You couldn't design a better fit for Wojo's system and this roster in particular than what Carton brings. I went in depth a bit on what exactly makes it so.
https://painttouches.com/2020/04/16/what-does-d-j-carton-bring-to-marquette/ (https://painttouches.com/2020/04/16/what-does-d-j-carton-bring-to-marquette/)
How does a "good to great" defender cause our AdjDE to go up?
Is it a PPP thing or a rating?
Quote from: mileskishnish72 on April 16, 2020, 11:14:55 AM
How does a "good to great" defender cause our AdjDE to go up?
Is it a PPP thing or a rating?
It's still very difficult to get non-boxscore individual defensive metrics, so outside of big shotblockers or thiefs, most individuals won't make a dent in DRrtg. TRank also relies heavily on coaching history to get projections so it will be low because Wojo's history is poor, and then adds in stuff like Stl% and Reb% where Carton doesn't excel. Since Koby is seeing a big drop in minutes, and he's a fabulous rebounder, it negatively affects the projection.
But in general, the projections on D are much less accurate/predictive than on O, particularly just using box score as data, as he does.
Quote from: mileskishnish72 on April 16, 2020, 11:14:55 AM
How does a "good to great" defender cause our AdjDE to go up?
Is it a PPP thing or a rating?
As Andrei noted, Carton was a great man defender. But there are a few problems with using Synergy numbers for individual defenders. Defense is such a team effort that you will often see individuals on a good defensive team seem to be above average because the help defenders are doing their job. The way Synergy works, it analyzes how the offensive player who is "your guy" at the start of your possession does. Switches and help defense can vastly impact the veracity of those numbers. Factor in that Ohio State had a top-20 adjusted defense and you would expect their guys to look pretty good individually, even if they weren't.
With that caveat, I noticed a couple things when breaking down DJC's defensive numbers. Here's what I saw that gave me encouragement:
- Carton's individual defensive ppp was 0.688, which ranked as "excellent" and in the 88th percentile of all players. Carton's rank was 2nd on Ohio State (0.687 for EJ Liddell) so he graded out as among the best defenders on a good defensive team.
- Carton was also excellent in isolation, allowing just 6 points on 13 possessions (0.462) which is the 87th percentile. So when someone tried to take him one-on-one, he shut them down. That includes 1/8 shooting from the field, so he was limiting guys to misses, turnovers, or free throws.
- As a team, Ohio State's defense was 200th in turnover percentage and 291st in steal percentage. What that says to me is he knows how to thrive in a defense that doesn't emphasize turnovers (just like Wojo's). His 1.6 steal percentage was identical to Howard's, so he can play that role.
Thanks, guys.
Wojo has a system?