MUScoop

December will be a very tough month for us.
- @ 23 Wisconsin
- @ Kansas State
- 5 UCLA
- @ Xavier
- 17 UConn
- @ St. John's

How many games do we need to call it a success?

I will be pretty happy with 2-4...especially if one of those 2 is Wisconsin.

Think 3 is realistic. We're entering a stretch where we won't see a team rated lower than us until GTown. Of course, if the three we won were all BE games, I'd get a better feeling. It's a tough stretch and we'll learn more about our personnel and team in general. And Mr. Smart.

3 wins in December would be a great start to the year, imo. 10-4 puts them in the drivers seat for a bid.

Quote from: goldeneagle91114 on November 30, 2021, 10:39:54 PM
December will be a very tough month for us.
- @ 23 Wisconsin
- @ Kansas State
- 5 UCLA
- Xavier
- 17 UConn
- @ St. John's

How many games do we need to call it a success?

Correction: we're at Xavier.

3

If we go 1-2 in non + 9-11 in Conf we be making lives pretty tough in the Indianapolis board rooms.

Quote from: The Lens on November 30, 2021, 11:20:13 PM
If we go 1-2 in non + 9-11 in Conf we be making lives pretty tough in the Indianapolis board rooms.

Don't think that would be enough. 11 more wins to be in solid shape. 12 and they should be a lock.

Quote from: goldeneagle91114 on November 30, 2021, 10:39:54 PM
December will be a very tough month for us.
- @ 23 Wisconsin
- @ Kansas State
- 5 UCLA
- Xavier
- 17 UConn
- @ St. John's

How many games do we need to call it a success?

I'll go with 3 wins calls it a success, anything more than that and this squad is likely dancing

I'd be ok with 2-4, call that neutral.

1-5 is uh oh but season still alive.

0-6 is likely onions on the season, but still not completely certain it's all over when it comes to postseason chances. Could still turn it around to a .500 BE campaign but it would take a lot of work

KenPom has us as dogs in all 6 and doesn't give us better than a 39% chance in any of them.

We've already done enough in the non-conference that even if we go 0 for 3 on the last non-con games, we can still play our way into the tournament with a good (12+ wins) Big East showing. Winning 1 of 3 gives a chance with a solid Big East showing and 2 or 3 of 3 gives us a lot wiggle room heading into conference play.

2 wins

It's a tough schedule, but it's also a great way to avoid any bad losses. Pretty much guaranteed to have no Q4 losses and maybe only 3 or so "opportunities" for a Q3 loss.

In contrast there will be roughly a dozen Q1 win opportunities with 5 or 6 of those Q1A.

The bubble is soft every year - it seems with that schedule 18 wins will be a mortal lock even if 6 of those are sweeps of Butler, GT and DePaul.

Quote from: The Thing on November 30, 2021, 10:47:19 PM
I will be pretty happy with 2-4...especially if one of those 2 is Wisconsin.

Normally I would agree with you but the next most likely win is Kansas State which would mean we would have an 0-4 stretch and we would start the conference season 0-3. That is a big hole to dig out of as I think the Big East is better this year so getting back to .500 in conference will be hard. I think we need to go 3-3 to keep our hopes alive. The third win would be more likely to be Xavier or St John's. 

Quote from: TAMU Eagle on November 30, 2021, 11:41:41 PM
KenPom has us as dogs in all 6 and doesn't give us better than a 39% chance in any of them.

I know it's just projections and KenPom has its issues, but that's surprising given how meh KSU's season has been so far.

Appreciating how much harder it is to win on the road, that is one tough stretch of games. If we can get 2 wins, that would be fine. Doesn't matter what we need, of course, just what is realistic. And 2 wins, on paper,  may not really be realistic.

Now, as a fan I'm always hopeful that we put a few great games together, hit 40+ on 3's and actually rebound and box out and walk away with 3 wins or more. As a fan I am also always hopeful that the glimpses and a few games we've had of great play become the norm. But then I remember that this team is young and these are basically away games and UCLA anywhere would be a tough win including the practice gym.

Flip out UCLA with one of the away games for a home game, and I'd feel a bit better. 

Lots of pessimists here. We're gonna win 7 out of the 6, my friends!

We Are Marquette!!

1-5

Quote from: MU82 on December 01, 2021, 07:10:00 AM
Lots of pessimists here. We're gonna win 7 out of the 6, my frents!

We Are Marquette!!

Fify

3 = success
2 = acceptable
1 = disappointing
0 = Fire Wojo

I am going with 3. Our BE opponents have had some early season struggles and may be vulnerable.

2-1 to end non conference means the boys just have to find a way to go 10-10 in BE play. Both 2-1 and 10-10 will be a significant challenge for this group though.

Depends when the wins come.  If we go 2-4 but those two wins are UConn and @St Johns, we'll go into January feeling pretty good about December.

These next 6 games will tell us what we have as a team. Being 7-1 at this point has me very cautiously optimistic and hope that they can be competitive and don't let the game get away from them in all 6 games. Guys rebound, rebound and rebound.

I'd sign for 3-3. 2-4 would not be a disaster.

The game on Saturday is a big game in regards to this upcoming stretch. None of these games are even close to slam dunk W's and the guys will need to grind one game at time. Oso's performance last night was a very encouraging sign that we have another guy who can step up and perform. I am sticking with optimistic opinion and voted four wins. It is going to take a minimum of three guys to play big on any given night and I believe there is enough firepower to do it. Lastly, I have been preaching the Shaka affect on this team and they will continue to build off of success.

Quote from: JWags85 on December 01, 2021, 06:46:13 AM
I know it's just projections and KenPom has its issues, but that's surprising given how meh KSU's season has been so far.

Eh. KenPom likes them because their defense came on strong at the end of last season. They held 5 of their last 7 opponents to less than 60 points and while three of those were against TCU and Iowa State, two were against Kansas and Oklahoma. They also held the up tempo Mountaineers to 65 in that stretch and hung in with the eventual National Champions losing by only 6. This season they've beaten all of their cupcakes by double digits (one only by 10 but another by 42) and lost two neutral site games to top 25 teams by single digits. Certainly nothing to brag about but I understand why they haven't been punished too harshly by KP.

Hopefully its more like Frankie Valli, and less like Counting Crows.

Process.

Quote from: lawdog77 on December 01, 2021, 09:34:18 AM
Hopefully its more like Frankie Valli, and less like Counting Crows.

Or Three Dog Night.

It's the loneliest number, you know.

Quote from: Pakuni on December 01, 2021, 08:08:16 AM
3 = success
2 = acceptable
1 = disappointing
0 = Fire Wojo

This is the correct answer.  Although if 1-disappointing win is vs. Wisconsin, then it's a success.

Quote from: Pakuni on December 01, 2021, 08:08:16 AM
3 = success
2 = acceptable
1 = disappointing
0 = Fire Wojo

I agree with this analysis.

I'm feelin' 4:

Madison, K-State, UConn, St. John's.

Wouldn't be surprised if we win at X, too.

Really, the only thing that would surprise me is if we beat UCLA. Wouldn't be stunned if we went 5-1 ... wouldn't be stunned if we went 1-5.

I would be absolutely floored if MU went 5-1 during that stretch with a loss to UCLA.

Seems nearly impossible in a time and age when anythings possible.

If that happens MU would be ranked near the top 10 in Jan

Each game is the most important game of the season.
If we remember that we will be fine.

Quote from: DoctorV on December 01, 2021, 07:00:45 PM
I would be absolutely floored if MU went 5-1 during that stretch with a loss to UCLA.

Seems nearly impossible in a time and age when anythings possible.

If that happens MU would be ranked near the top 10 in Jan

Wojo if that happens

(https://memegenerator.net/img/instances/85915882.jpg)

/chef's kiss

Quote from: MU82 on December 01, 2021, 06:54:41 PM
I'm feelin' 4:

Madison, K-State, UConn, St. John's.

Wouldn't be surprised if we win at X, too.

Really, the only thing that would surprise me is if we beat UCLA. Wouldn't be stunned if we went 5-1 ... wouldn't be stunned if we went 1-5.

I honestly have no idea what this team will do from one game to the next.

But there's a good chance we're bigger underdogs @ UW and @ Xavier than at home vs. UCLA

5DollarPitcher has us going 4-2 during this stretch.   I'm going with what he said until he's proven wrong. 

Quote from: Farley36 on December 01, 2021, 10:24:24 PM
5DollarPitcher has us going 4-2 during this stretch.   I'm going with what he said until he's proven wrong.

I just said 4-2, too, so I guess that pretty much seals it. Why even bother playing? Just give MU an 11-3 record and get on with the rest of the schedule!

Quote from: BM1090 on December 01, 2021, 10:21:50 PM
I honestly have no idea what this team will do from one game to the next.

But there's a good chance we're bigger underdogs @ UW and @ Xavier than at home vs. UCLA

Really? That'll be interesting to see. But I'd rather face Madison anywhere than UCLA, especially if Riley's back.

My favorite Collective Soul song.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6exsatE-DUk

The recipe for success:

1 = Beat Bucky (1 win)
2 = beat unranked teams at home (none of those in December)
3 = beat tier 3 and 4 big east teams home and away (at st Johns)... 2 wins
4 = Defend big east home court (Uconn)... 3 wins
5 = get really lucky (either K State away or UCLA at home)... more than 3 wins

Quote from: WarriorFan on December 01, 2021, 11:18:57 PM
The recipe for success:

1 = Beat Bucky (1 win)
2 = beat unranked teams at home (none of those in December)
3 = beat tier 3 and 4 big east teams home and away (at st Johns)... 2 wins
4 = Defend big east home court (Uconn)... 3 wins
5 = get really lucky (either K State away or UCLA at home)... more than 3 wins

I wouldn't put K State in the get lucky category.  That is likely one of the more if not the most winnable game of the 6. 
Most likely to least likely:
1. Kansas State (KenPom #72)
2. St John's (KenPom #55)
3. Wisconsin (KenPom #28)
4. Xavier (KenPom #33)
5. UConn (KenPom #26)
6. UCLA (KenPom #8)

I used KenPom only for the reference of how tough of stretched we have.  KState and Wisconsin were two of the more confident wins I had at the beginning of the year.  I was less confident with St John's at the beginning of the year but think that is more doable now. 

1-2 so far. Find a way to 2-4 and we are ok.

I'm have decent confidence we find a way to win 1 of the next 3.

I would bet large sum we do not win both of the next two and I'd bet the house we don't win all 3

But I think we can steal one here.