In 2019, Cracked Sidewalks did a deep dive into what high kenpom "Luck" rankings meant for teams in March. It didn't portend well for that Marquette team, and though the bottom fell out before March, it was January when CS tried to warn MU fans that a first weekend exit was likely no matter how highly seeded the team would end up being.
Today, we went on an even deeper dive to see if the data since then reinforces that lucky teams lose early in the NCAA Tournament. We also look at which teams that might apply to this year. We also have a new S-Curve:
https://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2022/01/revisiting-luck.html
Good work. Do MU's 3 OOC losses count as blowouts? Obviously, the conference losses were tight. And MU has several close wins. So, is this the prologue to a deeper dive about tournament expectations or just revisiting an old column?
Quote from: brewcity77 on January 28, 2022, 06:52:48 AM
In 2019, Cracked Sidewalks did a deep dive into what high kenpom "Luck" rankings meant for teams in March. It didn't portend well for that Marquette team, and though the bottom fell out before March, it was January when CS tried to warn MU fans that a first weekend exit was likely no matter how highly seeded the team would end up being.
Today, we went on an even deeper dive to see if the data since then reinforces that lucky teams lose early in the NCAA Tournament. We also look at which teams that might apply to this year. We also have a new S-Curve:
https://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2022/01/revisiting-luck.html
Great work, guys.
Quote from: tower912 on January 28, 2022, 07:03:34 AM
Good work. Do MU's 3 OOC losses count as blowouts? Obviously, the conference losses were tight. And MU has several close wins. So, is this the prologue to a deeper dive about tournament expectations or just revisiting an old column?
Mostly revisiting, partially because I was curious about the data since I wrote that and partially because I knew Providence was the poster child for this type of team.
Marquette isn't terribly far from qualifying for this. They are 76th in luck and 9 spots overseeded based on line alone. Definitely worth glancing at once Selection Sunday arrives.
Quote from: brewcity77 on January 28, 2022, 08:04:01 AM
Mostly revisiting, partially because I was curious about the data since I wrote that and partially because I knew Providence was the poster child for this type of team.
Marquette isn't terribly far from qualifying for this. They are 76th in luck and 9 spots overseeded based on line alone. Definitely worth glancing at once Selection Sunday arrives.
Brew,
Will our Kenpom luck factor progressively get lower (less lucky) based on continued but similar results of games played after Jan 1st?
The eye test says that none of these games are lucky wins. The team has simply come together and continues to get better.
I agree on the luck aspect early on, with the Illinois game being a shining example, but even then we don't get that victory without having some horses who could run with the big boys (hindsight of course). Now, luck doesn't seem to be factoring in as much. We are simply good and we may not really be overseaded at a 6.
Oh and thanks for the content!
Quote from: Shooter McGavin on January 28, 2022, 09:53:54 AM
Brew,
Will our Kenpom luck factor progressively get lower (less lucky) based on continued but similar results of games played after Jan 1st?
The eye test says that none of these games are lucky wins. The team has simply come together and continues to get better.
I agree on the luck aspect early on, with the Illinois game being a shining example, but even then we don't get that victory without having some horses who could run with the big boys (hindsight of course). Now, luck doesn't seem to be factoring in as much. We are simply good and we may not really be overseaded at a 6.
Marquette is 4-1 in games decided by 1 possession or OT. If you reverse MU's luck, 1-4 in those games has MU squarely on the bubble.
A handful of possessions can make the difference between a single digit seed and the NIT.
That doesn't mean the team isn't getting better. They could very well continue their ascent.
Quote from: Juan Anderson's Mixtape on January 28, 2022, 10:26:46 AM
Marquette is 4-1 in games decided by 1 possession or OT. If you reverse MU's luck, 1-4 in those games has MU squarely on the bubble.
A handful of possessions can make the difference between a single digit seed and the NIT.
That doesn't mean the team isn't getting better. They could very well continue their ascent.
I think that's an important note. The luck could change. They've finished better the last month than in December. These things sometimes even out.
The process is the key and the team we've seen the last 30 days is the type of team I wanted to see, win or lose. It's clear they're getting better. Shaka and the staff doing that with these guys is awesome.
End of the day...just trust Ken Pom's rankings to be predictive of NCAA tournament performance. Looking at all the teams analyzed, Iowa State was Ken Pom Number 24 and made it to the Sweet 16. Were they "overseeded" per Ken Pom rank of 24, as a 3 seed? Yes. However, they closed out that season winning the Big 12 championship which likely propelled their seed a bit higher.
Ken Pom factors Luck into his aggregate ratings. At this stage of the season MU is 33, which would put them as an 8/9 seed if you went off KenPom rankings. The teams in the linked article here that were rated higher than 40 all won at least 1 game in the NCAA.
Marquette has been a little lucky as of late. They lost the last four games on ShotQuality, the only one that was surprising was the last seton hall game but i think they took their foot off of the pedal. The in game luck is a little real.
Morsell can't keep shooting guarded threes as efficiently has he has been. Lewis in post ups is a bad possession unless he passes out of it. That play needs to be a decoy more often than not. Kolek shot a few too many off dribble last game but at least he made one.
Next game is a good matchup though for Marquette.
Crap. So we actually suck?
Quote from: Shooter McGavin on January 28, 2022, 09:53:54 AM
Brew,
Will our Kenpom luck factor progressively get lower (less lucky) based on continued but similar results of games played after Jan 1st?
Winning by convincing margins, such as PC, Georgetown, Xavier, and Seton Hall, will drive that down. What really stands out to though is sorting T-Rank by date. For the season, Torvik has us 50th & Providence 40th overall. So not great for either. But when you sort since the start of the New Year, when we are 7-1 and Providence is 5-1, T-Rank has us 7th and Providence 57th.
To me, that is a strong indicator that what we're seeing here is real while Providence is the same fraud they've always been.
Quote from: Jay Bee on January 28, 2022, 11:38:56 AM
Crap. So we actually suck?
No, but Bucky does ;D
Quote from: brewcity77 on January 28, 2022, 11:56:57 AM
Winning by convincing margins, such as PC, Georgetown, Xavier, and Seton Hall, will drive that down. What really stands out to though is sorting T-Rank by date. For the season, Torvik has us 50th & Providence 40th overall. So not great for either. But when you sort since the start of the New Year, when we are 7-1 and Providence is 5-1, T-Rank has us 7th and Providence 57th.
To me, that is a strong indicator that what we're seeing here is real while Providence is the same fraud they've always been.
No, but Bucky does ;D
https://twitter.com/robdauster/status/1487119004015677452?s=21
Quote from: brewcity77 on January 28, 2022, 11:56:57 AM
Winning by convincing margins, such as PC, Georgetown, Xavier, and Seton Hall, will drive that down. What really stands out to though is sorting T-Rank by date. For the season, Torvik has us 50th & Providence 40th overall. So not great for either. But when you sort since the start of the New Year, when we are 7-1 and Providence is 5-1, T-Rank has us 7th and Providence 57th.
To me, that is a strong indicator that what we're seeing here is real while Providence is the same fraud they've always been.
No, but Bucky does ;D
IMO PC sans Reeves is fraudulent. They can continue on their current trajectory IF reeves comes back healthy (big if).
A healthy reeves takes Breed off the floor and vastly improves spacing in the half court.
Luck will come into play quite a bit this season. Some teams will be lucky to not have to make up games against very good opponents (The Provi). Some teams will be "unlucky" in that they don't get any tough games canceled. Some teams will have to play shorthanded more than others, too, due to Covid protocols.
When we make the last shot to win that is skill.
When the other team misses the last shot to beat us that is luck.
Doesn't it take some degree of luck to win the Championship?
Quote from: muwarrior69 on January 28, 2022, 06:04:51 PM
Doesn't it take some degree of luck to win the Championship?
Absolutely!
Quote from: muwarrior69 on January 28, 2022, 06:04:51 PM
Doesn't it take some degree of luck to win the Championship?
What this is identifying is teams that are more lucky than good. If you look at recent champs, most are fortunate, but only a couple are in the top-50 range, including that UConn team that was maybe the most improbable champ in recent memory. But these weren't teams that were overseeded on the basis of that luck. Here's the list:
2014 UConn: 23
2015 Duke: 38
2016 Villanova: 114
2017 North Carolina: 85
2018 Villanova: 225
2019 Virginia: 62
2021 Baylor: 80
What I'm looking for are teams that are lucky and mostly owe their success to being statistical outliers.
Providence should be able to keep their stranglehold on the #1 luckiest team after this game.
Quote from: PointWarrior on January 30, 2022, 02:02:31 PM
Providence should be able to keep their stranglehold on the #1 luckiest team after this game.
As of today, they are literally the luckiest team in the history of kenpom (not being bitter, it's a statistical fact).
Quote from: brewcity77 on January 30, 2022, 09:10:51 PM
As of today, they are literally the luckiest team in the history of kenpom (not being bitter, it's a statistical fact).
Was today's win for them considered "lucky"? If so, why?
Quote from: MU82 on January 30, 2022, 10:15:52 PM
Was today's win for them considered "lucky"? If so, why?
Think it is because yet again they won a game by a small margin. Winning games by small margins and getting blown out on losses is the epitome of luck.
Quote from: MU82 on January 30, 2022, 10:15:52 PM
Was today's win for them considered "lucky"? If so, why?
Absolutely. Here's the kenpom definition:
Luck – A measure of the deviation between a team's actual winning percentage and what one would expect from its game-by-game efficiencies. It's a Dean Oliver invention. Essentially, a team involved in a lot of close games should not win (or lose) all of them. Those that do will be viewed as lucky (or unlucky).
Providence is probably around the 30th-40th best team in the country. Torvik has them at 37, Pomeroy at 46, Haslametrics at 60. Are they as bad as losing to Virginia by 18 or Marquette by 32? Probably not. But they also aren't close to as good as their 18-2 record.
Consider this. In 11 games against top-100 opponents on Pomeroy, Providence has a -2 combined scoring margin. You would expect that team to be 5-6. If they're lucky, 6-5, or really lucky, 7-4. Providence is 9-2 in those games. That's absurd luck and history shows those teams tend to pay the luck piper the first weekend in March.
Quote from: brewcity77 on January 31, 2022, 05:30:11 AM
Absolutely. Here's the kenpom definition:
Luck – A measure of the deviation between a team's actual winning percentage and what one would expect from its game-by-game efficiencies. It's a Dean Oliver invention. Essentially, a team involved in a lot of close games should not win (or lose) all of them. Those that do will be viewed as lucky (or unlucky).
Providence is probably around the 30th-40th best team in the country. Torvik has them at 37, Pomeroy at 46, Haslametrics at 60. Are they as bad as losing to Virginia by 18 or Marquette by 32? Probably not. But they also aren't close to as good as their 18-2 record.
Consider this. In 11 games against top-100 opponents on Pomeroy, Providence has a -2 combined scoring margin. You would expect that team to be 5-6. If they're lucky, 6-5, or really lucky, 7-4. Providence is 9-2 in those games. That's absurd luck and history shows those teams tend to pay the luck piper the first weekend in March.
Thanks for your detailed explanation, brewski. We're lucky to have you.
Quote from: brewcity77 on January 31, 2022, 05:30:11 AM
Absolutely. Here's the kenpom definition:
Luck – A measure of the deviation between a team's actual winning percentage and what one would expect from its game-by-game efficiencies. It's a Dean Oliver invention. Essentially, a team involved in a lot of close games should not win (or lose) all of them. Those that do will be viewed as lucky (or unlucky).
Providence is probably around the 30th-40th best team in the country. Torvik has them at 37, Pomeroy at 46, Haslametrics at 60. Are they as bad as losing to Virginia by 18 or Marquette by 32? Probably not. But they also aren't close to as good as their 18-2 record.
Consider this. In 11 games against top-100 opponents on Pomeroy, Providence has a -2 combined scoring margin. You would expect that team to be 5-6. If they're lucky, 6-5, or really lucky, 7-4. Providence is 9-2 in those games. That's absurd luck and history shows those teams tend to pay the luck piper the first weekend in March.
Reminds me of the 1960 World Series between Pittsburgh and New York. Yankees outscored the Pirates something like 55-27 but lost the Series.
Quote from: brewcity77 on January 31, 2022, 05:30:11 AM
Absolutely. Here's the kenpom definition:
Luck – A measure of the deviation between a team's actual winning percentage and what one would expect from its game-by-game efficiencies. It's a Dean Oliver invention. Essentially, a team involved in a lot of close games should not win (or lose) all of them. Those that do will be viewed as lucky (or unlucky).
Providence is probably around the 30th-40th best team in the country. Torvik has them at 37, Pomeroy at 46, Haslametrics at 60. Are they as bad as losing to Virginia by 18 or Marquette by 32? Probably not. But they also aren't close to as good as their 18-2 record.
Consider this. In 11 games against top-100 opponents on Pomeroy, Providence has a -2 combined scoring margin. You would expect that team to be 5-6. If they're lucky, 6-5, or really lucky, 7-4. Providence is 9-2 in those games. That's absurd luck and history shows those teams tend to pay the luck piper the first weekend in March.
Madison is almost equally as lucky as Providence.
Quote from: IrwinFletcher on January 31, 2022, 08:19:32 AM
Madison is almost equally as lucky as Providence.
They're up there, which is why they were one of the topics of the article, though Providence is currently the luckiest team in kenpom history and ranked #1 while Madison is 7th. In two possession games, which essentially should be a coin flip (one three bounces out at one end and in on the other and the result flips) Providence is 7-0 while Madison is 9-1, with the only loss coming to Providence. And that's why those teams are going to be overseeded come March.
Quote from: brewcity77 on January 31, 2022, 05:30:11 AM
Absolutely. Here's the kenpom definition:
Luck – A measure of the deviation between a team's actual winning percentage and what one would expect from its game-by-game efficiencies. It's a Dean Oliver invention. Essentially, a team involved in a lot of close games should not win (or lose) all of them. Those that do will be viewed as lucky (or unlucky).
Providence is probably around the 30th-40th best team in the country. Torvik has them at 37, Pomeroy at 46, Haslametrics at 60. Are they as bad as losing to Virginia by 18 or Marquette by 32? Probably not. But they also aren't close to as good as their 18-2 record.
Consider this. In 11 games against top-100 opponents on Pomeroy, Providence has a -2 combined scoring margin. You would expect that team to be 5-6. If they're lucky, 6-5, or really lucky, 7-4. Providence is 9-2 in those games. That's absurd luck and history shows those teams tend to pay the luck piper the first weekend in March.
The luck factor is also an indication that his models aren't very good for predicting Providence, remembering he pools all the 358 schools when modeling with a bunch of indexing. So "luck" is the residual random error, that he then throws into his prediction models.
As to making it out of the first weekend, only 23.5% of the 68 teams in reality make it out of the first weekend? How do the unlucky teams compare to the lucky teams as a control?
Quote from: lawdog77 on January 31, 2022, 07:29:54 AM
Reminds me of the 1960 World Series between Pittsburgh and New York. Yankees outscored the Pirates something like 55-27 but lost the Series.
With pitchers that is more common in baseball. Team has 4 starters in series and three are aces and one sucks. Then the relief sucks too. This kind of thing can happen.
QuoteWhat does that tell you? Obviously check back after the official NCAA Bracket comes out, but if you see Wisconsin, Providence, or West Virginia in your bracket, don't expect to see them in the second weekend.
To me, this sounded like sour grapes when posted. Now confirmed. And we have yet to see what WI does tomorrow.
Quote from: rocky_warrior on March 19, 2022, 11:33:17 PM
To me, this sounded like sour grapes when posted. Now confirmed. And we have yet to see what WI does tomorrow.
Or it was pretty much correct, as West Virginia's luck ran out before the tourney, Wisconsin bowed out in the first weekend, and Providence has succeeded in playing to seed but still needs another win to truly be an outlier on par with 2013 Marquette (mentioned in the original linked 2019 article).
Quote from: brewcity77 on March 20, 2022, 07:43:17 PM
Or it was pretty much correct, as West Virginia's luck ran out before the tourney, Wisconsin bowed out in the first weekend, and Providence has succeeded in playing to seed but still needs another win to truly be an outlier on par with 2013 Marquette (mentioned in the original linked 2019 article).
Pretty unlucky Wisconsin lost their starting Pg in the first half