For as up and down as MU has been (hopefully on the up trend right now), MU's chances at a top 4 seed and a first round bye are actually quite good.
Here's a breakdown of the remaining sked's of everyone in front of MU right now. Even though there are three other teams with five losses, MU has a game and win in hand, so I'll leave them out of the discussion for now. Based on the numbers, MU has the second easiest sked left (only UConn's is easier). Both MU and UConn have zero road games left against potential top four seeds. ND, 'Ville, and especially Pitt, have brutal sked's down the stretch.
MU's two games back in the L column from being in the running for a bye, and luckily most of the teams ahead of them will be beating each other up. A 5-1 finish could actually get it done.
MU: Pitt, @ SJU, Rutgers, @ Nova, GT, @ Syr (Average # of BE wins left of opp's, 5.5)
ND: @UConn, @ Rutgers, Pitt, Syr, @'Ville, @DPU, SJU, @SF (6.3)
UConn: ND, @SF, DePaul, @Nova, @Rutgers, WVU, @Prov, Cincy (4.3)
Pitt: @MU, @ND, 'Ville, Cincy, @Syr, @WVU, DePaul (6.5)
'Ville: @Prov, Syr, @Pitt, ND, Nova, @GT (6.5)
GT: @Syr, @Prov, Cincy, SJU, @MU, 'Ville (6.0)
The problem is that we loose the tie breaker against Lou/UConn (the three loss teams) based on head to head losses.
I wouldn't worry too much about tiebreakers against UConn or 'Ville.
The two teams to watch are ND and Pitt. If MU is going to move up, these are the two teams MU will bump.
I think we will take care of Pitt. I didn't look close enough at NDs schedule. I guess it comes down to ND then.
ND has by far the easiest schedule. I calculate 41 wins among their 8 games, an average of 5.1. They have gimmes in Rutgers and the final 3 in DP, SJ and SF
I stand corrected on ND's 6.3, it is 5.1, but to argue they have the easiest sked left is probably inaccurate. MU and UConn have far easier sked's left.
ND goes on the road for 5 of their last 8. I wouldn't say @ DePaul is a gimme for ND, history included.
I don't care as much if we finish 4th or 5th as I do about matchups. I would prefer facing ND in the second round over Louisville or UConn. We match up a lot better against ND and I do believe we beat them in a neutral setting.
Quote from: mufanatic on February 13, 2008, 10:53:23 AM
I don't care as much if we finish 4th or 5th as I do about matchups. I would prefer facing ND in the second round over Louisville or UConn. We match up a lot better against ND and I do believe we beat them in a neutral setting.
thank you, a 5 seed would be good if ND gets the 4 seed, I like our matchup against them and definitely think we could take them in the garden
There is a huge difference between a 4 or 5 seed ... The first-round bye.
I would rather have the bye and face a team in the 2nd round that MU doesn't match-up with well than have to play in the opening round 5 vs. 12 game.
Tie Breakers are not head to head in the big east....
how would tie breakers work with ND??
Head to head actually does come first in a two-team tie. Since MU and ND split, it would move to record against the top teams in the conference - in order. Therefore, if we beat G'town (assuming they finish first) we'd win a breaker against ND.
In a multi-team tie, best winning % among the tied teams is the first tie-breaker.
Even with the loss tonight, we are still a full 2 games behind ND so I'm not sure how likely this even is.
Quote from: NavinRJohnson on February 13, 2008, 07:50:28 PM
Head to head actually does come first in a two-team tie. Since MU and ND split, it would move to record against the top teams in the conference - in order. Therefore, if we beat G'town (assuming they finish first) we'd win a breaker against ND.
In a multi-team tie, best winning % among the tied teams is the first tie-breaker.
Even with the loss tonight, we are still a full 2 games behind ND so I'm not sure how likely this even is.
It's not very likely. In all probability MU will need to win out, and then ND would still need to lose two more games. Besides @UL, raise your hand if you see another probable loss for ND. I sure don't. >:(
I'll take the 5 seed and a first round matchup vs. Providence, St. John's, Villanova, DePaul, or Seton Hall. Should be another victory and every one helps with the NCAA selection.
Just look how the selection committee rewarded us last year after beating St. John's in the first round.
I thought it was worth bumping this thread since it now seems possible. If we win out, I think we could wind up tied with ND and could win the tie breaker (a victory over GT).
Quote from: WashDCWarrior on February 14, 2008, 12:36:09 PM
I'll take the 5 seed and a first round matchup vs. Providence, St. John's, Villanova, DePaul, or Seton Hall. Should be another victory and every one helps with the NCAA selection.
Just look how the selection committee rewarded us last year after beating St. John's in the first round.
I think MU's seed was hurt at least a spot, maybe two, by the McNeal injury last year.
One benefit of being the 4th-best BE team in the committee's eyes (not necessarily the 4th-place team or fourth team to get a bye into the tourney) is that you're not susceptible to a seed switch, which I believe happened with MU last year. Once MU was behind Gtown, Pitt, U of L and UND a year ago, only nine teams from the Big East would have likely allowed MU to be a #6 or a #7 seed, because even though league teams can play one another before the Final 8, in the Sweet 16, I think that rule will only be applied when and if the BE (or some other league I suppose) gets nine into the tourney. So MU probably earned a #6 last year, but I think the combination of the McNeal injury and the seed switch dropped them to a #8.
That's the biggest advantage in my mind of being the fourth-place team and/or fourth team to get a bye; is that you're not as susceptible to a possible seed switch. And I could see a scenario right now where U of L, Gtown, UConn and UND all are 2-3 seeds. But I also think MU is closer to a 4-5 seed than an 8 seed vs. a year ago if that scenario came up again this year.
@UCONN,@DP,and at Lville don't look like easy games for ND.
I sure hope Syracuse doesn't school us with their zone like last year.
I know how good Georgetown is, but I think at Syracuse is the toughestr match-up left for us on our schedule.
Watching the Syracuse and Georgetown game today, we will have to play good basketball against both of them. But that is what makes them great games.
At Syracuse will be a very difficult game and I don't see us winning that game because I believe Syracuse is
- a very talented team
- playing at home at an arena that is huge and one we never played in
- Syracuse seniors last home game
- fighting for a berth in the NCAA tournny
Barring some big time upsets over the next 2 weeks, we will get a 5 seed but hopefully we would get ND in the 2nd round. Two wins in the tourny and a good showing against the 1 seed would solidify a really good seed if we do in fact finish the season strong.
Rutgers is trying to help us out... Leading by 2 with 12 to go
just wanted to revisit this topic. I actually like our odds at a bye, even if we lose another game. we basically need louisville to win outwhich would mean losses for notre dame and georgetown. at that point we could control our own destiny with our game against g-town. i think notre dame loses three more games anyway, so even if we lose one more, we could get the 4 seed. heck, we could end up with the 3 seed in the BE tourney if things fall right. i just don't see uconn losing any of their last five...