What record do you predict for the Big East schedule?
I'll start and say 6-14
I think we struggle early but come on strong to finish the season... 10-10.
The best I can hope for is 8-12. MU will not do well against fundamentally sound teams.
7-13
8-12
12-8
9-11
11-9, which has us squarely on the bubble.
8 or 9 wins.
10-10
Feels like 8-12.
I'll go with 9-11
8 or 9 wins.
9-11
11-9.
Butler 2x
Grown 2x
St John's 2x
DePaul 2x
Xavier 1x
Creighton 1x
Coin flip on last one. Probably SH? Prov?
Don't see us beating Uconn with Sanogo. Maybe split one with SH.
Nova will be a handful for this squad.
Quote from: JakeBarnes on December 12, 2021, 11:47:47 AM
11-9.
Butler 2x
Grown 2x
St John's 2x
DePaul 2x
Butler 1x
Xavier 1x
Creighton 1x
Don't see us beating Uconn with Sanogo. Maybe split one with SH.
Nova will be a handful for this squad.
You have Butler in there twice. I put the chances at going 8-0 against Georgetown, Butler, St. John's, and DePaul at 0.0%
Quote from: BLM on December 12, 2021, 11:50:33 AM
You have Butler in there twice. I put the chances at going 8-0 against Georgetown, Butler, St. John's, and DePaul at 0.0%
Fixed. And we'll see.
Quote from: BLM on December 12, 2021, 11:50:33 AM
I put the chances at going 8-0 against Georgetown, Butler, St. John's, and DePaul at 0.0%
I'd put it at higher than 0.0%, but I know you were going for hyperbole and I agree with your thesis.
I'm still thinking about all this, but I definitely won't have us going 8-0 there.
Quote from: MU82 on December 12, 2021, 12:00:41 PM
I'd put it at higher than 0.0%, but I know you were going for hyperbole and I agree with your thesis.
I'm still thinking about all this, but I definitely won't have us going 8-0 there.
Even Al never went 8-0 in a season against those 4
Quote from: MU82 on December 12, 2021, 12:00:41 PM
I'd put it at higher than 0.0%, but I know you were going for hyperbole and I agree with your thesis.
I'm still thinking about all this, but I definitely won't have us going 8-0 there.
I honestly wasn't saying it as hyperbole. When is the last time an MU team won their 8 easiest conference games? I don't think this team has anywhere near the talent to where going into a game against any conference opponent you think it's a W for sure. To do that twice against 4 different teams just seems impossibly unlikely to me.
Quote from: BLM on December 12, 2021, 12:08:13 PM
I honestly wasn't saying it as hyperbole. When is the last time an MU team won their 8 easiest conference games? I don't think this team has anywhere near the talent to where going into a game against any conference opponent you think it's a W for sure. To do that twice against 4 different teams just seems impossibly unlikely to me.
Against those 4 teams I would very pleased if we go 6-2. I fear we will go 5-3 or worse.
Quote from: BLM on December 12, 2021, 12:08:13 PM
I honestly wasn't saying it as hyperbole. When is the last time an MU team won their 8 easiest conference games? I don't think this team has anywhere near the talent to where going into a game against any conference opponent you think it's a W for sure. To do that twice against 4 different teams just seems impossibly unlikely to me.
Though I think professional statisticians would say the chance is better than 0.0%, again, we agree. Even Buzz and Crean and KO and Al teams that were a lot less flawed than this one lost many games they were "supposed to win."
I was riding the 10-10 train hard 2 weeks ago.
Pencil me in for 7-13.
8-12 unless the 3 point shooting gets better and the defensive rebounding gets better.
82
You count on one hand the games lost that he should have won. That was his trademark and something he held as a benchmark. Now, if you want to say he played down to competition, that happened many times a season. Many games were won with 3-5 minutes of high quality ball. Aside from his final season, there are not many games you can rattle off that he lost against lower competition.
20-0
11-9. Which is where I was when season started
I was at 8-3 Non Conference and they delivered that
I think the team is tracking well
Quote from: Goose on December 12, 2021, 01:48:46 PM
82
You count on one hand the games lost that he should have won. That was his trademark and something he held as a benchmark. Now, if you want to say he played down to competition, that happened many times a season. Many games were won with 3-5 minutes of high quality ball. Aside from his final season, there are not many games you can rattle off that he lost against lower competition.
You know a lot more about the Al era than I do, Goose, so I defer to your knowledge.
Shaka's not Al. And Luke, Butch, Bo and Dean ain't walkin' through that door to help this particular group go 8-0 against those 4 teams. But point taken.
12-8
Quote from: MU82 on December 12, 2021, 12:20:31 PM
Though I think professional statisticians would say the chance is better than 0.0%, again, we agree. Even Buzz and Crean and KO and Al teams that were a lot less flawed than this one lost many games they were "supposed to win."
Doesn't take a professional statistician to figure probabilities and of course the probability of us sweeping those 8 games isn't 0.0%. If estimating that we have a 70% chance of winning those 4 home games and a 40% chance of winning those road games is fair but our chance for an 8 game sweep is .7x.7x.7x.7x.4x.4x.4x.4 which equals less than a 1% (.614656%).
So BLM isn't wrong that it's an extremely long shot (about 175-1) - so not impossible but virtually so.
82
Like Rico said, Al is dead. Great memories and games to talk about with people who care. All I care about is the Shaka era. I do enjoy reminiscing about the Buzz era and most here have been fans that long. It would be pretty cool if Dean walked through the door. Bo looks long in the tooth to me.
Nattering nabobs of negativism.
All of you. Except Goose!
We will be fine. Let's see how our guys respond to last night and how they grow from it.
Quote from: dgies9156 on December 12, 2021, 02:47:55 PM
Nattering nabobs of negativism.
All of you. Except Goose!
We will be fine. Let's see how our guys respond to last night and how they grow from it.
OK Spiro. My guess is that many here do not get your reference.
We'll be OK. Fine? Depends upon your definition in terms of W/L. So what's yours Dgies?
9-11
10-10 and we are in the first four play in games.
10-10
We'll win between 6-8. No chance of 10+. Assuming we lose to Nova at home (there will be more home losses) who is this team beating on the road?
Quote from: ATL MU Warrior on December 12, 2021, 04:12:47 PM
We'll win between 6-8. No chance of 10+. Assuming we lose to Nova at home (there will be more home losses) who is this team beating on the road?
The answer for which team they will beat on the road is any team besides UConn and Villanova. Will that other team have to have a crappy game? Yes. But no one in this league is unbeatable at home or away. Whether it happens or not, who knows?
Quote from: Lennys Tap on December 12, 2021, 02:21:54 PM
Doesn't take a professional statistician to figure probabilities and of course the probability of us sweeping those 8 games isn't 0.0%. If estimating that we have a 70% chance of winning those 4 home games and a 40% chance of winning those road games is fair but our chance for an 8 game sweep is .7x.7x.7x.7x.4x.4x.4x.4 which equals less than a 1% (.614656%).
Your estimates are only a little generous. St. Johns and DePaul aren't the pushovers that Scoop fans would like to believe. Currently Torvik's computer gives us a 0.1972632711168% chance of going 8-0 against them and Butler/GTown. So there's a chance!
Quote from: rocky_warrior on December 12, 2021, 04:34:50 PM
Your estimates are only a little generous. St. Johns and DePaul aren't the pushovers that Scoop fans would like to believe. Currently Torvik's computer gives us a 0.1972632711168% chance of going 8-0 against them and Butler/GTown. So there's a chance!
#DoneDeal
Oh, and put me down for 9-11, which would be slightly overachieving in my book.
Quote from: Herman Cain on December 12, 2021, 01:55:36 PM
11-9. Which is where I was when season started
I was at 8-3 Non Conference and they delivered that
I think the team is tracking well
8-3 non-conference is better than what I expected. However, they were very close to being 6-5. The players do seem to have a knack for winning the close games, but sometimes that evens out over the entire season.
1-9 on the road, 5-5 at home
11-9.
Butler x2
Georgetown x2
Providence
Creighton
UConn
DePaul
SJU
SHU
X
7-13
9-11. With two unanticipated losses and two awesome wins.
I think the range is 8-12 to 11-9. I don't see the team choking or exploding any more than that.
Quote from: Scoop Snoop on December 12, 2021, 02:58:19 PM
OK Spiro. My guess is that many here do not get your reference.
We'll be OK. Fine? Depends upon your definition in terms of W/L. So what's yours Dgies?
Crazy boomer here!
We are going to win some we should not win and maybe lose some we should not lose.
Optimistically 12-8.
I'm not a big Shaka guy, but I do think he can get this team to 10-10 in the BE. If MU takes a win in the conf tournament, 19 overall wins might earn a dance invite.
Quote from: BM1090 on December 12, 2021, 05:14:43 PM
11-9.
Butler x2
Georgetown x2
Providence
Creighton
UConn
DePaul
SJU
SHU
X
This seems about right.
Quote from: mug644 on December 12, 2021, 08:31:20 PM
9-11. With two unanticipated losses and two awesome wins.
I think the range is 8-12 to 11-9. I don't see the team choking or exploding any more than that.
Believable range, and logical explanation.
Quote from: dgies9156 on December 12, 2021, 08:36:30 PM
Crazy boomer here!
We are going to win some we should not win and maybe lose some we should not lose.
Optimistically 12-8.
As much as I would like to join your party, I just cannot do it. I'm at 9-11 but after today's game I wonder if I should reconsider the two losses vs. Nova that are part of my guess. Woof! If your forecast turns out to be accurate at the end of conference season and you are looking for someone to say "See?
See? I
told you so!" to, I'm volunteering. I would love to be wrong.
Had 11-9 before the season. I also had way worse non con results.
Honeslty there is a chance of 7 BE teams getting in, if the last few Non con games go positively.
Wins:
Nova: 0
UCONN: 0
X: 1
Hall: 1
SJU: 0
Butler: 1
Prov: 2
Creighton: 2
GT: 2
DePaul: 1
Total: 10
Quote from: Scoop Snoop on December 12, 2021, 02:58:19 PM
OK Spiro. My guess is that many here do not get your reference.
We'll be OK. Fine? Depends upon your definition in terms of W/L. So what's yours Dgies?
Many here do not even know who Spiro was. Now there is a fine character comparison: Spiro vs. Heels Up Harris
Quote from: willie warrior on December 13, 2021, 04:00:09 AM
Many here do not even know who Spiro was. Now there is a fine character comparison: Spiro vs. Heels Up Harris
Afraid not. Spiro was a convicted crook. He accepted bribes in return for awarding federal and state contracts up and down the East Coast.
Ms. harris, no matter what you think of her, is an upstanding citizen who never has been convicted of anything.
<<patting myself on the back>>. I called 8-3 in the nonconference, although I had quite a few of the w's and L's mixed up. So, I'll call 13-7-and we sweep Villanova, while losing to Gtown.
8-12.
8-3 is great, but also a few close wins with 3 big losses. Will regress to the mean in the close games in the Big East.
8-3 is a nice achievement. Now there is film and MU is not going to catch anybody by surprise 8-12.
Quote from: Goose on December 12, 2021, 01:48:46 PM
82
You count on one hand the games lost that he should have won. there are not many games you can rattle off that he lost against lower competition.
Dicky V rattles off the one occasion when he got lucky every time he's near a microphone and there's even a tangential mention of MU, how he bested his "good friend" Al.
Going with 8.
Dickie V definitely has one of the games that MU should have won.
7-13 is my guess.
L @X
L vs. UCONN
L @SJU
W vs. Creighton
W vs. PC
L @ Gtown
W vs. Depaul
L vs. SHU
L @ Nova
L vs. X
L @ SHY
L @ PC
L vs. Nova
L @ UCONN
W @ Butler
W vs. Gtown
L @ Creighton
W vs. Butler
L @ Depaul
W vs. SJU
The last 6 games are relatively easy. If we can find a way to go 6-8 if the first 14, we have a good shot of making the tourney. But 6-8 in the first 14 is a pretty big ask based on how this team has looked against good teams.
For everyone who assumes UConn is an automatic L, you should watch some of their games. I've watched probably almost as much UConn as I have MU, and noticed that they don't handle the press or aggressive D very well right now. If that holds, we really do have a shot to do damage there, even with Sanogo.
Not guaranteeing any wins, but I actually think our shot vs UConn is better than some of the other BE teams.
Quote from: UWW2MU on December 13, 2021, 09:55:43 AM
For everyone who assumes UConn is an automatic L, you should watch some of their games. I've watched probably almost as much UConn as I have MU, and noticed that they don't handle the press or aggressive D very well right now. If that holds, we really do have a shot to do damage there, even with Sanogo.
Not guaranteeing any wins, but I actually think our shot vs UConn is better than some of the other BE teams.
Without Sanogo (and maybe without Martin), I agree that we have a fair chance at winning at home. I saw some of the same weaknesses sometimes that have seen. Not as confident as you seem to be with Sanogo back on their team.
Quote from: Uncle Rico on December 12, 2021, 09:35:48 AM
What record do you predict for the Big East schedule?
I'll start and say 6-14
(16-15, 8-12)
If they can find a way to flip 2 of those and finish (18-13, 10-10) I think they get in.
I'm guessing 8-12.
My optimistic prediction 9-11