With only 4 games remaining, I started looking toward the Big East Tournament and possible seeding. The Creighton game is the most important remaining on the schedule not only because it keeps Marquette 1 full game above everyone else but it also guarantees that even if Marquette slips up in one of the final 3 games they would still be the 1 seed due to tie breakers.
If the season were to end in a 3 or 4 way tie, the tiebreaker would go to mini conferences and Marquette would be the only one to be 2-0 against Creighton giving them the 1 seed.
Looking at a perfect situation Marquette would be the 1 seed, 4/5 game would be providence/Seton Hall and the 2,3 6 would be X, Creighton and Uconn.
It's gonna be decided by a damn coin flip. Smh
Quote from: Jay Bee on February 16, 2023, 11:20:18 AM
It's gonna be decided by a damn coin flip. Smh
I don't think that's how it works. It is my understanding that if a tie is not decided by the various things like head to head records and wins over the top teams in the standings, the next factor is NET rating published by the NCAA on the day after Big East play is completed.
This could happen if Creighton wins out, MU wins its three other games, and Providence and Xavier both lose at least one more game. PC and X play each other so at least one of them will have one more loss.
If that happens MU and Creighton will not only have identical 16-4 records, but will have split with each other and have road losses to UConn, PC, and X. Because Creighton is currently one spot ahead of MU in the NET, would have added a win over MU, and has a tougher schedule remaining, they would likely win that NET tiebreaker.
I'm looking ahead to the Final Four. Bigger fish to fry this season than getting worn out in NYC.
Quote from: wisblue on February 16, 2023, 12:41:53 PM
I don't think that's how it works. It is my understanding that if a tie is not decided by the various things like head to head records and wins over the top teams in the standings, the next factor is NET rating published by the NCAA on the day after Big East play is completed.
This could happen if Creighton wins out, MU wins its three other games, and Providence and Xavier both lose at least one more game. PC and X play each other so at least one of them will have one more loss.
If that happens MU and Creighton will not only have identical 16-4 records, but will have split with each other and have road losses to UConn, PC, and X. Because Creighton is currently one spot ahead of MU in the NET, would have added a win over MU, and has a tougher schedule remaining, they would likely win that NET tiebreaker.
Publicly available information says the final tiebreaker would indeed be a coin flip, not NET rankings. http://cdn0.sbnation.com/assets/4086343/Big_East_tiebreaker-procedure.pdf
Hey, losing a coin flip gets an evening game on Thursday. I would be fine with that.
I'm pretty sure all four of the top teams are undefeated at home in conference play.
A lot of real tight games, but everyone has held serve.
So a MU win @ Creighton would be the tie-breaker, as they'd be the only team to go 4-2 in that 4-way tie scenario.
When the NET was introduced, there was at least one year when it was a part of the tie breaking methodology (2019). I believe by the next one... 2021 it had been removed.
Can't say I've seen the 2023 methodology distinctly published, but I'm thinking it again will not include NET
Quote from: Goose on February 16, 2023, 12:43:10 PM
I'm looking ahead to the Final Four. Bigger fish to fry this season than getting worn out in NYC.
Yep. A nice run in the NCAA is the main course.
Quote from: TwoWords on February 16, 2023, 01:09:47 PM
Publicly available information says the final tiebreaker would indeed be a coin flip, not NET rankings. http://cdn0.sbnation.com/assets/4086343/Big_East_tiebreaker-procedure.pdf
Considering that that item refers to seeding the teams 1-10, it is clearly outdated.
It is possible that they eliminated NET from the equation because it would require waiting until Sunday to set the pairings.
Seeds aside, really think UConn wins the BET. That team is built for tourney success.
Quote from: Goose on February 16, 2023, 12:43:10 PM
I'm looking ahead to the Final Four. Bigger fish to fry this season than getting worn out in NYC.
I love the optimism Goose, but lets pump the brakes just a tad at this point.
Quote from: wisblue on February 16, 2023, 02:24:21 PM
Considering that that item refers to seeding the teams 1-10, it is clearly outdated.
It is possible that they eliminated NET from the equation because it would require waiting until Sunday to set the pairings.
...or because it's stupid and some other big conferences never used it.
I can't find 2022's, but 2021's definitely has done away w the NET nonsense:
https://www.bigeast.com/sports/2021/2/26/MBB_0226212241.aspx
Quote from: willie warrior on February 16, 2023, 03:48:51 PM
I love the optimism Goose, but lets pump the brakes just a tad at this point.
We're 11th in the country, we may be 9th on Monday. If you're not thinking about Houston, you're not living.
Quote from: The Lens on February 16, 2023, 04:15:26 PM
We're 11th in the country, we may be 9th on Monday. If you're not thinking about Houston, you're not living.
Yep. In 2003, we were ranked 11th this exact same week. And in 2013, the last time in the Elite 8, we never were this highly ranked. I get that it's not LIKELY. But it certainly more likely now than it has been in awhile.
But willie's gonna willie.
I'm not bumping any brakes until the season comes to an end. If you cannot dream about the FF this year, when the hell can you?
Quote from: Goose on February 16, 2023, 04:27:37 PM
I'm not bumping any brakes until the season comes to an end. If you cannot dream about the FF this year, when the hell can you?
Agreed. This team may have some flaws, but they seem to be able.to overcome those every game.
Nice pub in the ESPN article.today about the bracket.
Quote from: Jay Bee on February 16, 2023, 03:51:38 PM
...or because it's stupid and some other big conferences never used it.
I can't find 2022's, but 2021's definitely has done away w the NET nonsense:
https://www.bigeast.com/sports/2021/2/26/MBB_0226212241.aspx
So, apparently nobody really knows what the current rules are. It's odd that they aren't published on the Big East website.
The 2021 procedures aren't a good indicator because that season was messed up by cancellations and not all teams playing the same number of games.
For what it's worth, the website that does the seed calculations refers to the NET in the case of a tie at 16-4 between MU and Creighton.
Out of curiosity, if you're shaking your head about a seed being decided by a damn coin flip, what would you recommend?
Quote from: Goose on February 16, 2023, 12:43:10 PM
I'm looking ahead to the Final Four. Bigger fish to fry this season than getting worn out in NYC.
I don't see that being interested in the conference tournament precludes also looking ahead to the NCAA tournament.
I am not in the camp that thinks that losing early in the conference tournament helps a team in the NCAA. So, why not win them both?
Quote from: lawdog77 on February 16, 2023, 04:46:09 PM
Agreed. This team may have some flaws, but they seem to be able.to overcome those every game.
.....against Big East opponents.
I hope we can continue to do anything needed to win in the ncaas.
Quote from: We R Final Four on February 16, 2023, 05:41:32 PM
.....against Big East opponents.
I hope we can continue to do anything needed to win in the ncaas.
Flip side is that these opponents know us the best. Anybody we play in NCAA will be less familiar.
Quote from: wisblue on February 16, 2023, 05:23:31 PM
So, apparently nobody really knows what the current rules are. It's odd that they aren't published on the Big East website.
The 2021 procedures aren't a good indicator because that season was messed up by cancellations and not all teams playing the same number of games.
For what it's worth, the website that does the seed calculations refers to the NET in the case of a tie at 16-4 between MU and Creighton.
Out of curiosity, if you're shaking your head about a seed being decided by a damn coin flip, what would you recommend?
Heard it was determined by back alley knife fight
Quote from: JakeBarnes on February 16, 2023, 06:11:38 PM
Heard it was determined by back alley knife fight
That's good. Marquette has plenty of experience
Quote from: wisblue on February 16, 2023, 05:23:31 PM
So, apparently nobody really knows what the current rules are. It's odd that they aren't published on the Big East website.
The 2021 procedures aren't a good indicator because that season was messed up by cancellations and not all teams playing the same number of games.
For what it's worth, the website that does the seed calculations refers to the NET in the case of a tie at 16-4 between MU and Creighton.
Out of curiosity, if you're shaking your head about a seed being decided by a damn coin flip, what would you recommend?
I know what the rules are
I'd recommend fans have a beer drinking competition for the tiebreaker
Quote from: Goose on February 16, 2023, 04:27:37 PM
I'm not bumping any brakes until the season comes to an end. If you cannot dream about the FF this year, when the hell can you?
Yessir.
I'm not saying I'd hate a BET title. But I won't be even a little disappointed if we lose Friday and our guys are healthy, rested and ready for the NCAA tournament.
I'm planning my entire March around the madness!
Quote from: Goose on February 16, 2023, 04:27:37 PM
I'm not bumping any brakes until the season comes to an end. If you cannot dream about the FF this year, when the hell can you?
Dream about it every year.
Quote from: MU82 on February 16, 2023, 06:50:07 PM
Yessir.
I'm not saying I'd hate a BET title. But I won't be even a little disappointed if we lose Friday and our guys are healthy, rested and ready for the NCAA tournament.
I'm planning my entire March around the madness!
Virginia Tech won the ACC tournament last year and lost their first game in NCAA tournament.
Georgetown won the Big East tournament two years ago and lost in their first game in NCAA tournament.
Quote from: bilsu on February 16, 2023, 08:27:24 PM
Virginia Tech won the ACC tournament last year and lost their first game in NCAA tournament.
Georgetown won the Big East tournament two years ago and lost in their first game in NCAA tournament.
Is there a pattern beyond the 2 examples you provided? One from last year, one from 2 years ago. If you could show a pattern among the 6 major bball conferences over at least several seasons, then I think there would be a point to be made.
Quote from: bilsu on February 16, 2023, 08:27:24 PM
Virginia Tech won the ACC tournament last year and lost their first game in NCAA tournament.
Georgetown won the Big East tournament two years ago and lost in their first game in NCAA tournament.
Kansas won the Big Twelve Tournament last year. Surely they must've been upset in the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament.
I feel like this is in the neighborhood of the it's tough to beat a team 3 times thought.
Quote from: wadesworld on February 16, 2023, 08:38:50 PM
Kansas won the Big Twelve Tournament last year. Surely they must've been upset in the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament.
Nova won the BET. Made the final four.
Quote from: MU82 on February 16, 2023, 06:50:07 PM
Yessir.
I'm not saying I'd hate a BET title. But I won't be even a little disappointed if we lose Friday and our guys are healthy, rested and ready for the NCAA tournament.
I'm planning my entire March around the madness!
Eff that. Some of us actually go to tourneys
I know that generally speaking you go into the conference tourney week largely locked into place on your seed and it's real hard to move based on either a bad or a good result, but I think any BET title would necessarily require you to take down at least 2 top 4ish seeds (Creighton, UCONN, X, PC in some combo). If we're hovering on the edge of a seed line, cutting the nets in NYC might be enough to bump us up a line simply because that's at a minimum a couple big time wins. Maybe I'm being overly optimistic though. Generally speaking I enjoy winning more than I enjoy losing, and I swear in the long time I've followed this team we've had terrible conference tourney results. It'd be fun to get some success in one for a change.
Quote from: Jay Bee on February 16, 2023, 09:22:27 PM
Eff that. Some of us actually go to tourneys
Sorry JB ron won't travel this year.
Quote from: The Lens on February 16, 2023, 04:15:26 PM
We're 11th in the country, we may be 9th on Monday. If you're not thinking about Houston, you're not living.
Oh I'm definitely thinking about Houston.
So much so that I've already set up my housing for the weekend- college buddy of mine lives there- and have a lined up itinerary filled with opening weekend of WhiteSox baseball (versus the Astros) and MU bball.
However, I am also still thinking about the goal I set for this years team in the pre-season, and I am thinking about that much more than about Houston.
To win one game in the NCAA Tournament.
If that makes any sense?
It's been a decade, and both Shaka and Marquette need it after the recent stretch.
I'm thinking about that so much that I'll be traveling to watch the game in person.
It's ok to think about both, plan for both, and only be disappointed if neither happens.
As a caveat, one thing has emerged this season that has caught me by complete surprise and changed my overall viewpoint on my pre-season expectations on what would constitute a successful season.
I will start a thread on it at some point so I can keep up with Muggsy.
As a teaser, it's my belief that if Marquette wins a Big East Conference Championship the entire season is a complete success, an A rated season for Coach Smart and the team, no matter what happens from that point forward.
If might not be the popular opinion, but it is an honest assessment from my pov.
MOPE, COLE, JERK be damned.
Quote from: MU82 on February 16, 2023, 06:50:07 PM
Yessir.
I'm not saying I'd hate a BET title. But I won't be even a little disappointed if we lose Friday and our guys are healthy, rested and ready for the NCAA tournament.
I'm planning my entire March around the madness!
Coach Smart has made it seem like he would be a bit disappointed so in that sense I think we should all be, albeit even if a minuscule amount.
Doesn't mean that your point isn't valid, or that the season can't be a success without a good showing in NYC, but just that IMO if Shaka wants and expects something special at the BET I think that we should as well.
Quote from: DoctorV on February 16, 2023, 10:29:05 PM
Coach Smart has made it seem like he would be a bit disappointed so in that sense I think we should all be, albeit even if a minuscule amount.
Doesn't mean that your point isn't valid, or that the season can't be a success without a good showing in NYC, but just that IMO if Shaka wants and expects something special at the BET I think that we should as well.
If we win the BEast tournament but don't have a good March run, I will be disappointed. If we flame out early in the BET but have a great March run, I will be ecstatic.
Obviously, they are not mutually exclusive; it would be lovely to show well in both. I happen to put a premium on the NCAA tournament; others are free to disagree. I also happen to think a regular-season BEast title, won through extremely hard work and excellent play over 3 months, is more impressive than a tourney title; again, others can disagree.
Quote from: MU82 on February 16, 2023, 10:34:25 PM
If we win the BEast tournament but don't have a good March run, I will be disappointed. If we flame out early in the BET but have a great March run, I will be ecstatic.
Obviously, they are not mutually exclusive; it would be lovely to show well in both. I happen to put a premium on the NCAA tournament; others are free to disagree. I also happen to think a regular-season BEast title, won through extremely hard work and excellent play over 3 months, is more impressive than a tourney title; again, others can disagree.
The BET is a completely awesome event to attend and it's an amazing experience watching MU compete on that stage in that environment. Though winning it doesn't move the needle nearly as much as regular season success (Top25) and NCAA success does.
As far as regular season success vs NCAA success goes, I'd prefer a good balance between the two with a slight edge to regular season success. There's something to be said about being good for 4 months versus a few games at the end of the year. That said, I don't want to be known as a team that always craps the bed in March either.
Quote from: CountryRoads on February 16, 2023, 10:50:36 PM
The BET is a completely awesome event to attend and it's an amazing experience watching MU compete on that stage in that environment. Though winning it doesn't move the needle nearly as much as regular season success (Top25) and NCAA success does.
As far as regular season success vs NCAA success goes, I'd prefer a good balance between the two with a slight edge to regular season success. There's something to be said about being good for 4 months versus a few games at the end of the year. That said, I don't want to be known as a team that always craps the bed in March either.
Reasonable take, CR.
All I'll add is that great programs win a LOT in the NCAA tournament. They regularly reach the second weekend and advance fairly often to the Elite Eight and Final Four. I want Marquette to be that great program again -- the elusive "Next Villanova," as it has been termed on Scoop. Now, of course, one way to pave the way for regular NCAAT success is to be a protected seed year after year. So having great regular seasons and having great NCAATs co-exist very nicely.
Quote from: MU82 on February 16, 2023, 10:34:25 PM
If we win the BEast tournament but don't have a good March run, I will be disappointed. If we flame out early in the BET but have a great March run, I will be ecstatic.
Obviously, they are not mutually exclusive; it would be lovely to show well in both. I happen to put a premium on the NCAA tournament; others are free to disagree. I also happen to think a regular-season BEast title, won through extremely hard work and excellent play over 3 months, is more impressive than a tourney title; again, others can disagree.
It's hard to disagree, you're correct.
March Madness >>>> BET in importance and at the end of the day >>>> regular season performance all things being equal.
Of course without a very good to elite nearly 4 months of ball before Selection Sunday there is no March Madness (sans a miracle run in the BET).
The all things being equal part comes in play when you bring a Conference Championship into play.
Of course March Madness is one of the greatest sporting events in the world, and "the casuals" all live for March Madness, so the big show brings all the hype, joy, enthrallment, memories to life and takes them to a new level.
That gives it a leg up on importance in nearly all instances to anything done from Nov-March 10.
A Conference Championship strikes different though, and has its place in folklore, especially when you are a Marquette fan and they haven't come around too often.
Hopefully one day Shaka will continue to ascend and take Marquette to the heights where a Big East Title is just another trophy and loses some of its luster, but for now it would be a dream come true.
Quote from: jficke13 on February 16, 2023, 09:25:48 PM
I know that generally speaking you go into the conference tourney week largely locked into place on your seed and it's real hard to move based on either a bad or a good result, but I think any BET title would necessarily require you to take down at least 2 top 4ish seeds (Creighton, UCONN, X, PC in some combo). If we're hovering on the edge of a seed line, cutting the nets in NYC might be enough to bump us up a line simply because that's at a minimum a couple big time wins. Maybe I'm being overly optimistic though. Generally speaking I enjoy winning more than I enjoy losing, and I swear in the long time I've followed this team we've had terrible conference tourney results. It'd be fun to get some success in one for a change.
Yes, thats why I think we could still move up to a 2 seed.
If we win out(not expecting to). Thats a really good chance for 3 more Q1 wins. Creighton obviously and then the last two at MSG.
I do think though that if there are MSG upsets and either the semi final or the final ends up being someone someone other than the other 4 top 5 teams, we would not move up to a 2.
Normally conference tournies down mean much. But I think snagging 2 more Q1s on top of a hypothetical 17-3 conference record would move the needle.
Quote from: The Sultan of Semantics on February 16, 2023, 04:20:04 PM
Yep. In 2003, we were ranked 11th this exact same week. And in 2013, the last time in the Elite 8, we never were this highly ranked. I get that it's not LIKELY. But it certainly more likely now than it has been in awhile.
But willie's gonna willie.
And Sultans gonna be Bozo the clown.
Pumping the brakes a tad is simply being cautiously optimistic. But hey, you are the all knowing prophet.
Quote from: MU82 on February 16, 2023, 11:06:24 PM
Reasonable take, CR.
All I'll add is that great programs win a LOT in the NCAA tournament. They regularly reach the second weekend and advance fairly often to the Elite Eight and Final Four. I want Marquette to be that great program again -- the elusive "Next Villanova," as it has been termed on Scoop. Now, of course, one way to pave the way for regular NCAAT success is to be a protected seed year after year. So having great regular seasons and having great NCAATs co-exist very nicely.
I would add that those great programs regularly win conference tournaments too, or at least make it to the tournament final, something MU has never done in the Big East.
My opinion about the value of losing early in conference tournaments to "rest up" for the NCAA tournament is that it's a consolation prize for losers.
A lot of the examples of teams that have won conference tournaments and then flamed out early in the NCAA (like Georgetown a few years ago) are teams that weren't that good that happened to get hot for a weekend. They lose in the NCAA because they aren't that good and return to earth a week later.
There are many, many examples of conference tournament champions that have gone on to win the NCAA title, or reach the Final Four. Those are the elite championship caliber teams, not ones that just caught lightning in a bottle.
The original Villanova won several regular season and conference tournament championships in addition to its postseason success. IMHO that should be the goal.
The big tourney is the thing but the Big East tournament still holds a lot of cache and given Marquette's rather pedestrian results in it, I'd like to see them playing Saturday night
Quote from: willie warrior on February 17, 2023, 03:43:59 AM
And Sultans gonna be Bozo the clown.
Pumping the brakes a tad is simply being cautiously optimistic. But hey, you are the all knowing prophet.
Exactly. The first thing that always comes to mind when reading your posts over the last few years is "optimistic."
Let's hope we don't draw Abilene Christian aina
Quote from: wisblue on February 17, 2023, 05:48:28 AM
I would add that those great programs regularly win conference tournaments too, or at least make it to the tournament final, something MU has never done in the Big East.
My opinion about the value of losing early in conference tournaments to "rest up" for the NCAA tournament is that it's a consolation prize for losers.
A lot of the examples of teams that have won conference tournaments and then flamed out early in the NCAA (like Georgetown a few years ago) are teams that weren't that good that happened to get hot for a weekend. They lose in the NCAA because they aren't that good and return to earth a week later.
There are many, many examples of conference tournament champions that have gone on to win the NCAA title, or reach the Final Four. Those are the elite championship caliber teams, not ones that just caught lightning in a bottle.
The original Villanova won several regular season and conference tournament championships in addition to its postseason success. IMHO that should be the goal.
All reasonable. Of course, any of us can find examples of worthy conference champions who flame out early in the NCAAs, with Virginia being Exhibit #1 and plenty of others, but those are probably the outliers.
Quote from: Uncle Rico on February 17, 2023, 08:01:00 AM
The big tourney is the thing but the Big East tournament still holds a lot of cache and given Marquette's rather pedestrian results in it, I'd like to see them playing Saturday night
Also fair. Look, I'll certainly be happy if Marquette wins the BET. All I did was say the NCAAT matters more to me because, as you said, it's "the thing."
The good thing is none of us is forced to choose. We're all just gonna watch and cheer and let Shaka's squad take us along for the ride. Hopefully the ride lasts all the way till April!
Quote from: MU82 on February 17, 2023, 10:13:02 AM
All reasonable. Of course, any of us can find examples of worthy conference champions who flame out early in the NCAAs, with Virginia being Exhibit #1 and plenty of others, but those are probably the outliers.
Also fair. Look, I'll certainly be happy if Marquette wins the BET. All I did was say the NCAAT matters more to me because, as you said, it's "the thing."
The good thing is none of us is forced to choose. We're all just gonna watch and cheer and let Shaka's squad take us along for the ride. Hopefully the ride lasts all the way till April!
Haven't you been the conductor on the "these are 18-22 year old male freak athletes who get super long timeouts every 4 minutes. They shouldn't need rest" train? Now you're conducting the, "I wouldn't mind if our 18-22 year old male freak athletes get 2 extra days of rest, when they'll already be getting a minimum of 4 days of rest even if they win a BET title" train?