MUScoop

MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: PaintTouches on October 10, 2023, 11:32:52 AM

Title: [Paint Touches] Previewing Big East Preview Season
Post by: PaintTouches on October 10, 2023, 11:32:52 AM
We're starting to get a trickle of 2024 projections come through, just enough to get a taste.

https://painttouches.com/2023/10/10/previewing-big-east-preview-season/ (https://painttouches.com/2023/10/10/previewing-big-east-preview-season/)

(https://painttouches.files.wordpress.com/2023/10/image-5.png)
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] Previewing Big East Preview Season
Post by: MUbiz on October 10, 2023, 11:49:47 AM
 I know it doesn't mean much, but it will be interesting to see where MU is ranked with the first AP poll coming Monday, Oct 16th.
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] Previewing Big East Preview Season
Post by: GoldenEagles03 on October 10, 2023, 12:35:00 PM
I know it doesn't mean much, but it will be interesting to see where MU is ranked with the first AP poll coming Monday, Oct 16th.

I would guess higher than these metrics have them ranked. Bill Self said they'd be #1 right before OMax left.

Minus Omax
Plus Zaide, Tre, Al

I'll say 6 or 7.
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] Previewing Big East Preview Season
Post by: Dr. Blackheart on October 10, 2023, 02:55:10 PM
I would guess higher than these metrics have them ranked. Bill Self said they'd be #1 right before OMax left.

Minus Omax
Plus Zaide, Tre, Al

I'll say 6 or 7.

12, third in Big East.
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] Previewing Big East Preview Season
Post by: MUbiz on October 10, 2023, 03:51:32 PM
12, third in Big East.

But a final 4 or natty.  :D
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] Previewing Big East Preview Season
Post by: brewcity77 on October 10, 2023, 07:44:07 PM
I think these UConn projections are wild. Borderline absurd.
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] Previewing Big East Preview Season
Post by: El Guerrero 2 on October 10, 2023, 09:11:41 PM
How do the computer systems account for freshman? Is it based on composite recruiting rankings or is some human analyst providing input?

I agree that UConn’s numbers are ridiculous for a team that lost its three best players. They’ll go as far as Castle will take them (I’m not buying that Clingan is the next Edey), but I don’t know how you project that before the kid plays a college basketball game.
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] Previewing Big East Preview Season
Post by: wadesworld on October 10, 2023, 09:34:46 PM
Newton is very, very good.
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] Previewing Big East Preview Season
Post by: brewcity77 on October 11, 2023, 08:50:48 AM
Newton is very, very good.

Newton did well as the fourth or fifth option on a team with three NBA players surrounding him. But he was less efficient as the lead option at ECU. This is a totally different role for him.
Title: Re: [Paint Touches] Previewing Big East Preview Season
Post by: PaintTouches on October 11, 2023, 11:44:07 AM
How do the computer systems account for freshman? Is it based on composite recruiting rankings or is some human analyst providing input?


Each model has a way to account for assumed freshman production, but Torvik uses a blend of RSCI ranking and team needs, adjusting for the top 10. "1) I tweaked the recruiting points to make them even more top heavy, but also discounted them less. What this means is that top 10ish recruits are more important, 10-20 about the same, below that less important."

So for this season he sees Castle playing in 64% of minutes with an ORtg of 108 on 21% usage, for a line of 9.3pts, 4.4 rebs, 1.5 asts per game.  https://barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Connecticut&year=2024 (https://barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Connecticut&year=2024)

Hoop Explorer has him at 21 mpg, and the 4th best player on the team with a net impact of 5.1.