We are just hours from Selection Sunday & it seems Marquette is sandwiched squarely between the 5 & 6 lines depending on the source. With that in mind, I thought I'd take a look the teams on the 12 line that could show up in the bracket later tonight & the quick reaction I'll have if they are the matchup. I also included a couple of 11-seeds, just in case we fall.
http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2019/03/selection-sunday.html
I want no part of Oregon, that's my nightmare draw as 5/12
Palm, Lunardi and USA Today all have MU as a 6 seed this morning.
I am ok with a 6 seed. Even if 5 we would have been an underdog in the second round. The only issue is that this team if playing to potential is more like a 3 seed so it screws the true 3 seed in the event MU makes the second round. Second round should be a spread of 3 to 4 points anyways. I'll take my chances beating LSU, Houston, Purdue, or FSU.
I don't want to see Oregon or St Mary's in the first game. I also have a hard time seeing MU getting a 5 seed at this point.
Don't see us being ahead of Nova, Miss St or even Iowa St. I'd be surprised if we're a 5.
Quote from: Nukem2 on March 17, 2019, 08:03:02 AM
Palm, Lunardi and USA Today all have MU as a 6 seed this morning.
Bracketmatrix has Marquette as a 5 but it is really close. Here is what they have as of 8 am CDT:
5 Auburn (5.44 avg)
5 Marquette (5.48 avg)
5 Villanova (5.49 avg)
6 Mississippi State (5.50 avg)
So BM has a virtual tie from 18-21. It is razor thin between a 5 seed and the first 6 seed.
Quote from: Lazar's Headband on March 17, 2019, 08:14:01 AM
Bracketmatrix has Marquette as a 5 but it is really close. Here is what they have as of 8 am CDT:
5 Auburn (5.44 avg)
5 Marquette (5.48 avg)
5 Villanova (5.49 avg)
6 Mississippi State (5.50 avg)
So BM has a virtual tie from 18-21. It is razor thin between a 5 seed and the first 6 seed.
Nova is going to jump MU for sure...by winning the BE and the BET. So its MSU or MU and I think location settles it. Losing 5 of 6 won't help when subjectivity enters the equation, imo.
Quote from: GrimmReaper33 on March 17, 2019, 08:13:36 AM
I don't want to see Oregon or St Mary's in the first game. I also have a hard time seeing MU getting a 5 seed at this point.
Don't see us being ahead of Nova, Miss St or even Iowa St. I'd be surprised if we're a 5.
It will depend on how the Committee treats Championship Week. There's usually less movement this time of the year because a team's resume by now mostly is what it is. I think MU's 10 Q1 wins still carry a ton of weight. Mississippi State & Iowa State have 10, no one else behind us has more than 6.
Interesting. Palm and Lunardi have 3 of 4 the same schools in Dayton.
Arizona State
St. John's
TCU
Split on Ohio State and Temple. Both still as a 11 seed.
Whatever the seed, I suspect the talking heads and other "gurus" will have MU as an upset special?
Quote from: brewcity77 on March 17, 2019, 08:32:56 AM
It will depend on how the Committee treats Championship Week. There's usually less movement this time of the year because a team's resume by now mostly is what it is. I think MU's 10 Q1 wins still carry a ton of weight. Mississippi State & Iowa State have 10, no one else behind us has more than 6.
Brew, you do such fantastic work, I don't like to question you..but, I see Mississippi St and Iowa St with only 8 Q1 wins each..It should also be noted for argument's sake, that MU's road record was better then both of those as well.
Q1 wins
Virginia -12
MSU-12(would be 13 with a win today)
Duke-11
Kansas-11
Kentucky- 10
North Carolina-10
UW-10
MU-10
*Both Tennessee and Michigan have 9 but would go to 10 with wins today
And I know you agree with me here and this is just for reference...SJU has NO BUSINESS being in the NCAA tournament...period. I do not want them in, and hopefully they do not get in.
Quote from: muguru on March 17, 2019, 09:54:01 AM
Brew, you do such fantastic work, I don't like to question you..but, I see Mississippi St and Iowa St with only 8 Q1 wins each..It should also be noted for argument's sake, that MU's road record was better then both of those as well.
That was just me mistyping. I was staring at the Nitty Gritty report that said 8 for each of them when I wrote that. Just a mistake. 8 for both of them is correct. Especially as my point of MU's 10 Q1 wins being valuable would lose a lot of its merit if I'm citing multiple teams behind them with the same number of Q1 wins.
So I'm looking at the bubble...started the day with 18 teams for the final 7 spots.
In the 68-team era, no team has earned an at-large bid with a record less than 4 games over .500 (and that happened just twice, 19-15 Alabama in 2018 & 19-15 Vandy in 2017) which eliminates Texas, Indiana, Alabama, & Xavier from consideration. I then looked at the NET. Personally, I don't think any sub-60 NET teams get in. It was rare with RPI & the Top-16 showed they are largely sticking close to the NET rankings as they mentioned 20 teams that day, all of whom were in the top-21 of the NET at the time. That rules out Arizona State & St. John's. Incidentally, ASU & SJU also have more losses outside Q1 than any other teams I was considering. Finally, I removed Clemson. 1-10 vs Q1 just isn't good enough. I know they had close losses, but there's just not enough actual substance there.
That leaves 11 teams for 7 spots: Florida, NC State, Furman, Washington, Belmont, Lipscomb, TCU, Creighton, Ohio State, Temple, & UNC-Greensboro.
Bracket Matrix now has MU as a 6 seed.
Quote from: Nukem2 on March 17, 2019, 10:24:15 AM
Bracket Matrix now has MU as a 6 seed.
#donedeal. The question now is where? I think we can narrow it to west of the Mississippi: Salt Lake, San Jose or Tulsa.
Great stuff Brew. Assuming we're a 6 which 11 would we most/least want to face and which 3 most/least?
Quote from: Nukem2 on March 17, 2019, 10:24:15 AM
Bracket Matrix now has MU as a 6 seed.
I saw that, us and Mississippi State are virtually identical on the 5/6 line. My thought is that everyone is wrong on Auburn. They've moved ahead of us, but when the Selection Committee revealed their top-16, Auburn was the only team in the top-21 of NET not to be mentioned. That tells me the SC doesn't respect their resume as much as the metrics do. They only have 2 wins over certain at-large teams (Tennessee & MSU, both at home) & only 4 Q1 wins. I think they're a 6 at best.
Quote from: NickelDimer on March 17, 2019, 10:29:26 AM
Great stuff Brew. Assuming we're a 6 which 11 would we most/least want to face and which 3 most/least?
It's really, really tough to say because that basically encompasses everyone on the bubble. The 12s will almost certainly all be auto-bids, so it's easier to guess who ends up there.
Personally, I wouldn't want to see Belmont at all. Their offense is tough to prepare for & they can score both inside & out. They also have a NBA talent in Dylan Windler who might not get the attention of Ja Morant but is an absolute terror & matchup nightmare.
I wouldn't mind seeing Ohio State or Temple. The Buckeyes haven't played very well all year long & while Holtmann's a good coach, I think he's a year or two away. Temple has the big win over Houston, but that's their only top-40 win per Pomeroy all season long. They would get some points in transition & do have length in the backcourt, but there's nothing they do particularly well that unnerves me.
Even as a 6, we can get where we want to go -- the Final Four.
With apologies to wades for the look-ahead ...
I know that if we were still a 3-seed, we wouldn't be thrilled having to play a second-round game against a talented, balanced, 3-point shooting, good defensive team -- not to mention a team that played very well most of the year before slumping late but was obviously good enough to win all 5 of those late-season games they lost.
Yes, to get where we want to go, we'd likely have to beat a 1 anyway. But I would prefer playing the 2/3 in the S16 round rather than the other way around.
Our route could be similar to 2003 ... except rather than being a 3 playing a 6 in the second round, we'll be a 6 playing a 3.
Regardless of what happens, I'm psyched. And I vow not to complain about the seed (unless it's an 8 or something), because we had plenty of chances to significantly help our seeding.
I can't believe I am going to write this because I am a stats guy, but I don't get the Purdue love and haven't all season. I am glad to see they have dropped to a 4 at least but they don't pass the eye test for me to be that high. Their B1G schedule was very favorable. Yeah, they beat MSU and Bucky but their resume is qualitatively weaker than others. I think the BE regular and tournament champion (and defending national champion) deserves their slot, for instance.
Quote from: Ellenson Family Reunion on March 17, 2019, 08:02:26 AM
I want no part of Oregon, that's my nightmare draw as 5/12
Oregon is hot right now, but they're very similar to us. Led by a diminutive point guard. Depth, but no outstanding players. I'd be worried more if they still had Bol Bol, but I don't hate an Oregon matchup.
I'd REALLY like to draw Ohio State.
Quote from: brewcity77 on March 17, 2019, 10:36:42 AM
It's really, really tough to say because that basically encompasses everyone on the bubble. The 12s will almost certainly all be auto-bids, so it's easier to guess who ends up there.
Personally, I wouldn't want to see Belmont at all. Their offense is tough to prepare for & they can score both inside & out. They also have a NBA talent in Dylan Windler who might not get the attention of Ja Morant but is an absolute terror & matchup nightmare.
I wouldn't mind seeing Ohio State or Temple. The Buckeyes haven't played very well all year long & while Holtmann's a good coach, I think he's a year or two away. Temple has the big win over Houston, but that's their only top-40 win per Pomeroy all season long. They would get some points in transition & do have length in the backcourt, but there's nothing they do particularly well that unnerves me.
This is all spot on Brew...Temple doesn't scare me. I mean Shizz Alston is a lot like Markus, in that if he gets rolling he's hard to stop..but they have no inside game to speak of and are lead by their Guards in Alston, Rose, and Nate Pierre-Louis. They do nothing spectacular..Ohio State as well. Same with TCU if it happens to be them...not a lot of depth, their starters play a TON of minugtes and their bigs are foul prone.
Quote from: Ellenson Family Reunion on March 17, 2019, 08:02:26 AM
I want no part of Oregon, that's my nightmare draw as 5/12
That's who Palm has us facing in a 6/11 matchup. Pretty much my last choice.
Quote from: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on March 17, 2019, 11:40:04 AM
That's who Palm has us facing in a 6/11 matchup. Pretty much my last choice.
Agree, catching Florida as an 11 if we're a 6 would be lights out for us too, I'd actually hate that more
Quote from: Ellenson Family Reunion on March 17, 2019, 11:53:33 AM
Agree, catching Florida as an 11 if we're a 6 would be lights out for us too, I'd actually hate that more
Yah, I suppose Florida is fairly close to the 10/11 cutoff, but man, after this week, Florida should be at worst a 10 IMO.
Oregon hasn't played a top 40 team since before Chirstmas, give me them all day.
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on March 17, 2019, 12:07:28 PM
Oregon hasn't played a top 40 team since before Chirstmas, give me them all day.
Agreed on the competition level but one of the things that has helped me a lot in picking bracket upsets the past few years is looking at large jumps in kenpom #'s
They were 67 less than a month ago and are now 43... with a lot of blowouts mixed in. Takes a lot of quality play to move that much in 8 games. In terms of the possible 12 seeds if we get a 5, they're by far my least favorite option.
Quote from: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on March 17, 2019, 11:56:41 AM
Yah, I suppose Florida is fairly close to the 10/11 cutoff, but man, after this week, Florida should be at worst a 10 IMO.
Agree, but who knows how things have to be shuffled to avoid the higher seeded SEC teams due to bracket rules. Moving down a seed to accommodate is hardly out of the question. According to Murphy's law, this is exactly how it will play out!
Quote from: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on March 17, 2019, 11:40:04 AM
That's who Palm has us facing in a 6/11 matchup. Pretty much my last choice.
Since Jerry is 99% accurate per his lunch mate, I went ahead and booked my non-refundable travel arrangements to Hartford.
I'm not 100% convinced Washington is(or should be) in. They have...count 'em...1 win over a team in the field and that was against Oregon who they just lost to last night, and had Oregon not won, they would have 0 wins over teams in the field. Not a good look.
Quote from: Nukem2 on March 17, 2019, 09:15:36 AM
Whatever the seed, I suspect the talking heads and other "gurus" will have MU as an upset special?
It wouldn't be March without MU being listed as an upset special....
I for one hope they put Yale in Hartford to hose some team (hope it's not MU).
Quote from: SaveOD238 on March 17, 2019, 11:20:10 AM
Oregon is hot right now, but they're very similar to us. Led by a diminutive point guard. Depth, but no outstanding players. I'd be worried more if they still had Bol Bol, but I don't hate an Oregon matchup.
I'd REALLY like to draw Ohio State.
Hot, yes. But hot in the weakest P6 conference in the land. They haven't played a really good team since - what - December?
Obviously we've had a bad run lately but I don't think teams on the 11 line are going to be too excited to play us. We are still a dangerous team.
Quote from: RushmoreAcademy on March 17, 2019, 01:23:48 PM
Obviously we've had a bad run lately but I don't think teams on the 11 line are going to be too excited to play us. We are still a dangerous team.
Yep. All it'd take is for Markus to find his form and remember to include his teammates, and we could win by 20+.
Quote from: GooooMarquette on March 17, 2019, 01:26:31 PM
Yep. All it'd take is for Markus to find his form and remember to include his teammates, and we could win by 20+.
Agree with both of you. I think that drubbing of St Johns was really big for this team's psyche and they know the SH game was stolen from them. So not only does it not affect their confidence but it fuels the fire. I really think these guys are a special group and I hope they're rewarded with a run
Quote from: muguru on March 17, 2019, 01:07:23 PM
I'm not 100% convinced Washington is(or should be) in. They have...count 'em...1 win over a team in the field and that was against Oregon who they just lost to last night, and had Oregon not won, they would have 0 wins over teams in the field. Not a good look.
I just went through their resume. They don't have wins over teams in the field, but that's largely because the rest of their league didn't deliver. They only played 4 games against teams that were at-large worthy. I'm not certain they're in, but I think they will make it by the skin of their teeth. If not, I think the 1-bid Pac 12 is a thing.
This should be my final update to the Curve, with thoughts on the final teams and who made it in or was left out on the bubble. If work allows I'll add a little more on the last 3 teams in:
http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2019/03/selection-sunday-afternoon.html?m=1
Quote from: SaveOD238 on March 17, 2019, 11:20:10 AM
Oregon is hot right now, but they're very similar to us. Led by a diminutive point guard. Depth, but no outstanding players.
We have the BEPOY, who also happens to be one of the top scorers in the country. What does it take to qualify as "outstanding"?
Quote from: RushmoreAcademy on March 17, 2019, 01:23:48 PM
Obviously we've had a bad run lately but I don't think teams on the 11 line are going to be too excited to play us. We are still a dangerous team.
Agree.
Quote from: NickelDimer on March 17, 2019, 01:30:23 PM
I think that drubbing of St Johns was really big for this team's psyche and they know the SH game was stolen from them. So not only does it not affect their confidence but it fuels the fire. I really think these guys are a special group and I hope they're rewarded with a run
Agree wholeheartedly.
We are Marquette!
Quote from: Dr. Blackheart on March 17, 2019, 12:38:29 PM
Since Jerry is 99% accurate per his lunch mate, I went ahead and booked my non-refundable travel arrangements to Hartford.
Jerry got 67 of 68 correct teams in. He missed TCU instead of Belmont. Lunardi the same. Only two guys at Bracketmatrix nailed all 68 teams this year.
Rumor has it he will continue to receive a large check from CBS next year and will be able to buy lunch. Glad you made that non-refundable arrangement to Hartford, because that is where MU is playing.
Howie Schwab on FOX got 67 of 68. He missed his school in St. John's. Had 3 of 4 correct in Dayton.