MUScoop
MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: brewcity77 on March 19, 2019, 12:10:22 PM
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The most important of the Four Factors in predicting outcomes is effective field goal percent, or eFG%. That statistic combines a player's two & three point field goal shooting into one number. The calculation is: (FGM + (0.5 x 3PFGM))/FGA. What this does is effectively adds the additional 50% of points scored for a three to a two. To show how it works, here is Markus Howard's current eFG% calculation:
Field Goals Made: 243
Three Point Field Goals Made: 116
Field Goal Attempts: 573
So the calculation is (243 + (0.5 x 116)) / 573 = 52.5 eFG%
The reason I bring this up is because two numbers on Murray State's team page on kenpom really stand out. Those numbers were 55.2 Offensive eFG% & 46.4 Defensive eFG%, both top-25 nationally. While the other three factors can influence outcomes (turnovers have significantly impacted Marquette's results) there is no single factor more important in predicting a winner than eFG%, which immediately gave me concerns about Murray State's chances of pulling off an upset.
Continued: http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2019/03/analyzing-murray-states-elite-efg.html
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Thanks, Brew. Excellent article.
I will say, though, that I don't know how these numbers translate when comparing a high-major with tough competition to a mid-major who played a lot of bunnies.
That's why I'm not totally on-board with basketball advanced analytics as opposed to baseball when a player's performance can be isolated from team factors, ballpark factors. other player's effects, etc.
Still, this is good stuff.
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Thanks, Brew. Excellent article.
I will say, though, that I don't know how these numbers translate when comparing a high-major with tough competition to a mid-major who played a lot of bunnies.
Thanks. It is tough, and that's why I tried to isolate teams based strictly on the Racers strengths. Is Alabama's 120th ranked 2PFG% defense against mostly SEC teams better than Southern Illinois' 68th ranked 2PFG% against mostly MVC teams, I don't know.
But I do know Murray State shot below 53% from 2 against both of those teams and that there was a fairly strong correlation between the statistical ranges I used.
Certainly anything can happen in a one-off tournament, but I do feel more confident after digging deeper into the numbers.
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Soooooo .. we're going to win?
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Soooooo .. we're going to win?
Auntie says no. But she hates Arby's so what the h*ll does she know?
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Auntie says no. But she hates Arby's so what the h*ll does she know?
I only trust Jens that stick to one “n”. I’ve never met a two nn-ed Jen that could properly predict a college basketball game. Their expertise is hockey.
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Line is at -3.5 now.
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against the lower ranked teams on MU's schedule:
(Carroll, UMBC, Bethune-Cookman, Presbyterian, Charleston Southern, UTEP, North Dakota, Southern)
MU opponents shot:
113/318 on twos (35.5%)
42/166 on threes (25.3%)
155/484 overall (32.0%)
eFG% of 36.3%
Realistically, how much stronger was the majority of Murray State's schedule?
Belmont is good. Jacksonville State (15-3 in the Ohio Valley) is ranked 10 spots below DePaul on kenpom. Jacksonville St knocked off Murray by 20.
Take care of business and this should be a very winnable game.