After Villinova
Go Warriors!
Cool. Nice re-emergence to the rankings.
Road wins in the Big East are huge
MU was #23 in kenpom yesterday before the win.
Quote from: CountryRoads on December 31, 2022, 07:36:05 PM
MU was #23 in kenpom yesterday before the win.
What are the odds?
Quote from: CountryRoads on December 31, 2022, 07:36:05 PM
MU was #23 in kenpom yesterday before the win.
Proving that Big East road wins are worthless
Quote from: TSmith34 on December 31, 2022, 07:58:42 PM
Proving that Big East road wins are worthless
Looks like Billy Packer was right
Proving that when the Pomeroy algorithm predicts a 1 point loss and you get a 2 point win things won't change much.
Quote from: MuMark on December 31, 2022, 08:28:47 PM
Proving that when the Pomeroy algorithm predicts a 1 point loss and you get a 2 point win things won't change much.
Scoop won't understand
Up to 18 after the win. 6th in offense. 3 Big East Teams with top 10 offenses.
Don't look at the defensive number, though
Quote from: Uncle Rico on January 03, 2023, 08:11:20 PM
Up to 18 after the win. 6th in offense. 3 Big East Teams with top 10 offenses.
Don't look at the defensive number, though
Tell me, I hate cliffhangers
Quote from: DoctorV on January 03, 2023, 08:12:21 PM
Tell me, I hate cliffhangers
79 which doesn't sound terrible but basically is
All Marquettes reach equilibrium.
I'd imagine the offense slides back to reality some and the defense improves into the top 50 as the season progresses.
This isn't a poor defensive team.
Quote from: DoctorV on January 03, 2023, 08:16:03 PM
All Marquettes reach equilibrium.
I'd imagine the offense slides back to reality some and the defense improves into the top 50 as the season progresses.
This isn't a poor defensive team.
It's not a good defensive team
Quote from: Uncle Rico on January 03, 2023, 08:24:40 PM
It's not a good defensive team
Worse than last year? That team defended very poorly when it mattered most
Quote from: DoctorV on January 03, 2023, 08:26:15 PM
Worse than last year? That team defended very poorly when it mattered most
I think it's worse because teams are shooting better against this years team. More turnovers, less blocked shots. They miss the minutes Kuath gave them defensively but it's a trade off for a much better offense.
We have seen more tough shots hit against us and more low percentage guys get hot. I think our D has forced a lot of tough shots, but a lot have been made. That cannot go on all season.
Quote from: Goose on January 03, 2023, 08:33:29 PM
We have seen more tough shots hit against us and more low percentage guys get hot. I think our D has forced a lot of tough shots, but a lot have been made. That cannot go on all season.
Goose, where would you slot our overall ceiling? Ty.
Muggsy
I think the ceiling might be pretty high. I want to see the next few games before I start getting ahead of myself. That being said, this could end up being a special team and season. They have a lot different ways to make like difficult for the opponent and that is big.
What do you think?
Winning out gets MU to 27-4. Likely a two seed. That is MU's ceiling.
Quote from: tower912 on January 03, 2023, 08:39:09 PM
Winning out gets MU to 27-4. Likely a two seed. That is MU's ceiling.
If Marquette is 27-4 and a two seed, I'll March to Indy myself the confront the selection committee.
Quote from: Goose on January 03, 2023, 08:33:29 PM
We have seen more tough shots hit against us and more low percentage guys get hot. I think our D has forced a lot of tough shots, but a lot have been made. That cannot go on all season.
Especially the threes that are released
just before the shot clock expires! The most aggravating hot shooting was by UW.
Anybody but them would have been merely annoying and written off as "just one of those things".
Before I specifically answer your question Goose here are the positives I've seen to this point:
1) MU has 3/4 consistently good offensive players. Kam being more patient in particular has helped this team exponentially. In other words we have spurtability.
2) We're extremely dangerous when we turn our opponents over and have space in the open floor.
3) We are taking care of the rock. Huge stat that cannot be glossed over.
4) I don't care about the stats of the Freshmen, we have seen they all can contribute if needed.
5) We may have a star emerging in O-Max
6) We have not looked tired at the end of games.
7) I trust Shaka and his game adjustments
Now, the rebounding and overall physicality is a game by game problem. I think we can fundamentally be better with our box outs and overall help D on dribble penetration.
I don't see a dominant team Goose but a power ball club is a tough match up for us. That said I truly believe we should finish top 4 in our league and our ceiling is 2. Therefore a top 4 NCAA seed is in play imo.
.
Quote from: tower912 on January 03, 2023, 08:39:09 PM
Winning out gets MU to 27-4. Likely a two seed. That is MU's ceiling.
This made me look. 7 of the last 12 one seeds had 4 or more losses and only 2 two seeds had 4 or fewer.
2022 NCAA Tournament bracket seed list
1. Gonzaga (26-4)
2. Arizona (31-3)
3. Kansas (28-6)
4. Baylor (26-6)
5. Auburn (27-5)
6. Kentucky (26-7)
7. Villanova (26-7)
8. Duke (28-6)
.....
2021 NCAA Tournament bracket seed list
1. Gonzaga (26–0)
2. Baylor (22–2)
3. Illinois (23–6)
4. Michigan (20–4)
5. Alabama (24–6)
6. Ohio State (21–9)
7. Iowa (21–8)
8. Houston (24–3)
....
2019 NCAA Tournament bracket seed list
1. Duke (29 - 5)
2. Virginia (29 - 3)
3. North Carolina (27 - 6)
4. Gonzaga (30 - 3)
5. Tennessee (29 - 4)
6. Michigan St. (28 - 6)
7. Kentucky (27 - 6)
8. Michigan (28 - 6)
....
John Fanta: "How does a Top 10 KenPom offense come to fruition?"
Shaka: "You'll have to ask KenPom."
Lol. What a line.
Quote from: Uncle Rico on January 03, 2023, 08:30:17 PM
I think it's worse because teams are shooting better against this years team. More turnovers, less blocked shots. They miss the minutes Kuath gave them defensively but it's a trade off for a much better offense.
Agreed...and the style of defense we play...I think we could improve our defensive numbers tomorrow...at the cost of our offensive numbers.
What I like about the defense this year is they force a lot of difficult shots late in the shot clock and they avoid the silly reach in fouls. A lot more discipline this season. Plus, they appear to have the ability to shift up a gear or two when needed.
Quote from: Goose on January 04, 2023, 06:44:44 AM
What I like about the defense this year is they force a lot of difficult shots late in the shot clock and they avoid the silly reach in fouls. A lot more discipline this season. Plus, they appear to have the ability to shift up a gear or two when needed.
They have so far. I think they'll be susceptible to halves like last night that extend full game. The lack of a true interior presence limits how good the defense can be
MU's defense is generally solid until the shot goes up. The defensive rebounding issues hurt.
Rico
I agree. I thought at halftime last night that only we would lose the game would be in a blowout. They found a way to turn it around and get the win. They are missing the presence of Kur type defender.
Quote from: Goose on January 04, 2023, 06:52:23 AM
Rico
I agree. I thought at halftime last night that only we would lose the game would be in a blowout. They found a way to turn it around and get the win. They are missing the presence of Kur type defender.
When we get to March, matchups will really matter as much as seeding for this particular team. I suppose we could argue that's always the case, but I'd be more bullish seeing them matchup against inefficient offenses.
Quote from: Goose on January 04, 2023, 06:52:23 AM
Rico
I agree. I thought at halftime last night that only we would lose the game would be in a blowout. They found a way to turn it around and get the win. They are missing the presence of Kur type defender.
I was hoping that Ben would develop into at least a passable one (no pun intended), but he is simply not there. Too slow and does not see plays developing in time to position himself to defend. I think he has a good chance of getting there eventually.
Quote from: Goose on January 04, 2023, 06:52:23 AM
Rico
I agree. I thought at halftime last night that only we would lose the game would be in a blowout. They found a way to turn it around and get the win. They are missing the presence of Kur type defender.
Oso is capable of being that Kur type defender. It's too bad he doesn't have a capable backup like Kur had last year. He can't risk foul trouble and he's much too important to the offense this year to play as aggressive as Kur defensively.
Would be nice to have that luxury to hang with the big boys in March.
Oso's defense is good. For example, he made Dixon try a difficult fade-away to try to tie the game on Saturday, and he holds his ground well considering he gives up bulk to most other centers. He is quick, he'll challenge perimeter players attempting 3s, he's not foul-prone, and he is 6th in the conference in blocks at almost 2 a game.
But our defense asks him to do a lot of switching and he often ends up outside. A pretty large percentage of points the opposing big scores are done against one of our guards who has had to switch onto the big. Rarely are those on Oso.
1318WWells also makes an excellent point that Oso has to be a little more careful than Kuath was last year. Kur could go for every single block because Shaka rarely played him more than half a game. It's like a starting pitcher knowing he won't even go 5 innings -- just keep firing 100 mph fastballs.
Oso is better than Kur in every way except blocking shots, and he is pretty good at that, too. Kur totally disappeared down the stretch last season, he was a poor rebounder despite his size, and he perfected the missed dunk including a couple of game-changers. There's a reason Shaka only played Kuath about 15 minutes a game down the stretch -- he wasn't playing well. Shaka not only preferred Oso more, but he started to even prefer Lewis or O-Max at the 5 when we went to small-ball.
For this season alone, I wish we had a Kuath-type backup to play 10 mpg. But for the long-term, I like Gold more. He can develop into a nice 4/5 who can score from all levels.
Quote from: 1318WWells on January 04, 2023, 07:40:54 AM
Oso is capable of being that Kur type defender.
Not when it comes to blocking shots. Oso won't get there. Can't.
Moved back to #20 after last night's games. Probably because our friends to the west beat Minnesota by 3 and are now ranked 49th.
Quote from: MUDPT on January 04, 2023, 08:25:18 AM
Moved back to #20 after last night's games. Probably because our friends to the west beat Minnesota by 3 and are now ranked 49th.
"Our friends"? ;D Yeah, their success is good for Marquette's NET, so until Selection Sunday, its good when they win. After that? Kolek 'em.
Quote from: Scoop Snoop on January 04, 2023, 08:29:45 AM
"Our friends"? ;D Yeah, their success is good for Marquette's NET, so until Selection Sunday, its good when they win. After that? Kolek 'em.
I'll never root for 'em, and I'll be happy when they lose, especially to bad teams. But if they happen to win, we get small consolation that it helps our NET. That's how I look at it.
Quote from: Scoop Snoop on January 04, 2023, 07:31:15 AM
I was hoping that Ben would develop into at least a passable one (no pun intended), but he is simply not there. Too slow and does not see plays developing in time to position himself to defend. I think he has a good chance of getting there eventually.
Ben has struggled at times defensively, but has also shown a willingness to scrap and has had some good moments defensively. He's definitely a good prospect and I'm excited to see hime progress during his time at MU. He's going to be extremely important to the program as there's really no "big" in the pipeline.
Quote from: MUDPT on January 04, 2023, 08:25:18 AM
Moved back to #20 after last night's games. Probably because our friends to the west beat Minnesota by 3 and are now ranked 49th.
WI dropped 7 places in the NET after only beating MN by 3 at home, MN rose 6 spots in the NET for losing to WI.
I have said for years that winning programs are not watching past opponent's W/L's because of Kenpom rating. MU is not there yet, but if they take care of business I don't care what any past opponent does on a given night. Again, MU is not there yet, but getting closer every week.
Quote from: tower912 on January 03, 2023, 08:39:09 PM
Winning out gets MU to 27-4. Likely a two seed. That is MU's ceiling.
NC for me is ceiling.
T-Rank has Marquette as the 13th best team in the country. I know it's not all that meaningful in the grand scheme of things but it is always nice when the eye test and the stat nerds agree that this team is legit!
Quote from: Carl on January 05, 2023, 07:45:32 PM
T-Rank has Marquette as the 13th best team in the country. I know it's not all that meaningful in the grand scheme of things but it is always nice when the eye test and the stat nerds agree that this team is legit!
And Ken Pom has us at 17 now. Highest we've been in Ken Pom at any point in-season since 2012. The 2013 Elite 8 team peaked at 21 on February 23 heading into a game against Villanova which we lost.
Defense has to start traveling. Only Xavier's is worse inside the top 30.
Quote from: Scoop Snoop on January 04, 2023, 08:29:45 AM
After that? Kolek 'em.
Gotta admit, I am liking Kolek as a verb.
Quote from: withoutbias on January 05, 2023, 08:46:06 PM
Defense has to start traveling. Only Xavier's is worse inside the top 30.
Isn't our defensive rating impacted by the fast pace the offense plays at? Or are there built-in adjustments in the defensive rating formulas to account for that?
Quote from: BrewCity83 on January 06, 2023, 10:57:48 AM
Isn't our defensive rating impacted by the fast pace the offense plays at? Or are there built-in adjustments in the defensive rating formulas to account for that?
Hope I am understanding your question... most of the ratings these days are "tempo free". It is points given per possession, not points per game. So if you play at a fast pace it is taken into account.
Our defense at this point is not great. Better than some of Wojo's defenses for sure, but not great.
Quote from: MarquetteDano on January 06, 2023, 11:05:15 AM
Hope I am understanding your question... most of the ratings these days are "tempo free". It is points given per possession, not points per game. So if you play at a fast pace it is taken into account.
Our defense at this point is not great. Better than some of Wojo's defenses for sure, but not great.
That does answer my question--thanks.
The thing with our defense, though, is it has been great when it's needed to be. Second half at Nova was dominant. Locked down Wisky to allow the comeback, even if we ultimately lost. Against Purdue and Providence it was the offense down the stretch, not the defense, that cost us.
It hasn't been 40 minutes good, that's for sure, but it can lock down. If the staff can get consistent defensive efforts like we've seen in spurts, this is a team with third weekend upside.
Quote from: brewcity77 on January 06, 2023, 12:12:26 PM
The thing with our defense, though, is it has been great when it's needed to be. Second half at Nova was dominant. Locked down Wisky to allow the comeback, even if we ultimately lost. Against Purdue and Providence it was the offense down the stretch, not the defense, that cost us.
It hasn't been 40 minutes good, that's for sure, but it can lock down. If the staff can get consistent defensive efforts like we've seen in spurts, this is a team with third weekend upside.
I don't have Synergy or an equivalent tool at my disposal, but my thought is, outside of our poor defensive rebounding, our half court defense is decent enough. I would like to see how poor we are at transition defense though. No stats to back it up, but it seems bad. Maybe not as bad as our defensive rebounding, but probably our 2nd worst part of our defense.
Transition defense was the big negative change during the February/March swoon last year.