MUScoop

MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: oldwarrior81 on March 11, 2022, 11:25:09 AM

Title: plus / minus
Post by: oldwarrior81 on March 11, 2022, 11:25:09 AM
here are the plus/minus ratings over the last 10 conf games plus the tourney game

+43   Lewis
+20   Morsell
+14   Kolek
+12   Prosper
+10   Mitchell
+  8   Kuath
+  1   Ighodaro
-   5   Joplin
- 11   Jones
- 43   Elliott   




Title: Re: plus / minus
Post by: StillWarriors on March 11, 2022, 01:50:02 PM
Quote from: oldwarrior81 on March 11, 2022, 11:25:09 AM
here are the plus/minus ratings over the last 10 conf games plus the tourney game

+43   Lewis
+20   Morsell
+14   Kolek
+12   Prosper
+10   Mitchell
+  8   Kuath
+  1   Ighodaro
-   5   Joplin
- 11   Jones
- 43   Elliott

WOW.

Title: Re: plus / minus
Post by: MUfan12 on March 11, 2022, 01:52:22 PM
I don't know why Greg is getting as much run as he is.
Title: Re: plus / minus
Post by: MU82 on March 11, 2022, 01:57:22 PM
+/- is a flawed stat, but there are some telling things there.

Kam and especially Greg have hurt us the last month. They stopped shooting at a high percentage, which exposes their numerous weaknesses.

I was surprised Kuath was a plus at all. He's been quite disappointing. Mitchell, meanwhile, has come on.

This also reinforces how much better Justin is than anybody else on the team. Some have wondered why Shaka has benched this guy or that guy but not Justin. That's why. We have one stud and a bunch of role players, and we can't win without the stud on the floor.
Title: Re: plus / minus
Post by: DrJay24 on March 11, 2022, 02:00:24 PM
Quote from: MU82 on March 11, 2022, 01:57:22 PM
+/- is a flawed stat, but there are some telling things there.

Kam and especially Greg have hurt us the last month. They stopped shooting at a high percentage, which exposes their numerous weaknesses.

I was surprised Kuath was a plus at all. He's been quite disappointing. Mitchell, meanwhile, has come on.

This also reinforces how much better Justin is than anybody else on the team. Some have wondered why Shaka has benched this guy or that guy but not Justin. That's why. We have one stud and a bunch of role players, and we can't win without the stud on the floor.

Shaka is good at recognizing nights when Kuath can't play and gets him on the bench quickly, so that plus minus is misleading compared to some other guys that get more rope / simply can't get stuck on the bench all night.
Title: Re: plus / minus
Post by: PointWarrior on March 11, 2022, 03:50:17 PM
Amazing Elliot is as bad as our best player is good...  disappointing Shaka keeps putting him out there...
Title: Re: plus / minus
Post by: Elonsmusk on March 11, 2022, 04:18:35 PM
Quote from: PointWarrior on March 11, 2022, 03:50:17 PM
Amazing Elliot is as bad as our best player is good...  disappointing Shaka keeps putting him out there...

Hopefully the staff makes the adjustment and reduces Greg's role to situational in Round 1.  He's been a good kid while at MU and remained loyal to the school.  Yet, given his play these last 10 games he's hurt the team.
Title: Re: plus / minus
Post by: panda on March 11, 2022, 04:23:17 PM
Quote from: Elonsmusk on March 11, 2022, 04:18:35 PM
Hopefully the staff makes the adjustment and reduces Greg's role to situational in Round 1.  He's been a good kid while at MU and remained loyal to the school.  Yet, given his play these last 10 games he's hurt the team.

This has been my one complaint towards the staff. Mitchell has been coming on strong and his play warrants more minutes. Joplin brings more offensively at this point than Elliott. This isn't the time to feel bad for kids. Need to put the best five on the floor.
Title: Re: plus / minus
Post by: lawdog77 on March 11, 2022, 05:24:10 PM
Quote from: MU82 on March 11, 2022, 01:57:22 PM
+/- is a flawed stat, but there are some telling things there.

Kam and especially Greg have hurt us the last month. They stopped shooting at a high percentage, which exposes their numerous weaknesses.

I was surprised Kuath was a plus at all. He's been quite disappointing. Mitchell, meanwhile, has come on.

This also reinforces how much better Justin is than anybody else on the team. Some have wondered why Shaka has benched this guy or that guy but not Justin. That's why. We have one stud and a bunch of role players, and we can't win without the stud on the floor.
last 10 games-kam is shooting 41% from 3, with 5 total turnovers.  He has not been hurting us. In fact, he needed more run
Title: Re: plus / minus
Post by: MU82 on March 11, 2022, 07:08:50 PM
Quote from: lawdog77 on March 11, 2022, 05:24:10 PM
last 10 games-kam is shooting 41% from 3, with 5 total turnovers.  He has not been hurting us. In fact, he needed more run

During that stretch, Kam went 9-16 in the Georgetown and regular-season Creighton game. In the other eight games, he shot 33%, and that counts two meaningless prayers that went in at the buzzer of lost games.

He's also hasn't learned the difference between a good shot and bad, and he's lost on defense.

I say all that as a guy who is  VERY high on Kam. I think there's a good chance he's our go-to guy next season.
Title: Re: plus / minus
Post by: Elonsmusk on March 11, 2022, 07:31:52 PM
Quote from: MU82 on March 11, 2022, 07:08:50 PM
During that stretch, Kam went 9-16 in the Georgetown and regular-season Creighton game. In the other eight games, he shot 33%, and that counts two meaningless prayers that went in at the buzzer of lost games.

He's also hasn't learned the difference between a good shot and bad, and he's lost on defense.

I say all that as a guy who is  VERY high on Kam. I think there's a good chance he's our go-to guy next season.

Greg Elliott is 7 for his last 36 from 3 in the last 10 games.  He's a worse defender than Kam too.  Maybe a slightly better rebounder.  I think Shaka is hoping to get some "senior magic" out of Elliott but it just hasn't happened.
Title: Re: plus / minus
Post by: Dr. Blackheart on March 11, 2022, 07:50:29 PM
To be fair to Greg, his ankle is pretty banged up.
Title: Re: plus / minus
Post by: panda on March 11, 2022, 07:52:12 PM
Quote from: Dr. Blackheart on March 11, 2022, 07:50:29 PM
To be fair to Greg, his ankle is pretty banged up.
Title: Re: plus / minus
Post by: MU82 on March 11, 2022, 07:53:14 PM
Quote from: Elonsmusk on March 11, 2022, 07:31:52 PM
Greg Elliott is 7 for his last 36 from 3 in the last 10 games.  He's a worse defender than Kam too.  Maybe a slightly better rebounder.  I think Shaka is hoping to get some "senior magic" out of Elliott but it just hasn't happened.

I'm not arguing with you. I'd be playing Greg less.

You've been fun when it comes to Shaka, Ners. It's only been OK to criticize him when you say it's OK to criticize him.
Title: Re: plus / minus
Post by: jfp61 on March 11, 2022, 08:19:37 PM
Quote from: Dr. Blackheart on March 11, 2022, 07:50:29 PM
To be fair to Greg, his ankle is pretty banged up.

Seems like something this coach should deal with
Title: Re: plus / minus
Post by: Dr. Blackheart on March 11, 2022, 08:21:55 PM
Quote from: jfp61 on March 11, 2022, 08:19:37 PM
Seems like something this coach should deal with

I agree. Don't blame the player, blame (or credit) the coach.
Title: Re: plus / minus
Post by: Elonsmusk on March 11, 2022, 08:23:50 PM
Quote from: MU82 on March 11, 2022, 07:53:14 PM
I'm not arguing with you. I'd be playing Greg less.

You've been fun when it comes to Shaka, Ners. It's only been OK to criticize him when you say it's OK to criticize him.

I'm not sure what you're referencing.  It's fine to criticize Shaka.  Doesn't mean I'll agree with all of it.
Title: Re: plus / minus
Post by: MU82 on March 12, 2022, 12:33:08 AM
Quote from: Elonsmusk on March 11, 2022, 08:23:50 PM
I'm not sure what you're referencing.  It's fine to criticize Shaka.  Doesn't mean I'll agree with all of it.

Ok. I seem to remember you in the past saying shaddup don't criticize Shaka, but it's totally possible I'm misremembering. If so, never mind.

We both want the same thing, Marquette hoops to be great.
Title: Re: plus / minus
Post by: lawdog77 on March 12, 2022, 06:03:56 AM
Quote from: MU82 on March 11, 2022, 07:08:50 PM


He's also hasn't learned the difference between a good shot and bad, and he's lost on defense.


Kam's  3 pt shooting in those other 8 games
14 minutes- 2/5 3pt- Loss
11 min -0/1-Win
15 min-1/5-L
19 min- 1/3-Win
13 min-1/3 L
15 min-1/3 L
18 min-2/3 Win
19 min- 2/7 L

I'd say only the Providence game when he went 2/7 is the only game where your hyperbole above was true. If anything, he was not shooting enough (defenses adjusting might have that effect).During our win streak, every game except Villanova, he shot 5+ 3 pointers a game.

I'm not throwing the reason we lost games on Kam. He does need to get back his confidence, though.

Title: Re: plus / minus
Post by: rocky_warrior on March 12, 2022, 09:17:28 AM
Quote from: oldwarrior81 on March 11, 2022, 11:25:09 AM
here are the plus/minus ratings over the last 10 conf games plus the tourney game

+43   Lewis
+20   Morsell
+14   Kolek
+12   Prosper
+10   Mitchell
+  8   Kuath
+  1   Ighodaro
-   5   Joplin
- 11   Jones
- 43   Elliott

This is only interesting to me if someone can also pull up the +/- from the 7 game winning streak.  I don't know, but suspect Elliott would be near the top of the list, which also explains why he's still getting plenty of run.  My Theory: For Marquette to be good this year, Eliiott needs to be good.  I think Shaka knows this. 

Though, not denying he has played poorly lately.
Title: Re: plus / minus
Post by: StillWarriors on March 12, 2022, 09:33:17 AM
Quote from: rocky_warrior on March 12, 2022, 09:17:28 AM
This is only interesting to me if someone can also pull up the +/- from the 7 game winning streak.  I don't know, but suspect Elliott would be near the top of the list, which also explains why he's still getting plenty of run.  My Theory: For Marquette to be good this year, Eliiott needs to be good.  I think Shaka knows this. 

Though, not denying he has played poorly lately.

I think he was 61% from 3 during that stretch or something absurd like that, so I'm sure there is quite a difference. Ultimately, he and/or Kam hitting is a huge boost because JLewis and sometimes Morsell are the only other ones that can do it on a consistent basis. On nights when one of Greg or Kam are hitting, ride the hot hand for the majority of those minutes. When both struggle, MU is going to struggle unless someone else gets hot. Xavier has experienced similar issues with Kunkel and Nate Johnson, though they have much larger roles for X.
Title: Re: plus / minus
Post by: PaintTouches on March 12, 2022, 09:42:55 AM
From Jan 4 through Feb 2, the 8-1 stretch, here are the On/Off numbers per Hoop-Explorer (per 100 possessions adjusted for opponent quality filtering out garbage time).

Greg
Net Rtg On: +34.2 (121.1 O, 88.0 D)
Net Rtg Off: +29.5 (120.4 O, 91.0 D)
NET Diff: +4.7

Kam:
Net Rtg On: +31.7 (119.6 O, 87.9 D)
Net Rtg Off: +31.6 (122.3 O, 90.7 D)
NET Diff: +0.1

Since Feb 8:

Greg
Net Rtg On: +0.7 (106.4 O, 105.7 D)
Net Rtg Off: -15.7 (114.2 O, 98.5 D)
NET Diff: -15.0

Kam:
Net Rtg On: -1.2 (113.6 O, 114.8 D)
Net Rtg Off: +14.7 (108.4 O, 93.7 D)
NET: -15.9

TL;DR
MU is basically 15 points worse when Kam or Greg are On since UConn, vs being slightly better with both on during the 8-1 stretch.
Title: Re: plus / minus
Post by: rocky_warrior on March 12, 2022, 10:39:33 AM
Quote from: pux90mex on March 12, 2022, 09:42:55 AM
From Jan 4 through Feb 2, the 8-1 stretch, here are the On/Off numbers per Hoop-Explorer (per 100 possessions adjusted for opponent quality filtering out garbage time).

Thank you.  Though another question (for anyone), I'm having trouble corroborating oldwarriors +/- numbers for the last 10.  Best I can find is Torvic's player data, which seems to give Greg +10.4 BPM when adding up the last 10.
https://www.barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?year=2022&p=Greg%20Elliott&t=Marquette

But I'm guessing I don't really understand the numbers being posted.
Title: Re: plus / minus
Post by: oldwarrior81 on March 12, 2022, 10:47:15 AM
Quote from: rocky_warrior on March 12, 2022, 10:39:33 AM
Thank you.  Though another question (for anyone), I'm having trouble corroborating oldwarriors +/- numbers for the last 10.  Best I can find is Torvic's player data, which seems to give Greg +10.4 BPM when adding up the last 10.
https://www.barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?year=2022&p=Greg%20Elliott&t=Marquette

But I'm guessing I don't really understand the numbers being posted.

I used the pdf game boxscores on the gomarquette.com website.
I'm assuming they're correct.
Title: Re: plus / minus
Post by: rocky_warrior on March 12, 2022, 10:57:01 AM
Quote from: oldwarrior81 on March 12, 2022, 10:47:15 AM
I used the pdf game boxscores on the gomarquette.com website.
I'm assuming they're correct.

Whoa!  You went through and manually calculated from the Play-by-play?  I don't see it listed as a stat there.
Title: Re: plus / minus
Post by: oldwarrior81 on March 12, 2022, 11:48:08 AM
Season totals game log +/-
https://ibb.co/F7c42fk

sample pdf box score from gomarquette.com
https://ibb.co/0rK69mt
Title: Re: plus / minus
Post by: rocky_warrior on March 12, 2022, 12:06:55 PM
Quote from: oldwarrior81 on March 12, 2022, 11:48:08 AM
sample pdf box score from gomarquette.com
https://ibb.co/0rK69mt

Interesting thanks.  That appears to be from the vs Nova game, but the PDF I see on the site doesn't have the +/-
https://dbukjj6eu5tsf.cloudfront.net/gomarquette.com/stats/mbball/2021/pdf/20220202112629-1989193.pdf

edit: found it.  Funny that they have a different boxscore linked from the recap page than they do from the overall schedule/boxscore page.  https://gomarquette.com/documents/2022/2/2/1989193.PDF
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