MUScoop
MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: MuggsyB on February 21, 2023, 10:24:37 PM
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Could you give us a little analysis of how the overall night played out for MU as far as future tourney seeding? Ty.
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Take care of business the last 3 games and we will get a 3 seed.
We got the road win needed.
The other teams around us are gonna play tougher schedules and lose more frequently as well.
our X and SHU wins are clinging to Q1 though. But maybe Nova will creep up there...
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Iowa State got crushed by Texas tonight. I can’t see them over us at this point.
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Playing for a 2 now.
3 seed is a guarantee if Marquette wins the next 3 as projected, although nothing is guaranteed.
Don’t forget, the legs and arms tighten up with hardware on the line, no matta the opponent.
Throw the computers in the trash when the brass is up for grabs.
You can quote me on that.
Win a BE title, get a 3 at worst as I’ve said all along.
Two in play if we win all 3 and get help. Then get to Saturday night in the Garden.
If not, rest up for Columbus 14 seed and plan for possible 6 seed
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Playing for a 2 now.
3 seed is a guarantee if Marquette wins the next 3 as projected, although nothing is guaranteed.
Don’t forget, the legs and arms tighten up with hardware on the line, no matta the opponent.
Throw the computers in the trash when the brass is up for grabs.
You can quote me on that.
Win a BE title, get a 3 at worst as I’ve said all along.
Two in play if we win all 3 and get help. Then get to Saturday night in the Garden.
If not, rest up for Columbus 14 seed and plan for possible 6 seed
I'm thinking it's absolutely possible Dr. V to snag a 2 seed.
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Is bracket matrix relatively accurate?
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It’d take a lot to get a 2. But Baylor, Tennessee, Indiana, and Iowa State all losing tonight was a good start.
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It’d take a lot to get a 2. But Baylor, Tennessee, Indiana, and Iowa State all losing tonight was a good start.
NM. True dat.
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Could you give us a little analysis of how the overall night played out for MU as far as future tourney seeding? Ty.
Brew isnt as reactionary as you Muggs.
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3-seed now, no question. We probably need help to get to a 2. Barring an unexpected loss, our seed and first weekend location is set.
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Brew isnt as reactionary as you Muggs.
I suppose.
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Brew isnt as reactionary as you Muggs.
I'm not, but I already had us ahead of Indiana because I don't think their Northwestern loss was factored into the Reveal. The Q1A road win was the only thing missing. Adding that, along with a damaging metric loss for ISU pushes us up. But I do think we're about capped. Hard to see us getting to a 2.
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2 we need a perfect storm.
Basically some more help.
And we have to run the table through MSG with the proper 2 and 3rd games being Q1 opponents as well.
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I'm not, but I already had us ahead of Indiana because I don't think their Northwestern loss was factored into the Reveal. The Q1A road win was the only thing missing. Adding that, along with a damaging metric loss for ISU pushes us up. But I do think we're about capped. Hard to see us getting to a 2.
Brew,
Why are Zona and UCLA lock 2's? Ty.
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Is bracket matrix relatively accurate?
Until the end it can be a bit of a lagging indicator because they include a lot of brackets that are a few days old and don’t reflect the most recent results.
But it’s hard to see MU not being a 3 in brackets now because they got the 1A road win that had eluded them and also kept Creighton behind them. Xavier, Iowa State, and Indiana should slip back too.
They should be able to hold a 3 if they avoid a bad loss in the last 3, and maybe even if they lose one. But there’s still a lot that would have to happen for them to get up to a 2.
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Brew,
Why are Zona and UCLA lock 2's? Ty.
I don't think either is a lock, but Arizona's top tier wins are stellar. UCLA I think is vulnerable. Though Virginia and K-State have the edge on us to move up there. Honestly, though, not much difference between a 2 and 3 this year.
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I don't think either is a lock, but Arizona's top tier wins are stellar. UCLA I think is vulnerable. Though Virginia and K-State have the edge on us to move up there. Honestly, though, not much difference between a 2 and 3 this year.
Alright,
Thanks Brew. I guess that's right. But a 3 is much better than a 4 imo.
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3-seed now, no question. We probably need help to get to a 2. Barring an unexpected loss, our seed and first weekend location is set.
What’s our location?
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I'm not, but I already had us ahead of Indiana because I don't think their Northwestern loss was factored into the Reveal. The Q1A road win was the only thing missing. Adding that, along with a damaging metric loss for ISU pushes us up. But I do think we're about capped. Hard to see us getting to a 2.
3 sounds great….I don’t understand how a 2 seed is in play at all.
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3 sounds great….I don’t understand how a 2 seed is in play at all.
Because our next three games are against crappy teams, meaning we have no more Q1 opportunities. Our resume is basically set, minus the potential for a bad loss to end the year.
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What’s our location?
Probably Columbus. Too many Big 12 teams vying for Des Moines.
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Because our next three games are against crappy teams, meaning we have no more Q1 opportunities. Our resume is basically set, minus the potential for a bad loss to end the year.
Yes….i agree completely. Again, I dont see how we could become a 2 seed. Your response didnt address that at all.
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3 sounds great….I don’t understand how a 2 seed is in play at all.
As others stated, we need a perfect storm to get a 2. If other teams above is lose games and we run the table and pick up some Q1 wins at MSG, we could get to the two line.
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It’d take a lot to get a 2. But Baylor, Tennessee, Indiana, and Iowa State all losing tonight was a good start.
Baylor, Texas, Arizona, UCLA the 2s at the reveal.
Texas the top 2 seed can’t pass.
UCLA, Arizona, Baylor all in play IMO.
I know conferences no matta, or so they say, but I like the BE Champ getting a 2 ahead of 2 Pac-12 teams, or Baylor fading enough where MU overcomes them.
As for the 3 seed challengers-
Honestly I thought KSt would fade but that final 2 seed might be up for grabs between MU and them.
They beat 2 ranked opponents and have a soft end, much like MU.
Iowa State has faded, Tennessee lost at Buzz and is fading, Virginia has looked awful versus crap teams.
Indiana lost, Gonzaga doesn’t have the juice.
So, if my math is right, if Marquette holds on to a BE ship and wins the last 3 the 2 seeds should be
Texas, UCLA (who I think beats Az at home in last game of season)
Az, Baylor, Virginia, Kansas St, Marquette, Gonzaga battling for the last 2 two seeds.
In that case, I honestly think Marquette gets one of the two spots with a 25-6,17-3 and a trip to Saturday at the Garden.
Can’t really see a scenario where Marquette doesn’t get that 2 seed with that type of record and run, no matter what happens elsewhere.
Only downside is how the committee currently views the BE, but I think it would be a robbery if they were a 3 in that case tbh
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Where is Brew? I hope drinking and not crunching. Outstanding work throughout the season (and before).
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Big 12 teams are losing to high end teams so ISU or KSU won't be penalized for a loss. They have more Q1 wins than we do, though us picking up a Q1A win on the road is a massive resume builder.
Be happy with a 3 seed. It is quite an accomplishment.
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3-seed now, no question. We probably need help to get to a 2. Barring an unexpected loss, our seed and first weekend location is set.
Help sure, but not so fast on the 3 seed no question.
You are a numbers guy and the numbers say Marquette should win the next 3, and first 2 at the Garden to play in the final.
If that happens, I see a 2
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As others stated, we need a perfect storm to get a 2. If other teams above is lose games and we run the table and pick up some Q1 wins at MSG, we could get to the two line.
We were 14 on the seed list during the reveal. Since then Baylor, Tennessee, Iowa State and Indiana have all lost 2 games. Let’s assume we pass them and move up to 10.
That leaves Virginia, Arizona, and UCLA as the next few teams ahead of us. We need to pass 2 of them for a 2 seed. We’d just need 2 of those three to kind of fall apart down the stretch which is unlikely due to their weak schedules. It’s possible to get there, but I think our ceiling is 3. Don’t think the BET will make one bit of difference one way or the other.
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We were 14 on the seed list during the reveal. Since then Baylor, Tennessee, Iowa State and Indiana have all lost 2 games. Let’s assume we pass them and move up to 10.
That leaves Virginia, Arizona, and UCLA as the next few teams ahead of us. We need to pass 2 of them for a 2 seed. We’d just need 2 of those three to kind of fall apart down the stretch which is unlikely due to their weak schedules. It’s possible to get there, but I think our ceiling is 3. Don’t think the BET will make one bit of difference one way or the other.
Az and UCLA are an unfortunate scenario.
Why? Because the bracketolonerds (no offense!) value Az who has the worse record and worse net.
UCLA host them last game. UCLA should hopefully win, but AZ was ahead in the bracket reveal. Tricky there
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I don't think either is a lock, but Arizona's top tier wins are stellar. UCLA I think is vulnerable. Though Virginia and K-State have the edge on us to move up there. Honestly, though, not much difference between a 2 and 3 this year.
Virginia has no business being ahead of us in any scenario despite the early bracket reveal. They play in a weaker league than MU, and their best road win is over Michigan. ACC is garbage this year.
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Help sure, but not so fast on the 3 seed no question.
You are a numbers guy and the numbers say Marquette should win the next 3, and first 2 at the Garden to play in the final.
If that happens, I see a 2
Beating DePaul, Butler, St John's and then St. Johns again won't improve our resume at all.
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I’m as enthusiastic Warrior fan as anyone but I’m still not convinced of the NCAA giving us the respect we have earned.
We currently are a four seed probably headed for Albany or Orlando. We weren’t even the best rated 4 seed.
What’s left for us is three games against pretty poor teams, DePaul, Butler and St. John’s. Two of the three are at home and third is at Hellinkle. Assuming we win all three, what makes anyone think the NCAA is going to move us up.
About the only expectation for a higher than four seed in my Warrior induced mind would be if we ran the table during the BE tournament and several of the teams ahead of us lose. I think we are in the Top 10 largely because of that chokehold the SEC has on Tennessee’s neck.
For a team picked 9th in the Big East to be a four seed and to win the Big East regular season title is unbelievable. If Shaka ain’t coach of the year and Tyler player of the year, something is wrong.
In the meantime F@ck ‘em!!!!!
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Virginia has no business being ahead of us in any scenario despite the early bracket reveal. They play in a weaker league than MU, and their best road win is over Michigan. ACC is garbage this year.
I think that’s why getting a 3 is so huge. We’d have a fantastic chance in a S16 game with the PAC12 teams or Virginia as a 2 either against them or against the lower seed that knocks them off. Obviously a long way to go before worrying about that but there is still a lot to play for here. A 3 puts MU in a great position to make a deep run.
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I’m as enthusiastic Warrior fan as anyone but I’m still not convinced of the NCAA giving us the respect we have earned.
We currently are a four seed probably headed for Albany or Orlando. We weren’t even the best rated 4 seed.
What’s left for us is three games against pretty poor teams, DePaul, Butler and St. John’s. Two of the three are at home and third is at Hellinkle. Assuming we win all three, what makes anyone think the NCAA is going to move us up.
About the only expectation for a higher than four seed in my Warrior induced mind would be if we ran the table during the BE tournament and several of the teams ahead of us lose. I think we are in the Top 10 largely because of that chokehold the SEC has on Tennessee’s neck.
For a team picked 9th in the Big East to be a four seed and to win the Big East regular season title is unbelievable. If Shaka ain’t coach of the year and Tyler player of the year, something is wrong.
In the meantime F@ck ‘em!!!!!
We have beat two top 20 teams since the reveal, so stay hopeful.
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I’m as enthusiastic Warrior fan as anyone but I’m still not convinced of the NCAA giving us the respect we have earned.
We currently are a four seed probably headed for Albany or Orlando. We weren’t even the best rated 4 seed.
What’s left for us is three games against pretty poor teams, DePaul, Butler and St. John’s. Two of the three are at home and third is at Hellinkle. Assuming we win all three, what makes anyone think the NCAA is going to move us up.
About the only expectation for a higher than four seed in my Warrior induced mind would be if we ran the table during the BE tournament and several of the teams ahead of us lose. I think we are in the Top 10 largely because of that chokehold the SEC has on Tennessee’s neck.
For a team picked 9th in the Big East to be a four seed and to win the Big East regular season title is unbelievable. If Shaka ain’t coach of the year and Tyler player of the year, something is wrong.
In the meantime F@ck ‘em!!!!!
The word is those rankings were done before our Xavier win. Now we’ve added an outstanding road win and multiple teams ahead of us have lost multiple games. If we’re not a solid 3 seed as right now something’s wrong.
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I’m as enthusiastic Warrior fan as anyone but I’m still not convinced of the NCAA giving us the respect we have earned.
We currently are a four seed probably headed for Albany or Orlando. We weren’t even the best rated 4 seed.
What’s left for us is three games against pretty poor teams, DePaul, Butler and St. John’s. Two of the three are at home and third is at Hellinkle. Assuming we win all three, what makes anyone think the NCAA is going to move us up.
About the only expectation for a higher than four seed in my Warrior induced mind would be if we ran the table during the BE tournament and several of the teams ahead of us lose. I think we are in the Top 10 largely because of that chokehold the SEC has on Tennessee’s neck.
For a team picked 9th in the Big East to be a four seed and to win the Big East regular season title is unbelievable. If Shaka ain’t coach of the year and Tyler player of the year, something is wrong.
In the meantime F@ck ‘em!!!!!
Brother dgies,
I believe by all measurements and tonight's results right now MU is definitely a #3 seed.
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Brother dgies,
I believe by all measurements and tonight's results right now MU is definitely a #3 seed.
Brother Muggs:
I hope you are right. We deserve it.
But the NCAA has a way of crapping on our parade. Hell, I’m halfway expecting some quant geek in the bowels of Indianapolis to somehow move Florida Atlantic ahead of us. Or something equally stupid.
Only answer: F@ck ‘em!!!!
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Beating DePaul, Butler, St John's and then St. Johns again won't improve our resume at all.
I take the point, but after a while the win total becomes hard to ignore. A 26/27 win team is hard to put on a 3 line.
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I think there is no doubt that we have passed Indiana and Iowa State and secured at least the last 3 seed.
Kansas State has has had two big wins (but not as big as ours). If they committee took their Feb 14 loss to Oklahoma into account during the reel, then they are likely still ahead of us. If the loss to Oklahoma wasn't counted, then we are likely above them.
Virginia has had two awful performance to ACC cellar dwellers Louisville and Notre Dame...but they won both games. I'm not sure how big the gap was between as and UVA but it's possible that we have hopped them as well.
Tennessee has lost twice on the road to top 40 KenPom teams....but also beat the #1 overall seed. I think the Creighton win likely gets us over them but not a guarantee.
Texas, UCLA, and Arizona have had strong performances since the reveal.
Baylor has lost twice but both games were on the road to other teams in the top 16 reveal (though both were double digits). I'm not sure that's enough to drop them below us.
If I had to guess, I'd say we are 11th (3rd 3 seed) on the S-Curve right now...but in striking distance of the next three (Baylor, Virginia, Kansas State). None of our remaining games are going to move the needle so we will need some help to have any hope of a 2 seed. Honestly, it's a long shot.
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Beating DePaul, Butler, St John's and then St. Johns again won't improve our resume at all.
Let’s beat them one at a time, anyway!
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Hypothetically speaking, what would happen to a team's seed if they were a 1 at the reveal -- maybe even the No. 1 -- and their top player got suspended for the remainder of the season?
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I think there is no doubt that we have passed Indiana and Iowa State and secured at least the last 3 seed.
Kansas State has has had two big wins (but not as big as ours). If they committee took their Feb 14 loss to Oklahoma into account during the reel, then they are likely still ahead of us. If the loss to Oklahoma wasn't counted, then we are likely above them.
Virginia has had two awful performance to ACC cellar dwellers Louisville and Notre Dame...but they won both games. I'm not sure how big the gap was between as and UVA but it's possible that we have hopped them as well.
Tennessee has lost twice on the road to top 40 KenPom teams....but also beat the #1 overall seed. I think the Creighton win likely gets us over them but not a guarantee.
Texas, UCLA, and Arizona have had strong performances since the reveal.
Baylor has lost twice but both games were on the road to other teams in the top 16 reveal (though both were double digits). I'm not sure that's enough to drop them below us.
If I had to guess, I'd say we are 11th (3rd 3 seed) on the S-Curve right now...but in striking distance of the next three (Baylor, Virginia, Kansas State). None of our remaining games are going to move the needle so we will need some help to have any hope of a 2 seed. Honestly, it's a long shot.
Even if we lose one?
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Hypothetically speaking, what would happen to a team's seed if they were a 1 at the reveal -- maybe even the No. 1 -- and their top player got suspended for the remainder of the season?
Probably not much, if anything.
There is some precedent for late injuries to key players (I remember one involving Cincinnati several years ago) and they still got a 1 seed.
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Even if we lose one?
No they would move the needle negatively if we lost. At Butler only a little bit, the others would be more significant