MUScoop
MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: tower912 on October 23, 2019, 02:34:24 PM
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How many wins this year, ladies and gentlemen? Exhibition game is less than a week away. Season opener less than two weeks away. I still think this team ends up with a similar regular season record to last year.
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With the expected rpi of our schedule shouldn't 21-23 be safe?
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I picked comfortably in but 21 to 23 wins should accomplish that. 18 win teams are getting in these days.
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22-10. Comfortably in. 6-7 seed.
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24 pre-NCAA's with 2 in the BET
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24-6 (13-5), Big East regular season champs.
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Brew can’t decide if your prediction is what you think the record should be because it’s Wojo’s sixth year or based on our roster and competition. I get the no excuses angle for this year but 1st place in the Big East is a tall order this year. You seem pretty realistic on a regular basis. I hope you are right.
I think bubble team this year and hope for a couple of wins in the NCAA because we catch fire at the right time.
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Brew can’t decide if your prediction is what you think the record should be because it’s Wojo’s sixth year or based on our roster and competition. I get the no excuses angle for this year but 1st place in the Big East is a tall order this year. You seem pretty realistic on a regular basis. I hope you are right.
I think bubble team this year and hope for a couple of wins in the NCAA because we catch fire at the right time.
It's largely based on my belief that our defense is really, really good. We get teams like Wisconsin & Purdue early, and if they peak, it will be late. K-State lost a ton. Our non-con is beautiful, both stronger cupcakes and winnable high majors.
In conference play, while the Big East is stronger, I don't think the top end teams are as good as most think. Seton Hall and Xavier I believe are massively overrated. Villanova is talented, but will take time to gel. I think the Cats will be dangerous come March, but it probably won't be until February that they really figure it out. Providence and Creighton are good, I just think we're a little better.
People are focusing so much on what we lost and not enough on what we brought in, in my opinion. The pieces we have fit together very well and we are still a deep team. I'm admittedly counting on McEwen, Anim, & Bailey to take offensive pressure off Markus and Jayce & Ed to adapt to adjusted roles, but the more I look at this team the more I like how it's built.
This reminds me of Bill Self's Kansas teams, or as Nukem noted, Chris Mack's best Xavier teams. An iron wall front line, a dynamic scoring machine in the backcourt, and solid two way players everywhere else. I think this is our best shot at a Final Four since either Dom's injury or Vander declared.
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Wow, I’ll take it! Thanks for the reply. Bring on the season.
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"I think this is our best shot at a Final Four since either Dom's injury or Vander declared." or...?...i just can't get myself to bring them up anymore >:( ok, carry on
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10-2 non con
14-4 con
2-1 bet
2/3-1 NCAA
Win the BE
Lose in semis of BET
Lose in round of 16 /elite 8
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It's largely based on my belief that our defense is really, really good. We get teams like Wisconsin & Purdue early, and if they peak, it will be late. K-State lost a ton. Our non-con is beautiful, both stronger cupcakes and winnable high majors.
In conference play, while the Big East is stronger, I don't think the top end teams are as good as most think. Seton Hall and Xavier I believe are massively overrated. Villanova is talented, but will take time to gel. I think the Cats will be dangerous come March, but it probably won't be until February that they really figure it out. Providence and Creighton are good, I just think we're a little better.
People are focusing so much on what we lost and not enough on what we brought in, in my opinion. The pieces we have fit together very well and we are still a deep team. I'm admittedly counting on McEwen, Anim, & Bailey to take offensive pressure off Markus and Jayce & Ed to adapt to adjusted roles, but the more I look at this team the more I like how it's built.
This reminds me of Bill Self's Kansas teams, or as Nukem noted, Chris Mack's best Xavier teams. An iron wall front line, a dynamic scoring machine in the backcourt, and solid two way players everywhere else. I think this is our best shot at a Final Four since either Dom's injury or Vander declared.
I want to badly get on board with this, and agree about being better defensively and being deep. That being said, I just don't see the talent on this team, to get it real far. I think they take a very noticeable step backwards offensively, and for whatever reason I think people VASTLY over rate guys like Jamal, Greg and Brendan. There has been a weird love affair from many on this board with those three for quite some time. Don't get me wrong, they aren't bad players by any stretch, but they also aren't guys that can carry you for stretches either. They are good role players for sure, but now instead of being role players where they best fit, they will all likely have to play key roles, and try to do more than they are capable of.
On the other side of the coin though I think people are underrating Jayce and underestimating just how much of a factor he will be. Koby and Markus for the most part are going to have to carry the offensive load most nights, and both are more than capable. Sacar will help out but he has been way too inconsistent his whole career to think this year he finally consistently puts it together offensively game in and game out.
I like their potential, but without the elite 3 point shooting they have had in previous years I think some nights offense will be very tough to come by. I think we will know A lot more about the potential of this team after Orlando. If they are somehow undefeated after that tournament, then the sky is the limit for them. It's possible they can/will be.
I hope I am 100% wrong, and Brew is 100% right.
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10-2 non con
12-6 con, with 4 consecutive losses in January just to make sure we have that oh-so-interesting "the sky is falling" period of the season.
2-1 bet
1-1 NCAA
Very curious as to who will be the #2 and #3 scorers on the team. Sacar / Kobe / Brendan / Greg. If Markus gets 25ppg, need someone at 15 and another at 10.
Can Sacar take over a game when necessary?
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I'd match exactly what WF has, but add a 2nd tourney win. Hopefully no 4-game losing streaks. 1-6 in the last 7 last year was tough enough.
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This team is going to go as far as Howard can take them. Without the Hausers, Howards amount of shots are going to go up even more. If hes hot like we have seen against K-state, Buffalo, Nova then we can be an elite 8 team with good defense. If he shoots like he did post injury then we aren't going to go far. I expect him to average at least 30 a game this year.
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This team is going to go as far as Howard can take them. Without the Hausers, Howards amount of shots are going to go up even more. If hes hot like we have seen against K-state, Buffalo, Nova then we can be an elite 8 team with good defense. If he shoots like he did post injury then we aren't going to go far. I expect him to average at least 30 a game this year.
LOL I'll have what he's having
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LOL I'll have what he's having
Really not that far fetched. Thats only 5 more than he averaged last year and will probably shoot 10 more times a game without sam and joey.
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Really not that far fetched. Thats only 5 more than he averaged last year and will probably shoot 10 more times a game without sam and joey.
You think Markus is going to take 27 shots per game? I can't say for certain, but that has to be some kind of record. His usage went up 7 percent between his Sophomore and Junior year and only increased his shots per game by 2. Following a similar pace in order for him to shoot 10 more times per game, he would need a usage north of 60.
I actually think that Markus will shoot less this year, because he'll play fewer minutes with 4 new guards that can handle the ball, and Wojo will want to manage his minutes in attempt to keep him as healthy as possible come March.
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Really not that far fetched. Thats only 5 more than he averaged last year and will probably shoot 10 more times a game without sam and joey.
If he shoots ten more times a game his average better go up by more than five!
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You think Markus is going to take 27 shots per game? I can't say for certain, but that has to be some kind of record. His usage went up 7 percent between his Sophomore and Junior year and only increased his shots per game by 2. Following a similar pace in order for him to shoot 10 more times per game, he would need a usage north of 60.
I actually think that Markus will shoot less this year, because he'll play fewer minutes with 4 new guards that can handle the ball, and Wojo will want to manage his minutes in attempt to keep him as healthy as possible come March.
Definitely this. I feel the same way. And he'll be off ball a lot more, giving more people a chance to shoot and not write letters.
I went with 21-23 but I still think comfortably in. Would love to be pleasantly surprised by end of year.
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Really not that far fetched. Thats only 5 more than he averaged last year and will probably shoot 10 more times a game without sam and joey.
Exactly two D1 players have averaged 30+ ppg in the last 20 years, and they were major volume shooters on craptastic low/mid-major teams.
I love Markus and think he will have a fantastic senior season, but I would put a whole month's pay on him averaging below 30 ppg this year and not miss a wink of sleep all season.
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You think Markus is going to take 27 shots per game? I can't say for certain, but that has to be some kind of record. His usage went up 7 percent between his Sophomore and Junior year and only increased his shots per game by 2. Following a similar pace in order for him to shoot 10 more times per game, he would need a usage north of 60.
I actually think that Markus will shoot less this year, because he'll play fewer minutes with 4 new guards that can handle the ball, and Wojo will want to manage his minutes in attempt to keep him as healthy as possible come March.
If he played more minutes, that would also lead to an increase. The most minutes guys generally tend to play is 96.5% of the available, which is 38.6 mpg. If he played that many minutes, based on last year's pace (58 shots per game) there would be 56 shots taken when he was out there, meaning he would need a %Shots of 48.2% to reach 27 shots per game. FWIW, the record is 43.4% by Jermaine Taylor for UCF.
I think 23-24 would probably be the max in terms of shots per game he could get up, but as others have noted, I think it would be very bad for the team if Markus was playing that many minutes and dominating the ball that much.
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This team is going to go as far as Howard can take them. Without the Hausers, Howards amount of shots are going to go up even more. If hes hot like we have seen against K-state, Buffalo, Nova then we can be an elite 8 team with good defense. If he shoots like he did post injury then we aren't going to go far. I expect him to average at least 30 a game this year.
I disagree. While Markus is clearly one of the best players in the country, basketball is still a team sport. It takes more than one star to win.
Having a deeper, more balanced supporting cast around him -- not just great outside shooters like the Hausers, but also players who can drive and post up, like Koby and Jayce -- could really open things up for the offense as a whole and Markus in particular. If he's getting more good looks, he could match or even increase his scoring from last season without necessarily taking more shots.
It's possible his minutes and scoring might actually decrease slightly. Say 30-32 mpg and 22-23 ppg, versus 33.5 mpg and 25.0 ppg last season. The goal: to spread the ball to improve offensive efficiency, and to keep Markus fresher during games and late in the season. I think Markus also has the potential to increase his assist rate closer to 30% and bring his turnover percentage down.
Here's one scenario for how the scoring could break down:
Markus 22 ppg
Koby 13 ppg
Sacar 10 ppg
Jayce 8 ppg
Ed 7 ppg
Brendan 6 ppg
Theo 5 ppg
Greg 3 ppg
Symir 3 ppg
Koby McEwen
In his two seasons at Utah State, Koby averaged 15 ppg. He's got a scorer's mentality and has been practicing against some of the best defenders in the country since transferring to Marquette. Here, with the defense focused on Markus, Koby won't have to carry the offense and should be able to pick his spots more. I expect his ORtg to increase significantly over 2017-18 (96.9) -- similar to Katin Reinhardt playing alongside other great shooters at MU.
Sacar Anim
Although Sacar averaged a career high 8.3 ppg last season, his points per possession actually decreased slightly. Based on what I've seen and heard from practices, the European trip and the Indiana scrimmage, he's been much more aggressive with the ball. He's always been willing to do whatever it takes to help the team win. Until now, that's meant being the team's best defender and mostly facilitating the offense. This season, Wojo needs him to play a larger role.
Jayce Johnson
Each season at Utah, Jayce steadily increased his minutes, scoring and efficiency:
2016-17 12.3 mpg 4.0 ppg 98.4 ORtg
2017-18 16.8 mpg 5.5 ppg 102.9 ORtg
2018-19 21.9 mpg 7.1 ppg 107.1 ORtg
He also decreased his turnover rate every year and set career highs last season for offensive rebounding (14.1%), defensive rebounding (27.5%), block percentage (5.6%) and two-point FG percentage (59.7%).
In his final 12 games with Utah, Jayce played his best basketball yet -- averaging 8.3 ppg, 10.3 rpg and 1.3 bpg in 26.8 mpg.
Watching him at the open practices, he's a skilled post-up player. He's able to establish, maintain and improve his position on the block going up against two of the strongest bigs in the Big East in Theo John and Ed Morrow. Don't be surprised if Jayce leads the team in double-doubles.
The rest of the lineup
This lineup assumes a 9-man rotation with the more experienced returning players getting most of the remaining minutes and shots. My theoretical team stats add up to 77 points a game, on par with last season (77.3 ppg). It's all pure guesswork, of course. But I tried to be as realistic as possible and somewhat conservative.
That's the kind of team I can envision potentially winning the Big East and making a deep run in the NCAA tournament. If Markus is averaging 30 a game, it could be another boom-or-bust season.
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I think last season was a burp caused by the Hausers who changed the chemistry of the team just when it was critical. The BE will be very strong and we will be better than last year I see a Sweet 16.
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I think last season was a burp caused by the Hausers who changed the chemistry of the team just when it was critical. The BE will be very strong and we will be better than last year I see a Sweet 16.
Markus injuring his shooting wrist didn't help either...
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There is precedent for All-American level players to see fewer minutes and/or score at essentially the same level (or even less). It depends on who the other players are around him.
Trevon Bluiett, Xavier
2016-17 35.1 mpg 18.5 ppg
2017-18 34.3 mpg 19.3 ppg
Russ Smith, Louisville
2012-13 30.3 mpg 18.7 ppg
2013-14 29.3 mpg 18.2 ppg
Sean Kilpatrick, Cincinnati
2012-13 34.4 mpg 17.0 ppg
2013-14 33.8 mpg 20.6 ppg
Tyler Hansbrough, North Carolina
2007-08 33.0 mpg 22.6 ppg
2008-09 30.3 mpg 20.7 ppg
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There is precedent for All-American level players to see fewer minutes and/or score at essentially the same level (or even less). It depends on who the other players are around him.
Trevon Bluiett, Xavier
2016-17 35.1 mpg 18.5 ppg
2017-18 34.3 mpg 19.3 ppg
Russ Smith, Louisville
2012-13 30.3 mpg 18.7 ppg
2013-14 29.3 mpg 18.2 ppg
Sean Kilpatrick, Cincinnati
2012-13 34.4 mpg 17.0 ppg
2013-14 33.8 mpg 20.6 ppg
Tyler Hansbrough, North Carolina
2007-08 33.0 mpg 22.6 ppg
2008-09 30.3 mpg 20.7 ppg
Nice comps, Marcus. I do think it's more likely we see a downtick in Markus' minutes and usage than an uptick. Maybe it's just wishful thinking, but from his comments, Wojo seemed to learn from the workload that was put on Markus at the end of last season and has indicated that he wanted to change that. I guess we won't know until the ball hits the court, but I at least think lightening his load is the plan.
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I vote 21-23 wins, but that isn't going to be a bubble team.
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Exactly two D1 players have averaged 30+ ppg in the last 20 years, and they were major volume shooters on craptastic low/mid-major teams.
I love Markus and think he will have a fantastic senior season, but I would put a whole month's pay on him averaging below 30 ppg this year and not miss a wink of sleep all season.
Whelp, good thing I didn't put any money down on that! It's obviously early but good call by HowardsWorld