Marquette starts the year at 11.
UConn at 4, Creighton at 12
UW-Madison at 20
I shall not sleep tonight.
Quote from: Uncle Rico on October 15, 2023, 04:40:19 PM
Marquette starts the year at 11.
UConn at 4, Creighton at 12
UW-Madison at 20
KenPom hates us.
KenPom Predicted Results for Marquette
Date Rk Opponent Result Tempo Est. Win % Location
Mon Nov 6 252 Northern Illinois W, 85-61 72 99% Home
Fri Nov 10 229 Rider W, 84-61 71 98% Home
Tue Nov 14 19 Illinois L, 74-73 73 44% Away
Mon Nov 20 26 UCLA W, 71-68 70 59% Neutral
Tue Nov 28 328 Southern W, 84-56 71 99.5% Home
Sat Dec 2 20 Wisconsin L, 70-68 69 44% Away
Wed Dec 6 16 Texas W, 74-70 72 65% Home
Sat Dec 9 165 Notre Dame W, 79-61 69 95% Home
Thu Dec 14 242 St. Thomas W, 85-62 71 98% Home
Tue Dec 19 54 Providence W, 73-70 71 61% Away ×
Fri Dec 22 159 Georgetown W, 83-64 71 95% Home ×
Sat Dec 30 12 Creighton W, 75-71 72 62% Home ×
Sat Jan 6 56 Seton Hall W, 73-69 71 62% Away ×
Wed Jan 10 96 Butler W, 78-63 71 91% Home ×
Mon Jan 15 23 Villanova W, 75-69 70 70% Home ×
Sat Jan 20 60 St. John's W, 76-71 73 64% Away ×
Wed Jan 24 110 DePaul W, 78-68 72 82% Away ×
Sat Jan 27 56 Seton Hall W, 76-66 71 82% Home ×
Tue Jan 30 23 Villanova L, 73-72 70 47% Away ×
Sat Feb 3 159 Georgetown W, 79-67 71 86% Away ×
Sat Feb 10 60 St. John's W, 79-68 73 83% Home ×
Tue Feb 13 96 Butler W, 75-66 71 78% Away ×
Sat Feb 17 4 Connecticut L, 74-69 71 30% Away ×
Wed Feb 21 110 DePaul W, 81-65 72 93% Home ×
Sun Feb 25 34 Xavier W, 78-71 73 74% Home ×
Wed Feb 28 54 Providence W, 77-67 71 81% Home ×
Sat Mar 2 12 Creighton L, 75-71 72 39% Away ×
Wed Mar 6 4 Connecticut W, 72-71 71 53% Home ×
Sat Mar 9 34 Xavier W, 75-74 73 52% Away ×
Projected record: 21-8 Conference Record: 14-6
Quote from: jfp61 on October 15, 2023, 05:12:22 PM
KenPom Predicted Results for Marquette
Date Rk Opponent Result Tempo Est. Win % Location
Mon Nov 6 252 Northern Illinois W, 85-61 72 99% Home
Fri Nov 10 229 Rider W, 84-61 71 98% Home
Tue Nov 14 19 Illinois L, 74-73 73 44% Away
Mon Nov 20 26 UCLA W, 71-68 70 59% Neutral
Tue Nov 28 328 Southern W, 84-56 71 99.5% Home
Sat Dec 2 20 Wisconsin L, 70-68 69 44% Away
Wed Dec 6 16 Texas W, 74-70 72 65% Home
Sat Dec 9 165 Notre Dame W, 79-61 69 95% Home
Thu Dec 14 242 St. Thomas W, 85-62 71 98% Home
Tue Dec 19 54 Providence W, 73-70 71 61% Away ×
Fri Dec 22 159 Georgetown W, 83-64 71 95% Home ×
Sat Dec 30 12 Creighton W, 75-71 72 62% Home ×
Sat Jan 6 56 Seton Hall W, 73-69 71 62% Away ×
Wed Jan 10 96 Butler W, 78-63 71 91% Home ×
Mon Jan 15 23 Villanova W, 75-69 70 70% Home ×
Sat Jan 20 60 St. John's W, 76-71 73 64% Away ×
Wed Jan 24 110 DePaul W, 78-68 72 82% Away ×
Sat Jan 27 56 Seton Hall W, 76-66 71 82% Home ×
Tue Jan 30 23 Villanova L, 73-72 70 47% Away ×
Sat Feb 3 159 Georgetown W, 79-67 71 86% Away ×
Sat Feb 10 60 St. John's W, 79-68 73 83% Home ×
Tue Feb 13 96 Butler W, 75-66 71 78% Away ×
Sat Feb 17 4 Connecticut L, 74-69 71 30% Away ×
Wed Feb 21 110 DePaul W, 81-65 72 93% Home ×
Sun Feb 25 34 Xavier W, 78-71 73 74% Home ×
Wed Feb 28 54 Providence W, 77-67 71 81% Home ×
Sat Mar 2 12 Creighton L, 75-71 72 39% Away ×
Wed Mar 6 4 Connecticut W, 72-71 71 53% Home ×
Sat Mar 9 34 Xavier W, 75-74 73 52% Away ×
Projected record: 21-8 Conference Record: 14-6
Maybe I'm missing something but the only losses I saw on this list are:
Illinois (1 pt)
Wisconsin (2 pts)
Villanova (3 pts)
UConn (5 pts)
Creighton (4 pts)
Every single one of those KenPom losses is an away game. We're going to win all but three conference games and be 7-2 in non-conference games. I don't see Hawaii in here after UCLA so that could be one more win or loss.
Nonetheless, an incredible season if this happens! We'd be 24-5 and 17-3 in conference/
Quote from: dgies9156 on October 15, 2023, 05:25:07 PM
Maybe I'm missing something but the only losses I saw on this list are:
Illinois (1 pt)
Wisconsin (2 pts)
Villanova (3 pts)
UConn (5 pts)
Creighton (4 pts)
Every single one of those KenPom losses is an away game. We're going to win all but three conference games and be 7-2 in non-conference games. I don't see Hawaii in here after UCLA so that could be one more win or loss.
Nonetheless, an incredible season if this happens! We'd be 24-5 and 17-3 in conference/
I would put little to no stock in game-to-game predictions from any of the analytics sites at this point in the calendar.
Quote from: dgies9156 on October 15, 2023, 05:25:07 PM
Maybe I'm missing something but the only losses I saw on this list are:
Illinois (1 pt)
Wisconsin (2 pts)
Villanova (3 pts)
UConn (5 pts)
Creighton (4 pts)
Every single one of those KenPom losses is an away game. We're going to win all but three conference games and be 7-2 in non-conference games. I don't see Hawaii in here after UCLA so that could be one more win or loss.
Nonetheless, an incredible season if this happens! We'd be 24-5 and 17-3 in conference/
We are favored in all but five games. But there are more projected toss ups that we are favored to win than projected toss ups that we are favored to lose. KenPom's model assumes we will lose three more of those projected close wins than projected close losses that we win.
Think of it this way. If we are projected to have a 75% chance of winning in four games, your method would say we should go 4-0. The odds would say we should go 3-1.
So ND is now effectively a buy game? ;D
It could go either way.
Quote from: MuMark on October 15, 2023, 05:39:48 PM
So ND is now effectively a buy game? ;D
I think Pomeroy has them wildly overrated.
See Pomeroy still has its Badger bias factored in.
I wouldn't get too hung up on these ratings and predictions. They are just used as a starting point to rate teams until actual results come in.
Of course we all have very high expectations and hopes for this year's MU team. But, if you think about, it a record of 21-8 (plus whatever happens in the other games in Hawaii and in the BET) and an 11 ranking isn't unreasonable. A 14-6 conference record and a 3 seed in the NCAA could be a starting point for a strong run in the tournament. I think a repeat of last year's 17-3 conference record is highly unlikely; the competition is too tough.
That having been said, a loss to the Badgers would be totally unacceptable.
UCLA game is most important of the year .
Quote from: Herman Cain on October 15, 2023, 08:18:29 PM
UCLA game is most important of the year .
I agree - getting into the winner's bracket in Maui is huge.
Quote from: Uncle Rico on October 15, 2023, 05:28:48 PM
I would put little to no stock in game-to-game predictions from any of the analytics sites at this point in the calendar.
Generally, I agree. In every season you're going to win some you should lose and lose some you should win.
That's a fact.
I didn't see the math in the original post.