourney, so let's ignore the results without him..."?
I expect they'll announce he's back before the tourney.
Quote from: brewcity77 on March 04, 2024, 02:51:38 PM
I expect they'll announce he's back before the tourney.
This.
After our last game of the BET, whether Thu, Fri or Sat, they announce something like: "Tyler was held out of the Big East Tournament as a precaution and to let him finish healing. The Marquette medical staff expects Tyler to be a full participant in our NCAA Tournament games."
Quote from: brewcity77 on March 04, 2024, 02:21:28 PM
When I saw the announcement Kolek would be out until the BET, I honestly think that might be to encourage the Selection Committee to discount negative results without TKO. We are a solid 2-seed and even with a pair of Q1 losses should still be right in that mix. Every committee is different, so who knows if it will work, but I could see them ignoring our results, especially if we add at least one win this week and make the BET semis.
It might depend on whether they actually believe Kolek will play in NCAA tournament.
Look at how many games UW has lost recently, and they were still a 5 seed going into last weekend.
The worse I see MU being is a 3 seed. I think it is likely that more than one current 2 or 3 seed losses a game before the conference tournaments start.
We could be headed for a 2nd round matchup with UW Madison.
They seem to be hovering around the 6/7 line for most while we are 2 bordering a 3.
Quote from: GoldenEagles03 on March 05, 2024, 09:16:19 AM
We could be headed for a 2nd round matchup with UW Madison.
They seem to be hovering around the 6/7 line for most while we are 2 bordering a 3.
Doubtful that they would schedule a repeat of a regular season game if there are other options.
Quote from: GoldenEagles03 on March 05, 2024, 09:16:19 AM
We could be headed for a 2nd round matchup with UW Madison.
They seem to be hovering around the 6/7 line for most while we are 2 bordering a 3.
Extremely unlikely. They may end up a 6/7 and us a 2/3 but it would take a boatload of other conflicts for the committee to put two teams that played each other together for a round of 32 game.
Quote from: GoldenEagles03 on March 05, 2024, 09:16:19 AM
We could be headed for a 2nd round matchup with UW Madison.
They seem to be hovering around the 6/7 line for most while we are 2 bordering a 3.
Lolwut
If MU holds onto a 2 seed, it feels we're destined for the South. The Baylor/Iowa State/Kansas group should produce the last 2 seed, but can't be in the same region as Houston.
But if MU slips to a 3 seed, I think there's a great chance to end up in the Midwest. Not sure which scenario is more beneficial for MU.
Quote from: Juan Anderson's Mixtape on March 05, 2024, 10:04:50 AM
If MU holds onto a 2 seed, it feels we're destined for the South. The Baylor/Iowa State/Kansas group should produce the last 2 seed, but can't be in the same region as Houston.
But if MU slips to a 3 seed, I think there's a great chance to end up in the Midwest. Not sure which scenario is more beneficial for MU.
Yup. Can't decide which I prefer either.
Indy and then Midwest (Detroit) for proximity purposes, Purdue as the 1.
Hopefully still Indy (getting dicier) and then Dallas with Houston as the 1.
I keep getting this feeling that Purdue and Painter are sort of destined for a FF this year, so my first thought is that the South would be better. Then I realize that Houston has a historically good defense and would probably be a terrible matchup for Marquette despite their at times offensive ineptitude.
Then I also remember that Marquette has already proven it can hang with and likely beat Purdue despite Edey...
Maybe we just need to get Al Amadou more ready.
Quote from: DoctorV on March 05, 2024, 10:13:48 AM
Maybe we just need to get Al Amadou more ready.
That must be it. Shaka's been "hiding" him all season and will unleash when least expected ;D