Poll
Question:
How many?
Option 1: 2
votes: 8
Option 2: 3
votes: 35
Option 3: 4
votes: 136
Option 4: 5
votes: 49
Option 5: 6
votes: 2
Let's hope the league stays a top-two race. Bracket Matrix currently has 5 in (MU, Nova, Hall, SJU and Butler) but it's seems possible that the also-rans could eat each other up and no one after the top two goes better than 10-8.
SJU is probably a lock at 10-8 (22-8), but anyone else? Butler at 10-8 (19-12), Hall at 10-8 (19-11) seem pretty bubbly.
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/
How much money does the conference get for team appearances? Should we be picking a few also-ran favorites and rooting for them the rest of the way?
it's probably 4 unless someone other than MU/Nova/STJ/Butler win the conference tournament.
Since I've never been a fan of conference tournaments because they just tire you out for the real tournament, here's hoping that Providence or another team that's well coached and fun to watch wins it and we get 5 in the big dance.
No way it'll be more than 5.
I would say SJU is the least likely to be a lock at 10-8 given there non conference schedule. I never realized the Seton Hall won @ Maryland. I kept saying this was a 2 bid league but beating Kentucky and Maryland is impressive.
The conference standings right now do not inspire much confidence in me that the league will get 4 or more bids. Right now only 2 teams are above .500, and outside of St Johns, none of the 3-4 teams really have stellar non-conference resumes.
Someone who is better than me at math could probably answer this: Is it possible for a 10 team league to end the season with only 2 teams .500 or better?
Quote from: SaveOD238 on January 24, 2019, 07:30:15 AM
The conference standings right now do not inspire much confidence in me that the league will get 4 or more bids. Right now only 2 teams are above .500, and outside of St Johns, none of the 3-4 teams really have stellar non-conference resumes.
Someone who is better than me at math could probably answer this: Is it possible for a 10 team league to end the season with only 2 teams .500 or better?
Sure, If the top two teams combined go 3-1 or better against each of the other 8 teams and the 8 split with each other it would happen. In theory you could have 9 under .500 if the top team sweeps everybody and everybody else splits with each other.
I doubt very much that it will happen.
Quote from: WarriorFan on January 24, 2019, 04:56:33 AM
it's probably 4 unless someone other than MU/Nova/STJ/Butler win the conference tournament.
Since I've never been a fan of conference tournaments because they just tire you out for the real tournament, here's hoping that Providence or another team that's well coached and fun to watch wins it and we get 5 in the big dance.
No way it'll be more than 5.
uh...no...here is hoping Marquette wins it
They still need to send 68. And the Pac-12 is probably capped at 2.
Three (MU, Nova, and STJ) plus a bubble (Butler or Seton Hall).
Wild card is if Providence rolls through the BEast Tourney again.
Quote from: jsglow on January 24, 2019, 07:42:36 AM
They still need to send 68. And the Pac-12 is probably capped at 2.
When you say probably capped at 2 you mean they'd be luck to get 2 right? The PAC-12 was objectively terrible in non-conference and them beating up on each other in conference play isn't going to win them a bunch of spots. It's at least 50/50 at this point that the PAC-12 is a 1 bid league.
I think the Big East gets 5 because you are right they have to fill the field and it's not like there are a ton of mid-majors out there lighting the world on fire, there can always be bubble busters out of the one bid leagues but I suspect it'll be a pretty soft bubble this year.
Quote from: WarriorFan on January 24, 2019, 04:56:33 AM
it's probably 4 unless someone other than MU/Nova/STJ/Butler win the conference tournament.
Since I've never been a fan of conference tournaments because they just tire you out for the real tournament, here's hoping that Providence or another team that's well coached and fun to watch wins it and we get 5 in the big dance.
No way it'll be more than 5.
Villanova made it to (and won) the BET title last year and went on to win the NCAA Title.
UNC made it to the ACC Tournament semifinals in 2017 and won the NCAA Title.
Villanova made it to the BET title in 2016 and won the NCAA Title.
Duke made it to the ACC Tournament semifinals in 2015 and won the NCAA Title.
UCONN made it to the AAC Tournament finals in 2014 and won the NCAA Title.
etc.
I don't think conference tournaments wear teams out. They're 18-22 year old kids for the most part, and they get at least 3 days off, most 4 or 5 days off between the end of conference tournaments and the first round starting. And if you made a run in your conference tournament you're probably a high seed, so you shouldn't have a ton of trouble the first round.
Hall is definitely in at 10-8.
That's above .500 in league with non con wins away from home vs Maryland and UK
Quote from: mu03eng on January 24, 2019, 07:58:22 AM
When you say probably capped at 2 you mean they'd be luck to get 2 right? The PAC-12 was objectively terrible in non-conference and them beating up on each other in conference play isn't going to win them a bunch of spots. It's at least 50/50 at this point that the PAC-12 is a 1 bid league.
I have to think the Pac-12 is two at most. They have teams that right now look to line up as potential tourney teams (hence why I have 3 in currently) but those resumes really falter under scrutiny:
Washington: Highest NET at 41, but they currently have zero top-100 wins & their best non-con win is probably the neutral court win over NET 120 Texas A&M. Currently 0-4 in Q1A, Q1B, & Q2A. They will either need a ridiculous record (15-3 in league at worst) or the auto-bid.
Arizona: The Iowa State & UConn wins are pretty nice if they don't get any bad losses. If they are convincing regular season winners, they will have a decent shot because 9 of their remaining 12 are Q1/2.
Oregon: They have some really bad losses & need that Syracuse neutral to stay Q1. They are already off to a 2-3 conference start and probably need 14-15 conference victories to have a shot.
Arizona State: This is the best at-large shot. 3 Q1 non-con wins is big, remember they got in last year with an 8-10 conference record. But they do already have 2 bad losses, so they can't afford any more. ASU will have a legit at-large shot at 11-7 or 12-6, probably the only Pac-12 team that can say that.
Honestly, I don't think anyone else can get hot enough to make the tourney. Everyone else has too many bad losses without enough opportunities to get good wins, as much as any Pac-12 win can be called a good win. So really, you have three teams with some outside aspirations in Washington, Arizona, and Oregon, but they all need a dominant conference season to get there, and at most one of them will accomplish that. I think the most likely multi-bid scenario is if ASU gets to 12-6 & someone else wins the autobid. If you have a scenario where Washington or Arizona go 16-2, ASU goes 13-5, and someone else wins the tourney, they could get to 3. But that would take a lot of dominoes falling right. I think 2 is the most likely scenario, though ASU as a double champion would probably insure only one bid.
Quote from: mu03eng on January 24, 2019, 07:58:22 AM
When you say probably capped at 2 you mean they'd be luck to get 2 right? The PAC-12 was objectively terrible in non-conference and them beating up on each other in conference play isn't going to win them a bunch of spots. It's at least 50/50 at this point that the PAC-12 is a 1 bid league.
I think the Big East gets 5 because you are right they have to fill the field and it's not like there are a ton of mid-majors out there lighting the world on fire, there can always be bubble busters out of the one bid leagues but I suspect it'll be a pretty soft bubble this year.
If we get half the conference in in a year which is easily the weakest Big East since ??? that's another indictment on how big the tourney really is (and how sad it is to ever miss it).
Marquette, Villanova, St. John's, and Seton Hall.
Butler would need to make a lot of noise in conference to make it. They only have 0 1a wins, 1 1b win (Florida on neutral court), and one other win that could jump up to 1b status (Ole Miss at home).
Providence would need to make even more noise than Butler. 0 1a wins, 1 1b win (at Texas), and some ugly losses to UMass and Wichita State. Their win at Xavier could jump up to a 1b win if they right the ship.
Creighton may already be dead in the water. 0 Q1 wins? And with the current NET rankings, they only have 3 more opportunities for a Q1 win: at Nova, at Hall, and at Marquette. Honestly, they may have to go 3-0 in those games to have a shot. I don't see a team with 2 or less Q1 wins making the tourney.
X, Georgetown, and DePaul are probably out of it already. Sure they could win out and make it but I don't see a reasonable path to the tourney for any of them.
Quote from: 1SE on January 24, 2019, 09:22:38 AM
If we get half the conference in in a year which is easily the weakest Big East since ??? that's another indictment on how big the tourney really is (and how sad it is to ever miss it).
Not really. Just because the conference is down doesn't mean it doesn't have five tournament quality teams. The top of the conference is weaker than in past years, but the bottom is better.
The conference is down relative to past performance but it is still strong relative to other conferences . Big Ten is up for sure but everyone else is relative the same.
The Hall has a tournament worthy resume if they can get to 10 wins. I think The Johnnies can get in there with 10.
It really comes down in my view as to who is the best of Providence , Butler and Creighton. Also the committee considers injuries so the fact that Reeves has been out for Providence will be a factor, especially if he performs at a high level again when he comes back.
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on January 24, 2019, 09:24:47 AM
Marquette, Villanova, St. John's, and Seton Hall.
Butler would need to make a lot of noise in conference to make it. They only have 0 1a wins, 1 1b win (Florida on neutral court), and one other win that could jump up to 1b status (Ole Miss at home).
Providence would need to make even more noise than Butler. 0 1a wins, 1 1b win (at Texas), and some ugly losses to UMass and Wichita State. Their win at Xavier could jump up to a 1b win if they right the ship.
Creighton may already be dead in the water. 0 Q1 wins? And with the current NET rankings, they only have 3 more opportunities for a Q1 win: at Nova, at Hall, and at Marquette. Honestly, they may have to go 3-0 in those games to have a shot. I don't see a team with 2 or less Q1 wins making the tourney.
X, Georgetown, and DePaul are probably out of it already. Sure they could win out and make it but I don't see a reasonable path to the tourney for any of them.
I think Creighton, DePaul, Georgetown, Providence, and X are dead in the water barring some sort of 8-1 run and/or winning the conference tournament. I think the only legit tournament contenders are us, Nova, Butler, St Johns, and Seton Hall. St John's has the least room for error in my opinion because that non-conference schedule was terrible. Their win over us obviously helps but they are going to need to get at least 2 more Q1 wins, probably 3 to feel comfortable. They have the schedule opportunities but do they have the consistency to pull it off? Butler I think has more work to do overall but more runway to do it in if that makes sense.
It'll be interesting, I probably should have made my statement that the Big East for sure gets 4 and likely gets 5.
Quote from: mu03eng on January 24, 2019, 07:58:22 AM
When you say probably capped at 2 you mean they'd be luck to get 2 right? The PAC-12 was objectively terrible in non-conference and them beating up on each other in conference play isn't going to win them a bunch of spots. It's at least 50/50 at this point that the PAC-12 is a 1 bid league.
I think the Big East gets 5 because you are right they have to fill the field and it's not like there are a ton of mid-majors out there lighting the world on fire, there can always be bubble busters out of the one bid leagues but I suspect it'll be a pretty soft bubble this year.
Eng, I really don't believe that. The powers that be just are going to find a way to add a second Pac-12 team unless they absolutely can't. They may have to fly to Dayton but the NCAA doesn't want all the west coast TVs turned off for the tourney. It might not be fair. But it's politics in my mind.
As far as the Big East, I think it's important to look around the country. There are 36 at-large bids. How many can other leagues expect? Remember, this is just at-larges I'm counting, not autobids:
Big 10, 8: 7 are solidly in, 4 are solidly out. That leaves Ohio State, Indiana, and Minnesota on the bubble. I have them in at the moment, but I don't know if it stays that way. Per Pomeroy, Ohio State is an underdog in 8 of their remaining 13 games. Indiana is an underdog in 7/12 and Minnesota is an underdog in 9/12. I think at most 2 make it.
ACC, 7: The ACC has 8 really solid bets to get in and 5 solid bets to miss out. The middle two are Pittsburgh and Clemson. Seems like their hole & remaining schedule is just too tough.
Big 12, 6: 5 solidly in, 2 solidly out. The three who will likely be fighting to the end are Texas, TCU, & Baylor. Most likely, 2/3 get in.
SEC, 7.5: This league is the wildcard. 3 solidly in, 4 solidly out. The other 7? Who knows? At times they have all looked like tourney teams, at others they look lost. Split the difference, say 3.5 get in.
Everyone else, 4: The American is probably 1.5, Houston is in, Cincy, Temple, & UCF have shots. Pac-12, let's say 0.5 at-large. Then there are bid thieves. Nevada, VCU, Buffalo, and Gonzaga will probably all get in as at-larges. Wofford, Murray State, and Hofstra would get discussion, but probably not. And as much as I love Furman, I just don't see the 2-bid SoCon. Let's say 2 more bids from those other leagues.
So that adds up to 32.5 bids. Which means when you factor in the autobid, the Big East gets an additional 3.5 teams. So who will it be after Marquette & Villanova?
Seton Hall: The DePaul losses suck, but 9-9 in league should be enough thanks to some impressive non-con wins.
St. John's: The bubble looks soft enough that 10-8 should be enough despite the wretched non-conference. They are favored in 8/11 conference games, though 2 are toss-ups (50 & 51%).
Butler: They are a lot like St. John's in that 10-8 should be enough, 9-9 or less will have them worrying. They are favored in 7/11 games and need to get to 7 to feel secure. Not much room for error.
I think this is the cut-off. Honestly, if these teams above get to 9-9 they at least give themselves a chance to be in Dayton. The teams below need more to feel any hope.
Creighton: They don't have any bad non-con losses, but not much in terms of quality wins either. Probably need to get to 10-11 wins in league, which feels like a big ask for a team that can't defend anyone.
Providence: The South Carolina win is starting to age well & with the Texas win gives them something to their non-con, though how do you lose to Wichita State and UMass? Like Creighton, they need 10-11 wins to have a chance. For a team only favored in 4/12 games with 2 wins under their belt, that seems unlikely.
And if everyone else lumps around at 9-9 or worse, the question becomes who gets in ahead of them? Will it be the 7-13 Big 10 team? Does the SC take Clemson or Pitt who are both pretty bad? Or do they take 3 Pac-12 teams just because and make the SoCon a 2-bid league?
There just aren't a lot of options out there. They have to get to 36 at-large teams.
I suppose the best thing is that we're essentially playing for seeding at this point. I know, I know. Lots of basketball left. :)
remember that the BEast teams hoping for an at-large bid are looking at the Marquette game as a potential notch on their resume.
I voted for 5, and I think that is the most likely outcome.
I think SJU and Hall are somewhere between 7-10 seeds, and Butler is probably one of the last couple teams in. PC and Creighton not completely dead, but they need to get hot, and soon.
I think a 2 bid league like some have suggested is never going to happen, and 3 bids is super duper unlikely. Need to fill the field.
Interesting to read up on the pay-offs for conference tourney appearances - I think this has been discussed before - but again - looks like each BE team that makes it pulls over about $1.5 million, and each win is then also worth $1.5mil.
Don't know how the BE splits up that money - but assuming it's split equally that 150,000 to MU for each team in, and each BE win. Not exactly exciting money, but not complete chump change either.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/sports/ncaa-money/
https://www.sbnation.com/college-basketball/2018/3/30/17131466/how-much-money-do-colleges-make-off-the-ncaa-tournament-every-year
Quote from: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on January 24, 2019, 11:00:40 AMI think a 2 bid league like some have suggested is never going to happen, and 3 bids is super duper unlikely. Need to fill the field.
2 is really hard to imagine. The one Scooper saying that always complains that no one tells him who in the Big East will convincingly get in, yet he can't say who will take those 2-3 spots if we don't get them. 3 isn't impossible, but it probably only happens with numerous bid thieves. Utah State, Toledo, ETSU, and St Mary's getting autobids.
Quote from: brewcity77 on January 24, 2019, 11:11:34 AM
2 is really hard to imagine. The one Scooper saying that always complains that no one tells him who in the Big East will convincingly get in, yet he can't say who will take those 2-3 spots if we don't get them. 3 isn't impossible, but it probably only happens with numerous bid thieves. Utah State, Toledo, ETSU, and St Mary's getting autobids.
I don't feel like taking the time to look outside the conference. If I had to wager on it I would bet Seton Hall gets in and thats it. Everyone is high on St.Johns for some reason. I bet they lose there next 3 and are looking in barring some miraculous turnaround.
Quote from: HowardsWorld on January 24, 2019, 11:15:41 AM
I don't feel like taking the time to look outside the conference. If I had to wager on it I would bet Seton Hall gets in and thats it. Everyone is high on St.Johns for some reason. I bet they lose there next 3 and are looking in barring some miraculous turnaround. I am also banking on Marqutte not slipping up to anyone outside Nova which most likely will not happen.
Quote from: HowardsWorld on January 24, 2019, 11:15:41 AM
I don't feel like taking the time to look outside the conference. If I had to wager on it I would bet Seton Hall gets in and thats it. Everyone is high on St.Johns for some reason. I bet they lose there next 3 and are looking in barring some miraculous turnaround.
Not to be a prick, but in other words, you have no idea what you're talking about.
Quote from: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on January 24, 2019, 11:17:14 AM
Not to be a prick, but in other words, you have no idea what you're talking about.
I'll still be here on selection sunday to either admit I was wrong or not.
Quote from: HowardsWorld on January 24, 2019, 11:19:14 AM
I'll still be here on selection sunday to either admit I was wrong or not.
I would love to take you up on your wager of 3 teams. You get 3 and under, I get 4 and over. Let me know.
Quote from: HowardsWorld on January 24, 2019, 11:15:41 AMI don't feel like taking the time to look outside the conference.
But without that context how can anyone take your opinion seriously? It's like saying you aren't speeding when your speedometer is broken. Until you drive by the cop with a radar gun, you really don't know.
To keep those teams out, you need 35 teams that are more deserving. And if you're right about St John's, then Creighton is likely right back in the NCAA mix.
This stuff doesn't happen in a vacuum, and without the proper context, your argument rings pretty hollow.
Quote from: brewcity77 on January 24, 2019, 11:22:50 AM
But without that context how can anyone take your opinion seriously? It's like saying you aren't speeding when your speedometer is broken. Until you drive by the cop with a radar gun, you really don't know.
To keep those teams out, you need 35 teams that are more deserving. And if you're right about St John's, then Creighton is likely right back in the NCAA mix.
This stuff doesn't happen in a vacuum, and without the proper context, your argument rings pretty hollow.
To be fair, shooting your mouth off on a message board to say, which 1 of 8 teams will get in, is not making as taxing a demand as asking someone to choose 30 from 300 (or whatever) to prove the opposite.
Quote from: THRILLHO on January 24, 2019, 01:46:27 PM
To be fair, shooting your mouth off on a message board to say, which 1 of 8 teams will get in, is not making as taxing a demand as asking someone to choose 30 from 300 (or whatever) to prove the opposite.
First, I think if you're going to make a claim as bold as saying the league will have it's fewest ever bids, I think it's fair to ask for some justification.
And you can already pencil in minimum at large bids of 7 in the Big 10, 7 in the ACC, 6 in the Big 12, 5 in the SEC, & 1 from the Big East. That's 26/36 at large bids, so it's really just sussing out 10 teams that will edge SHU, SJU, and Butler.
2 only is not impossible...certainly if MU goes 17-1 and Nova 16-2, and everyone else cannibalizes to sub-500....I think its possible...just because we see that now: (MU/NOVA on top and everyone else 3-4/2-4), doesn't mean it will stay that way.
Even if you assume nova and MU stay on top, and even if you assume everyone else is about even(they're not), someone will rise, someone fall.
i think whoever is #3 will have a good enough record to qualify even if its Depaul or Providence or whoever.
#4 may or may not qualify (depending on who) but I would think between 4/5 in the BE will be a team with a good enough resume to make it....maybe pushing the bubble, but make it.
Certainly if the unlikely happens and Nova and MU continue to "win-out" and everyone else beats each other into sub-500 territory, that will be very very interesting.
Quote from: brewcity77 on January 24, 2019, 09:58:05 AM
St. John's: The bubble looks soft enough that 10-8 should be enough despite the wretched non-conference. They are favored in 8/11 conference games, though 2 are toss-ups (50 & 51%).
Also, St. John's non-con gets a little less wretched next weekend. Even if they lose @ Duke, it should be a bump to their NET ranking.
I don't think you can look at just Conference standings and automatically say that whomever finishes 3rd gets a bid. Last year, we were one game out of third, and were at best the 5th team out. Last year, the 2nd place Pac 12, 12-6 conference record USC team did not get a bid, but the 8th place Pac 12, 8-10 ASU team did. Outside the top 2, SH has the best non-conference wins, so even if they don't finish 3rd, they could still get a bid. Winning Sunday would go a long way in helping their cause.
Quote from: Its DJOver on January 24, 2019, 02:29:57 PM
I don't think you can look at just Conference standings and automatically say that whomever finishes 3rd gets a bid. Last year, we were one game out of third, and were at best the 5th team out. Last year, the 2nd place Pac 12, 12-6 conference record USC team did not get a bid, but the 8th place Pac 12, 8-10 ASU team did. Outside the top 2, SH has the best non-conference wins, so even if they don't finish 3rd, they could still get a bid. Winning Sunday would go a long way in helping their cause.
True but lets just say the 3rd place team goes 11-7 (I think it will be 12 but lets just say)...now its certainly possible that 3rd place could have 10,9 or even 8 wins....but in those cases we're getting into the cannibalism argument I posed earlier...where I admit we "could" have only 2 teams in).
So say its 11-7 and its Depaul. They have no good non-con wins...but they already have wins @SH,vSH,@SJ the other 8 wins lets say come from the bottom not top of BE and home if possible: vGT,@GT,vPR,@PR,vCR,@CR,vSJ,vBT
DePaul would then be 19-10, 3rd in the BE, some decent road wins (@SH,@SJ, etc...) a satisfying Q2 and maybe some Q1 depending on SH and SJ (which would be <=11-7 themselves).
Lots of hypotheticals but I think even the worst BE#3 at 11-7 gets in.
Quote from: MUBigDance on January 24, 2019, 03:00:34 PM
True but lets just say the 3rd place team goes 11-7 (I think it will be 12 but lets just say)...now its certainly possible that 3rd place could have 10,9 or even 8 wins....but in those cases we're getting into the cannibalism argument I posed earlier...where I admit we "could" have only 2 teams in).
So say its 11-7 and its Depaul. They have no good non-con wins...but they already have wins @SH,vSH,@SJ the other 8 wins lets say come from the bottom not top of BE and home if possible: vGT,@GT,vPR,@PR,vCR,@CR,vSJ,vBT
DePaul would then be 19-10, 3rd in the BE, some decent road wins (@SH,@SJ, etc...) a satisfying Q2 and maybe some Q1 depending on SH and SJ (which would be <=11-7 themselves).
Lots of hypotheticals but I think even the worst BE#3 at 11-7 gets in.
I mean, there are way too many hypothetical's at this point, all I was trying to say is that if the conference only gets 4 bids (which is what I voted for), it should not be a forgone conclusion that those 4 teams finish 1,2,3,4 in the standings.
Edit: Especially since I think all 10 teams could win the BET.
Quote from: Its DJOver on January 24, 2019, 03:09:28 PM
I mean, there are way too many hypothetical's at this point, all I was trying to say is that if the conference only gets 4 bids (which is what I voted for), it should not be a forgone conclusion that those 4 teams finish 1,2,3,4 in the standings.
Edit: Especially since I think all 10 teams could win the BET.
I think it's interesting to think about which teams get in at 9-9. Us and Nova I'd say are the only locks at that record. Hall and Butler are probably bubble teams at 9-9.
I think there's a decent chance 9-9 will be T4 in the final standings.
It's frustrating that this year 9-9 or even 8-10 could get some serious consideration whereas we were out at 9-9 last year and three years ago at 8-10.
Quote from: Galway Eagle on January 25, 2019, 02:40:54 AM
It's frustrating that this year 9-9 or even 8-10 could get some serious consideration whereas we were out at 9-9 last year and three years ago at 8-10.
To be fair, if 9-9 hadn't included that DePaul loss last year we might have sneaked in.
Quote from: 1SE on January 25, 2019, 02:47:27 AM
To be fair, if 9-9 hadn't included that DePaul loss last year we might have sneaked in.
Fair point. What a different perspective everybody would have on Wojo and the process of "rebuilding"
Quote from: Galway Eagle on January 25, 2019, 02:49:31 AM
Fair point. What a different perspective everybody would have on Wojo and the process of "rebuilding"
I'd say it was the worst loss of the Wojo era in terms of what it meant for the rebuild progression.
Quote from: 1SE on January 25, 2019, 02:53:24 AM
I'd say it was the worst loss of the Wojo era in terms of what it meant for the rebuild progression.
Agreed, actually really frustrating that two depaul losses are the difference between Wojo's rebuild being "bad season, NIT , NCAA, NCAA" vs bad season, no Postseason, NCAA NIT.
Quote from: Galway Eagle on January 25, 2019, 03:06:37 AM
Agreed, actually really frustrating that two depaul losses are the difference between Wojo's rebuild being "bad season, NIT , NCAA, NCAA" vs bad season, no Postseason, NCAA NIT.
That Billy Garrett three point play was still BS though.
Quote from: 1SE on January 25, 2019, 02:39:06 AM
I think it's interesting to think about which teams get in at 9-9. Us and Nova I'd say are the only locks at that record. Hall and Butler are probably bubble teams at 9-9.
I don't think Nova is a lock at 9-9, but I also don't see any way they go from 6-0 to 9-9.
I think MU and Seton Hall are locks at 9-9. Butler is probably on the bubble. Creighton, St John's, and Villanova are likely in at 10-8, definitely at 11-7. Everyone else needs 11-7 or better.
four: MU, Hall, Nova, SJU
Quote from: Eldon on January 25, 2019, 01:24:31 PM
four: MU, Hall, Nova, SJU
I think I would put PC in there instead of St. Johns. THey're still pretty young, but talented and should be getting healthy rather soon.
Not looking forward to playing them at the Dunk or for the next couple of years for that matter.
Quote from: 1SE on February 15, 2019, 09:48:19 AM
Looking pretty prescient
Agreed! When I saw this, I thought you were talking about a post from the past couple days and thought "Well yeah, duh..." Then realized it was nearly a month ago.
Quote from: WarriorFan on January 24, 2019, 04:56:33 AM
it's probably 4 unless someone other than MU/Nova/STJ/Butler win the conference tournament.
Since I've never been a fan of conference tournaments because they just tire you out for the real tournament, here's hoping that Providence or another team that's well coached and fun to watch wins it and we get 5 in the big dance.
No way it'll be more than 5.
No way. Marquette's turn to bring home the hardware.
Locks: MU and Nova
Should be in, but work to do: SJU and Hall
Work to do: Butler
Still a shot, but looking grim: PC and Creighton
Maybe they got a shot at Dayton if this finish red hot: Gtown and Depaul
That Creighton loss @ X the other night was a back breaker. They looked like they have the inside track to get to 10 wins before that.
Maybe 5 now? 6 not impossible pending BET winner.
Nova, MU, Hall are in. SJU is still in but may have played their way into Dayton.
Creighton probably a win today and a win in the BET away from getting in. Georgetown and X definitely in the convo now, but still have work to do.
The real question is how many wins the Big East will get. I'm guessing it might just be 2 right now. If we pull it together, we could be the best Big East team. But we're in a bad rut right now. All BE teams are susceptible to an early exit.
Quote from: skianth16 on March 09, 2019, 08:42:49 PM
The real question is how many wins the Big East will get. I'm guessing it might just be 2 right now. If we pull it together, we could be the best Big East team. But we're in a bad rut right now. All BE teams are susceptible to an early exit.
So is SJU out? Looking like 3 then unless X can beat Nova eh?
Quote from: 1SE on March 15, 2019, 12:28:39 AM
So is SJU out? Looking like 3 then unless X can beat Nova eh?
Howie Schwab has SJU as the last two in.
Quote from: Dr. Blackheart on March 15, 2019, 12:47:17 AM
Howie Schwab has SJU as the last two in.
79 kenpom, 64 NET (not sure if updated from today).
But I guess it is a tip of the hat to us if they make in it since we're the major part of their resume!
I know everyone is saying the Big East had a down year but no other conference had a last place team with 7 wins. The middle of our conference just beat each other up. If you have the usual bad teams at the bottom the Big East is probably looking at at least 5 in with the extra win distribution. I think the thing hurting a lot of these teams is a) they didn't play anyone in non-conference and b) if they did we had a lot of young Big East teams still learning to play and getting beat. I expect a big bounce back year next season and be back into the 6 bid range.
Jerry Palm's updated bracket has St. John's in. Not even in Dayton.
Quote from: 1SE on March 15, 2019, 01:00:05 AM
79 kenpom, 64 NET (not sure if updated from today).
But I guess it is a tip of the hat to us if they make in it since we're the major part of their resume!
Not updated yet. If St John's drops to 68, that would be a lower NET than the lowest RPI to ever make the field. Only two sub-65 RPI teams ever made the field, both played in Dayton. I'll be watching their updated NET closely today.
Just tried to come up with a field and really struggled to find 4 teams for the last 4 at-larges/PIGs, and I had Utah State, Belmont and Lipscomb getting at-larges. I'd guess SJU ends up in one of the PIGs as a penalty of sorts for their less-than-spectacular non-league schedule.
Quote from: Eye on March 15, 2019, 07:58:53 AM
Just tried to come up with a field and really struggled to find 4 teams for the last 4 at-larges/PIGs, and I had Utah State, Belmont and Lipscomb getting at-larges. I'd guess SJU ends up in one of the PIGs as a penalty of sorts for their less-than-spectacular non-league schedule.
Those last spots are awful. Comparing teams like Furman & Lipscomb who have great records but of lower quality to teams like Indiana & Texas who have quality but poor records to teams like St John's & ASU who have some decent wins but staggeringly bad losses is tough.
Hadn't looked at it as much this year because it wasn't an issue for MU or my #2 team, Arizona (talk about awful this year). Will never happen, but maybe time to contract the field back to 64?
Quote from: Eye on March 15, 2019, 08:07:36 AM
Hadn't looked at it as much this year because it wasn't an issue for MU or my #2 team, Arizona (talk about awful this year). Will never happen, but maybe time to contract the field back to 64?
More likely it would expand. I say add 4 teams, go to 72, and the last 16 at large bids play at Dayton & another site (maybe Omaha?) on Tuesday & Wednesday. That way every autobid gets to play Thursday/Friday & the play in games would all actually feature somewhat higher quality matchups.
Quote from: Eye on March 15, 2019, 08:07:36 AM
Hadn't looked at it as much this year because it wasn't an issue for MU or my #2 team, Arizona (talk about awful this year). Will never happen, but maybe time to contract the field back to 64?
Not gonna happen. Money talks, that's why they went from 1 PIG to 4. If anything I would like them to use the PIG to give more consideration to the one bid leagues where the regular season champion was pretty good but just had an off night in the conference tournament. The best part of the tournament is giving those long shots a chance.
I would be surprised if SJU misses the tournament.
Completely agree on that last point Monster. I'm all for giving the Furman, NC Greensboro and Hofstra's of the world shots in those games than teams that are under .500 in their leagues and barely over .500 overall.
Edit - And I guess I'm seeing a path to a 4 seed now, too, if things go right the next 2 days. On some level just avoid Duke with a healthy Williamson as long as possible.
Last season's Marquette team would be a 9 seed this season?
For the love of God can we stop referring to Howie Schwab like he has any idea what he is doing?
I disagree with a decent amount of Brew's bracket (I think SJU is in) and I guarantee he puts more work and time into it than Howie Schwab. The guy has no idea what he's doing.
I love love love that I don't have to care about the bubble this year!!
Not saying we shouldn't have these conversations here. That's what a fan site is for. Just saying that, personally, it's so nice to be worrying about more than if my Warriors are gonna dance.
Ahhhh. 8-)
Quote from: MUeagle1090 on March 15, 2019, 09:56:51 AM
For the love of God can we stop referring to Howie Schwab like he has any idea what he is doing?
I disagree with a decent amount of Brew's bracket (I think SJU is in) and I guarantee he puts more work and time into it than Howie Schwab. The guy has no idea what he's doing.
He is a FS1/BTN guy! I'm for promoting him.
Quote from: MUeagle1090 on March 15, 2019, 09:56:51 AM
For the love of God can we stop referring to Howie Schwab like he has any idea what he is doing?
I disagree with a decent amount of Brew's bracket (I think SJU is in) and I guarantee he puts more work and time into it than Howie Schwab. The guy has no idea what he's doing.
I expect I will be really right or really wrong when it comes to the bubble. If this was last year's committee, I would likely have NC State, Creighton, & Indiana in and UNCG, Furman, & Lipscomb out.
St John's would be the lowest ranked high major per kenpom to get an at large & their NET would be lower than the previous lowest RPI. I could easily be wrong on some high majors depending on how this SC makeup behaves, but I think MU fans are overrating their chances because of our bad memories of them. Poor non-con, bad conference losses, unprecedentedly low computer numbers. And from a Selection Committee with more mid & low majors than any time since 2013? We'll see.
Quote from: MUeagle1090 on March 15, 2019, 09:56:51 AM
For the love of God can we stop referring to Howie Schwab like he has any idea what he is doing?
I disagree with a decent amount of Brew's bracket (I think SJU is in) and I guarantee he puts more work and time into it than Howie Schwab. The guy has no idea what he's doing.
They interviewed him last night and he said that the Johnnies have too many bad losses and a weak OOC to go with their good wins. Namely their DePaul losses and finishing 9-11 in conference. Like him or not, SJU is teetering on the bubble.
Quote from: Dr. Blackheart on March 15, 2019, 10:38:52 AM
They interviewed him last night and he said that the Johnnies have too many bad losses and a weak OOC to go with their good wins. Namely their DePaul losses and finishing 9-11 in conference. Like him or not, SJU is teetering on the bubble.
Sure. And that's fine. They definitely aren't safe. But there are literally 100 better bracketologists that we could be referencing.
It's like using Bleacher Report for your main supply of sports news.
Quote from: MUeagle1090 on March 15, 2019, 10:58:29 AM
Sure. And that's fine. They definitely aren't safe. But there are literally 100 better bracketologists that we could be referencing.
It's like using Bleacher Report for your main supply of sports news.
Jaybee is to crystal ball as MUeagle1090 is to _________
Well, if you are a bubble team. You are pulling for Nevada. VCU. Washington/Arizona State.
Quote from: brewcity77 on March 15, 2019, 10:25:13 AM
I expect I will be really right or really wrong when it comes to the bubble. If this was last year's committee, I would likely have NC State, Creighton, & Indiana in and UNCG, Furman, & Lipscomb out.
St John's would be the lowest ranked high major per kenpom to get an at large & their NET would be lower than the previous lowest RPI. I could easily be wrong on some high majors depending on how this SC makeup behaves, but I think MU fans are overrating their chances because of our bad memories of them. Poor non-con, bad conference losses, unprecedentedly low computer numbers. And from a Selection Committee with more mid & low majors than any time since 2013? We'll see.
If anyone wants the over on 2.5 bids out of Belmont, Furman, UNCG and Lipscomb, I am in. 3 could happen, but I am willing to bet that it wont.
Quote from: Frenns Liquor Depot on March 15, 2019, 11:00:03 AM
Jaybee is to crystal ball as MUeagle1090 is to _________
I laughed. I've complained enough for one day. I promise this won't turn into a Ners/Wades level obsession.
Some of the early results of these conference tournaments not good for the big east. A10 will have multiple bids after VCU loss. Florida likely getting in after beating LSU.
Looks like only 3 (4 if Xavier wins)
Quote from: Mr. Nielsen on March 15, 2019, 10:20:06 AM
He is a FS1/BTN guy! I'm for promoting him.
Do they have a suggestion box? Need to submit one to get rid of that clown
Quote from: NickelDimer on March 15, 2019, 02:21:58 PM
Do they have a suggestion box? Need to submit one to get rid of that clown
Why get rid of him. He is a brand name.
Quote from: AirPunch on March 15, 2019, 02:04:41 PM
Some of the early results of these conference tournaments not good for the big east. A10 will have multiple bids after VCU loss. Florida likely getting in after beating LSU.
Looks like only 3 (4 if Xavier wins)
Florida was getting in anyway. VCU should be in, but they've feasted on bad teams all year. The A10 isn't good this year. 9 of their 25 wins are Q3 or Q4. Questionable losses to Rhode Island 2x, Charleston, Old Dominion. They will and should get in, but they very well may be an 11 seed.
Quote from: Mr. Nielsen on March 15, 2019, 02:23:27 PM
Why get rid of him. He is a brand name.
Because he's incredibly unlikable. They can do better. I don't know that I've met anyone that enjoys his shtick or views him as all that insightful
Quote from: Mr. Nielsen on March 15, 2019, 02:23:27 PM
Why get rid of him. He is a brand name.
I don't know that his brand is actually attracting any viewers. Maybe if it was 10 years ago.
Well, I hear him on radio shows. I'm sure that is because of his brand. Maybe, FOX got a good cost out of it as well. Who knows.
I think the current appearance of the poll results is a fair and accurate visual representation of what the selection committee is going to say to the Big East on Sunday -- just rotate it counter-clockwise 90 degrees.
Quote from: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on March 15, 2019, 02:25:52 PM
Florida was getting in anyway. VCU should be in, but they've feasted on bad teams all year. The A10 isn't good this year. 9 of their 25 wins are Q3 or Q4. Questionable losses to Rhode Island 2x, Charleston, Old Dominion. They will and should get in, but they very well may be an 11 seed.
Yeah I hope this just bumps them up so we don't potentially have to play them as a 12 if we get a 5
Quote from: Mr. Nielsen on March 15, 2019, 02:23:27 PM
Why get rid of him. He is a brand name.
Brand name? His claim to fame is where he served as a know it all douche on a game show 15 years ago.
Quote from: Fluffy Blue Monster on March 15, 2019, 04:21:44 PM
Brand name? His claim to fame is where he served as a know it all douche on a game show 15 years ago.
By your answer. Brand name. ;)
Quote from: Dr. Blackheart on March 15, 2019, 10:38:52 AM
They interviewed him last night and he said that the Johnnies have too many bad losses and a weak OOC to go with their good wins. Namely their DePaul losses and finishing 9-11 in conference. Like him or not, SJU is teetering on the bubble.
Howie also a St. John's grad. It may be a situation of him being critical to avoid the appearance of bias or going with a gut feeling as a fan. It's going to be a long few days in Queens for sure.
The one thing that might help SJ is that they lost to DePaul without Ponds and Providence without Heron, but I don't know if the committee takes those facts into account.
Would this punch X's ticket?
Quote from: 1SE on March 15, 2019, 07:25:33 PM
Would this punch X's ticket?
They need two more wins. Autobid or bust.
And then there were indeed four.
Gifted