A UCONN win on their homecourt vs PC tonight reduces MU's Magic W Number for a share of the BE regular season title to 1.
Let's go Huskies!
But the path to at least a share of the title is great - I think even better than 2019.
Winning all 3 (as we should) of course gets the title outright. Let's do that.
But even if we stumble once, we are still in great position for outright with PC needing to win both @UCONN and vs X (and avoid L's to GT and SH).
The probability of Marquette winning at least 1 more game is, conservatively, about 94% (assuming MU is, on average, a 60% favorite in each of its remaining games - probably a bit low)
The probability of PC losing at least one more game is, conservatively, about 87% (assuming, on average, PC is also a 60% favorite in each of its remaining game - probably a bit high given @UCONN)
So (I think I'm doing this right - might have to dust off the old Theory of Prob textbook) there is about an 82% chance Marquette claims at least a share of the BE title going into the UCONN-PC game tonight.
I'm ALMOST ready to bold the BE regular season title in the Shaka thread.
EDIT - sorry - I didn't see this discussion was on in the BE thread - mods can move there if they want.
I'm not sure where this is from, but they've got the probabilities way higher than your estimate: https://twitter.com/secretmarquette/status/1628247754861424640?s=46&t=ujdO_UV-S37Bku7b0hSSrg
I believe it, I don't have the torvick game by game so I estimated pretty conservatively-but those.numbers imply MU is about an 80% favorite in each remaining game and PC is, on average - 50/50 in the remaining games.
https://www.barttorvik.com/conodds.php?conf=BE
Take care of our own business and it won't matter. Three very winnable games. I think the team locks in knowing what's ahead of them and they get the job done in all 3.
Quote from: 1SE on February 22, 2023, 04:12:11 AM
A UCONN win on their homecourt vs PC tonight reduces MU's Magic W Number for a share of the BE regular season title to 1.
Let's go Huskies!
But the path to at least a share of the title is great - I think even better than 2019.
Winning all 3 (as we should) of course gets the title outright. Let's do that.
But even if we stumble once, we are still in great position for outright with PC needing to win both @UCONN and vs X (and avoid L's to GT and SH).
The probability of Marquette winning at least 1 more game is, conservatively, about 94% (assuming MU is, on average, a 60% favorite in each of its remaining games - probably a bit low)
The probability of PC losing at least one more game is, conservatively, about 87% (assuming, on average, PC is also a 60% favorite in each of its remaining game - probably a bit high given @UCONN)
So (I think I'm doing this right - might have to dust off the old Theory of Prob textbook) there is about an 82% chance Marquette claims at least a share of the BE title going into the UCONN-PC game tonight.
I'm ALMOST ready to bold the BE regular season title in the Shaka thread.
EDIT - sorry - I didn't see this discussion was on in the BE thread - mods can move there if they want.
The main reason I want this to happen is MU will clinch the BE after (if) they beat DePaul. MU can then celebrate clinching at home when it happened. If Providence wins MU would clinch a share on the road if everything goes as expected. Second, the pressure is off because they already won. They can start to give some of the players a few extra minutes of rest and it won't impact our season. Finally, I know we don't have many Sr. but it would be nice to send Zach and Kennedy off with a moment for them that isn't completely overshadowed while also celebrating the overall team success with an outright victory. Their impact on the court wasn't huge but the contributions in the locker room, practice, etc. need to be recognized.
Quote from: BallBoy on February 22, 2023, 09:51:37 AM
The main reason I want this to happen is MU will clinch the BE after (if) they beat DePaul. MU can then celebrate clinching at home when it happened. If Providence wins MU would clinch a share on the road if everything goes as expected. Second, the pressure is off because they already won. They can start to give some of the players a few extra minutes of rest and it won't impact our season. Finally, I know we don't have many Sr. but it would be nice to send Zach and Kennedy off with a moment for them that isn't completely overshadowed while also celebrating the overall team success with an outright victory. Their impact on the court wasn't huge but the contributions in the locker room, practice, etc. need to be recognized.
With NET used these days I don't think we take the foot off the gas at all. can't afford a loss that could knock us to the 4 line (assuming we're at the 3 now with recent developments of ISU, IU, and UT)
Quote from: Galway Eagle on February 22, 2023, 10:04:51 AM
With NET used these days I don't think we take the foot off the gas at all. can't afford a loss that could knock us to the 4 line (assuming we're at the 3 now with recent developments of ISU, IU, and UT)
Correct.
My hope is the only foot off the gas is pulling guys early cause 2-3 of the games are not even in doubt. From that stand point we dont have to worry about NET anymore.
But gotta win the games.
Quote from: BallBoy on February 22, 2023, 09:51:37 AM
The main reason I want this to happen is MU will clinch the BE after (if) they beat DePaul. MU can then celebrate clinching at home when it happened. If Providence wins MU would clinch a share on the road if everything goes as expected. Second, the pressure is off because they already won. They can start to give some of the players a few extra minutes of rest and it won't impact our season. Finally, I know we don't have many Sr. but it would be nice to send Zach and Kennedy off with a moment for them that isn't completely overshadowed while also celebrating the overall team success with an outright victory. Their impact on the court wasn't huge but the contributions in the locker room, practice, etc. need to be recognized.
The conference title is nice but there's ZERO justification for taking the foot off the gas if we clinch. Seeding is still very much on the line and this team needs to win out the regular season for a 3 seed. And we still have a shot at a 2 with a run in the BET.