Joey has not been playing the way we all know he can play. During the game you could see Joey was frustrated with himself and during a play late in the game Markus got in Joey's face telling him not to be so down on himself and if I could read lips Markus was just telling him to stay focused. That is something Wojo's teams have been missing...upper classman leadership.
U dont think juhuan johnson or luke fisher were leaders?
Quote from: Mr. Sand-Knit on February 13, 2019, 01:46:53 PM
U dont think juhuan johnson or luke fisher were leaders?
Hard to trust leaders that don't take you to the NCAA tourney.
i was just going to ask this question in a different thread-
was it encouraging joey or was it that joey almost took his frustration out on another player? i am not insinuating in any way. as markus got very demonstrative with joey, i was trying to do a mental replay of what had just happened previously. i guess i could have used the dvr function, but...i didn't.
if that was what markus was doing...that's really cool!! leader of the pack eyn'a?
Before they cut to commercial, the last thing Markus was saying is, "You're fine!" He was encouraging him, without a doubt. Markus continues to impress in all ways.
I did go back to watch the exchange again. what i was able to read was "Hey, Listen to me, You're fine" as markus was grabbing joey's jersey. That's some serious leadership.
any one know where we can get a clip of this? the full game isn't on YouTube yet.
Joey had just gotten fouled while missing a shot. I could read Markus' lips saying "Don't do that! Don't do that! You're fine." Joey had some body language showing that he was getting really frustrated and Markus clearly didn't want to see that. Joey followed up by making both free throws.
Quote from: 21rooster on February 13, 2019, 03:00:12 PM
Before they cut to commercial, the last thing Markus was saying is, "You're fine!" He was encouraging him, without a doubt. Markus continues to impress in all ways.
+1000
Just an amazing kid. I have no idea what his future holds, but if the circumstances are right, I would LOVE to have him back with the program down the road. Maybe coaching, strength & conditioning, or whatever. Maybe even BOT someday like Ulice or Doc. The sky is the limit for Markus.
Quote from: GooooMarquette on February 13, 2019, 04:28:19 PM
+1000
Just an amazing kid. I have no idea what his future holds, but if the circumstances are right, I would LOVE to have him back with the program down the road. Maybe coaching, strength & conditioning, or whatever. Maybe even BOT someday like Ulice or Doc. The sky is the limit for Markus.
I agree. Markus continues to grow as an impressive leader. He will be successful in life. Joey is a tremendous player who has hit a freshman slump. Hopefully, Markus and Sam can pull him out of it soon.
Quote from: goldeneagle91114 on February 13, 2019, 01:51:25 PM
Hard to trust leaders that don't take you to the NCAA tourney.
Well, we did go to the NCAA tournament their senior year...
Quote from: BrewCity83 on February 13, 2019, 04:26:17 PM
Joey had just gotten fouled while missing a shot. I could read Markus' lips saying "Don't do that! Don't do that! You're fine." Joey had some body language showing that he was getting really frustrated and Markus clearly didn't want to see that. Joey followed up by making both free throws.
#FakeNews #Lies
Don't have to make up stories, bruh! (Especially about a FT being made or not made -- #FTsNoMatta)
Joey missed the first, made the second.
Replay is on Fox
Quote from: Jay Bee on February 13, 2019, 05:58:04 PM
#FakeNews #Lies
Don't have to make up stories, bruh! (Especially about a FT being made or not made -- #FTsNoMatta)
Joey missed the first, made the second.
Totally bruh, points are like, totally no biggie. Efficiency is all that matters bruh. Bruh. Get with it bruh. Why would you care about converting uncontested points bruh.
Quote from: buckchuckler on February 13, 2019, 06:58:55 PM
Totally bruh, points are like, totally no biggie. Efficiency is all that matters bruh. Bruh. Get with it bruh. Why would you care about converting uncontested points bruh.
There are lots of 'uncontested' points to be had. If FT's were 'free' and it was not true that #FTsNoMatta, history would show the average is always around 70%.
(btw, efficiency is based on points... the thing is, even a team with a bad FT% is extremely offensively efficient when it comes to shooting free throws. There isn't such a thing as 'an inefficient free throw shooting team'. There is one team shooting less than 59% this season out of 353 teams.. even their 56.7% results in very efficient offense)
Quote from: Jay Bee on February 13, 2019, 07:08:14 PM
There are lots of 'uncontested' points to be had. If FT's were 'free' and it was not true that #FTsNoMatta, history would show the average is always around 70%.
(btw, efficiency is based on points... the thing is, even a team with a bad FT% is extremely offensively efficient when it comes to shooting free throws. There isn't such a thing as 'an inefficient free throw shooting team'. There is one team shooting less than 59% this season out of 353 teams.. even their 56.7% results in very efficient offense)
Bruh, you know I can't understand you when you don't bruh enough. Bruh.
But Bruh, Creighton has lost 2 huge games in OT. I wonder if they would share your sentiment bruh, you know, as a still efficient, but worst FT shooting team in the conference.
Quote from: buckchuckler on February 13, 2019, 06:58:55 PM
Totally bruh, points are like, totally no biggie. Efficiency is all that matters bruh. Bruh. Get with it bruh. Why would you care about converting uncontested points bruh.
This guy gets it.
Quote from: buckchuckler on February 13, 2019, 08:23:06 PM
Bruh, you know I can't understand you when you don't bruh enough. Bruh.
But Bruh, Creighton has lost 2 huge games in OT. I wonder if they would share your sentiment bruh, you know, as a still efficient, but worst FT shooting team in the conference.
What just happened here?
Quote from: fjm on February 13, 2019, 09:59:00 PM
This guy gets it.
Nope. Jay Bee can be an arse about it, but on this point he is right. Team FT% matters very little in winning a basketball game. It's obviously better to shoot a better FT% than not, but it is a stat that gets a disproportionate amount of attention by fans. eFG%, OR%, TO%, and FTR. These are the stats that can truly impact a game.
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on February 13, 2019, 11:02:28 PM
Nope. Jay Bee can be an arse about it, but on this point he is right. Team FT% matters very little in winning a basketball game. It's obviously better to shoot a better FT% than not, but it is a stat that gets a disproportionate amount of attention by fans. eFG%, OR%, TO%, and FTR. These are the stats that can truly impact a game.
Does it, though? I
rarely ever hear anyone discuss a
team's free throw percentage. With very rare exception, the only time free throw shooting is brought up is when it costs a team an individual game, in which case the free throw shooting very, very much mattered. I hardly ever hear people discussing free throw percentage when talking about who could win a national title, who the favorite to win a certain conference are, when breaking down a matchup, etc.
So in reality, the only people really bringing up team season long free throw shooting percentages are those that cry about free throws not mattering...
Quote from: wadesworld on February 13, 2019, 11:20:28 PM
Does it, though? I rarely ever hear anyone discuss a team's free throw percentage. With very rare exception, the only time free throw shooting is brought up is when it costs a team an individual game, in which case the free throw shooting very, very much mattered. I hardly ever hear people discussing free throw percentage when talking about who could win a national title, who the favorite to win a certain conference are, when breaking down a matchup, etc.
So in reality, the only people really bringing up team season long free throw shooting percentages are those that cry about free throws not mattering...
I'm way more interested in FT defense.
During the timeout, 3 or 4 players were around Joey encouraging him. Wojo pushed everyone away, and spent about 10 seconds talking to Joey as Joey was just nodding yes to everything that was said. Both Nelson and Johnson were in his ear again leading out of the timeout. This team seems to be in great hands.
Quote from: JakeBarnes on February 13, 2019, 11:39:34 PM
I'm way more interested in FT defense.
Way to SHAKE up this conversation!
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on February 13, 2019, 11:02:28 PM
Nope. Jay Bee can be an arse about it, but on this point he is right. Team FT% matters very little in winning a basketball game. It's obviously better to shoot a better FT% than not, but it is a stat that gets a disproportionate amount of attention by fans. eFG%, OR%, TO%, and FTR. These are the stats that can truly impact a game.
The stats impact the game...or the game
creates the stats, which leads to the perception that the stats are impacting the game?
Quote from: Wojo Era on February 13, 2019, 11:43:59 PM
During the timeout, 3 or 4 players were around Joey encouraging him. Wojo pushed everyone away, and spent about 10 seconds talking to Joey as Joey was just nodding yes to everything that was said. Both Nelson and Johnson were in his ear again leading out of the timeout. This team seems to be in great hands.
Wojo and his teammates will make Joey a great player. He's not there yet and for the first time in his life he's far from the best player on the court and the frustration set in. The next stage in his development will come this summer where he's going to be made to work his arse off. But I hope for his sake he can get a little hot now. Be nice for him to get some swagger going into the Tourney.
Quote from: Wojo Era on February 13, 2019, 11:43:59 PM
During the timeout, 3 or 4 players were around Joey encouraging him. Wojo pushed everyone away, and spent about 10 seconds talking to Joey as Joey was just nodding yes to everything that was said. Both Nelson and Johnson were in his ear again leading out of the timeout. This team seems to be in great hands.
Mind games
Quote from: wadesworld on February 13, 2019, 11:20:28 PM
Does it, though? I rarely ever hear anyone discuss a team's free throw percentage. With very rare exception, the only time free throw shooting is brought up is when it costs a team an individual game, in which case the free throw shooting very, very much mattered. I hardly ever hear people discussing free throw percentage when talking about who could win a national title, who the favorite to win a certain conference are, when breaking down a matchup, etc.
So in reality, the only people really bringing up team season long free throw shooting percentages are those that cry about free throws not mattering...
You just made my point for me. FTs almost never cost a team the game, fans just think they do. Shooting an improved FT% in a game likely means 1 or 2 extra points. There are extreme situations where it is more, but not in most games. Shooting a better eFG%, or preventing your opponent from shooting a better eFG% are going to result in a lot more extra points, same with OR%, TO%, and FTR. We just focus on the free throws because we think they should be automatic.
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on February 14, 2019, 07:27:06 AM
You just made my point for me. FTs almost never cost a team the game, fans just think they do. Shooting an improved FT% in a game likely means 1 or 2 extra points. There are extreme situations where it is more, but not in most games. Shooting a better eFG%, or preventing your opponent from shooting a better eFG% are going to result in a lot more extra points, same with OR%, TO%, and FTR. We just focus on the free throws because we think they should be automatic.
I think Memphis lost a National Championship to Kansas because they couldn't ice the game with free throws.
Day 2 of a week-long break and we're already on #FTsNoMatta.... I'm out. See you all on Wednesday.
I feel like we have had at least 3 close games this season we won that could have turned out as losses if we were a poorer free throw shooting team.
I really love having Sam, Joey, and Markus at crunch time getting fouled and going to the line. You can disagree but I believe FTs do matta!
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on February 14, 2019, 07:27:06 AM
You just made my point for me. FTs almost never cost a team the game, fans just think they do. Shooting an improved FT% in a game likely means 1 or 2 extra points. There are extreme situations where it is more, but not in most games. Shooting a better eFG%, or preventing your opponent from shooting a better eFG% are going to result in a lot more extra points, same with OR%, TO%, and FTR. We just focus on the free throws because we think they should be automatic.
But every time people say "#freethrowsmatta" when a team loses a game by 3 following a 5-16 performance from the free throw line, the "#freethrowsnomatta" crowd comes crying and screaming about "that's not what #freethrowsnomatta." So now we're changing the definition of "#freethrowsnomatta."
There's a reason that the highest team field goal percentage in the country is 52.8% while the lowest team free throw percentage in the country is 56.7%. Only 6 teams shoot under 62% from the free throw line while only 5 teams shoot over 50% on overall field goals. One shot is significantly easier to make, so when you shoot 5-16 from the line in a game you lost by 3, sure you could've hit 2 of the 3 pointers you missed and won the game, but that's much harder to do than to go 9-16 from the line instead of 5-16 from the line. Free throws can
absolutely cost a team an individual game and that's the only time, other than when people cry that team season free throw percentage doesn't matter, anyone really brings up free throw percentage. Again, nobody talks about a team's season free throw percentage when discussing an upcoming matchup, when discussing why a team should be good (or bad) in a season preview, when projecting standings in a conference or NCAA Tournament results, etc. So the only people who obsess over that stat are the ones crying for free throws not mattering.
Quote from: MU03Grad on February 14, 2019, 07:53:03 AM
I think Memphis lost a National Championship to Kansas because they couldn't ice the game with free throws.
No, they lost that game because they shot a putrid 45.2 eFG% while Kansas shot a respectable 55.5 eFG%. Only reason Memphis had a chance to miss those FTs was because they beat Kansas on the offensive glass, in the turnover battle, and in getting to the line more often.
Quote from: JakeBarnes on February 13, 2019, 11:39:34 PM
I'm way more interested in FT defense.
Of which, I must say, our opponents are doing a terrible job.
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on February 14, 2019, 08:23:12 AM
No, they lost that game because they shot a putrid 45.2 eFG% while Kansas shot a respectable 55.5 eFG%. Only reason Memphis had a chance to miss those FTs was because they beat Kansas on the offensive glass, in the turnover battle, and in getting to the line more often.
So if Memphis had hit their FTs at the end, they
still wouldn't have won?
remember the old adage that statistics mean nothing to the individual. I feel like no matter what the anti free throw crowd can fall back on this.
Quote from: GooooMarquette on February 14, 2019, 08:27:01 AM
So if Memphis had hit their FTs at the end, they still wouldn't have won?
Correct. Anyone who says that a ref can't cost a team a game is kidding themselves. If after 39 minutes and 59 seconds one team had a lead and the refs made a bad call to give their opponent the win, a ref absolutely cost a team the game.
Say, for example, there's proof somewhere out there that the ball was still in Sam's hand when the buzzer went off at Creighton. Then the refs absolutely cost Creighton the game. Sure, theoretically Creighton could've gotten a stop every single time down the court on defense and gotten a 4 point play every single time down the court offensively and won like 300-0 and then the refs made that one mistake to make the final score 300-3 and it wouldn't have mattered. But the reality is IF (this is just an example) Sam still had the ball in his hand when the buzzer went off and the refs missed it, the refs cost them the game. It would've/should've been game over, Creighton wins by 3. Instead Marquette won in overtime.
Refs can cost teams the game. Missed free throws can cost teams the game.
Quote from: wadesworld on February 14, 2019, 08:18:26 AM
But every time people say "#freethrowsmatta" when a team loses a game by 3 following a 5-16 performance from the free throw line, the "#freethrowsnomatta" crowd comes crying and screaming about "that's not what #freethrowsnomatta." So now we're changing the definition of "#freethrowsnomatta."
There's a reason that the highest team field goal percentage in the country is 52.8% while the lowest team free throw percentage in the country is 56.7%. Only 6 teams shoot under 62% from the free throw line while only 5 teams shoot over 50% on overall field goals. One shot is significantly easier to make, so when you shoot 5-16 from the line in a game you lost by 3, sure you could've hit 2 of the 3 pointers you missed and won the game, but that's much harder to do than to go 9-16 from the line instead of 5-16 from the line. Free throws can absolutely cost a team an individual game and that's the only time, other than when people cry that team season free throw percentage doesn't matter, anyone really brings up free throw percentage. Again, nobody talks about a team's season free throw percentage when discussing an upcoming matchup, when discussing why a team should be good (or bad) in a season preview, when projecting standings in a conference or NCAA Tournament results, etc. So the only people who obsess over that stat are the ones crying for free throws not mattering.
The definition of #FTNoMatta has never changed. It is short for #TeamFT%MattasVeryLittleWhenDeterminingWhoWinsaBasketballGame.
Quote from: GooooMarquette on February 14, 2019, 08:27:01 AM
So if Memphis had hit their FTs at the end, they still wouldn't have won?
No and no one said that.
Quote from: wadesworld on February 14, 2019, 08:33:34 AM
Correct. Anyone who says that a ref can't cost a team a game is kidding themselves. If after 39 minutes and 59 seconds one team had a lead and the refs made a bad call to give their opponent the win, a ref absolutely cost a team the game.
Say, for example, there's proof somewhere out there that the ball was still in Sam's hand when the buzzer went off at Creighton. Then the refs absolutely cost Creighton the game. Sure, theoretically Creighton could've gotten a stop every single time down the court on defense and gotten a 4 point play every single time down the court offensively and won like 300-0 and then the refs made that one mistake to make the final score 300-3 and it wouldn't have mattered. But the reality is IF (this is just an example) Sam still had the ball in his hand when the buzzer went off and the refs missed it, the refs cost them the game. It would've/should've been game over, Creighton wins by 3. Instead Marquette won in overtime.
Refs can cost teams the game. Missed free throws can cost teams the game.
Why is your example 300-0? All Creighton had to do was make one more shot or stop us from making one more shot to avoid the ref "costing them the game."
If your definition of "cost us the game" is any negative thing that happened during a game, no matter how important, than yes everything can cost you the game. You may want to focus on the 7th or 8th most significant thing that cost a team the game, I will focus my energy on the most significant ones.
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on February 14, 2019, 08:40:44 AM
No and no one said that.
Why is your example 300-0? All Creighton had to do was make one more shot or stop us from making one more shot to avoid the ref "costing them the game."
If your definition of "cost us the game" is any negative thing that happened during a game, no matter how important, than yes everything can cost you the game. You may want to focus on the 7th or 8th most significant thing that cost a team the game, I will focus my energy on the most significant ones.
I couldn't care less where you're focusing your energy. It takes me no energy whatsoever to realize that if the final call of a game is incorrect and it changed the outcome of a game (like Sam's 3 for Creighton if the ball was still in his hands) then the refs changed the outcome of the game, and it's really not even a debate. What
actually happened should've resulted in a Creighton win in that situation but did not, vs. what
could have happened. One is theoretical, the other is reality.
Quote from: wadesworld on February 14, 2019, 08:54:14 AM
I couldn't care less where you're focusing your energy. It takes me no energy whatsoever to realize that if the final call of a game is incorrect and it changed the outcome of a game (like Sam's 3 for Creighton if the ball was still in his hands) then the refs changed the outcome of the game, and it's really not even a debate. What actually happened should've resulted in a Creighton win in that situation but did not, vs. what could have happened. One is theoretical, the other is reality.
Did Louisville's three being counted as a two cost them the game or no?
Quote from: Galway Eagle on February 14, 2019, 08:56:05 AM
Did Louisville's three being counted as a two cost them the game or no?
Nope. There would've been plenty of time for both teams to play differently down the stretch if the score was different from whatever period of time the incorrect call was made.
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on February 14, 2019, 08:40:44 AM
No and no one said that.
Ummmm...you said that.
MU03Grad said: "I think Memphis lost a National Championship to Kansas because they couldn't ice the game with free throws."
Your response began with "No," clearly implying that the missed free throws played no role in causing the loss.
Play semantic games after the "no" all you want, but that says you don't believe the missed free throws cost them a NC.
Here's the reality: Statistics do not DETERMINE anything; the play on the court determines the outcome of every game. Statistics are just a shorthand way of SUMMARIZING what happened after the fact.
Quote from: jsglow on February 14, 2019, 06:51:47 AM
Wojo and his teammates will make Joey a great player. He's not there yet and for the first time in his life he's far from the best player on the court and the frustration set in. The next stage in his development will come this summer where he's going to be made to work his arse off. But I hope for his sake he can get a little hot now. Be nice for him to get some swagger going into the Tourney.
Totally agree with this. Very reasonable and pragmatic.
Quote from: GooooMarquette on February 14, 2019, 09:01:41 AM
Here's the reality: Statistics do not DETERMINE anything; the play on the court determines the outcome of every game. Statistics are just a shorthand way of SUMMARIZING what happened after the fact.
Superbly stated.
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on February 14, 2019, 08:23:12 AM
No, they lost that game because they shot a putrid 45.2 eFG% while Kansas shot a respectable 55.5 eFG%. Only reason Memphis had a chance to miss those FTs was because they beat Kansas on the offensive glass, in the turnover battle, and in getting to the line more often.
Why can't it be both? Shoot better eFG and shoot better FT's? The issue I have with the #FTsNoMatta crowd is that it is just that, a FREE SHOT. No one guarding you. Every other shot in a game has a defender, or action going on....there is a resistance. There is no resistance on a free throw...it is you shooting an uncontested shot. To be able to shoot better FG% or more efficiently is easier said than done because the opposing team has a say in how difficult that will be. Not the case with free throws.
Quote from: MU03Grad on February 14, 2019, 07:53:03 AM
I think Memphis lost a National Championship to Kansas because they couldn't ice the game with free throws.
Derrick Rose's SAT test and his brother getting free travel to all the games would have retroactively had something to do with it too...
Quote from: GooooMarquette on February 14, 2019, 09:01:41 AM
Ummmm...you said that.
MU03Grad said: "I think Memphis lost a National Championship to Kansas because they couldn't ice the game with free throws."
Your response began with "No," clearly implying that the missed free throws played no role in causing the loss.
Play semantic games after the "no" all you want, but that says you don't believe the missed free throws cost them a NC.
Here's the reality: Statistics do not DETERMINE anything; the play on the court determines the outcome of every game. Statistics are just a shorthand way of SUMMARIZING what happened after the fact.
That makes sense, I see what you are saying. The way I interpret "cost them the game" is "most important factor that led to them losing the game". Under that definition, I would argue that no is the correct answer. Your definition makes sense as well.
I also understand what you are saying in your last line but I see it differently.
Quote from: MDMU04 on February 14, 2019, 09:19:32 AM
Derrick Rose's SAT test and his brother getting free travel to all the games would have retroactively had something to do with it too...
This, memphis never went to the championship
Quote from: Cheeks on February 14, 2019, 09:16:28 AM
Why can't it be both? Shoot better eFG and shoot better FT's? The issue I have with the #FTsNoMatta crowd is that it is just that, a FREE SHOT. No one guarding you. Every other shot in a game has a defender, or action going on....there is a resistance. There is no resistance on a free throw...it is you shooting an uncontested shot. To be able to shoot better FG% or more efficiently is easier said than done because the opposing team has a say in how difficult that will be. Not the case with free throws.
But it is not a free shot. If it was, they would just give you the points. The best FT shooting team in the country this season misses 20% of their free throws. On average teams miss 32% of their free throws.
I understand what you are saying, but all I and the others who say #FTsNoMatta are trying to point out is the impact of different stats on the game. Yes, team FT% can make an impact on a game. Just not nearly as much of an impact as other more significant stats.
The funny thing about the 2008 Memphis/KU example, Memphis only shot 59.6% from the free throw line that season. They shot 63.2% from the line that game, so above their average. If they had shot their average, they would have lost the game in regulation. Sure if they had an above average FT shooting night, they could have won the game. But if they have even a slightly below average night in eFG% or eFG% defense, they win the game by multiple possessions. The latter seems more significant to me, but the focus even 10 years later is still on missed FTs.
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on February 14, 2019, 07:27:06 AM
You just made my point for me. FTs almost never cost a team the game, fans just think they do. Shooting an improved FT% in a game likely means 1 or 2 extra points. There are extreme situations where it is more, but not in most games. Shooting a better eFG%, or preventing your opponent from shooting a better eFG% are going to result in a lot more extra points, same with OR%, TO%, and FTR. We just focus on the free throws because we think they should be automatic.
Whew, that's all? Good thing that a point or two never matters in the outcome of the game.
So is it your bold contention that being better on offense and defense will result in better basketball? Huh. That seems weird, not sure I buy that.
Has anyone ever said the FT% is the most important stat? I have never heard that. But they play a role in the game. And in many cases, After everything else that happens in the game, sometimes it comes down to a guy hitting his free throws. After all the eFG, and defense and rebounds, sometimes the game basically ends on the free throw line. Situationally, they can certainly matter. And to dismiss them out of hand seems like you are getting too caught up in the numbers and losing sight of what is actually happening in the game.
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on February 14, 2019, 09:43:10 AM
But it is not a free shot. If it was, they would just give you the points. The best FT shooting team in the country this season misses 20% of their free throws. On average teams miss 32% of their free throws.
Isn't this exactly why they matter? They aren't free points. Having guys that can execute gives you an advantage over the other team. Having guys that excel at getting to the line and making them gives you an even more significant advantage.
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on February 14, 2019, 09:43:10 AM
The funny thing about the 2008 Memphis/KU example, Memphis only shot 59.6% from the free throw line that season. They shot 63.2% from the line that game, so above their average. If they had shot their average, they would have lost the game in regulation. Sure if they had an above average FT shooting night, they could have won the game. But if they have even a slightly below average night in eFG% or eFG% defense, they win the game by multiple possessions. The latter seems more significant to me, but the focus even 10 years later is still on missed FTs.
At the end of the game, with everything that happened behind them, they can't go back and change the possessions that have already occurred. What was in their control was hitting the free throws in front of them. Could they have played better to that point? Yeah, sure. Does playing a better team than they had played all year impact where their eFG%s were in that game? Yeah, probably. They had the game to win, they didn't execute their free throws, seems like it mattered.
#FTsNoMatter has nothing to do with the importance of individual free throws in an individual game.
Free throws count as points, just like 2-point and 3-point baskets. Score more points than the other team, and you win the game. That's obvious to anyone who's ever watched basketball. Clearly, making or missing free throws can impact the outcome of a game.
But according to Dean Oliver, Ken Pomeroy and others who mathematically break down the keys to winning and losing (points are numbers, and the relationships between numbers is math), four factors matter most:
1. Shooting (eFG%)
2. Turnovers (TO%)
3. Rebounding (ORB%)
4. Free Throws (FTRate, or FTA/FGA)
Those are listed in priority order. How well a team shoots the ball from the field is statistically more important to predicting victory than any other factor. Free throw rate (how often a team gets to the line, or the ratio of foul shots to field goal attempts) is statistically the least important factor. But you need all four.
Team free throw percentage is not a statistically important factor in predicting whether a team wins or loses. Dean Oliver puts it simply: "Teams that get to the line more are more effective than teams that make a higher percentage of their free throws."
There's some disagreement over just how much weight each factor gets. In fact, the importance of each factor can vary from team to team. Regardless, this isn't just theory. It's strategic analytics. You can learn more about it here:
http://www.rawbw.com/~deano/articles/20040601_roboscout.htm (http://www.rawbw.com/~deano/articles/20040601_roboscout.htm)
https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/factors.html (https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/factors.html)
https://kenpom.com/blog/four-factors/ (https://kenpom.com/blog/four-factors/)
Quote from: buckchuckler on February 14, 2019, 09:46:39 AM
Whew, that's all? Good thing that a point or two never matters in the outcome of the game.
So is it your bold contention that being better on offense and defense will result in better basketball? Huh. That seems weird, not sure I buy that.
Has anyone ever said the FT% is the most important stat? I have never heard that. But they play a role in the game. And in many cases, After everything else that happens in the game, sometimes it comes down to a guy hitting his free throws. After all the eFG, and defense and rebounds, sometimes the game basically ends on the free throw line. Situationally, they can certainly matter. And to dismiss them out of hand seems like you are getting too caught up in the numbers and losing sight of what is actually happening in the game.
Again #FTsNoMatta is short for #TeamFT%MattasVeryLittleInImpactingWhichTeamWillWinaBasketballGame (changed determining to impacting at Goooo's suggestion). It's not that they don't matta at all. It's that they don't matta as much as most people think.
Quote from: buckchuckler on February 14, 2019, 09:54:52 AM
At the end of the game, with everything that happened behind them, they can't go back and change the possessions that have already occurred. What was in their control was hitting the free throws in front of them. Could they have played better to that point? Yeah, sure. Does playing a better team than they had played all year impact where their eFG%s were in that game? Yeah, probably. They had the game to win, they didn't execute their free throws, seems like it mattered.
Why do we get to dismiss everything that happened before the missed FTs but not the missed FTs? 10 years later, and all the focus is still on the missed FTs at the end. Why not missed open jumpers and layups? Why not dumb unforced turnovers? Why not not boxing out and giving up an offensive rebound that led to second chance points? Why not blown defensive assignments that led to easy points? All of these impacted the game as a whole more than the missed FTs at the end, but because the FTs were at the end of the game that's where we focus all our attention.
How 'bout that Markus and Joey!
Quote from: MU82 on February 14, 2019, 10:17:53 AM
How 'bout that Markus and Joey!
They can really shoot free throws, which, depending on your perspective, either matters or doesn't.
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on February 14, 2019, 10:10:56 AM
Again #FTsNoMatta is short for #TeamFT%MattasVeryLittleInImpactingWhichTeamWillWinaBasketballGame (changed determining to impacting at Goooo's suggestion). It's not that they don't matta at all. It's that they don't matta as much as most people think.
Why do we get to dismiss everything that happened before the missed FTs but not the missed FTs? 10 years later, and all the focus is still on the missed FTs at the end. Why not missed open jumpers and layups? Why not dumb unforced turnovers? Why not not boxing out and giving up an offensive rebound that led to second chance points? Why not blown defensive assignments that led to easy points? All of these impacted the game as a whole more than the missed FTs at the end, but because the FTs were at the end of the game that's where we focus all our attention.
You should mean what you say and say what you mean. Saying they matter less than other components of the game is fine, and you would get little disagreement. Saying they don't matter is ridiculous.
You can't dismiss everything else, but in getting to the end of the game, they could have overcome the other aspects by hitting their free throws. It matters more because it was the last thing that happened. In a football game missing a FG in the first half has the same impact as missing one as time expires, but one gets remembered more. Giving up runs in the 7th inning counts the same as giving them up in the 9th, but the runs in the 9th get remembered. The Bears had plenty of ways they could have won their game against the Eagles, but in the end, they could have made a easily make-able field goal. They didn't. The missed FG is what will be remembered.
Quote from: TSmith34 on February 14, 2019, 10:25:40 AM
They can really shoot free throws, which, depending on your perspective, either matters or doesn't.
It matters in the micro, and not in the macro.
Quote from: MU82 on February 14, 2019, 10:17:53 AM
How 'bout that Markus and Joey!
Who?, do you mean eMH and eJH?
Quote from: MU82 on February 14, 2019, 10:17:53 AM
How 'bout that Markus and Joey!
Yeah. Sorry. I'll be done derailing the train.
Perhaps the ultimate example of #FTsNoMatta is Incarnate Word (yes, they actually compete in Division I basketball).
The Cardinals average 79.7% from the free throw line this season, good for #2 nationally. But that's one of the few bright spots of their season. They rank in the bottom 50 in turnover rate, offensive rebounding, field goal percentage defense, defensive rebounding and defensive free throw rate. Opponents shoot an astounding 62.2% against them from 2-point range.
Their record: 6-18 overall, just 1-10 in the Southland Conference. Four of their wins came against non-Division I teams.
And they wouldn't be much better even if they made 100% of their free throws.
Quote from: Bocephys on February 14, 2019, 10:28:17 AM
It matters in the micro, and not in the macro.
Sure, but what about in the Fiserv?
Quote from: Marcus92 on February 14, 2019, 10:39:05 AM
Perhaps the ultimate example of #FTsNoMatta is Incarnate Word (yes, they actually compete in Division I basketball).
The Cardinals average 79.7% from the free throw line this season, good for #2 nationally. But that's one of the few bright spots of their season. They rank in the bottom 50 in turnover rate, offensive rebounding, field goal percentage defense, defensive rebounding and defensive free throw rate. Opponents shoot an astounding 62.2% against them from 2-point range.
Their record: 6-18 overall, just 1-10 in the Southland Conference. Four of their wins came against non-Division I teams.
And they wouldn't be much better even if they made 100% of their free throws.
And nobody disagrees. Which is the point of my original post on the topic in this thread. Nobody in the preseason was talking about how good Incarnate Word could be because of their great free throw shooting. The importance of a team's free throw shooting isn't overblown. It's only discussed when a team loses a close game where they shot awfully from the free throw line...aka when it made a difference in the outcome of a game. Nobody talks about free throw shooting as an indicator for how good or bad a team is.
Quote from: wadesworld on February 14, 2019, 10:44:59 AM
Nobody talks about free throw shooting as an indicator for how good or bad a team is.
In his bracket predictions, Bilas did note that while Happ is a good player he is a bad FT shooter. It took up one sentence in a Wisconsin capsule that was about 50 words long. I guess that means perhaps the most astute basketball observer among the talking heads thinks FTs matta.
But again ...
How 'bout Markus and Joey?!?!
I've noticed that Markus is a good basketball player, and Joey isn't half-bad, either.
Quote from: TSmith34 on February 14, 2019, 10:25:40 AM
They can really shoot free throws, which, depending on your perspective, either matters or doesn't.
It absolutely matters! It's just that if you break
team basketball into a set of 4 statistics for predictive purposes, the fact that they can really shoot free throws matters the least, of the 4, especially considering that the stat really only matters if they actually get to the FT line, and doesn't actually measure how well they shoot FTs - as a
team.
The hashtag would be better as #TeamFtPercentageNoMattaButFtAttemptsDoALittleBit
So JB really causes this debate by his inaccurate hashtag, and TAMU somehow defends it :)
If we're looking for some statistical number that is 100% effective in explaining why a team won a game, why not keep it simple?
TPS/OTPS*
If it's over 1.0, you WILL win. Better at explaining wins and losses than eFG%, TO%, ORB%, FTR, ORTG and yes, even FT%. Just make sure your TPS/OTPS is over 1.0, and you have yourself a W.
You're all welcome.
*Total Points Scored/Opponent Total Points Scored
Quote from: wadesworld on February 14, 2019, 10:44:59 AM
Nobody talks about free throw shooting as an indicator for how good or bad a team is.
Not sure I totally agree here. It's the sum of the parts, isn't it? If you are a good free throw shooting team, it doesn't mean you are a good team....we all agree. However, if you are a good team and also a good free throw shooting team, you have a probability advantage of doing better than a good team that is mediocre at free throw shooting.
It's a bit like a baseball team with a great closer / bullpen. You basically have to be good for 7 innings and rely on the bullpen. A good free throw shooting team can seal games for you at the end that can be the deciding edge in the end result.
Quote from: rocky_warrior on February 14, 2019, 11:37:32 AM
So JB really causes this debate by his inaccurate hashtag, and TAMU somehow defends it :)
So we can all pedantically scream "FAKE NEWS", "LIES" any time he uses it?
Quote from: MU82 on February 14, 2019, 11:03:36 AMIn his bracket predictions, Bilas did note that while Happ is a good player he is a bad FT shooter.
Happ's poor performance at the line is quite stunning. Through 14 conference games this season, he's made just 22 of 63 free throws. That's
34.9%. Yeeesh. At this point Hack-A-Happ looks like a pretty good strategy, if you can manage the fouls.
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on February 14, 2019, 09:43:10 AM
But it is not a free shot. If it was, they would just give you the points. The best FT shooting team in the country this season misses 20% of their free throws. On average teams miss 32% of their free throws.
I understand what you are saying, but all I and the others who say #FTsNoMatta are trying to point out is the impact of different stats on the game. Yes, team FT% can make an impact on a game. Just not nearly as much of an impact as other more significant stats.
The funny thing about the 2008 Memphis/KU example, Memphis only shot 59.6% from the free throw line that season. They shot 63.2% from the line that game, so above their average. If they had shot their average, they would have lost the game in regulation. Sure if they had an above average FT shooting night, they could have won the game. But if they have even a slightly below average night in eFG% or eFG% defense, they win the game by multiple possessions. The latter seems more significant to me, but the focus even 10 years later is still on missed FTs.
OK, free shot attempts. Bonus points that are there for you if you make your shots, which is why FT's matter to an extent. No one guarding you, just you and the ball and the basket. There for the taking.
Actually, the free throw stat for Memphis is a bit misleading in that championship game. Yes, they did shoot above their average FT%, but below the number of attempts. They averaged 24.92 attempts per game going into that championship. They only shot 19 in the championship but if they shot their normal 25 per game at their normal 59% clip, they get almost 3 extra points. Of course the other critical part of FT shooting is what you do in the 1 and 1 situation, because if you miss the first you don't get a second shot.
Quote from: Cheeks on February 14, 2019, 12:58:23 PM
OK, free shot attempts. Bonus points that are there for you if you make your shots, which is why FT's matter to an extent. No one guarding you, just you and the ball and the basket. There for the taking.
Actually, the free throw stat for Memphis is a bit misleading in that championship game. Yes, they did shoot above their average FT%, but below the number of attempts. They averaged 24.92 attempts per game going into that championship. They only shot 19 in the championship but if they shot their normal 25 per game at their normal 59% clip, they get almost 3 extra points. Of course the other critical part of FT shooting is what you do in the 1 and 1 situation, because if you miss the first you don't get a second shot.
Yes, how often you get to the free throw line (which is measured by Free Throw Rate [FTR]) absolutely makes a huge impact in the game.
For crying out loud, is there not a thread where this could be discussed that is dedicated to free throw percentages??
Let's get back on topic...
Now, if Marcus and Joie were a free throw shot, who would be the ball and who would be the hoop?
#MarkusandJoeyNoMatta
Quote from: GooooMarquette on February 14, 2019, 11:40:30 AM
If we're looking for some statistical number that is 100% effective in explaining why a team won a game, why not keep it simple?
TPS/OTPS*
If it's over 1.0, you WILL win. Better at explaining wins and losses than eFG%, TO%, ORB%, FTR, ORTG and yes, even FT%. Just make sure your TPS/OTPS is over 1.0, and you have yourself a W.
You're all welcome.
*Total Points Scored/Opponent Total Points Scored
(https://frinkiac.com/gif/S08E12/185751/188888.gif?b64lines=IEhNTS4gWU9VUgogSURFQVMgQVJFIElOVFJJR1VJTkcgVE8KIE1FIEFORCBJIFdJU0ggVE8KIFNVQlNDUklCRSBUTyBZT1VSCiBORVdTTEVUVEVS)
Quote from: buckchuckler on February 14, 2019, 09:46:39 AM
Has anyone ever said the FT% is the most important stat? I have never heard that.
Oh, people cry about, "we lost because we missed 8 free throws!" when they went 16/24 from the line on the day.
The thing is, in that situation the "bad" free throw shooting was actually ELITE offense and HELPED their offense.
If I tell you team A had a better eFG% than team B in a game, you'd bet money that team A won the game.
If I tell you team A had a better FT% than team B in a game, you'd have no idea who the eff won and wouldn't bet based on that.
#FTsNoMatta
Quote from: Jay Bee on February 14, 2019, 09:42:08 PM
#FTsNoMatta
LIES!
Quote from: TSmith34 on February 14, 2019, 12:04:07 PM
So we can all pedantically scream "FAKE NEWS", "LIES" any time he uses it?
Yep! Except I never use that other term. It's a fake term.
Quote from: Jay Bee on February 14, 2019, 09:42:08 PM
If I tell you team A had a better eFG% than team B in a game, you'd bet money that team A won the game.
If I tell you team A had a better FT% than team B in a game, you'd have no idea who the eff won and wouldn't bet based on that.
#FTsNoMatta
True
True
However, If I tell you team A and team B will have equal FGe%, but one is a better FT shooting team at 75% vs 70%, which team you betting on.
#FT'sMattaJustNotAsMuchAsOtherMetrics
The team that shot 21-30 while the other team shot 3-4?
Quote from: Jay Bee on February 14, 2019, 09:42:08 PM
Oh, people cry about, "we lost because we missed 8 free throws!" when they went 16/24 from the line on the day.
The thing is, in that situation the "bad" free throw shooting was actually ELITE offense and HELPED their offense.
If I tell you team A had a better eFG% than team B in a game, you'd bet money that team A won the game.
If I tell you team A had a better FT% than team B in a game, you'd have no idea who the eff won and wouldn't bet based on that.
#FTsNoMatta
what % of games does the winning team have a better eFG%? #EFG%KindaMatta
Quote from: Jay Bee on February 14, 2019, 09:42:08 PM
Oh, people cry about, "we lost because we missed 8 free throws!" when they went 16/24 from the line on the day.
The thing is, in that situation the "bad" free throw shooting was actually ELITE offense and HELPED their offense.
If I tell you team A had a better eFG% than team B in a game, you'd bet money that team A won the game.
If I tell you team A had a better FT% than team B in a game, you'd have no idea who the eff won and wouldn't bet based on that.
#FTsNoMatta
FAKE NEWS!
Quote from: Cheeks on February 14, 2019, 10:32:06 PM
True
True
However, If I tell you team A and team B will have equal FGe%, but one is a better FT shooting team at 75% vs 70%, which team you betting on.
#FT'sMattaJustNotAsMuchAsOtherMetrics
Having the FT% by team in that example doesn't give me enough info to sway me either way - not meaningful to determining the winner.
Quote from: Cheeks on February 14, 2019, 10:32:06 PMHowever, If I tell you team A and team B will have equal FGe%, but one is a better FT shooting team at 75% vs 70%, which team you betting on.
The one that is better at protecting the ball. If they're equal in that regard too, I'll take the better rebounding team.
Just tell me the TPS/OTPS - one single stat - and I will tell you who won.
#theonlyadvancedstatyouneed