Illini favored by 8.5. We should have a huge chip on our shoulders.
Expected it to be more.
Why is this surprising to you?
Quote from: Vander Blue Man Group on November 15, 2021, 12:33:38 AM
Expected it to be more.
Why is this surprising to you?
I thought it would be closer to 4 or 5 .
I'm picturing Shaka trying to explain to O Max how being a 8.5 dog is such a slap in the face.
Quote from: MuggsyB on November 15, 2021, 12:43:09 AM
I thought it would be closer to 4 or 5 .
Not a chance. Even at home I expected to be double digit underdogs.
Fully expect the line to approach double digits as well as the day goes on.
I also think losing by 8.5 points seems very unlikely.
If we keep this a single digit loss, I will be impressed.
Take Illinois. Give the points.
Based on the title, I thought the spread was 20. I think 8.5 is a pretty optimistic view of MU.
Quote from: MuggsyB on November 15, 2021, 12:22:50 AM
Illini favored by 8.5. We should have a huge chip on our shoulders.
I've been telling you for awhile Muggsy. I'm honestly surprised it's not more
Quote from: MuggsyB on November 15, 2021, 12:43:09 AM
I thought it would be closer to 4 or 5 .
You don't bet much do you
Quote from: MuggsyB on November 15, 2021, 12:22:50 AM
Illini favored by 8.5. We should have a huge chip on our shoulders.
KenPom has Illinois by 9
I am expecting the Big Ten game beat down we have had over the start of the last several seasons. See Iowa, Michigan and Indiana so if it is 10 or less we did good.
Quote from: tower912 on November 15, 2021, 06:08:02 AM
Take Illinois. Give the points.
I'd like to bet Illinois but I can't living in Illinois. Bastards.
Seems about right or maybe even generous to me.
The subject is accurate. Road team as an 8.5 point favorite between two high major programs is a huge spread.
Not much money on this game...but both public and sharp money trending slightly towards IU with a hard stop at -8.5 for IU on sharp money. I should probably throw some $$$ on IU to help ease the pain of a bad loss, but a MU loss of 8 or less would really sting.
Quote from: avid1010 on November 15, 2021, 07:50:54 AM
Not much money on this game...but both public and sharp money trending slightly towards IU with a hard stop at -8.5 for IU on sharp money. I should probably throw some $$$ on IU to help ease the pain of a bad loss, but a MU loss of 8 or less would really sting.
Nitpick: IU = Indiana. UI or U of I = Illinois.
Quote from: BLM on November 15, 2021, 07:48:05 AM
The subject is accurate. Road team as an 8.5 point favorite between two high major programs is a huge spread.
Eh...Bucky is -5.5 at home against Providence. Ken Pom has Porvidence as the 78th best team and UW as the 40th....
MU at 95 and UI at 4...
Quote from: avid1010 on November 15, 2021, 08:05:05 AM
Eh...Bucky is -5.5 at home against Providence. Ken Pom has Porvidence as the 78th best team and UW as the 40th....
MU at 95 and UI at 4...
Yeah, that kind of makes my point. Bucky is ranked 38 spots higher than Providence and is at home, and they are only 5.5 point favorites. Marquette is at home and is 8.5 point underdogs. It's a very large spread for a home high major.
It's an enormous spread for a home power conf team. Especially with Illinois" injuries. I mean seriously does this mean UCLA will be favored by 25 in Milwaukee? Axe the nonsense and defeatist attitude. Our team has been disrespected and should have something to prove. We're not playing worldbeaters, the opportunity is there. Now obviously if we win it would be an upset with our brand new roster and youth, but I refuse to believe we should be heavy underdogs tonight. We're due to hit some shots and again we have absolutely nothing to lose. Punch them early and often and let's see how this pans out later.
Quote from: avid1010 on November 15, 2021, 08:05:05 AM
Eh...Bucky is -5.5 at home against Providence. Ken Pom has Porvidence as the 78th best team and UW as the 40th....
MU at 95 and UI at 4...
Kenpom means nothing after two games. You seriously think Illinois is the 4th best team in America? Without two starters? Think again.
Quote from: MuggsyB on November 15, 2021, 08:13:53 AM
It's an enormous spread for a home power conf team. Especially with Illinois" injuries. I mean seriously does this mean UCLA will be favored by 25 in Milwaukee? Axe the nonsense and defeatist attitude. Our team has been disrespected and should have something to prove. We're not playing worldbeaters, the opportunity is there. Now obviously if we win it would be an upset with our brand new roster and youth, but I refuse to believe we should be heavy underdogs tonight. We're due to hit some shots and again we have absolutely nothing to lose. Punch them early and often and let's see how this pans out later.
I mean, it's a message board. If people think we are going to lose big, there is no translation to what happens on court.
The "disrespected" stuff is kind of a tired motivational tool. Just play hard, limit mistakes and try not to do too much. This is an awesome opportunity - top 10 opponent at home on national television.
Quote from: BLM on November 15, 2021, 08:10:08 AM
Yeah, that kind of makes my point. Bucky is ranked 38 spots higher than Providence and is at home, and they are only 5.5 point favorites. Marquette is at home and is 8.5 point underdogs. It's a very large spread for a home high major.
i get it...that's probably a UW -2 line on the road. i thought MU would be -10.5.
Quote from: MuggsyB on November 15, 2021, 08:15:14 AM
Kenpom means nothing after two games. You seriously think Illinois is the 4th best team in America? Without two starters? Think again.
Yeah...I think the #'s Ken Pom uses to get his lines are the best there is after two games.
Quote from: MuggsyB on November 15, 2021, 08:13:53 AM
It's an enormous spread for a home power conf team. Especially with Illinois" injuries. I mean seriously does this mean UCLA will be favored by 25 in Milwaukee? Axe the nonsense and defeatist attitude. Our team has been disrespected and should have something to prove. We're not playing worldbeaters, the opportunity is there. Now obviously if we win it would be an upset with our brand new roster and youth, but I refuse to believe we should be heavy underdogs tonight. We're due to hit some shots and again we have absolutely nothing to lose. Punch them early and often and let's see how this pans out later.
I get that you like to get emotional...but if this is undeserved disrespect...put your $$$ where your mouth is. There is nothing remotely out of line with this spread.
Quote from: MuggsyB on November 15, 2021, 12:22:50 AM
Illini favored by 8.5. We should have a huge chip on our shoulders.
I was shocked to see the spread that high last night with the their best player not even playing yet.
Quote from: MuggsyB on November 15, 2021, 08:13:53 AM
It's an enormous spread for a home power conf team. Especially with Illinois" injuries. I mean seriously does this mean UCLA will be favored by 25 in Milwaukee? Axe the nonsense and defeatist attitude. Our team has been disrespected and should have something to prove. We're not playing worldbeaters, the opportunity is there. Now obviously if we win it would be an upset with our brand new roster and youth, but I refuse to believe we should be heavy underdogs tonight. We're due to hit some shots and again we have absolutely nothing to lose. Punch them early and often and let's see how this pans out later.
Muggsy, love your dedication to our team, but the spread and your perception of "disrespect", and "nonsense, defeatist attitude" (from some scoopers) will have absolutely
nothing to do with the outcome of tonight's game unless, of course, our team has a defeatist attitude, which I doubt very seriously. I do not think those here who disagree with you deserve to be called defeatist. What we all have in common today is the hope of an upset.
Quote from: tower912 on November 15, 2021, 06:08:02 AM
Take Illinois. Give the points.
Easy cover for the good guys. Value bet is MU ML. I wish you played at my poker table.
Quote from: Fluffy Blue Monster on November 15, 2021, 08:21:47 AM
I mean, it's a message board. If people think we are going to lose big, there is no translation to what happens on court.
The "disrespected" stuff is kind of a tired motivational tool. Just play hard, limit mistakes and try not to do too much. This is an awesome opportunity - top 10 opponent at home on national television.
The energy of the crowd can matter. Those of you lucky enough to go to the game you can't be mimes or catatonic. All I'm saying is use any motivation that is out there.
Quote from: Fluffy Blue Monster on November 15, 2021, 08:21:47 AM
The "disrespected" stuff is kind of a tired motivational tool. Just play hard, limit mistakes and try not to do too much. This is an awesome opportunity - top 10 opponent at home on national television.
Millennial speak, and I'm a millennial.
I tend to agree with Muggsy that the spread should be closer to 5, but that's just instinct based.
Regardless of the spread he's onto something- never too early for Shaka to develop that chip on the shoulder mentality, especially when playing on your own court as a fairly big underdog in the first big time game for most of those kids.
It's college basketball, it's much more emotional than cerebral. It's easy to just say limit mistakes and don't try to hard but that doesn't get across as well as work your a** off and show them this is our house. See Buzz Williams (more of the latter) versus Steve Wojo (more of the former).
Imo wojos biggest flaw as MU coach was the inability of his squads to protect their home court. Buzzes teams were amazing at this.
Something tells me if Shaka has a successful run it starts with being able to protect home court.
Not saying he needs to win this one, but showing up and being competitive could go a long way towards establishing a difficult home court going forward
This is a spot where a Wojo team gets completely dismantled (i.e. Iowa 2015). We no longer have a Wojo team. Everyone can shake that stink off now.
Quote from: MuggsyB on November 15, 2021, 08:15:14 AM
Kenpom means nothing after two games. You seriously think Illinois is the 4th best team in America? Without two starters? Think again.
Who is the other starter aside from the Big Fella?
Illinois best player is playing. Hopefully the press can force him to give up the ball early but in the halfcourt Curbelo probably shreds us like he does to everyone else.
Quote from: JTJ3 on November 15, 2021, 08:58:18 AM
Illinois best player is playing. Hopefully the press can force him to give up the ball early but in the halfcourt Curbelo probably shreds us like he does to everyone else.
Curbelo is good, but he's their second best player. Their best player is still suspended one more game for a very dumb reason.
Quote from: MuggsyB on November 15, 2021, 08:13:53 AM
It's an enormous spread for a home power conf team. Especially with Illinois" injuries. I mean seriously does this mean UCLA will be favored by 25 in Milwaukee? Axe the nonsense and defeatist attitude. Our team has been disrespected and should have something to prove. We're not playing worldbeaters, the opportunity is there. Now obviously if we win it would be an upset with our brand new roster and youth, but I refuse to believe we should be heavy underdogs tonight. We're due to hit some shots and again we have absolutely nothing to lose. Punch them early and often and let's see how this pans out later.
lol you should go give this cute pep talk to the boys.
I can state with incredible confidence nothing said on this message board will influence tonight's game
Quote from: DoctorV on November 15, 2021, 08:54:34 AM
Millennial speak, and I'm a millennial.
I tend to agree with Muggsy that the spread should be closer to 5, but that's just instinct based.
Regardless of the spread he's onto something- never too early for Shaka to develop that chip on the shoulder mentality, especially when playing on your own court as a fairly big underdog in the first big time game for most of those kids.
It's college basketball, it's much more emotional than cerebral. It's easy to just say limit mistakes and don't try to hard but that doesn't get across as well as work your a** off and show them this is our house. See Buzz Williams (more of the latter) versus Steve Wojo (more of the former).
Imo wojos biggest flaw as MU coach was the inability of his squads to protect their home court. Buzzes teams were amazing at this.
Something tells me if Shaka has a successful run it starts with being able to protect home court.
Not saying he needs to win this one, but showing up and being competitive could go a long way towards establishing a difficult home court going forward
Buzz Williams won because his teams played hard, recruited to a type of player and he was devoted to advanced metrics (eg, "paint touches") that best showed how to win in modern college basketball. Sure he was a motivator, and emotion was no doubt part of that, but I think you are way discounting the objective reasons why Buzz won and Wojo didn't. In fact, I would suggest that Wojo coached more on emotional than he did on tactics, and that was a big reason why his teams faltered down the stretch.
And the home court thing is a little nonsense. Buzz won at home consistently when his teams were good. But even then, and most definitely early at at MU, he lost more than his fair share of clunkers in the BC. Remember his likely best team? The one with Jae who got to the S16? They lost by almost 20 at home to a decent, but not great, Vanderbilt team.
Quote from: BLM on November 15, 2021, 07:48:05 AM
The subject is accurate. Road team as an 8.5 point favorite between two high major programs is a huge spread.
This is true. Even when a high major plays at a mid major 8.5 is a pretty big spread.
Quote from: JTJ3 on November 15, 2021, 08:58:18 AM
Illinois best player is playing. Hopefully the press can force him to give up the ball early but in the halfcourt Curbelo probably shreds us like he does to everyone else.
Morsell can not guard him? Really
Quote from: Lennys Tap on November 15, 2021, 09:12:53 AM
This is true. Even when a high major plays at a mid major 8.5 is a pretty big spread.
Especially since Cockburn is out and possibly another player or two.
Quote from: CountryRoads on November 15, 2021, 09:18:05 AM
Especially since Cockburn is out and possibly another player or two.
Who are the other players? People keep saying this
Quote from: PGsHeroes32 on November 15, 2021, 09:25:30 AM
Who are the other players? People keep saying this
Frazier and Curbelo missed their first game with injuries. But then they both played the last game.
IL basketball fans resemble ND football fans in some respects. There's a smugness and universal delusion across the fan base on how elite their program is, how storied their histories are (ND does have that), how much better of a head coaching job IL is, etc.
I recall they just assumed they could pluck Crean and/or Buzz away at their choosing, etc.
Having grown up in the northern suburbs of Chicago with several friends having gone to U of I, I would love nothing more than to beat these guys tonight.
Unlikely as it may be, I think we can make them cough it up and keep them out of sync. I think Shaka's going to have the team pretty amped up tonight. Would love to see it!
Quote from: PGsHeroes32 on November 15, 2021, 09:25:30 AM
Who are the other players? People keep saying this
There aren't any. Cockburn is the only one not playing as of right now.
Quote from: zcg2013 on November 15, 2021, 09:30:04 AM
Frazier and Curbelo missed their first game with injuries. But then they both played the last game.
Yeah knew that.
Considering they both played full workloads and finished healthy.
They are just as likely to be out as any other player in this game.
Heck, I'd be more worried Kolek plays than either of them.
https://twitter.com/JonRothstein/status/1460255773808902153?s=20
QuoteIllinois' Austin Hutcherson (tailbone) is a game-time decision, but doubtful for tonight's game against Marquette, per Brad Underwood.
Illinois played a team better than SIUE in their first game without 3 starters and a possible bench player and dismantled them by 24. We played at full strength minus Greg and struggled to beat sub-300 SIUE.
Illinois then played a team better than UNH in their second game without their best player and a possible bench player and blew them out by 39. We struggled to beat UNH by 5 (again without Greg).
There is no reason on paper to say that this line is uncalled for. We may very well lose by less than 8.5 or even win but every bit of objective data out there says that this line is fair. Honestly, I'd say it's closer to generous than unfair.
Quote from: BCHoopster on November 15, 2021, 09:16:40 AM
Morsell can not guard him? Really
Curbelo will be in the NBA a year from now. His ballhandling and ability to manipulate a defense is filthy.
If MU pulls the upset, do we storm the court?
(I say no)
One interesting storyline is that Illinois has a number of recruits that Wojo lost out on to them. Will be curious to see how they do this season:
Brandin Podziemski
Austin Hutcherson
Coleman Hawkins
Luke Goode
Shaka also went after Al Plummer as a transfer this summer
Quote from: BrewCity83 on November 15, 2021, 09:42:34 AM
If MU pulls the upset, do we storm the court?
(I say no)
I would say no. I think that's reserved for top 5 teams (and even 4 or 5 is pushing it in my opinion). However, if the students do it, I won't get upset about it.
Wish it was our court. Doesn't quite feel like a Marquette game playing on the Bucks court.
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on November 15, 2021, 09:45:26 AM
I would say no. I think that's reserved for top 5 teams (and even 4 or 5 is pushing it in my opinion). However, if the students do it, I won't get upset about it.
Did you think the Vesties might storm the court? ;D
Scoops own expert prognosticators see MU losing by 10.4 points. See prediction contest.
Quote from: PGsHeroes32 on November 15, 2021, 09:32:34 AM
Yeah knew that.
Considering they both played full workloads and finished healthy.
They are just as likely to be out as any other player in this game.
Heck, I'd be more worried Kolek plays than either of them.
Shooting last game aside, we can really use Kolek this game, especially with Elliot out. U of I has an excellent defense overall and a great individual defender in Trent Frazier. Assuming he locks down Morsell, other guys are going to have to step up offensively. Hopefully we will have a much better shooting night than we have demonstrated so far. I'm a big fan of Greg Elliot, but he really let the team down with whatever he did to get a lengthy suspension. We sure could use his knock down shooting.
Quote from: MuggsyB on November 15, 2021, 08:13:53 AM
It's an enormous spread for a home power conf team. Especially with Illinois" injuries. I mean seriously does this mean UCLA will be favored by 25 in Milwaukee? Axe the nonsense and defeatist attitude. Our team has been disrespected and should have something to prove. We're not playing worldbeaters, the opportunity is there. Now obviously if we win it would be an upset with our brand new roster and youth, but I refuse to believe we should be heavy underdogs tonight. We're due to hit some shots and again we have absolutely nothing to lose. Punch them early and often and let's see how this pans out later.
The spread is now -8, at least with Caesars. Also, MU has failed to cover the spread in their first two games.
Quote from: Scoop Snoop on November 15, 2021, 09:48:49 AM
Did you think the Vesties might storm the court? ;D
If there's a court storming, I'm joining. And I'm 60.
Quote from: The Lens on November 15, 2021, 01:14:19 AM
I'm picturing Shaka trying to explain to O Max how being a 8.5 dog is such a slap in the face.
Why? Is "O Max" known to be of low intelligence?
Quote from: MuggsyB on November 15, 2021, 08:13:53 AM
I refuse to believe we should be heavy underdogs tonight.
Nothing Marquette has done over the first two games leads me to believe they're ready to meet this level of competition yet. And that's totally fine, it's a process.
I'd love for them to have a crazy outlier shooting night, go on a heater from three, and pull off the upset. But I'm not counting on it.
Bet $5 on the money line for MU. Cheaper than a beer at Fserv. Upsets do happen and the first road game is always hard to win.
Quote from: StillWarriors on November 15, 2021, 09:55:09 AM
Shooting last game aside, we can really use Kolek this game, especially with Elliot out. U of I has an excellent defense overall and a great individual defender in Trent Frazier. Assuming he locks down Morsell, other guys are going to have to step up offensively. Hopefully we will have a much better shooting night than we have demonstrated so far. I'm a big fan of Greg Elliot, but he really let the team down with whatever he did to get a lengthy suspension. We sure could use his knock down shooting.
Agreed Kolek will be huge. Hopefully he can knock a few down. But also just need him to keep things under control and find guys in their spots like the first game. And hopefully guys hit the shots.
You're right about Greg. He's got a real role as a shooter on this team and not having him is killer. Especially Thursdays game as well which is much more winnable.
Quote from: MuggsyB on November 15, 2021, 12:22:50 AM
Illini favored by 8.5. We should have a huge chip on our shoulders.
Should be Illinois by 10.
Love your optimism muggsy. I'm super optimistic about this team too.
I don't think this message board is gonna ruin the team tonight.
And if you think this is bad? Wait til MU losses 3 in a row. Scoop will have some choice words.
I am super-pi$$ed that we're so disrespected!!! >:( >:( >:(
There. I hope that helps, Muggs!
Quote from: StillWarriors on November 15, 2021, 09:55:09 AM
Shooting last game aside, we can really use Kolek this game
I hope he can play
Quote from: MU82 on November 15, 2021, 10:09:15 AM
I am super-pi$$ed that we're so disrespected!!! >:( >:( >:(
There. I hope that helps, Muggs!
👍🏼👍🏼
A single digit loss likely means the game was competitive throughout - a very reasonable outcome. I fully expect that this season is rough, but if we can be competitive in every game I'll be happy - the thing I couldn't stand was the Wojo deer-in-headlines 1000 yard stare when we're getting the doors blown off. I would be very surprised if we ever see anything like that from Shaka - I expect us to be fighting to the very end in every game.
While the first two games have been far from impressive, I am expecting a better effort. IMO playing smarter, especially on the D side of the ball would do wonders for this team. They have had a ton of activity playing D, but a lot of wasting effort and energy. I do not think that they steal a W and would be happy with a smarter overall effort.
Quote from: 1SE on November 15, 2021, 10:12:20 AM
A single digit loss likely means the game was competitive throughout - a very reasonable outcome. I fully expect that this season is rough, but if we can be competitive in every game I'll be happy - the thing I couldn't stand was the Wojo deer-in-headlines 1000 yard stare when we're getting the doors blown off. I would be very surprised if we ever see anything like that from Shaka - I expect us to be fighting to the very end in every game.
That's a nice sentiment and all, but every coach has clunkers and gets the doors blown off on occasion. It will happen to Shaka, hopefully not as often as it happened to Wojo.
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on November 15, 2021, 10:25:11 AM
That's a nice sentiment and all, but every coach has clunkers and gets the doors blown off on occasion. It will happen to Shaka, hopefully not as often as it happened to Wojo.
Oh, of course we'll get the doors blown off - but I don't expect Shaka to give up like Wojo did and basically stand there looking like a dumba$$.
(https://www.si.com/.image/ar_1:1%2Cc_fill%2Ccs_srgb%2Cfl_progressive%2Cq_auto:good%2Cw_1200/MTY4MTkyMzk2NTEyNDA1NDA1/steve-wojciechowski-marquette-italy-tripjpg.jpg)
(https://bloximages.chicago2.vip.townnews.com/lacrossetribune.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/0/d8/0d89a4db-07ce-59c5-8ca6-cddcd62c6fde/5dd1c6d4e7f03.preview.jpg?crop=755%2C756%2C365%2C35&resize=1200%2C1202&order=crop%2Cresize)
(https://ewscripps.brightspotcdn.com/aa/07/61b9c01749eeb5891c7a36931802/ap20030246063961-1.jpg)
Quote from: 1SE on November 15, 2021, 10:33:47 AM
Oh, of course we'll get the doors blown off - but I don't expect Shaka to give up like Wojo did and basically stand there looking like a dumba$$.
(https://www.si.com/.image/ar_1:1%2Cc_fill%2Ccs_srgb%2Cfl_progressive%2Cq_auto:good%2Cw_1200/MTY4MTkyMzk2NTEyNDA1NDA1/steve-wojciechowski-marquette-italy-tripjpg.jpg)
(https://bloximages.chicago2.vip.townnews.com/lacrossetribune.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/0/d8/0d89a4db-07ce-59c5-8ca6-cddcd62c6fde/5dd1c6d4e7f03.preview.jpg?crop=755%2C756%2C365%2C35&resize=1200%2C1202&order=crop%2Cresize)
(https://ewscripps.brightspotcdn.com/aa/07/61b9c01749eeb5891c7a36931802/ap20030246063961-1.jpg)
I hope he yells more. Yelling = Wins
Quote from: fjm on November 15, 2021, 10:08:42 AM
Should be Illinois by 10.
Love your optimism muggsy. I'm super optimistic about this team too.
I don't think this message board is gonna ruin the team tonight.
I'm honestly venting a bit out loud. I know there are quite a few worries about this team but I have ti believe tonight we will see a different focus and intensity. I fully understand everyone's point of view here but 8.5 really surprised me. I also expect far less ticky-tack officiating. Anyway, if we play with great effort and tenacity and fall way short I can live it.. until the next game.
And if you think this is bad? Wait til MU losses 3 in a row. Scoop will have some choice words.
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on November 15, 2021, 10:25:11 AM
That's a nice sentiment and all, but every coach has clunkers and gets the doors blown off on occasion. It will happen to Shaka, hopefully not as often as it happened to Wojo.
So we won't try 1-5 standard pick and roll actions at the start of each play on offense? or a left wing 1-4 pick and pop? And we won't run a half court man to man hard hedge defense not going for any passes for the entire game?
What is this madeness?
Quote from: Uncle Rico on November 15, 2021, 10:40:04 AM
I hope he yells more. Yelling = Wins
I just hope he has an ingame Plan B and Plan C, instead of just trying the same thing that isn't work, but
harder
I'm still really ticked off that Wojo unleashed COVID-19 on the world. Thankfully, Shaka's the one who'll end the pandemic.
Some interesting thoughts in this thread.
I'm not betting this game because I live in Illinois and don't feel like using an offshore, but I'd go contrarian and bet the first half under 69.5. Total opened at 67.5 and climbed up. MU first half team total unders are 2-0 thus far, and I'd take my chances on this with the Illini hitting the road for the first time.
Quote from: DegenerateDish on November 15, 2021, 12:42:20 PM
Some interesting thoughts in this thread.
I'm not betting this game because I live in Illinois and don't feel like using an offshore, but I'd go contrarian and bet the first half under 69.5. Total opened at 67.5 and climbed up. MU first half team total unders are 2-0 thus far, and I'd take my chances on this with the Illini hitting the road for the first time.
Good take.
The last 3 years in the NCAA tourney I made a real solid amount of coin betting the first half unders on all the first round games.
I know people are looking at Illinois missing players and thinking the line might be wrong, but bear in mind that this depleted Illinois team was favored by 24.5 in their opener and won by 24, and favored by 20.5 in their second game and won by 39. Meanwhile, Marquette was favored by 20.5 and won by 11 in the opener and favored by 13 and won by 5 in their second. So far, they have met or outdone expectations while we have fallen significantly short, despite the record.
Maybe it would've been closer to -6 if we had played better or they had played worse, but so far one roster has exceeded expectations based on the spread and one has failed to meet expectations, and the spread reflects that based on the personnel that will be playing tonight.
Yeah butt, Woj's teems wur tired, hey?
Seems right to me.
We struggled against SIUE and UNH.
Illinois is a top 10 team with most of the lineup back healthy.
I'd consider an 8 point loss a step in the right direction for the season.
Quote from: jesmu84 on November 15, 2021, 03:20:44 PM
Seems right to me.
We struggled against SIUE and UNH.
Illinois is a top 10 team with most of the lineup back healthy.
I'd consider an 8 point loss a step in the right direction for the season.
If we lose by 8 , play well, and they're just too good that's a positive. If we play poorly and lose by 8 that's a different story.
Quote from: MuggsyB on November 15, 2021, 03:50:38 PM
If we lose by 8 , play well, and they're just too good that's a positive. If we play poorly and lose by 8 that's a different story.
If we play poorly and lose by 8, that's also a huge positive. It means we can beat top teams if we don't play poorly.
Quote from: BrewCity83 on November 15, 2021, 04:26:04 PM
If we play poorly and lose by 8, that's also a huge positive. It means we can beat top teams if we don't play poorly.
We don't know how good Illinois is but your point is well taken
Quote from: MuggsyB on November 15, 2021, 04:30:28 PM
We don't know how good Illinois is but your point is well taken
We know that at worst they are a top 25 quality team and at best they are probably top 5. Either way, far better than MU at this point.
Quote from: Fluffy Blue Monster on November 15, 2021, 08:21:47 AM
The "disrespected" stuff is kind of a tired motivational tool. Just play hard, limit mistakes and try not to do too much. This is an awesome opportunity - top 10 opponent at home on national television.
The Illini coach is probably using the same 'disrespected' line that they are only 8.5 faves.
I'm hoping for a good game, but it will be hard to be stay within 15.
Quote from: bilsu on November 15, 2021, 10:03:15 AM
Bet $5 on the money line for MU. Cheaper than a beer at Fserv. Upsets do happen and the first road game is always hard to win.
Now that is a reasonable bet.
Quote from: BrewCity83 on November 15, 2021, 04:26:04 PM
If we play poorly and lose by 8, that's also a huge positive. It means we can beat top teams if we don't play poorly.
If we play poorly, there is a 0% chance we only lose by 8.
Quote from: Jockey on November 15, 2021, 05:56:24 PM
If we play poorly, there is a 0% chance we only lose by 8.
Probably true.
Quote from: DegenerateDish on November 15, 2021, 12:42:20 PM
Some interesting thoughts in this thread.
I'm not betting this game because I live in Illinois and don't feel like using an offshore, but I'd go contrarian and bet the first half under 69.5. Total opened at 67.5 and climbed up. MU first half team total unders are 2-0 thus far, and I'd take my chances on this with the Illini hitting the road for the first time.
Hopefully one of you boys or girls made some $$$ off this advice.
Quote from: bilsu on November 15, 2021, 10:03:15 AM
Bet $5 on the money line for MU. Cheaper than a beer at Fserv. Upsets do happen and the first road game is always hard to win.
Did anyone listen to me? :)
Quote from: bilsu on November 15, 2021, 08:19:28 PM
Did anyone listen to me? :)
Ha!
Man I was way wrong about this game. I'll eat crow.
Quote from: 5DollarPitcher on November 15, 2021, 08:53:15 AM
Easy cover for the good guys. Value bet is MU ML. I wish you played at my poker table.
BUMP
Quote from: Fluffy Blue Monster on November 15, 2021, 09:12:47 AM
Buzz Williams won because his teams played hard, recruited to a type of player and he was devoted to advanced metrics (eg, "paint touches") that best showed how to win in modern college basketball. Sure he was a motivator, and emotion was no doubt part of that, but I think you are way discounting the objective reasons why Buzz won and Wojo didn't. In fact, I would suggest that Wojo coached more on emotional than he did on tactics, and that was a big reason why his teams faltered down the stretch.
And the home court thing is a little nonsense. Buzz won at home consistently when his teams were good. But even then, and most definitely early at at MU, he lost more than his fair share of clunkers in the BC. Remember his likely best team? The one with Jae who got to the S16? They lost by almost 20 at home to a decent, but not great, Vanderbilt team.
This^ reminds me A LOT of what we witnessed tonight. At the 9:56 mark, an inexperienced team (that had only played 2 games together) was down by 12 points. I totally expected them to roll over and for ILL lead to grow. Instead the exact opposite happened. They played hard and refused to go down without a fight. THIS is the Marquette culture that was missing in recent years.
Quote from: goldeneagle91114 on November 15, 2021, 10:15:19 PM
They played hard and refused to go down without a fight. THIS is the Marquette culture that was missing in recent years.
On Jan. 24, 2017, Marquette fell 17 points down to No. 1 Villanova. Came back and won the game.
I'd 100% rather have Shaka coaching us than Wojo, and I loved the fight the guys showed tonight, loved beating Illinois. But let's not pretend that MU teams prior to this were a bunch of quitters, because it's simply not true. It's also not a narrative that's necessary to enjoy this very enjoyable victory.
Quote from: MU82 on November 15, 2021, 10:53:17 PM
On Jan. 24, 2017, Marquette fell 17 points down to No. 1 Villanova. Came back and won the game.
I'd 100% rather have Shaka coaching us than Wojo, and I loved the fight the guys showed tonight, loved beating Illinois. But let's not pretend that MU teams prior to this were a bunch of quitters, because it's simply not true. It's also not a narrative that's necessary to enjoy this very enjoyable victory.
Hahahahahahahahahaha
Quote from: MU82 on November 15, 2021, 10:53:17 PM
On Jan. 24, 2017, Marquette fell 17 points down to No. 1 Villanova. Came back and won the game.
I'd 100% rather have Shaka coaching us than Wojo, and I loved the fight the guys showed tonight, loved beating Illinois. But let's not pretend that MU teams prior to this were a bunch of quitters, because it's simply not true. It's also not a narrative that's necessary to enjoy this very enjoyable victory.
Wojo had some really great wins - he just couldn't build on them within or across seasons. We'll see what Shaka can do.
Quote from: 1SE on November 16, 2021, 12:51:01 AM
Wojo had some really great wins - he just couldn't build on them within or across seasons. We'll see what Shaka can do.
This is true great wins followed losing streaks. But some wins that were not expected.