Is it time for Morsell to play less?
In conference play he has the one of the worst offensive and defensive efficiencies on the team when you filter out garbage time. (third worst offensive rating only ahead of Mitchell and Ellis, and the 5th worst defensive rating ahead of Omax, Jones, Ellis, and Joplin) Despite this he still has the second highest usage rate on the team. He is 3rd in minutes.
Offensively, in conference play Morsell is opting on taking tougher twos than he was earlier in the year. While not being able to draw fouls anymore. Currently, Kolek draws the same amount of FT/per possession in conference play. Earlier he was taking nearly equal amounts of two point shots and three point shots.
More shockingly defensively, in conference play Morsell is not a strong defender this year.
In 698 conference possessions so far, Marquette with morsell has a defensive ppp is 1.033. In 307 defensive possessions without morsell, their defensive ppp is 0.945.
Even when you adjust those possessions for the strength of the players Marquette is up against. With Morsell MU's adjusted defensive ppp is 0.965. Without Morsell MU's adjusted defensive ppp is 0.883.
Lastly the home road splits.
At home Morsell has a box offensive rating of 114.8 on offense and 100.4 on defense. This is a net rating of +14.4. Away from the fiserv Morsell has a box offensive rating of 84.5 on offense and 102.8 on defense. This is a net rating of -18.3.
Even Bartorvik has him as the Marquette player with the lowest "Points Over Replacement Per Adjusted Game at that Usage" in conference play. Beneath Kam Jones who only plays 38 % of minutes. This should be nearly impossible with the usage rate Morsell currently has.
https://hoop-explorer.com/OnOffAnalyzer?autoOffQuery=true&baseQuery=&calcRapm=true&filterGarbage=true&gender=Men&maxRank=400&minRank=0&offQuery=&onQuery=&queryFilters=Conf&showExpanded=true&showGrades=rank%3ACombo&team=Marquette&year=2021%2F22&
https://www.barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?link=y&ocvalue=undefined&tvalue=Marquette&year=2022&minmin=38&c=1&start=20211101&end=20220501
Every once in a while we see in him the tough, strong "prototypical Big East Guard" play both on defense and when he takes control on O. Problem is, he's playing against "prototypical Big East Guards" many of whom have been doing it longer in the big east and understand the style, the officiating, and the opponents tendencies.
I liked that he played only 20 mins against Gtown and the younger guys got some run against a crap team. It's good for the future.
Morsell needs to play a lot of minutes when we are playing good teams or better. He is a man and needs to be on the floor, regardless of offensive output.
He's been streaky, that's for sure. But Shaka's done a good job of riding the hot hand and sitting a cold one.
I don't care what metric you show me, there is no way that his possible replacements (Elliott or Jones) are better defenders, either one on one, def rebounding, or team defending.
Now are Jones and Elliott better shooters? Sure. But a lot of their shots are due to other players creating openings for them. At this point in their careers Jones and Elliott cannot consistently create shots for themselves or others like Morsell can.
So Morsell is better defensively and, at worst, is a little worse than those two offensively. And that is why Shaka typically still plays Morsell more than the others.
In Shaka I trust.
Quote from: Goose on February 17, 2022, 11:06:01 AM
Morsell needs to play a lot of minutes when we are playing good teams or better. He is a man and needs to be on the floor, regardless of offensive output.
I thought that too, until i took this deep dive and saw the defense is the problem. Which is confusing to me, but its not incorrect.
We overpressure up high and he gets burned a bit. It's kind of frustrating. I don't mind the soft traps to try to control tempo but the last few games we've gotten torched off the bounce and teams are getting open looks. I get trying to force turns and deflections but force teams to score over the top and keep them out of the paint.
jf, you've put stats on what we've all seen. Kind of have to agree though with the folks questioning if there's a better defender on the pine. Given Shaka's outperforming by far what I had expected, he can make the call.
Quote from: MarquetteDano on February 17, 2022, 11:14:58 AM
I don't care what metric you show me, there is no way that his possible replacements (Elliott or Jones) are better defenders, either one on one, def rebounding, or team defending.
Now are Jones and Elliott better shooters? Sure. But a lot of their shots are due to other players creating openings for them. At this point in their careers Jones and Elliott cannot consistently create shots for themselves or others like Morsell can.
So Morsell is better defensively and, at worst, is a little worse than those two offensively. And that is why Shaka typically still plays Morsell more than the others.
In Shaka I trust.
I don't personally think Morsell is a worse defender than either Kam Jones or Greg Elliot. Anyone who watches basketball won't think that. But our defense is worse with Morsell on the court in conference play than it is when Greg Elliot is on the court.
Also you are underselling how vastly superior Jones and Elliot are offensively. Looking at conference play, and filtering out garbage time
Morsell has a box rating of 97.6 on offense and 101.1 on defense.
Elliot has a box rating of 116.4 on offense and 101 on defense.
Jones has a box rating of 119.1 on offense and 105.8 on defense.
This isn't to say lets play Elliot and Jones together, those lineups have been very bad. But i am wondering if this is something Shaka might be considering going forward.
Those numbers are great, but without the minutes played there's limited value there.
Using T rank, Moresell is 2nd on the team in defensive value to JLew within conference. On/off metrics can be misleading. Better to use advanced stats.
Also, if you look at Value Add, he is 2nd in the country in defensive value add behind Tshiebwe.
https://www.valueaddbasketball.com/
The problem is Elliott and Jones are also inconsistent. Every game starts off trying to find out who is going to have a good night and who isn't.
The same goes for Kur, Oso, and O-Max. Lewis is the most consistent player and Kolek is instrumental to running the offense. Those two are the constants. The rest of the rotation gets some run until the best players for that game are determined.
Yes. Shaka rides a hot hand and sits a cold hand or somebody with negative energy.
This thread shows how analysis of a player can be dramatically influenced by your choice of statistics used for the analysis. By one measure, Morsell is essentially Greg Elliott on defense. By another, he is second best in the country.
I trust Shaka to make the right call, but personally I would have him in if we are struggling on defense, and out if we are struggling to score
Quote from: Juan Anderson's Mixtape on February 17, 2022, 12:02:35 PM
The problem is Elliott and Jones are also inconsistent. Every game starts off trying to find out who is going to have a good night and who isn't.
The same goes for Kur, Oso, and O-Max. Lewis is the most consistent player and Kolek is instrumental to running the offense. Those two are the constants. The rest of the rotation gets some run until the best players for that game are determined.
The beauty is that Shaka has been very good at determining who is on and who isn't on a given night. That was a notable weakness of Wojo; he just went with the guys he planned to play
But .. Kam Jones was on fire in the 1H of the Gtown game .. he looked like he was destined for a 30 point game.
.. then he barely saw the floor in the 2H.
Quote from: mu_hilltopper on February 17, 2022, 07:39:22 PM
But .. Kam Jones was on fire in the 1H of the Gtown game .. he looked like he was destined for a 30 point game.
.. then he barely saw the floor in the 2H.
Kam has a chance of being a prime-time/electric scorer. He needs to add some upper body strength and improve his handles a bit. That stroke is pure. I fully expect his arsenal to expand as well as his shot selection.
Quote from: jfp61 on February 17, 2022, 09:42:13 AM
Is it time for Morsell to play less?
In conference play he has the one of the worst offensive and defensive efficiencies on the team when you filter out garbage time. (third worst offensive rating only ahead of Mitchell and Ellis, and the 5th worst defensive rating ahead of Omax, Jones, Ellis, and Joplin) Despite this he still has the second highest usage rate on the team. He is 3rd in minutes.
Offensively, in conference play Morsell is opting on taking tougher twos than he was earlier in the year. While not being able to draw fouls anymore. Currently, Kolek draws the same amount of FT/per possession in conference play. Earlier he was taking nearly equal amounts of two point shots and three point shots.
More shockingly defensively, in conference play Morsell is not a strong defender this year.
In 698 conference possessions so far, Marquette with morsell has a defensive ppp is 1.033. In 307 defensive possessions without morsell, their defensive ppp is 0.945.
Even when you adjust those possessions for the strength of the players Marquette is up against. With Morsell MU's adjusted defensive ppp is 0.965. Without Morsell MU's adjusted defensive ppp is 0.883.
Lastly the home road splits.
At home Morsell has a box offensive rating of 114.8 on offense and 100.4 on defense. This is a net rating of +14.4. Away from the fiserv Morsell has a box offensive rating of 84.5 on offense and 102.8 on defense. This is a net rating of -18.3.
Even Bartorvik has him as the Marquette player with the lowest "Points Over Replacement Per Adjusted Game at that Usage" in conference play. Beneath Kam Jones who only plays 38 % of minutes. This should be nearly impossible with the usage rate Morsell currently has.
https://hoop-explorer.com/OnOffAnalyzer?autoOffQuery=true&baseQuery=&calcRapm=true&filterGarbage=true&gender=Men&maxRank=400&minRank=0&offQuery=&onQuery=&queryFilters=Conf&showExpanded=true&showGrades=rank%3ACombo&team=Marquette&year=2021%2F22&
https://www.barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?link=y&ocvalue=undefined&tvalue=Marquette&year=2022&minmin=38&c=1&start=20211101&end=20220501
Log off and watch the games. Morsell is the best defender on the floor when he walks out of the locker room. The best player on the opposing team is immediately at a disadvantage.
Quote from: mu_hilltopper on February 17, 2022, 07:39:22 PM
But .. Kam Jones was on fire in the 1H of the Gtown game .. he looked like he was destined for a 30 point game.
.. then he barely saw the floor in the 2H.
Thats because he naturally started the second half on the bench. Our starters did really well in the 2nd half, so well that we turned it into an absolute laugher.
By the time Shaka went to subs he did a full line change. And unfortunately for Kam, Shaka stuck with that crappy lineup for too long and the lead was cut in half and we had to ride the starters again.
Kam was supposed to get a ton of PT in the 2nd half Imagine, but Shaka had a rare case of greatly overvaluing a lineup that was simply awful.
I think the heat check three is why he saw the bench more than anything.
Way too much angst over the second half.
Quote from: Clarissa on February 17, 2022, 08:28:38 PM
I think the heat check three is why he saw the bench more than anything.
Way too much angst over the second half.
Well he did drain one before that from about 29 ft. I didn't mind the heat check. Sunday is a huge game for us. I think if we take care of business we are in excellent shape despite the debacle at Butler.
Quote from: Clarissa on February 17, 2022, 08:28:38 PM
I think the heat check three is why he saw the bench more than anything.
Way too much angst over the second half.
Wrong. Shaka was legitimately laughing as he pulled (and talked with) Kam on that shot.
Right about way too much angst over the second half.
Quote from: panda on February 17, 2022, 07:43:15 PM
Log off and watch the games. Morsell is the best defender on the floor when he walks out of the locker room. The best player on the opposing team is immediately at a disadvantage.
What i think morsell is, I dont disagree with you.
But when morsell is on the court, especially in conference play, we lose games. Our team defense is worse with our best defender on the court.
Just the season long on off number should be viewable in the link.
https://hoop-explorer.com/OnOffAnalyzer?autoOffQuery=true&baseQuery=&calcRapm=true&filterGarbage=true&gender=Men&maxRank=400&minRank=0&offQuery=NOT%20%28%22Morsell%2C%20Darryl%22%20%29&onQuery=%22Morsell%2C%20Darryl%22%20&showExpanded=true&team=Marquette&teamDiffs=true&year=2021%2F22&
Quote from: jfp61 on February 17, 2022, 09:31:40 PM
What i think morsell is, I dont disagree with you.
But when morsell is on the court, especially in conference play, we lose games. Our team defense is worse with our best defender on the court.
Just the season long on off number should be viewable in the link.
https://hoop-explorer.com/OnOffAnalyzer?autoOffQuery=true&baseQuery=&calcRapm=true&filterGarbage=true&gender=Men&maxRank=400&minRank=0&offQuery=NOT%20%28%22Morsell%2C%20Darryl%22%20%29&onQuery=%22Morsell%2C%20Darryl%22%20&showExpanded=true&team=Marquette&teamDiffs=true&year=2021%2F22&
There isn't an individual stat to quantify what he does as a perimeter defender. Looking at the guy he guards points total is more indicative. He's limited almost every guard he's been manned up on in conference play. The only perimeter player I remember off the top of my head going nuts is Aiken at home and Morsell switched onto him in the second half and it was curtains.
The team has an 8-5 record in conference play when he's on the court. "His" on off numbers are effected by our team rebounding and second chance opportunities. That's why individual on off numbers aren't the best way to tell the story.
Quote from: panda on February 18, 2022, 05:02:47 AM
There isn't an individual stat to quantify what he does as a perimeter defender. Looking at the guy he guards points total is more indicative. He's limited almost every guard he's been manned up on in conference play. The only perimeter player I remember off the top of my head going nuts is Aiken at home and Morsell switched onto him in the second half and it was curtains.
The team has an 8-5 record in conference play when he's on the court. "His" on off numbers are effected by our team rebounding and second chance opportunities. That's why individual on off numbers aren't the best way to tell the story.
So much of offensive rebounding is knowing they type of shot going up, and being in a possession to capitalize.
In conference play, with morsell on the court, marquette takes too many mid range shots (24% of attempts), out of the scheme of the offense (only 38% assisted.) With Morsell Marquette only makes 36.4% of their midrange attempts.
In conference play, without mosell on the court, marqutte takes 17.9% of their attempts from the midrange, with more coming in the scheme of the offense (48% assisted.) Without Morsell Marquette makes 42.9% of their midrange attempts.
By running our coached offense and not settling, Marquettes offensive rebounding rate goes from 18.6% with morsell up too 28.2% without morsell.
I don't think if this is a black and white thing, I just some light coaching and minutes changes could benefit this team.
Quote from: jfp61 on February 19, 2022, 11:36:29 AM
So much of offensive rebounding is knowing they type of shot going up, and being in a possession to capitalize.
In conference play, with morsell on the court, marquette takes too many mid range shots (24% of attempts), out of the scheme of the offense (only 38% assisted.) With Morsell Marquette only makes 36.4% of their midrange attempts.
In conference play, without mosell on the court, marqutte takes 17.9% of their attempts from the midrange, with more coming in the scheme of the offense (48% assisted.) Without Morsell Marquette makes 42.9% of their midrange attempts.
By running our coached offense and not settling, Marquettes offensive rebounding rate goes from 18.6% with morsell up too 28.2% without morsell.
I don't think if this is a black and white thing, I just some light coaching and minutes changes could benefit this team.
We suffer defensively when he's off the court but I do agree, he does force himself sometimes on the offensive end taking poor shots. Shaka does a good job of sitting him when he does that.
Quote from: jfp61 on February 19, 2022, 11:36:29 AM
So much of offensive rebounding is knowing they type of shot going up, and being in a possession to capitalize.
In conference play, with morsell on the court, marquette takes too many mid range shots (24% of attempts), out of the scheme of the offense (only 38% assisted.) With Morsell Marquette only makes 36.4% of their midrange attempts.
In conference play, without mosell on the court, marqutte takes 17.9% of their attempts from the midrange, with more coming in the scheme of the offense (48% assisted.) Without Morsell Marquette makes 42.9% of their midrange attempts.
By running our coached offense and not settling, Marquettes offensive rebounding rate goes from 18.6% with morsell up too 28.2% without morsell.
I don't think if this is a black and white thing, I just some light coaching and minutes changes could benefit this team.
There was a game within the last few weeks where Morsells ability to create his own shot, aka his midrange game off the dribble that goes unassisted and isn't in the "flow" of the offense, won Marquette the game with a personal 9 pt stretch of mid range buckets. Most mid range shots come off of an iso and dribble to create space and shoot, so there won't be much assisting there. Justin and Darryl are really the only two that can do it on this years team.
He's good at it, it's effective, and there are very few other guys that can create their own shot and do that when push comes to shove against a good defensive team when Marquette is trying to stop a run and needs a bucket.
Darryl taking a mid range shot is a very good part of Marquettes offense, he's done it effectively several times this season and it makes me happy to see him take one when the offense needs a bucket, because like I said he's very good at it.
I'm a numbers guy and I like metrics and all the data that comes with them, but if you watch this years team you know that Darryl's offense has been very valuable to this teams success, and will be needed if they are to survive and advance. I mean he's the second leading scorer on the team by a wide margins, and there aren't many guys that can go get a bucket on their own like he can.
In the season's first four games, Morsell was an offensive revelation, averaging 21 points on almost 60% shooting. In the 21 games since then, he's averaging 10.7 points on 39% shooting.
21 games is big sample size, and the stats he's put up during that nearly 3-month stretch are roughly in line with what he did during 4 seasons at Maryland (8.7 points on 45% shooting).
I don't know whether he hasn't been healthy enough, or opponents started defending him differently, or he simply has reverted to his 4-year norm -- or some combination thereof.
He has had a few good offensive games during these last 3 months, including the one Doctor V mentioned, but those increasingly look like outliers.
I'm glad Shaka brought got Darryl to wrap up his college career at Marquette. He has played fine D in most games.
But he is what he is on offense. Thankfully, several other players have stepped up considerably over the last 2-3 months, including O-Max, Kam and Greg.
That's a fair assessment MU82 but my main point is that I feel like we are grossly undervaluing his production and importance to the team.
In the last 10 conference games alone he's had offensive performances of
26,19,16,15,14 points- all better than his career numbers.
It's not like he's a huge volume shooter either, those numbers came from an average of 10-13 shots.
His defense has been discussed ad nauseam, and all I'll say about that is that sometimes I find myself hoping for more from him on that end but then I realize when he decides to turn it on he's an elite defender that makes huge plays.
He will decide to turn it on at that end in big games down the stretch with his career winding down, so he's definitely a big defensive necessity. He's had two different games with 6 steals in the past month...
Last and main point on this
He's struggled in the last 3 games offensively
9,9,0 pts on 6/27 shooting, 22%.
Coincidentally Marquette has really struggle during that three game stretch also.
This years team needs Darryl Morsell (and Kur for that matter) to be good if it wants to succeed and advance in the Big dance.
Quote from: DoctorV on February 19, 2022, 03:14:09 PM
That's a fair assessment MU82 but my main point is that I feel like we are grossly undervaluing his production and importance to the team.
In the last 10 conference games alone he's had offensive performances of
26,19,16,15,14 points- all better than his career numbers.
It's not like he's a huge volume shooter either, those numbers came from an average of 10-13 shots.
His defense has been discussed ad nauseam, and all I'll say about that is that sometimes I find myself hoping for more from him on that end but then I realize when he decides to turn it on he's an elite defender that makes huge plays.
He will decide to turn it on at that end in big games down the stretch with his career winding down, so he's definitely a big defensive necessity. He's had two different games with 6 steals in the past month...
Last and main point on this
He's struggled in the last 3 games offensively
9,9,0 pts on 6/27 shooting, 22%.
Coincidentally Marquette has really struggle during that three game stretch also.
This years team needs Darryl Morsell (and Kur for that matter) to be good if it wants to succeed and advance in the Big dance.
He's a bucket getter when we need points. There is no metric for that.
Daryl has frustrated me with a lot of his play lately. But its mostly bad decisions. Either sloppy passes or dumb shots that are not part of our offensive flow.
Hes still a huge piece. Hes still been a fantastic addition as a senior leader.
Just someone who needs to sit when he isnt right, and shaka has a good read on that.
Glad to have him and Kur. Both are guys that greatly help us surpise this year, but are also not guys that by simply graduating signal "rebuilding or step back year"
Quote from: DoctorV on February 19, 2022, 03:14:09 PM
That's a fair assessment MU82 but my main point is that I feel like we are grossly undervaluing his production and importance to the team.
In the last 10 conference games alone he's had offensive performances of
26,19,16,15,14 points- all better than his career numbers.
It's not like he's a huge volume shooter either, those numbers came from an average of 10-13 shots.
His defense has been discussed ad nauseam, and all I'll say about that is that sometimes I find myself hoping for more from him on that end but then I realize when he decides to turn it on he's an elite defender that makes huge plays.
He will decide to turn it on at that end in big games down the stretch with his career winding down, so he's definitely a big defensive necessity. He's had two different games with 6 steals in the past month...
Last and main point on this
He's struggled in the last 3 games offensively
9,9,0 pts on 6/27 shooting, 22%.
Coincidentally Marquette has really struggle during that three game stretch also.
This years team needs Darryl Morsell (and Kur for that matter) to be good if it wants to succeed and advance in the Big dance.
Good take.
We need 2 of Morsell, Lewis and Kolek to be "on" to beat good teams, and we'll need all 3 to be on to win in March.
https://twitter.com/painttouches/status/1495821102072975360?s=21