Is Home Court really an advantage this season?
Quote from: muwarrior69 on December 20, 2020, 12:00:13 PM
Is Home Court really an advantage this season?
++ "At least so far, it appears home-court advantage is about 60 percent of what we've seen in previous seasons. That would mean that the presence of fans is responsible for about 40 percent of home-court advantage."
KenPom
I posted this a few days ago in the main college hoops thread ...
In The Athletic, Ken Pomeroy says that early-season results show that home-court advantage has been reduced significantly this season. That was expected, but even he seems surprised at the degree.
https://theathletic.com/2268722/2020/12/18/college-basketball-home-court-advantage-covid-no-fans-kenpom/?source=dailyemail
I'm not going to cut and paste, because I want to honor the paywall, but a few highlights ...
++ "Over the past five seasons, the home team has won 60.1 percent of conference games. Through Wednesday, home teams have gone 36-28 this season, for a winning percentage of 56.3 percent. If it holds, it would crush the previous record for home-team futility of 59.0 percent in the 2016-17 season."
++ It's a small sample subjected to the randomness of early-season matchups and better conclusions can be made in a month or so.
++ Average home scoring margin relative to the "home-court-less predictions" to this point in the season is about 60% of the previous 5 seasons.
++ "Home foul advantage" has dropped by more than a foul per game. "Foul calls have been less lopsided toward the home team than in the past, suggesting the drop in point differential isn't a fluke. Even without fans, officials want to please the home team, but not as much as they used to."
++ "At least so far, it appears home-court advantage is about 60 percent of what we've seen in previous seasons. That would mean that the presence of fans is responsible for about 40 percent of home-court advantage."
++ Still give a team credit for winning on the road, "just not as much as you have in the past."
Less of an advantage for sure, but still an advantage. Home team doesn't have to travel, can sleep in their own beds, chooses which ball gets used for the game, is used to the sightlines in the building, is used to the rims, all little things that play a role in home court advantage.