MUScoop

Ranked 29 ahead of the DePaul game (game #22)

Currently 15-6 (5-4)

Nine regular-season games left.
KenPom has MU going 8-1 the rest of the way.
* 32% of winning at Nova is the one loss
* 51% MU wins against Seton Hall at home is the tightest game
* 54% change MU wins at Depaul and against Butler at home are the next tightest games. 
* The rest of the games are higher than 54%

If this happens, MU finishes 23-7 (13-5)


Here is the updated Kenpom game-by-game ranking this season versus last year.
(https://snipboard.io/HAF0dL.jpg)

Say my name..

Quote from: Heisenberg v2.0 on January 31, 2020, 12:36:44 AM
Ranked 29 ahead of the DePaul game (game #22)

Currently 15-6 (5-4)

Nine regular-season games left.
KenPom has MU going 8-1 the rest of the way.
* 32% of winning at Nova is the one loss
* 51% MU wins against Seton Hall at home is the tightest game
* 54% change MU wins at Depaul and against Butler at home are the next tightest games. 
* The rest of the games are higher than 54%

If this happens, MU finishes 23-7 (13-5)


Here is the updated Kenpom game-by-game ranking this season versus last year.
(https://snipboard.io/HAF0dL.jpg)

You know that's not how probability works right? Having MU favoured in 8 isn't the same having MU going 8-1

Quote from: 1SE on January 31, 2020, 01:33:13 AM
You know that's not how probability works right? Having MU favoured in 8 isn't the same having MU going 8-1

yes ... and that is why I started my comment with "if this happens."

I trust you now know what that means.

You ain't no heisenberg 2.0. You ain't even heisenberg  -2.0

Quote from: Heisenberg v2.0 on January 31, 2020, 12:36:44 AM
Ranked 29 ahead of the DePaul game (game #22)

Currently 15-6 (5-4)

Nine regular-season games left.
KenPom has MU going 8-1 the rest of the way.
* 32% of winning at Nova is the one loss
* 51% MU wins against Seton Hall at home is the tightest game
* 54% change MU wins at Depaul and against Butler at home are the next tightest games. 
* The rest of the games are higher than 54%

If this happens, MU finishes 23-7 (13-5)


Here is the updated Kenpom game-by-game ranking this season versus last year.
(https://snipboard.io/HAF0dL.jpg)

Holy cow. Who wouldn't take 8-1 the test of the way. Is that number correct?

I feel like we have to go through this every year.

"KenPom has MU going 8-1 the rest of the way." is not the same as "KenPom has MU favored in 8 of 9 games the rest of the way"

This is a cumulative probability problem. I don't have access to the game-by-game probabilities, but making the simplifying assumption that each game is a coin flip to use a binomial probability calculator, the probability of MU winning 8 of 9 is 0.0195 - about 2%.

To get to a probability of MU winning 8 of 9 that is greater than 50% (What I might say is more in line with "KenPom has MU going 8-1 the rest of the way) they would need to be better than 82% favorites in EVERY game the rest of the way.

With all the game-by-game probabilities we could calculate the probability of MU going 8-1 using the the sum of independent binomial trials.


Using probabilities of .32, .51, .54, .54, .6, .6, .6, .6, .6 you get a ~ 3.4% probability of winning 8 of 9 games. If you can post the probabilities of other games I can calculate it more exactly.  The full probability table of (with Scoop poll results along side):

games   p(=)               p(>=)       poll exact      poll cumulative 9      0.00370053   0.00370053   0.019   0.019 8      0.03005874   0.03375927   0.012   0.031 7      0.1052208   0.13898007   0.086   0.117 6      0.2098784   0.34885847   0.358   0.475 5      0.2641576   0.61301607   0.389   0.864 4      0.2182891   0.83130517   0.123   0.987 3      0.1187199   0.95002507   0.006   0.993 2      0.04105179   0.99107686   0           0.993 1      0.008201051   0.999277911   0           0.993 0   0.000721972   0.999999883   0.006   0.999

Incidentally - the scoop poll is far more optimistic than these numbers with 47.5% expectation 11-7 or better compared to 35.8% from these numbers

Quote from: willie warrior on January 31, 2020, 04:37:36 AM
Holy cow. Who wouldn't take 8-1 the test of the way. Is that number correct?

No - that's a misleading way for Heisi to put it - see my post just now.

Another fun aside - all these kinds of calculations rest on assumption of independence of events - i.e. you put each game behind you. If you think streaks matter (winning begets more winning, losing begets more losing) then we need to enter the realm of Bayesian statistics - but I've spent enough time on this already...  :D

Thats where Tower had us even during Armageddon.  Hope it works out. It would be one hell of a regular season.

Quote from: Shooter McGavin on January 31, 2020, 04:44:17 AM
Thats where Tower had us even during Armageddon.  Hope it works out. It would be one hell of a regular season.

AAAHHH please read my posts - the probability of that (8-1) happening is about 3.4%!!!!

Quote from: 1SE on January 31, 2020, 04:45:25 AM
AAAHHH please read my posts - the probability of that (8-1) happening is about 3.4%!!!!

Hush up. Why don't you and your fellow nerds retire to the nerdery with your calculators.

I don't have time to go back and check right now, but I don't know if I ever said 13-5.    I said good team, similar record, and predicted 22-24 wins.   When many were saying the sky was falling.

Right now, I am feeling 21 regular season wins.   Going to need some post season success, both in MSG and the dance.

Quote from: 1SE on January 31, 2020, 04:45:25 AM
AAAHHH please read my posts - the probability of that (8-1) happening is about 3.4%!!!!

Ok, I get it, so 9-0 is like 99% likely, right?

Quote from: PTM on January 31, 2020, 05:31:52 AM
Hush up. Why don't you and your fellow nerds retire to the nerdery with your calculators.

(https://media.giphy.com/media/xT5LMX2klMf9k1GdEs/giphy.gif)

Quote from: Windyplayer on January 31, 2020, 05:34:05 AM
Ok, I get it, so 9-0 is like 99% likely, right?

(https://media1.tenor.com/images/0a6182efc5ec93a6242b570f81394c0e/tenor.gif?itemid=11098164)

For what it's worth his predicted game scores shows us going 13-5 but he still predicts we finish 10-8.

Quote from: TallTitan34 on January 31, 2020, 07:10:46 AM
For what it's worth his predicted game scores shows us going 13-5 but he still predicts we finish 10-8.

That does not update

Quote from: Windyplayer on January 31, 2020, 05:34:05 AM
Ok, I get it, so 9-0 is like 99% likely, right?

Sixty percent of the time it works every time

Quote from: Heisenberg v2.0 on January 31, 2020, 03:37:29 PM
That does not update

Projected record? Yes it does. It updates constantly. It's just an aggregate of the sum of the percentages left in the season added to the current win total.

For instance, we are 5-4 in league. If you add all the percentages in our remaining 9 games, they total 5.17. So that gets us to 10 wins. If we lose to DePaul, that would drop us not only to 5-5, but to an aggregate win percentage below 4.4 (removing the 0.77 for DePaul and our ranking would drop so all of our future percentages would also decline) which would almost certainly give us a 9-9 predicted finish.

EDIT: For instance, Butler is currently listed at a 12-6 projected record in league. Their 5 current wins plus the 6.59 sum of the win percentages for their remaining 10 Big East games. To start the season, Butler was ranked 33rd, behind Villanova, Marquette, Xavier, Seton Hall, and Providence. Yet now they are projected to win more league games than three of those teams. That was certainly not the projection in November.

If we go 23-7 based on what's left for the year and win a couple of games in the NCAA, Coach Wojo should be Big East COY and possibly National COY.

I mean, think about it. We lose two key starters off last year's team, have a significant piece of our bench leave us, lose a key reserve (GE) for six games and still go 23-7.

Whoa! If Mane doesn't show up after that, well, then I'll become a bigger baseball fan, LOL!

We'll see what happens but I'm all in on 23-7 or better!

Right now it would be really difficult for Wojo to pass up Willard, much less guys like Brian Dutcher or Scott Drew. If we did finish 23-7 and 13-5 was good enough to win the league outright (seems unlikely) then I could see BECOY, but at this point those awards look pretty far out of reach.

Quote from: brewcity77 on January 31, 2020, 04:02:35 PM
Right now it would be really difficult for Wojo to pass up Willard, much less guys like Brian Dutcher or Scott Drew. If we did finish 23-7 and 13-5 was good enough to win the league outright (seems unlikely) then I could see BECOY, but at this point those awards look pretty far out of reach.

I said preseason I expected MU in the top 4. I thought MU had a better chance to win the BET as the team develops. I am still there pending health.

8-1??

BECOY???

National COY????

Quote from: Heisenberg v2.0 on January 31, 2020, 12:36:44 AM
Nine regular-season games left.
KenPom has MU going 8-1 the rest of the way.

If by "8-1", you mean "5-4", then yes, you are stating facts.

Quote from: Heisenberg v2.0 on January 31, 2020, 03:37:29 PM
That does not update

(https://i.imgflip.com/1zrxcn.jpg)

Lots of lead in the water I see.

(https://media1.tenor.com/images/3c58c30211a0f29ab24f672988d25c67/tenor.gif)

im not really sure how all the numbers work but

30. Wisconsin
31. Marquette

Very confused

Quote from: GoldenEagles32 on February 03, 2020, 12:21:41 PM
im not really sure how all the numbers work but

30. Wisconsin
31. Marquette

Very confused

Sheesh that aint the worst of it. Purude(who we actually beat) is 12-10 with a couple solid wins

They are like 15th in BPI. In front of us in Kenpom and Top 30 in Saragin(though behind us)

Going into Game 23 (Butler), here is MU's KenPom rating, game-by-game, this year versus last year.

Butler is ranked #17 on Kenpom.  He gives MU a 57% chance of winning the game... 71-70 on 67 total possessions.

I'll guess we move up 3 to 5 spots to around 25 - 28 on Kenpom with a win and maybe drop 2 or 3 spots with a loss (32-33)

(https://snipboard.io/6rbAXT.jpg)

Depends on margin. Win by 1 and we probably won't move an inch.

Quote from: brewcity77 on February 09, 2020, 09:36:51 AM
Depends on margin. Win by 1 and we probably won't move an inch.

Also, all the other games of teams rated around us matter too.  They are not stationary.

Quote from: Johnny B on January 31, 2020, 03:42:27 AM
You ain't no heisenberg 2.0. You ain't even heisenberg  -2.0

I'll take heisenberg giving two points...

22 after the thumping.......might pass Butler after UW game gets posted.

Quote from: MuMark on February 09, 2020, 02:03:00 PM
22 after the thumping.......might pass Butler after UW game gets posted.

This is where we stand now.  It can change as more scores are reported today.

That said, 22 is a better rating than at any point last year.

So is the 2020 "Hauserless" MU team better than the 2019 MU team?

(https://snipboard.io/dQOs4W.jpg)

Quote from: Heisenberg v2.0 on February 09, 2020, 02:11:51 PMSo is the 2020 "Hauserless" MU team better than the 2019 MU team?

Yes, but not as good as a MU team this year with the Hausers would be.

Quote from: brewcity77 on February 09, 2020, 02:44:46 PM
Yes, but not as good as a MU team this year with the Hausers would be.

IMPOSSIBLE TO KNOW....Sacar wouldn't be here nor would at least one or two other guys...our defense would be nowhere close to where it is today, so let's not pretend the Hausers and the same guys would be on this team.  No Johnson either.

Quote from: brewcity77 on February 09, 2020, 02:44:46 PM
Yes, but not as good as a MU team this year with the Hausers would be.

If the Hausers stayed, who would have left?

Not that it effects this season but I don't think we get Dawson if Joey was still here.

Quote from: brewcity77 on February 09, 2020, 02:44:46 PM
Yes, but not as good as a MU team this year with the Hausers would be.

(https://media1.tenor.com/images/8c0afd76c2ff920218e7f5b1cb76c5dd/tenor.gif)

Quote from: brewcity77 on February 09, 2020, 02:44:46 PM
Yes, but not as good as a MU team this year with the Hausers would be.

Impossible to know, my friend.

Sam would be great on this year's team. A pouty Joey, wishing he were playing someplace else while he lets one opponent after another score, I don't know. And as others have said, who knows which others wouldn't be here.

I like this year's team, just as I liked last year's team until the Hausers imploded it.

Quote from: Pakuni on February 09, 2020, 02:54:19 PM
(https://media1.tenor.com/images/8c0afd76c2ff920218e7f5b1cb76c5dd/tenor.gif)

Awesome.

Quote from: Cheeks on February 09, 2020, 02:47:13 PM
IMPOSSIBLE TO KNOW....Sacar wouldn't be here nor would at least one or two other guys...our defense would be nowhere close to where it is today, so let's not pretend the Hausers and the same guys would be on this team.  No Johnson either.

Hmm.  Except it was AFTER the Hausers announced their transfer, that the coaching staff (particularly Stan), went full on re-recruit, and retain those left in program - including Sacar, Bailey and Cain.

Hausers ultimately did Wojo and the other guys a favor on the team, by sending Wojo a loud and clear wake up call.

Quote from: Elonsmusk on February 09, 2020, 03:05:33 PM

Hausers ultimately did Wojo and the other guys a favor on the team, by sending Wojo a loud and clear wake up call.

Yeah.  Don't pamper the petulant.

Quote from: Elonsmusk on February 09, 2020, 03:05:33 PM
Hmm.  Except it was AFTER the Hausers announced their transfer, that the coaching staff (particularly Stan), went full on re-recruit, and retain those left in program - including Sacar, Bailey and Cain.

So?

Quote from: Elonsmusk on February 09, 2020, 03:05:33 PM
Hmm.  Except it was AFTER the Hausers announced their transfer, that the coaching staff (particularly Stan), went full on re-recruit, and retain those left in program - including Sacar, Bailey and Cain.

Hausers ultimately did Wojo and the other guys a favor on the team, by sending Wojo a loud and clear wake up call.

LOL

You are so out of your element here. 

So, we seeing each other in Houston so I can prove I am not Billy or Dad or WhoaJoe?


Meanwhile, up to 21 in Ken Pom.

Elon is just reinforcing his own narrative. It's what he does. Remember the whole "Buzz lost to stick it to the administration" stuff?

Quote from: Elonsmusk on February 09, 2020, 03:05:33 PM
Hmm.  Except it was AFTER the Hausers announced their transfer, that the coaching staff (particularly Stan), went full on re-recruit, and retain those left in program - including Sacar, Bailey and Cain.

Hausers ultimately did Wojo and the other guys a favor on the team, by sending Wojo a loud and clear wake up call.

Sorry we won today so you have to be sad. You cry baby.

Happy NMD. How about try to be cheerful. For once.

Try it. Just once.

Quote from: tower912 on February 09, 2020, 02:47:20 PM
If the Hausers stayed, who would have left?

Sacar, Greg and Jamal.

Quote from: Fluffy Blue Monster on February 09, 2020, 03:14:56 PM
Elon is just reinforcing his own narrative. It's what he does. Remember the whole "Buzz lost to stick it to the administration" stuff?

I remember posting very early Buzz's last season that he wasn't right. Remember posting that the Larry Williams comments to Journal pissed Buzz off. Remember being called a tin foil hat guy by you and the other experts here.

What happened?  Buzz turned in a terrible last year at MU and was gone 4 days after the season. He was checked out that whole season. And he was pissed off. Perhaps on your world disgruntled employees produce their best work, but that's usually not the case.

Quote from: MU82 on February 09, 2020, 03:10:16 PM
So?

So..the whole notion that others would have left if the Hausers stayed was irrelevant...because the others still needed to be re-sold/re-recruited by the staff to stay.

Fortunately they salvaged the rest of the roster and the team is more cohesive this year - and exceeding my expectations. So. That's great. But there is no need to push a false narrative as Cheeks did.

Quote from: Elonsmusk on February 09, 2020, 03:26:15 PM
So..the whole notion that others would have left if the Hausers stayed was irrelevant...because the others still needed to be re-sold/re-recruited by the staff to stay.

Fortunately they salvaged the rest of the roster and the team is more cohesive this year - and exceeding my expectations. So. That's great. But there is no need to push a false narrative as Cheeks did.

Please prove that you aren't pushing a false narrative and that this is more than your opinion.

Quote from: Elonsmusk on February 09, 2020, 03:23:45 PM
I remember posting very early Buzz's last season that he wasn't right. Remember posting that the Larry Williams comments to Journal pissed Buzz off. Remember being called a tin foil hat guy by you and the other experts here.

What happened?  Buzz turned in a terrible last year at MU and was gone 4 days after the season. He was checked out that whole season. And he was pissed off. Perhaps on your world disgruntled employees produce their best work, but that's usually not the case.

Hope you are wrong. Have had total jags as clients and still did my best, and I dont make seven figures.

If you are right Buzz has zero integrity as a human being.

Larry Williams was fired a couple weeks into Buzz's final season. Pilarz was long gone by then. Your explanation makes no sense.

Quote from: brewcity77 on February 09, 2020, 02:44:46 PM
Yes, but not as good as a MU team this year with the Hausers would be.

Assuming they fixed whatever chemistry issues were there I agree Brew.

Quote from: Elonsmusk on February 09, 2020, 03:05:33 PM
Hmm.  Except it was AFTER the Hausers announced their transfer, that the coaching staff (particularly Stan), went full on re-recruit, and retain those left in program - including Sacar, Bailey and Cain.

Hausers ultimately did Wojo and the other guys a favor on the team, by sending Wojo a loud and clear wake up call.

Jamie referenced it, but you are officially MUScoop Donny.

(https://m.imgur.com/LXvdJpT?r)

Quote from: Elonsmusk on February 09, 2020, 03:23:45 PM
I remember posting very early Buzz's last season that he wasn't right. Remember posting that the Larry Williams comments to Journal pissed Buzz off. Remember being called a tin foil hat guy by you and the other experts here.

What happened?  Buzz turned in a terrible last year at MU and was gone 4 days after the season. He was checked out that whole season. And he was pissed off. Perhaps on your world disgruntled employees produce their best work, but that's usually not the case.

17-15 with several overtime losses with a backcourt of Wilson and Thomas was a pretty good coaching job.

Quote from: Elonsmusk on February 09, 2020, 03:23:45 PM
I remember posting very early Buzz's last season that he wasn't right. Remember posting that the Larry Williams comments to Journal pissed Buzz off. Remember being called a tin foil hat guy by you and the other experts here.

What happened?  Buzz turned in a terrible last year at MU and was gone 4 days after the season. He was checked out that whole season. And he was pissed off. Perhaps on your world disgruntled employees produce their best work, but that's usually not the case.

Sure it had nothing to do with the talent assembled.  I was in Anaheim where he told us point blank no one on the team can shoot.  They were devoid of actual talent.  Point blank he told us the team had significant shortcomings.  I sat right behind the bench and had a chance to see Father Kelly. 

Quote from: bilsu on February 09, 2020, 08:08:48 PM
17-15 with several overtime losses with a backcourt of Wilson and Thomas was a pretty good coaching job.

They were picked to win the league by the coaches.......now we can argue about how bad that year was......but not even being close to the NIT that season was not a " pretty good coaching g job".

Quote from: Elonsmusk on February 09, 2020, 03:26:15 PM
So..the whole notion that others would have left if the Hausers stayed was irrelevant...because the others still needed to be re-sold/re-recruited by the staff to stay.

Fortunately they salvaged the rest of the roster and the team is more cohesive this year - and exceeding my expectations. So. That's great. But there is no need to push a false narrative as Cheeks did.

I pushed no such false narrative....what you stated is wrong. 

Quote from: PTM on February 09, 2020, 04:53:26 PM
Jamie referenced it, but you are officially MUScoop Donny.

(https://m.imgur.com/LXvdJpT?r)

Thank you. You continue to be an MUScoop non-factor. Carry on.

Quote from: Elonsmusk on February 09, 2020, 08:23:52 PM
Thank you. You continue to be an MUScoop non-factor. Carry on.

We meeting in Houston?  I fly in Feb 27th and leave March 1st...please advise

Quote from: Cheeks on February 09, 2020, 08:22:36 PM
I pushed no such false narrative....what you stated is wrong.

You have such a great track record of honesty here...Hoopaloop.

Go revisit Hauser transfer thread and other threads around that time. You will find plenty of posts referencing Stan saving others from transferring out after the Hausers already announced they were leaving.

And dude...I've never lived in Houston. Lived in Dallas. Which is why I've never taken you up on your offer.

Quote from: tower912 on February 09, 2020, 03:02:34 PM
Awesome.

Agreed!

Quote from: Elonsmusk on February 09, 2020, 08:26:59 PM
You have such a great track record of honesty here...Hoopaloop.

Go revisit Hauser transfer thread and other threads around that time. You will find plenty of posts referencing Stan saving others from transferring out after the Hausers already announced they were leaving.

And dude...I've never lived in Houston. Lived in Dallas. Which is why I've never taken you up on your offer.

Lol

So Scoop said it so it must be true?  That's hilarious....it's also crap to a large extent.   Even better, I am in Dallas at least five times a year.  Shooting a Mahomes spot in a few months there.  Can get together then.

Quote from: Elonsmusk on February 09, 2020, 08:26:59 PM
Go revisit Hauser transfer thread and other threads around that time. You will find plenty of posts referencing Stan saving others from transferring out after the Hausers already announced they were leaving.

Thank you for finally admitting that you have no proof to your previous claim.

You have an opinion, and that's OK. We all have them. Just don't pretend your opinions are facts, please.

Using Scoop comments as proof is pretty funny, though. If you revisit about 50 threads from back then, you will find many, many, MANY Scoopers who were certain that Sam and Joey would be going to Madison. Many of those MANY cited inside sources.

Quote from: MU82 on February 09, 2020, 10:49:44 PM
Thank you for finally admitting that you have no proof to your previous claim.

You have an opinion, and that's OK. We all have them. Just don't pretend your opinions are facts, please.

Using Scoop comments as proof is pretty funny, though. If you revisit about 50 threads from back then, you will find many, many, MANY Scoopers who were certain that Sam and Joey would be going to Madison. Many if those MANY cited inside sources.

And go to scoop threads only a few weeks ago and this team was not going to the post season, Markus was a cancer, and on and on..... Ners you crack me up.  Hell, I remember reading in Scoop how awesome John Dawson was going to be.

MU up to #17 in NET. Win Wednesday and we are talking protected seed.

Quote from: tower912 on February 09, 2020, 02:47:20 PM
If the Hausers stayed, who would have left?

Ed and possibly Sacar. If Ed leaves, Jayce still likely comes.

I am happy with the team we have, but Sam was a clear first team All conference player. I always thought we would be better this year than last, but that our ceiling wasn't as high as it would've been with them.

Quote from: brewcity77 on February 10, 2020, 03:23:38 PM
Ed and possibly Sacar. If Ed leaves, Jayce still likely comes.

I am happy with the team we have, but Sam was a clear first team All conference player. I always thought we would be better this year than last, but that our ceiling wasn't as high as it would've been with them.

We can't change history, but sure I'd love a lineup of Markus, McEwen, Sacar/Bailey, Sam and Theo, with Jayce, Bailey/Sacar, Elliott, Cain and Symir off the bench. Even Morrow as insurance, though he probably would have bolted.

Maybe Sacar grad-transfers if Sam stays but Joey goes? Maybe Cain leaves? I sure as heck don't pretend to know any of that stuff. But like you and so many other Scoopers, I'm a big Sam fan and sure wish there would have been a way to keep him even if The Pouty One had to go.

Quote from: brewcity77 on February 10, 2020, 03:23:38 PM
Ed and possibly Sacar. If Ed leaves, Jayce still likely comes.

I am happy with the team we have, but Sam was a clear first team All conference player. I always thought we would be better this year than last, but that our ceiling wasn't as high as it would've been with them.

Our floor is worse with them, too.  Defense wins when the offense can't get going, and with them at defense that was a problem.  I love Sam, one of my all time favorite players.  Shame he left, but we are playing better now than last year in a better conference than last...with a whole bunch of MU fans with egg on their face.

Quote from: MU82 on February 10, 2020, 04:17:53 PM
We can't change history, but sure I'd love a lineup of Markus, McEwen, Sacar/Bailey, Sam and Theo, with Jayce, Bailey/Sacar, Elliott, Cain and Symir off the bench. Even Morrow as insurance, though he probably would have bolted.

Maybe Sacar grad-transfers if Sam stays but Joey goes? Maybe Cain leaves? I sure as heck don't pretend to know any of that stuff. But like you and so many other Scoopers, I'm a big Sam fan and sure wish there would have been a way to keep him even if The Pouty One had to go.

Agreed. And who knows, maybe Bailey's play of late never emerges with Sam here. Maybe in a month Sacar, Koby, & BB will put it together for a few in a row and we find ourselves with a run we'll never forget. I hope so. But I can't believe we wouldn't be better with the Hausers, especially Sam.

Quote from: brewcity77 on February 10, 2020, 03:23:38 PM
Ed and possibly Sacar. If Ed leaves, Jayce still likely comes.

I am happy with the team we have, but Sam was a clear first team All conference player. I always thought we would be better this year than last, but that our ceiling wasn't as high as it would've been with them.

I thought it was rumored Bailey and Sacar were the ones that would have been gone. At this point, I don't think I'd trade Sacar and Bailey for the two Hausers. They've had really nice seasons.

Quote from: CountryRoads on February 10, 2020, 05:58:53 PM
I thought it was rumored Bailey and Sacar were the ones that would have been gone. At this point, I don't think I'd trade Sacar and Bailey for the two Hausers. They've had really nice seasons.

I never heard Bailey. Obviously different people have different sources.

Quote from: MU82 on February 10, 2020, 04:17:53 PM
We can't change history, but sure I'd love a lineup of Markus, McEwen, Sacar/Bailey, Sam and Theo, with Jayce, Bailey/Sacar, Elliott, Cain and Symir off the bench. Even Morrow as insurance, though he probably would have bolted.

Maybe Sacar grad-transfers if Sam stays but Joey goes? Maybe Cain leaves? I sure as heck don't pretend to know any of that stuff. But like you and so many other Scoopers, I'm a big Sam fan and sure wish there would have been a way to keep him even if The Pouty One had to go.

This post highlights my belief as to why Joey transferred. Your lineup doesn't list him and there is a good chance he doesn't start. We needed a Point Guard so Markus could play off ball. That shifts Sacar to the three.  I don't think we can have our best shutdown defender on the bench. This shifts Sam to the stretch four. This leaves the five spot for Joey. I don't think he starts over Jayce and Theo.

If you look at the latter stages of the season Bailey started to pick up more time and I think he gives Joey a run this year but I heard if Joey stayed then Bailey was listed as a potential transfer.

Regardless, Joey is competing with Sam for minutes. I think he saw this and other competition and mixed with his general desire to be on a bigger campus so he left.

Sam is a different story. As the senior, he was going to get his minutes but I think he was hurting and needed time to heal. He also knew that he needed to become quicker/stronger to take the next step so he transferred to give himself that break. He was able to go to a place which will highlight his skillset.

NVM

Quote from: BallBoy on February 10, 2020, 06:23:03 PM
This post highlights my belief as to why Joey transferred. Your lineup doesn't list him and there is a good chance he doesn't start. We needed a Point Guard so Markus could play off ball. That shifts Sacar to the three.  I don't think we can have our best shutdown defender on the bench. This shifts Sam to the stretch four. This leaves the five spot for Joey. I don't think he starts over Jayce and Theo.

If you look at the latter stages of the season Bailey started to pick up more time and I think he gives Joey a run this year but I heard if Joey stayed then Bailey was listed as a potential transfer.

Regardless, Joey is competing with Sam for minutes. I think he saw this and other competition and mixed with his general desire to be on a bigger campus so he left.

Sam is a different story. As the senior, he was going to get his minutes but I think he was hurting and needed time to heal. He also knew that he needed to become quicker/stronger to take the next step so he transferred to give himself that break. He was able to go to a place which will highlight his skillset.

This is an excellent analysis. 

Quote from: Sir Lawrence on February 10, 2020, 08:05:14 PM
This is an excellent analysis.

https://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=58615.msg1124412#msg1124412

Quote from: BallBoy on February 10, 2020, 06:23:03 PM
If you look at the latter stages of the season Bailey started to pick up more time and I think he gives Joey a run this year but I heard if Joey stayed then Bailey was listed as a potential transfer.

It was pretty obvious last year that while Joey was good enough to start, he often had long stretches where he looked lost on offense and defense.  By the end of the season, Bailey was being used to defend guards with his long wingspan and good lateral movement.  I always assumed that a major reason Joey left was because he saw he was competing directly with Bailey for time, and he saw Bailey growing into a preferred role.  Unfortunately he took Sam along with him. 

This conversation has turned pretty worthless but I do have an actual dumb question to hopefully derail it., mainly bc I honestly don't remember.  What exactly were the immediate recruiting/transfer ramifications when they left? Is Jayce the only transfer on the roster that came in immediately?

Jayce is the only person we brought in after they left.......Sy also reclassified.

On the topic of KenPom, he's now projecting us to go 11-7 in conference, was 10-8 prior to the Butler game.

Quote from: tower912 on February 10, 2020, 08:31:51 PM
https://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=58615.msg1124412#msg1124412

I can quote my previous posts too but I am not that insecure.

Quote from: AZMarqfan on February 10, 2020, 08:40:54 PM
It was pretty obvious last year that while Joey was good enough to start, he often had long stretches where he looked lost on offense and defense.  By the end of the season, Bailey was being used to defend guards with his long wingspan and good lateral movement.  I always assumed that a major reason Joey left was because he saw he was competing directly with Bailey for time, and he saw Bailey growing into a preferred role.  Unfortunately he took Sam along with him.

It could be true but I personally don't by the Joey took Sam thought process. If he did they land at the same school.

He has stated that neither side has to be right or wrong. He has retweeted some MU moments. I think it really was his decision to get healthy and play in a style that better showcased his strengths.

Quote from: BallBoy on February 10, 2020, 09:25:14 PM
It could be true but I personally don't by the Joey took Sam thought process. If he did they land at the same school.

He has stated that neither side has to be right or wrong. He has retweeted some MU moments. I think it really was his decision to get healthy and play in a style that better showcased his strengths.

If that's the case, couldn't he have just redshirted at Marquette, and play after Markus graduates?  Maybe Wojo wouldn't have wanted him to, but if the choice was either redshirt him or have him leave, I can't imagine Wojo would have chosen the latter.

Quote from: BallBoy on February 10, 2020, 09:12:14 PM
I can quote my previous posts too but I am not that insecure.

(https://media.giphy.com/media/qzIYGsxePPyP6/giphy.gif)

Quote from: warriorchick on February 10, 2020, 09:33:50 PM
If that's the case, couldn't he have just redshirted at Marquette, and play after Markus graduates?  Maybe Wojo wouldn't have wanted him to, but if the choice was either redshirt him or have him leave, I can't imagine Wojo would have chosen the latter.

I put it as Health, skills improvement and style of play to strengthen pro odds. Add that together and he is looking for a new home.

There are always lots of different scenarios but I think he is the type of guy that couldn't sit without being forced to do so. If you read a few articles posted about his time at Virginia, he talks about how hard it is to not play since he has never missed a game. 

I think he "rushed" back for the start of last season. He made reference to his body not being ready. I don't know if at the start of this school year he wouldn't have changed his mind about playing.

He also would have been under more pressure due to the top 2 way too early ranking. Once people start to think about things sometimes other streams open up like if I am going to sit a year what will be the best place for me to make the league.

I think he also knows he needs to develop parts of his game. Sitting a year helps him do that.

In the interview with their high school coach he makes reference to how much they liked their time at MU and it wasn't unhappiness for them leaving. If we take him as someone that knows them well then I believe they were also looking out for their future. Something got Sam thinking about it otherwise why not grind out one year and go pro.

The meat lovers of Scoop have told us that Stan is to thank for preventing all the other guys who wanted to transfer out with the Hausers to get away from the All American cancer who might win National Player of the Year.  Why can't they just tell us who those guys were that were going to transfer that needed to be re-recruited by the assistant to go against their hate for their head coach and return to Marquette?  And tell us whether those same guys are the same ones who were leaving if the Hausers stayed anyway?

F the hausers
U guys still cryin about old girlfriends
When u got the belle of the ball cravin the tube steak?

Quote from: BallBoy on February 10, 2020, 09:12:14 PM
I can quote my previous posts too but I am not that insecure.

Complimenting you for agreeing with an argument I made last April.

Quote from: TAMU Garcia on February 10, 2020, 09:06:47 PM
On the topic of KenPom, he's now projecting us to go 11-7 in conference, was 10-8 prior to the Butler game.

We have seven conference games left.  We are favored in six (better than 50% to win).  The only game we are not favored is Nova (39% to win).

KenPom has us going 4-3 the rest of the way to finish 11-7 in the conference.

Yes, I understand probabilities and expected returns.  But given the way we are playing, I would be disappointed if we went 4-3 all rest of the way out.

Quote from: Heisenberg v2.0 on February 11, 2020, 07:22:31 AM
We have seven conference games left.  We are favored in six (better than 50% to win).  The only game we are not favored is Nova (39% to win).

KenPom has us going 4-3 the rest of the way to finish 11-7 in the conference.

Yes, I understand probabilities and expected returns.  But given the way we are playing, I would be disappointed if we went 4-3 all rest of the way out.

I predicted 10-8 at the start. 11-7 would be great.

That said, I just hope we go 1-0 in our next game.

Quote from: JakeBarnes on February 11, 2020, 07:44:38 AM
I predicted 10-8 at the start. 11-7 would be great.

That said, I just hope we go 1-0 in our next game.

Yep, one step at a time, doing it another way, more chance of Tripping.  Old adage: Look the ball into your Hands