MUScoop
MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: Marquetteauburn on June 02, 2019, 12:22:53 AM
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http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2019/06/mcdermott-top-offensive-player-of.html
I know these are long offseason reads most will not be interested in, but offseason is a nice time to pick up on things I've missed so here is another cracked sidewalks just posted on the link above and pasted below.
McDermott Top Offensive Player of Century; Adding Creighton & Other Greats to Game
In the basketball board game I picked the 42 teams (7 teams for 6 conferences) who made the Final 4 or finished in the top 5 of www.kenpom.com. However, when I decided to round out each conference with an 8th team based on the greatest team on a school not represented, I missed one thing that should have jumped out at me years ago in www.valueaddbasketball.
Doug McDermott is by far the best offensive college basketball player of the century.
While there are many great one and dones, I realized only two players were ever one of the best five offensive players in the country more than once (see list of the top 5 offensive players every year - including Travis Diener, Steve Novak and Jimmy Butler).
In 2005, Duke's JJ Redick was the third best offensive player in basketball, and in 2006 he improved to be the best offensive basketball. Truly amazing, and yet ...
In 2012 and 2013 in the Missouri Valley Conference McDermott was the third best offensive player in the country (keep in mind Value Add adjusts for competition, so this means it is estimated he would have ranked as the third best offensive player whether he played in the ACC, old Big East, Big Ten etc.
Only four players ranked in the top 5 overall players (Offense, defense and position adjustment); Boston College's Troy Bell in 2002 and 2003, Duke's Shelden Williams in 2004 and 2005, Davidson's Stephen Curry in 2007 and 2008 and Utah's Delon Wright in 2013 and 2014. You may assume Steph would have made the offensive list but not the overall - but actually he played in a stretch of years where the guards were so roughed up that their actual numbers were much lower than front line players - and it is actually the position adjustment that made it clear he was a top five player both years.
Adding the Teams of these Great Players to the Game
As for the game, I am adding McDermott's Creighton team to the Big East, Curry's Davidson team to the "SEC," and Wright's Utah team to the Pac-12. I did toy with adding Kawhi Leonard's San Diego State team instead of Utah since Kawhi is the greater NBA player in the headlines and both teams wee equal as No. 8 at www.kenpom.com and both losing to the eventual national champ in the Sweet 16 (UConn and Duke). However, at the college level Kawhi's best year was 11th ranked, and Wright was the only player to finish in the top two twice - so I went with him and did not he had triple doubles a few times after taking over the starting position for the Grizzlies this year.
To fill out the other conferences with a great player, I went with Reggie Evan's Iowa team from the beginning of the Century as the 8th team in the Big East, Chris Paul's Wake Forest team for the ACC and Michael Beasley's K-State team for the Big 12.
McDermott's Legacy
For the debut of the realigned Big East in 2014, McDermott was even better as the best offensive player in the country. More importantly for the Big East, he was selected as the National Player of the Year by all six major selection groups.
Marquette and the rest of the Big East owe the McDermott's a lot for that 2014 debut season - when people still weren't sure about the Big East after alignment. Obviously everyone owes Villanova for the two national titles, but having the greatest offensive player of the Century for a debut season went a long way.
Top 5 Offensive Players Each Season 2002 to 2019
Off rank Player Team Overall Rank Year
1 Henry Domercant Eastern Illinois 9 2002
2 Reece Gaines Louisville 2 2002
3 Steve Logan Cincinnati 1 2002
4 Rasual Butler La Salle 5 2002
5 Chris Davis North Texas 47 2002
1 Adam Hess William & Mary 9 2003
2 Chris Williams Ball St. 11 2003
3 Troy Bell Boston College 3 2003
4 Mike Sweetney Georgetown 1 2003
5 Brett Blizzard North Carolina Wilmington 8 2003
1 Devin Harris Wisconsin 1 2004
2 Travis Diener Marquette 7 2004
3 Luke Jackson Oregon 2 2004
4 Chris Paul Wake Forest 3 2004
5 Ryan Gomes Providence 4 2004
1 Taylor Coppenrath Vermont 8 2005
2 Andrew Bogut Utah 1 2005
3 JJ Redick Duke 6 2005
4 John Lucas Oklahoma St. 32 2005
5 Spencer Nelson Utah St. 2 2005
1 JJ Redick Duke 2 2006
2 Adam Morrison Gonzaga 6 2006
3 Brandon Roy Washington 4 2006
4 Quincy Douby Rutgers 5 2006
5 Steve Novak Marquette 17 2006
1 Kevin Durant Texas 1 2007
2 Jared Dudley Boston College 3 2007
3 Drew Neitzel Michigan St. 6 2007
4 Jaycee Carroll Utah St. 28 2007
5 Adam Haluska Iowa 8 2007
1 Tyler Hansbrough North Carolina 3 2008
2 Michael Beasley Kansas St. 1 2008
3 Maarty Leunen Oregon 6 2008
4 Kevin Love UCLA 2 2008
5 Ryan Anderson California 8 2008
1 Ty Lawson North Carolina 1 2009
2 Aaron Jackson Duquesne 37 2009
3 Jerome Randle California 16 2009
4 Blake Griffin Oklahoma 2 2009
5 DeJuan Blair Pittsburgh 3 2009
1 Jon Scheyer Duke 1 2010
2 James Anderson Oklahoma St. 10 2010
3 Jimmy Butler Marquette 5 2010
4 Kyle Singler Duke 2 2010
5 Quincy Pondexter Washington 6 2010
1 Jordan Taylor Wisconsin 1 2011
2 Kemba Walker Connecticut 2 2011
3 Charles Jenkins Hofstra 11 2011
4 Reggie Jackson Boston College 16 2011
5 Noah Dahlman Wofford 19 2011
1 Kevin Jones West Virginia 4 2012
2 Anthony Davis Kentucky 1 2012
3 Doug McDermott Creighton 17 2012
4 John Jenkins Vanderbilt 13 2012
5 Damian Lillard Weber St. 19 2012
1 Trey Burke Michigan 1 2013
2 Erick Green Virginia Tech 4 2013
3 Doug McDermott Creighton 14 2013
4 Kyle Barone Idaho 73 2013
5 Nate Wolters South Dakota St. 10 2013
1 Doug McDermott Creighton 7 2014
2 Billy Baron Canisius 6 2014
3 Bryce Cotton Providence 49 2014
4 Nik Stauskas Michigan 44 2014
5 Joseph Young Oregon 24 2014
1 Frank Kaminsky Wisconsin 3 2015
2 Jerian Grant Notre Dame 5 2015
3 Delon Wright Utah 1 2015
4 Aaron White Iowa 6 2015
5 Kevin Yogi Indiana 70 2015
1 Quinton Hooker North Dakota 5 2016
3 Buddy Hield Oklahoma 2 2016
4 Anthony Barber North Carolina St. 20 2016
5 Kay Felder Oakland 15 2016
1 Mike Daum South Dakota St. 29 2017
2 Dallas Moore North Florida 71 2017
3 Frank Mason Kansas 2 2017
4 Luke Kennard Duke 7 2017
5 Monte Morris Iowa St. 4 2017
1 Nick Masterson Kennesaw St. 191 2018
2 Trae Young Oklahoma 6 2018
3 Jeff Roberson Vanderbilt 16 2018
4 Yante Maten Georgia 3 2018
5 Jordan Howard Central Arkansas 109 2018
1 Zion Williamson Duke 1 2019
2 Cassius Winston Michigan St. 4 2019
3 CJ Massinburg Buffalo 6 2019
4 Ja Morant Murray St. 8 2019
5 Sam Merrill Utah St. 18 2019
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And yet generally, this hasn't translated to uber success on the next level. A few stars on the list, a few solid role players, a lot of wash outs.
I think this is where raw athleticism and potential come into play. Art and science.
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Nobody would confuse players like Tyler Hansbrough or Luke Harongody with Zion Williamson. But both were dominant offensive players at the college level.
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Nobody would confuse players like Tyler Hansbrough or Luke Harongody with Zion Williamson. But both were dominant offensive players at the college level.
Yes, agree with you both! When the NBA teams had me put together some forecast, I told them you take Value Add, adjust it for year played/age (e.g. freshman are terrible so if someone is a top player as a freshman and goes NBA and is within even a few points of a junior or senior then his projected "Senior Value Add" is much higher. NBA is drafting for how good they will all be eventually, not whether an 18 year old is better than a 21 year old now in college - but how good will each be when 22 and on.
Also, for NBA ability, to the Senior Value Add you add steal%, defensive rebounding % and FEWER shots taken to get a better number of NBA rating.
However, you are never going to be nearly as accurate as my friend Aran Smith - inventor and owner of nbadraft.net - you need to visually evaluate a players handle and shot, and many other factors to be NBA draft potential.