With Marquette's four-game losing skid that took them from the verge of an outright Big East title & a great shot at a 2-seed in the NCAA Tournament to a 2-seed in the Big East Tournament & a resume that has dropped them to a NCAA 5-seed, MU fans are likely wondering how much worse it can get.
Continued: http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2019/03/marquettes-seeding-yo-yo.html
Imagine being on the other side of that. That team will be playing a school that only two weeks ago was close to a 2 seed. They won't be happy either. MU has hit rough spot, but could have won any or all of these four games.
Iowa has lost four in a row, and mostly been manhandled in all of them.
muguru asked if I thought there was any way Marquette could get back to the 3-line. Here's my thoughts at the perfect spiral it would take:
- Marquette Wins Big East Tourney: The path would almost have to be St. John's, Georgetown, & Villanova or maybe Creighton.
- At least one of Purdue, Houston, Texas Tech lose early: Forget LSU, they have enough heft to stay on the 3-line even with a loss. But the other three are vulnerable, especially if they take a Q2 or 3 loss. MU has better top level wins than Houston or Purdue & a better Q1 resume than Texas Tech.
- K-State, Wisconsin, Florida State, Kansas win no more than 1 games each: Our resume is comparable to these teams. If we add 3 wins and they do no better than 1-1, we should safely move ahead of any of them.
- Va Tech doesn't win the ACC: They are the only team that could get hot and steal a 3-seed ahead of us. Maryland in theory could get that hot, but because the Big 10 plays their championship on Selection Sunday, I don't think a B10T win would play much into the Terps' seeding.
- BONUS: Buffalo wins MAC: This is another potential Q1A win if they can move up to 15th in the NET (currently 16).
- BONUS: Indiana gets to B10T Final: Quite a few teams ahead of us have most of their losses in Q1A (Wisconsin, Va Tech, FSU, Kansas). If IU can move up to 40 in the NET by beating Ohio State, Michigan State, & Wisconsin that lessens the damage that loss does.
- BONUS: Big East Scoreboard Watching: If we play Georgetown & Villanova after blowout wins, there's a good chance GT would be top-75 and Villanova top-25 in NET (which would move a Q2 win to Q1, a Q3 loss to Q2, & give us another shot at a Q1A win) even after we beat them. Don't just root for GT/Nova wins, root for blowouts.
We probably have to move past at least 6 teams without anyone catching us from behind. It's incredibly unlikely, but not quite impossible. I'm not hoping for it, though. I think the 4-seed is the most realistic optimistic hope at this point.
Thanks for the data brewcity, excellent stuff as always.
For the more realistic options- 5 seed versus a 4 seed- I'm of the opinion that a 4 seed would be a very large upgrade over the 5 with regards to difficulty of opponent. I've heard a lot of people argue that at that point it doesn't matter, 4 or 5 are interchangeable because they face each other and then the 1 if they advance...
Most of those people don't pay as much attention as I do, and I don't pay as much attention as you do. I'm curious because you have a much bigger understanding of the quality of team on each seedline, what's your thought here?
My take is that getting the 4 seed would likely make for a much easier first game compared to the 5 seed. A few weeks ago (and I'm really trying to get away from that phrase because we are in a new unit of time and a new reality) I didn't really care about MUs first game. Now I think it really matters because we will be drawing a much better team, and it looks like the teams on the 13 line are softer than the 12 line.
I get it when some people argue "well if you can't beat a 12 or 13 you don't belong" but the dance doesn't work that way. I've seen teams like ODU, Liberty, Vermont, Hofstra etc on the 13 line- in other words some of the stronger auto bids but typically weaker than at larges- and many of the last at larges on the 12 line. My guess would be that Marquette would be a substantially bigger favorite versus one of those 13s than one of the 12s, making getting a 4 seed over a 5 more important than most would expect.
Then assuming you can advance you've got a decent chance at getting one of those 12s or a slightly weaker 5 to get to the sweet 16. Then bring on unc or Kentucky!!
I just happy we will be in the NCAA tournament. Not very optimistic due to our poor play as of late.
While Lunardi's second round matchup would be a bad one for MU against Florida State, I would absolutely love to play the winner of Ohio State and NC State in the 1st round. Two teams that definitely deserve to be in the NIT. Other teams that could be in that mix that TCU, Belmont, Lipscomb, Alabama, etc., don't strike fear in me either.
Quote from: DoctorV on March 11, 2019, 03:18:04 PM
Thanks for the data brewcity, excellent stuff as always.
For the more realistic options- 5 seed versus a 4 seed- I'm of the opinion that a 4 seed would be a very large upgrade over the 5 with regards to difficulty of opponent. I've heard a lot of people argue that at that point it doesn't matter, 4 or 5 are interchangeable because they face each other and then the 1 if they advance...
If history is any indication, it's a big deal. 4 seeds win their first round games 79% of the time, while 5 seeds win 65% of the time. I know every game is unique, but I'd take a 14% better chance to win any day....
Quote from: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on March 11, 2019, 03:31:40 PM
While Lunardi's second round matchup would be a bad one for MU against Florida State, I would absolutely love to play the winner of Ohio State and NC State in the 1st round. Two teams that definitely deserve to be in the NIT. Other teams that could be in that mix that TCU, Belmont, Lipscomb, Alabama, etc., don't strike fear in me either.
I know their length could give us trouble, but for some reason I feel like Florida State would bea good matchup for us. They are super prone to offensive droughts, which means they really don't pull away.
Quote from: GooooMarquette on March 11, 2019, 04:21:02 PM
If history is any indication, it's a big deal. 4 seeds win their first round games 79% of the time, while 5 seeds win 65% of the time. I know every game is unique, but I'd take a 14% better chance to win any day....
I think there's a pretty wide gap between the 12/13 lines. 12-seeds will generally be your last at large teams. High majors that are used to the level of competition or the very best of the autobids from one bid leagues (typically). The 13-seeds are definitely all from one bid leagues traditionally and the teams that are just not quite good enough to have any real upsets on their resume.
The other thing about the 13-line is when you have conference tourney upsets (Bradley, Gardner Webb, etc) that usually pushes teams that would be 15s to the 14 line and 14s to the 13. If it's a chaotic conference tournament week, there's a lot more benefit to being a 3/4 because you'll get teams that should've been seeded lower while the quality on the 12-line doesn't change much.
Sounds like it would be a really good idea to make the BE tournament finals, which I hope would put MU on the 4 line