MUScoop

Alright boys and girls - let's get this show underway. The heart says the last option is more plausible than the first!

I picked us to win it all in my bracket, which is something I've never done before.  We'll have to play to our absolute ceiling 5 times in a row, but that's what it takes to win a championship.

I'll be slightly disappointed but certainly not upset if we don't make the FF.  We got a great draw, our whole roster is healthy, and we finished the year ranked higher than any MU team since the Al era.  You just never know what future seasons will bring, so it feels like now is the time to make a deep run.

I'll be very disappointed if we don't make it past the first weekend.  It's been a terrific season, the program has a great opportunity, and an early exit would be a huge letdown. 

All that being said, Shaka and the players/staff did an awesome job these past few months.  I haven't felt this way about MU ball in a decade.

This is a tough one. I definitely think they have a chance to go to FF, or even win the NC, but that is still long shot as we sit here today.

Like Silent mentioned, there are a lot of positives going into NCAA this year and the guys have shown they can handle big moments. A first weekend exit would surprise far more than playing in FF. I think they do well this weekend and go from there.

I agree that anything less than the second weekend would feel like a disappointment at this point - but I also picked MU to win it all - there is no match up that doesn't seem like a winnable game. I get that even if everything from the s16 on is basically 50-50 then our straight up odds of winning it all are only 6%, there also wasn't much statistical likelihood of us winning 14 of the last 15. 

1SE

I agree that MU can beat every team in the NCAA on a given night and fortunately they only have to beat six to win the whole thing. I will have a positive vibe going into every single game, but it really is one at a time in March. That is what makes the NCAA great, but definitely causes a bit of anxiety waiting for the games. I will have a touch of anxiety going into every game because this is a golden opportunity for MU to make real noise in the tourney.

I think the key to success is Kam Jones.  And staying out of foul trouble.

I think MU's "average" game gets them to the S16.   Going beyond that requires their A game.

Kam's 3-point shooting is 6-28 (.214) over the past 3 games.  If he fires up another 0-8 during a S16 game .. MU will struggle greatly against a quality opponent.

And, of course, foul trouble is a great equalizer.  Pick up 2 quick on Tyler, Oso, Stevie .. that makes things extremely challenging to win a 40 minute game.

Topper

I think the key to a deep run is the bench. We have seen enough games to know that any of our starters, minus Kolek, can have an off night or get into foul trouble, but they won 27 games. IMO, it has been because of the depth on this team. We have played two very good and pretty good team over the past three games and won with Kam going 6-28.  That said, I agree that a hot Kam makes things a lot easier for the whole offense.

I agree that the bench is key during tournament play.

Chase Ross seemed to end the regular season and BE tournament playing with more confidence and getting more minutes, and David Joplin is playing his best ball of the year. Ben Gold has been doing well but still just getting very limited minutes. Sean Jones is still looking a bit unsure of himself, and the offense seems to bog down when Kolek goes to the bench and Sean comes in.

These four guys can make a huge difference in how the tournament plays out for MU.

Sean Jones is like a really good version of what Derrick Wilson was supposed to be his first two years at MU.  He gives max effort on D, provides a ton of energy, and is unselfish but can also get to the hole if he needs to.  The perfect guy to give Kolek a breather for 8-10 minutes a game.  He's not ready to play big minutes, but he'll be a great upperclassman.

Saw a tweet from KenPom stating in the 64 team era, teams that were unranked in the preseason and ended up with a 1 or 2 seed (36 total teams) have 0 FF, and average less than 2 wins total.

That being said, for this team feels like round of 16 is the floor.

With regard to that KenPom stat, let's not forget that no team was ever picked to finish ninth in the Big East and win it outright...and then win the tournament as well.

Let's make NCAA tournament history as well.

Quote from: Silent Verbal on March 16, 2023, 05:55:41 AM
I picked us to win it all in my bracket, which is something I've never done before.  We'll have to play to our absolute ceiling 5 6 times in a row, but that's what it takes to win a championship.

I'll be slightly disappointed but certainly not upset if we don't make the FF.  We got a great draw, our whole roster is healthy, and we finished the year ranked higher than any MU team since the Al era.  You just never know what future seasons will bring, so it feels like now is the time to make a deep run.

I'll be very disappointed if we don't make it past the first weekend.  It's been a terrific season, the program has a great opportunity, and an early exit would be a huge letdown. 

All that being said, Shaka and the players/staff did an awesome job these past few months.  I haven't felt this way about MU ball in a decade.

Like Virgina, never under estimate your opponent.

Quote from: Silent Verbal on March 16, 2023, 08:45:35 AM
Sean Jones is like a really good version of what Derrick Wilson was supposed to be his first two years at MU.  He gives max effort on D, provides a ton of energy, and is unselfish but can also get to the hole if he needs to.  The perfect guy to give Kolek a breather for 8-10 minutes a game.  He's not ready to play big minutes, but he'll be a great upperclassman.

Agree, I made the comparison to DW early in the year. I'm not sure Sean is "a really good" version, though. He is a really fast version, no doubt, but he isn't as solid on D yet as DW, and to me feels like he is always half-a-second away from a turnover.

Just hoping for the same second-year improvement from Sean that we've seen from this year's sophs.

Quote from: greenman on March 16, 2023, 08:55:43 AM
Saw a tweet from KenPom stating in the 64 team era, teams that were unranked in the preseason and ended up with a 1 or 2 seed (36 total teams) have 0 FF, and average less than 2 wins total.

That being said, for this team feels like round of 16 is the floor.

Yep. And until 2018, not only had a #16 seed never taken down a #1 seed, but the talking heads were also adamant that would never, ever happen. I remember seeing UVA and UMBC tied at the half and telling my wife that there would be a 20-point differential at the end of the game. And I was right, but not in the order I expected.

Quote from: TSmith34, Inc. on March 16, 2023, 09:05:30 AM
Agree, I made the comparison to DW early in the year. I'm not sure Sean is "a really good" version, though. He is a really fast version, no doubt, but he isn't as solid on D yet as DW, and to me feels like he is always half-a-second away from a turnover.

Just hoping for the same second-year improvement from Sean that we've seen from this year's sophs.

Come on now. Unlike Derrick Wilson, Sean Jones actually can hit a jumper if his defender drops 10 feet away from him. Sean is shooting .317 from 3; that's not Steph Curry, but it's a far cry from Derrick -- who in his first three seasons went 2-for-24 (.083) from 3. Defenders would literally dare him to take 10-footers, and there were few MU fans who actually wanted him to take any of 'em. And Derrick was both a horrible finisher around the rim and a career 46% FT shooter. Sean's a real good defender, too, every bit as good as freshman Derrick was; the announcers were raving about Sean's defense on Boum in the BE title game.

Sean sometimes plays too fast and dribbles too much, so the ball sticks more than it does with Kolek. He's a kid. With experience, he's gonna be a nice college player.

Quote from: Goose on March 16, 2023, 08:00:23 AM
Topper

I think the key to a deep run is the bench. We have seen enough games to know that any of our starters, minus Kolek, can have an off night or get into foul trouble, but they won 27 games. IMO, it has been because of the depth on this team. We have played two very good and pretty good team over the past three games and won with Kam going 6-28.  That said, I agree that a hot Kam makes things a lot easier for the whole offense.

I'd push back on this a bit. While having a productive bench is a huge luxury and Marquette has some great substitution options, our starting five is literally the best 5 player lineup in the country. #1 on Kenpom. The key to winning the inevitable tough March game is keeping our starting 5 on the court together for the MAXIMUM amount of minutes

Quote from: Goose on March 16, 2023, 06:11:52 AM
This is a tough one. I definitely think they have a chance to go to FF, or even win the NC, but that is still long shot as we sit here today.

Like Silent mentioned, there are a lot of positives going into NCAA this year and the guys have shown they can handle big moments. A first weekend exit would surprise far more than playing in FF. I think they do well this weekend and go from there.

  as i go thru my brackets and keep coming up to MU match up...i just can't get myself to NOT hit MU and then next thing ya know i'm up to final four then final two and sonuva...WE WIN!!  damn, but hey, someone's got to win, might as well be the warriors

This is the 3rd time I've filled out a ballot with Marquette winning the national title.

Also did so in 2003 and 2013. We didn't win it all either of those years, but both teams gave MU fans lots of thrills and highlights.

Like others here, I've filled out a ballot for several decades now. The vast majority didn't even include Marquette reaching the Final Four, so I think I can be fairly objective about these things -- when I don't think we're good enough, I don't pick us to win it all. But when we do have a team that legit is among the best dozen in the nation -- as this team and the '03 and '13 teams were -- I absolutely think a national title is possible.

I'm as high on this team as I was on the '03 squad, maybe moreso. Can't wait for the tournament to start!

We have a great team.  This kind of an opportunity doesn't present itself that often - we must exploit it.  Final Four is my expectation.  Once we get there, any team can win. 

SoCalEagle

I agree, time to exploit it.

Quote from: rocket surgeon on March 16, 2023, 09:57:57 AM
  as i go thru my brackets and keep coming up to MU match up...i just can't get myself to NOT hit MU and then next thing ya know i'm up to final four then final two and sonuva...WE WIN!!  damn, but hey, someone's got to win, might as well be the warriors

I feel this. I keep doing the "but there's no way" and then Marquette advances. Not a championship though on my bracket, but a lot further than I was gonna put them without looking at the bracket.

Trying to figure if I want to face USC or MSU should we make it to the next round.

If it's USC we roll.  No doubt.  Can we get that lucky???

Quote from: Carl on March 16, 2023, 09:52:53 AM
I'd push back on this a bit. While having a productive bench is a huge luxury and Marquette has some great substitution options, our starting five is literally the best 5 player lineup in the country. #1 on Kenpom. The key to winning the inevitable tough March game is keeping our starting 5 on the court together for the MAXIMUM amount of minutes

This is exactly right.  Rotations shrink this time of year. 32-36 minutes per game for the big 4.  Stevie plays big minutes for his defense.   See if Jop catches a heater.  His minutes are probably the most variable, especially if he has a bad defensive game.

Chase around 10 mpg.  Sean and Ben play sparingly.

Quote from: greenman on March 16, 2023, 08:55:43 AM
Saw a tweet from KenPom stating in the 64 team era, teams that were unranked in the preseason and ended up with a 1 or 2 seed (36 total teams) have 0 FF, and average less than 2 wins total.

That being said, for this team feels like round of 16 is the floor.

I think a stat like that becomes more irrelevent at this point though.

With free agency transfer portals. Preseason rankings are going to be even more wild. Because people have no idea how teams are going to mesh.

We basically were thought that we would suck because we brought in no transfers. Even though our top 6 players on the team this year all played with us last year.

If we lose our opening round game, a grown man will cry.

Quote from: MU82 on March 16, 2023, 10:08:34 AM
This is the 3rd time I've filled out a ballot with Marquette winning the national title.

Also did so in 2003 and 2013. We didn't win it all either of those years, but both teams gave MU fans lots of thrills and highlights.

Like others here, I've filled out a ballot for several decades now. The vast majority didn't even include Marquette reaching the Final Four, so I think I can be fairly objective about these things -- when I don't think we're good enough, I don't pick us to win it all. But when we do have a team that legit is among the best dozen in the nation -- as this team and the '03 and '13 teams were -- I absolutely think a national title is possible.

I'm as high on this team as I was on the '03 squad, maybe moreso. Can't wait for the tournament to start!

From top to bottom, I do believe this year's team is better than '03.  Yes, a first ballot NBA hall of famer is impossible to replace, but outside of Wade, Diener, Novak, and Jackson, there was a lot of inconsistency and dead weight on that roster.  Merritt showed flashes but never seemed to put it together, and Sanders, Townsend, and Chapman could rarely be counted on to add anything.  I'll take our bench this year any day over '03's.  Every player on the roster could potentially make huge contributions over the next few weeks.

Jop is the guy who has his finger on the button when it comes to raising this team's ceiling. If he's productive MU becomes much harder to guard.

I'm very concerned about a second round road game against Sparty.